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Latest Posts By Arbitrager - Senior      About Arbitrager
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10-Oct-2008 11:27 Others   /   Technical recession!!       Go to Message
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Subprime woes felt in asia... more coming..

Japanese insurer Yamato Life files for bankruptcy in Tokyo

By Chris Oliver
Last update: 10:27 p.m. EDT Oct. 9, 2008
HONG KONG -- Japanese insurer Yamato Life Insurance Co. filed for bankruptcy protection from creditors Friday, reportedly becoming the first in the industry to do so in seven years. The insurer said recent declines in the value of its securities holdings had impaired its balance sheet, with liabilities exceeding assets by 11.49 billion yen ($116.02 million), according to wire reports citing comments by a company spokesman at a press briefing Friday. Yamato had assets totaling 283.1 billion yen ($2.86 billion) and policies worth 1.075 trillion yen at the end of the fiscal year through March 2008, according to a report by the Nikkei newspaper. Yamato's bankruptcy filing ranks as the fifth-largest corporate failure in Japan this year. End of Story
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08-Oct-2008 19:29 Others   /   Where to put money if market is like this .....       Go to Message
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gold is trading at 912 liao... up from 860... should be able to touch 1000 when more central banks try to fiddle with their monetary policies..

Arbitrager      ( Date: 06-Oct-2008 22:57) Posted:



i would recommend buying gold now.. in such financial crisis.. i will prefer to hold gold cert or physical gold.. and investing some spot gold for trading..

no point putting my $$ in the bank to earn miserable interest.. avoid properties... it still high and properties tends to lag behind macros due to price stickiness.. we can start to see prop prices tumbling down when unemployment figures rises..

now, any properties u have can be sold for a profit better sell fast if not have to hold for another 5-7yrs before economy recovers.. unless u have the abilities to pay for the mthly and have spare cash set aside for emergency.

caveat emptor applies.. above r my views of the economy... i dun see any lights in front of the tunnel.. we jus abt to enter the tunnel.

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08-Oct-2008 19:13 Others   /   DOW       Go to Message
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Dow futures rebound strongly from -300 to +200...

Coordinated global cuts

Fed, BOE, ECB, others cut interest rates

By William L. Watts
Last update: 7:07 a.m. EDT Oct. 8, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and other major central banks cut interest rates Wednesday in a coordinated move to head off a major global slump. The Federal Reserve cut its key lending rate a half-point to 1.5%, while the ECB cut its key rate a half point to 3.75%. The Bank of England also cut its key rate by a half point to 4.5%. End of Story
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08-Oct-2008 18:47 ShareJunction   /   U.S. economy into recession for the next two years       Go to Message
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Money-Market Rates Rise to Records as Bank Paralysis Worsens


By Gavin Finch

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- European money-market rates climbed to records as banks balked at lending amid speculation more financial institutions will collapse.

The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, that banks charge each other for three-month loans in the currency increased 1 basis point to an all-time high of 5.39 percent today, the European Banking Federation said. The two-week rate jumped to a record 5.04 percent. The European Central Bank offered one-day dollar loans at 9.5 percent today, 556 basis points higher than yesterday's overnight rate.

``We're clearly in a situation of excess pessimism and it's very difficult to see what can really jolt these markets out of the current malaise,'' said Sean Maloney, a fixed-income strategist in London at Nomura International Plc.

Interbank lending rates have soared as financial institutions store cash to meet anticipated funding needs, defying the efforts of central banks around the world to revive the frozen credit markets. The U.K. said today it plans to invest about 50 billion pounds ($87 billion) in an unprecedented step to stave off a collapse of the country's banking system.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for overnight loans in dollars surged 157 basis points yesterday to 3.94 percent, underscoring the difficulty that banks are having in borrowing even for a day. The corresponding rate for euros climbed 22 basis points to 4.49 percent.

ECB Auction

Libor, set by 16 banks in a daily survey by the British Bankers' Association at about noon in London, determines rates on $360 trillion of financial products worldwide, from home loans to derivatives. Member banks provide estimates on how much it would cost to borrow in 10 currencies for periods ranging from a day to a year. Euribor, set in a survey of more than 30 institutions by the European Banking Federation, is published about 90 minutes earlier.

The Frankfurt-based ECB said it loaned banks $70 billion of one-day loans today, up from $50 billion yesterday. Banks bid for $122 billion. The 9.5 percent marginal rate at which 96 percent of the funds were borrowed compares with yesterday's Libor of 3.94 percent and the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2 percent.

The deepening credit crisis forced the U.K to join the U.S., Ireland, Iceland, Belgium and Spain in rushing out untested bailout measures to save banks. As part of the plan, Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government will buy preference shares, and the Bank of England will make at least 200 billion pounds available for banks to borrow under a so-called special liquidity plan, the Treasury said in a statement today.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Barclays Plc said they plan to participate in the government rescue.

Libor-OIS Spread

The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of cash scarcity among banks that measures the difference between the three-month dollar rate and the overnight indexed swap rate, increased to 294 basis points today. It was at 167 basis points two weeks ago and 81 basis points a month ago.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled yesterday policy makers are ready to lower interest rates as the credit freeze poses an escalating danger to the economy.

The world financial system is under ``extraordinary stress'' and history shows that severe instability ``can take a heavy toll on the broader economy if left unchecked,'' Bernanke said in a speech in Washington. ``The Fed will need to consider whether the current stance of policy remains appropriate.''

Ted Spread

President George W. Bush signed a $700 billion U.S. bailout bill into law last week to help stem the crisis, which has claimed financial companies including Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The legislation enables the government to purchase tainted assets from institutions. European leaders meeting in Paris over the weekend pledged to bail out their own nations' banks, while stopping short of a regional rescue effort.

The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, was at 355 basis points. It reached 393 basis points two days ago, then the most since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 1984.

Writedowns and losses worldwide tied to the U.S. mortgage market have reached $592 billion since the start of last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net Last Updated: October 8, 2008 06:01 EDT
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08-Oct-2008 17:54 ShareJunction   /   U.S. economy into recession for the next two years       Go to Message
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we can feel this somewhere near us tooo... Japan having such problems too le... i think more to come.. got $$ better put aside for rainy days.. we going into a deep gloomy recession soon... it will be something worse than the 1930s.

Japan Bankruptcies Climb at Fastest Pace in 8 Years (Update3)


By Toru Fujioka

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's corporate bankruptcies jumped 34 percent last month, the fastest pace in eight years, as exports slumped and credit-market turmoil engulfed the world's second-largest economy.

Bankruptcies rose to 1,408 cases in September from the same month a year earlier, Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd. said in a report in Tokyo today. That's the biggest jump since March 2000, when cases rose 38.6 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled 9.4 percent, the biggest rout since October 1987, on concern the global credit crisis will prolong the economy's stagnation. Corporate failures are rising at the steepest rate since Japan's banking crisis in 2000 as the credit shortage deprives businesses of cash.

``We're in the middle of a recession,'' said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. ``Real-estate and construction companies have been in a mini- bubble over the last few years because of all that money coming from abroad. Now that's withdrawn.''

The yen surged beyond 100 per dollar for the first time in six months after a plunge in Asian stocks prompted investors to reduce holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in Japan. The currency traded at 100.07 per dollar as of 5:03 p.m. in Tokyo. The Nikkei slumped to 9,203.32, the lowest since June 2003.

Human21 Corp. led a 31 percent increase in the number of real estate agents that went bust last month, today's report showed. The four biggest bankruptcies among publicly traded companies this year were all real-estate firms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. Construction bankruptcies increased 41 percent in September.

Property Slump

Banks cut lending as growth in Japan's property market slowed and the collapse of the subprime market in the U.S. kept potential buyers from making acquisitions. Developers are also being squeezed by higher prices for steel and other raw materials used in construction, and by a change in building-approval regulations in June 2007 that slowed applications.

The credit crisis is spreading to other industries, with smaller companies saying they are having a harder time securing funds needed to grow at a time when the economy is on the verge of a recession.

``It's definitely going to spread. Logically speaking it has to happen because exports are declining and we'll see a sharper decline in external demand,'' JPMorgan's Adachi said.

Failures in manufacturing rose 44 percent, Tokyo Shoko said. Transportation industry bankruptcies surged 133 percent, and in finance and insurance climbed 56 percent.

Lending `Severe'

``An increasing number of small firms have reported that their financial positions are weak, and lending attitudes of financial institutions are severe,'' the Bank of Japan said in its monthly economic assessment today. ``Certain industries have faced a worsening in funding conditions, as conditions for their bond issuance have deteriorated and financial institutions have become more cautious in extending credit.''

Companies that went bankrupt last month employed a total of 16,887 workers, the most this year, Tokyo Shoko said. Japan's unemployment rate climbed to 4.2 percent in August, the highest in two years.

Total liabilities rose to 5.36 trillion yen last month, the second highest in the postwar period, the report said, after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s Japan unit filed for bankruptcy in the country's second-biggest corporate collapse.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo at lnonomiya@bloomberg.net Last Updated: October 8, 2008 04:07 EDT
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08-Oct-2008 14:14 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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seems like most major indices like Dow, Nikkei, S&P, Nasdaq etc has retreated to 4-5yrs low.. if STI were to retreat to 5yrs low, we can expect STI to go as low as 1500-1600pts..

Economy is not turning any better after the 700b bailout and crying wall street babies are asking for 100bsp rate cut.. which i deems to have minimal positive impact to current economy... and in my opinion, i dun think benanke will wan to do anything to the fed rate as it might poise another major problem... and it wil be too much for them to handle.
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08-Oct-2008 13:18 Others   /   this is where the bailout package goes to...       Go to Message
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AIG execs' retreat after bailout angers lawmakers

By ANDREW TAYLOR,Associated Press Writer AP

WASHINGTON - Days after it got a federal bailout, American International Group Inc. spent $440,000 on a posh California retreat for its executives, complete with spa treatments, banquets and golf outings, according to lawmakers investigating the company's meltdown.

AIG sent its executives to the coastal St. Regis resort south of Los Angeles even as the company tapped into an $85 billion loan from the government it needed to stave off bankruptcy. The resort tab included $23,380 worth of spa treatments for AIG employees, according to invoices the resort turned over to the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

The retreat didn't include anyone from the financial products division that nearly drove AIG under, but lawmakers still were enraged over thousands of dollars spent on outing for executives of AIG's main U.S. life insurance subsidiary.

"Average Americans are suffering economically. They're losing their jobs, their homes and their health insurance," the committee's chairman, Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., scolded the company during a lengthy opening statement at a hearing Tuesday. "Yet less than one week after the taxpayers rescued AIG, company executives could be found wining and dining at one of the most exclusive resorts in the nation."

Former AIG CEO Robert Willumstad, who lost his job a day after the Federal Reserve put up the $85 billion on Sept. 16, said he was not familiar with the conference and would not have gone along with it.

"It seems very inappropriate," Willumstad said in response to questioning from Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Md.

"Those executives should be fired," Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama said at a debate with Sen. John McCain on Tuesday, referring to the retreat participants. Obama also said AIG should give the Treasury $440,000 to cover the costs of the retreat.

But Eric Dinallo, superintendent of the New York State Insurance Department, said he could see the value of such a retreat under the circumstances.

"Having been at large global companies and knowing what condition AIG was in ... the absolute worst thing that could have happened" would have been for employees and underwriters in its life insurance subsidiary to flee the company.

"I do agree there is some profligate spending there, but the concept of bringing all the major employees together ... to ensure that the $85 billion could be as greatly as possible paid back would have been not a crazy corporate decision," Dinallo told the House committee.

The hearing disclosed that AIG executives hid the full range of its risky financial products from auditors as losses mounted, according to documents released by the committee, which is examining the chain of events that forced the government to bail out the conglomerate.

The panel sharply criticized AIG's former top executives, who cast blame on each other for the company's financial woes.

"You have cost my constituents and the taxpayers of this country $85 billion and run into the ground one of the most respected insurance companies in the history of our country," said Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y. "You were just gambling billions, possibly trillions of dollars."

AIG, crippled by huge losses linked to mortgage defaults, was forced last month to accept the $85 billion government loan that gives the U.S. the right to an 80 percent stake in the company.

Waxman unveiled documents showing AIG executives hid the full extent of the firm's risky financial products from auditors, both outside and inside the firm, as losses mounted.

For instance, federal regulators at the Office of Thrift Supervision warned in March that "corporate oversight of AIG Financial Products ... lack critical elements of independence." At the same time, PricewaterhouseCoopers confidentially warned the company that the "root cause" of its mounting problems was denying internal overseers in charge of limiting AIG's exposure access to what was going on in its highly leveraged financial products branch.

Waxman also released testimony from former AIG auditor Joseph St. Denis, who resigned after being blocked from giving his input on how the firm estimated its liabilities.

Three former AIG executives were summoned to appear before the hearing. One of them, Maurice "Hank" Greenberg _ who ran AIG for 38 years until 2005 _ canceled his appearance citing illness but submitted prepared testimony. In it, he blamed the company's financial woes on his successors, former CEOs Martin Sullivan and Willumstad.

"When I left AIG, the company operated in 130 countries and employed approximately 92,000 people," Greenberg said. "Today, the company we built up over almost four decades has been virtually destroyed."

Sullivan and Willumstad, in turn, cast much of the blame on accounting rules that forced AIG to take tens of billions of dollars in losses stemming from exposure to toxic mortgage-related securities.

Lawmakers also upbraided Sullivan, who ran the firm from 2005 until June of this year, for urging AIG's board of directors to waive pay guidelines to win a $5 million bonus for 2007 _ even as the company lost $5 billion in the 4th quarter of that year. Sullivan countered that he was mainly concerned with helping other senior executives.

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06-Oct-2008 22:57 Others   /   Where to put money if market is like this .....       Go to Message
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i would recommend buying gold now.. in such financial crisis.. i will prefer to hold gold cert or physical gold.. and investing some spot gold for trading..

no point putting my $$ in the bank to earn miserable interest.. avoid properties... it still high and properties tends to lag behind macros due to price stickiness.. we can start to see prop prices tumbling down when unemployment figures rises..

now, any properties u have can be sold for a profit better sell fast if not have to hold for another 5-7yrs before economy recovers.. unless u have the abilities to pay for the mthly and have spare cash set aside for emergency.

caveat emptor applies.. above r my views of the economy... i dun see any lights in front of the tunnel.. we jus abt to enter the tunnel.
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30-Sep-2008 10:26 Others   /   What will fed do next???       Go to Message
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I dun think Fed will cut rate by 25bsp cos now its not longer got to do with i/r. So wat if Fed cut rate to 0%, ppl wil still price in a risk premium of 8-10% above overnight lending rate to lend out $$. Banks business rely on trust and confidence and this is wat they are lacking at this time, no becos its Fed rate is too high or wat.

Its going to be the darkest moments in US history as this crisis is no where near the bottom. If you look back at the Asian financial crisis, comparing the current one with that, it gonna be many times worse than that.
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30-Sep-2008 10:13 Others   /   things every retail investor/trader should know       Go to Message
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Hi bros.. since a long time i m active at sharejunction. can really feel the jittery in the market. everyone is expecting the 700b bailout to be passed. 2 reasons y its not being passed, firstly its a ultra big moral hazard for the lawmakers to pass this bill as earlier the main street were asking the lawmakers to pass a $150b bill to improve the social healthcare in US for all ppl and they rejected it for the reason "NO MONEY". and now those fat cats in wall street in deep shit they created, they asking for $700b bailout plan to help them out which will be proven useless to savage the situation. (Estimated it need at least $1tri to buy out all trash in the mkt) Wat make you think its wise for the lawmakers to pass thru it. if they were to pass thru it eventually, the next bomb you will see is the default in personal credit.

Secondly, US is already in trillions of sovereign debts. How the US lawmakers going to finance this bailout? by printing more fiat money and adding more sovereign debts to finance this futile effort to bailout these failing banks. The last thing we wan to see is the default in US govt. Its going to be a bottomless pit if they keep pumping in money to brace the stock market. What they are doing is not really solving the underlying problems.

We are also starting to see banks failing in europe side and it just the beginning.. Do maintain cautious and this market is going to wash out many investors in the mkt.
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18-Mar-2008 13:44 Others   /   Bear Stearns US$2       Go to Message
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yes. its not permitted in US due to legality issue. If i am not wrong, its becos ppl have been borrowing the same pool of shares and shorted mulitple times in the mkt causing alot of 'counterfeit" shares. Paulson did mentioned abt this issue during one of his recent speech in front of the Congress.

shorting is not applicable for retail for sure but for insti/ hedge funds i am not sure if they have their means to short. thats y CFD and other derivatives ie warrants, options etc...are available in US for shorting.

in HK, Shorting has to be declared bu i guess singapore is still relatively lax on the regulations.
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18-Mar-2008 11:54 Biosensors   /   Is Biosensors a good buy?       Go to Message
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I REPEAT AGAIN:

SELL!!! SELL!!! SELL!!!

TP: $0.55, I based this on the company' current P&L losses and its ability to go back into profit in the near future.. as well as factoring the current market sentiments. If the economic condition continue to deteriorate, the TP can be going even lower..

Dun be overbullish on pharmaceutical and medical device companies.. there are so many such coys going bust without none of us noticing.. I am not implying biosensor will go bust now.. but i m just stating the nature of the sectors and coys similar to BIG.

Caveat emptor applies.. Do your own research on ur own. dun be blinded by the CE thingy. if its something so great, this burger will be selling like hot cakes with prices soaring rocket high despite the mkt sentiments. Refer to my earlier posts. I have been calling for SELL since 90c till now. See wat the price now? if you thinking of holding long term, this current price is definitely not the good level to sit in... more downside to come..

Its gonna be my last time saying on this counter. buyer beware. Just feel sad that so many ignorance newbies kanna burnt by this counter.
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17-Mar-2008 19:17 Others   /   Bear Stearns US$2       Go to Message
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FYI, u cant short US market.. Well EVEN now is not the right time to buy in for financials.. I am sure we have a big time bomb clicking in ASIA. Somewhere near us and if it explode.. it will definitely be very destructive and impairing to its neighbouring countries...

Well you guys can wait and see if my predication turn into reality..

Stock market now is treacherous, exercise addtional care when trading..
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17-Mar-2008 10:21 Biosensors   /   Is Biosensors a good buy?       Go to Message
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I have said wat I need and want to say weeks before le.. but then seems like ppl r too bullish to listen to my SELL call... Stay sideline if u r still considering buying.. I think it will go down to 55c.. Long Funds will only come in to buy when they see value.. but apparently, now they stil dun see any value.. or mayb the the current price to higher than that "inherent" value.

Caveat emptor applies.. Just a general reminder.. remain sideline if u dun have any long position.. the mkt is not bottoming out any time now.. still got quite a long way down..
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15-Mar-2008 01:50 Others   /   DOW       Go to Message
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Sell on strength or rally from now on.. Being calling for selling since Jan. Its a disaster we nv seen before.. bigger and worse than 97 Asian financial crisis, dot.com bubble.. Most banks, funds and bond insurers will be coming out to ask for help/bailout from fed. I wan to see how deep is their pocket.. Like i said, it just the tip of the iceberg and more uglier things will be surfacing soon...

I dun think there will be any rate cut rally if fed cut 50-75bsp. US will be selling on confirmation.. More downside for construction, property, shipping and fiancial sectors/counters.

caveat captor applies.
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14-Mar-2008 17:33 COSCO SHP SG   /   CoscoCorp       Go to Message
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Cosco Singapore Denies Talk Of Accounting Troubles (2008-03-14

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Cosco Corp. Singapore Ltd (F83.SG) said Friday it has no accounting problems, debunking talk among traders that the shipbuilder may have issues with its books.

"We are so sure we don''t have any accounting problems," company president Ji Hai Sheng told Dow Jones Newswires.

"People are concerned about forex. Cosco Corporation and Cosco Shipyard do not do any forex trades. We only do hedging. Really we do not have any problems with foreign exchange. Some companies like Labroy (Marine) may have foreign exchange losses. We don''t have to take any risk like that," Ji said.

Some dealers blamed unspecified rumors about accounting irregularities for Cosco''s share price weakness Friday, bucking gains by most other stocks on the benchmark Straits Times Index.

Cosco''s stock has been falling of late as investors fear the company''s margins may weaken due to higher steel prices.

At 0755 GMT, the shares were trading at S$3.02, down 0.7%.

-By Frankie Ho, Dow Jones Newswires; 65 6415 4160; frankie.ho@dowjones.com
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11-Mar-2008 23:06 Others   /   Dollar for trash.. anyone?       Go to Message
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Fed Chairman Benny Wimpy just opened his 1st pawnshop in US paying out greenback for trash.. "I have $200billion to burn, come exchange your trash for cash!! Whilst cash lasts!!" Shout by Benny.
Benny in his favourite helicopter... pouring $$$ into the stock market


 
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11-Mar-2008 19:46 Others   /   Oil Price Rage       Go to Message
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Oil futures hit record as euro climbs on Weber remarks
LONDON -- Oil futures hit a record for the fifth straight day, reaching as high as $109.20 a barrel despite the International Energy Agency trimming its forecast for world oil demand. With German Bundesbank President Axel Weber saying a high CPI leaves no leeway for rate cuts at the European Central Bank, the euro climbed to $1.5479, helping carry oil along with it. Oil futures were recently trading up 84 cents to $108.81 a barrel.
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11-Mar-2008 18:00 Biosensors   /   Is Biosensors a good buy?       Go to Message
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ekekg, for your easy reference.

Arbitrager
Member
Posted: 07-Mar-2008 16:54
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* Alert Admin


wow.. hit 0.74 already.. hopefully all "small" not ardent big supporters unloaded by then at 80+c.. and "good" news for people who wan to buy it.. cos its cheaper now.. I think i can get cheaper at 64c. i think closing will be 0.735..

not vested. good luck..

Arbitrager
Member
Posted: 03-Mar-2008 17:27
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* Alert Admin


Well like i mentioned eariler.. this stock is actively traded by short-term traders.. no interest from long term BBs. seems like traders are getting sick of this counter.. well fret not.. this counter is still well-liked by retails.. I am sure we have quite a handful of ardent supporters here.

good luck for those vested.. more bargain hunting for those who want to hold BIG in the coming days.

29-Feb-2008 10:47 Biosensors   /   Is Biosensors a good buy?
Arbitrager
Member


this counter is died.. how to cheong when no insti interest?? and the news of emloyee share option is no good news at all... its dilutive by nature and its definitely not good news for existing shareholders.. lesser EPS and anyway BIG is not profitable yet..

I dun think it will stay above 80c
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11-Mar-2008 17:58 Biosensors   /   Is Biosensors a good buy?       Go to Message
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hi ekekg,

If you saw my previous advice on for BI, I have been asking ppl to take profit or cut loss since 90+ cents till now.. but seems like people still v bullish and optimistic on this counter. Well wat need to be said, i already done so.. Really sad to see more ppl kanna burnt by this counter. I can tell u that it still not over.. more to come. if u notice my TP for BIG has been very well inline.. I foresee it going down to low 50c. but of cos some support at 64c region.

Do your own research before making any BUY/SELL decision.

caveat emptor applies.
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