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Thanks to all for sharing your insights. This is from Citi bank ..
DJ MARKET TALK: SPH Is Attractive High-Yield Stock - Citi (2006-10-13 01:23:00)
0924 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: SPH''s (T39.SG) 4Q net profit of S$71 million short of our S$83 million forecast due to higher-than-expected operating expenses as firm invested in new media initiatives, but revenues in line with expectations, says Citigroup. Says final dividend of 8 cents and special dividend of 9 cents, with total dividends amounting to 24 cts for year higher than Citi''s forecast of 22.5 cts. "We view SPH as an attractive high-yield stock with recovering earnings growth." Keeps Buy call and S$5.04 target. Stock off 0.5% at S$4.16.(SMG)
ChipChip66
It is the intention of many people to let go at 4.30/4.35. The question is that can this stock reach that price?
Wishful thinking
It is the intention of many people to let go at 4.30/4.35. The question is that can this stock reach that price?
Wishful thinking
Hi ChipChip & allan,
thx for the insight view, indeed I hope this is the opportunity for me to average down the price too.
cheers
thx for the insight view, indeed I hope this is the opportunity for me to average down the price too.
cheers
Hi, Onghuihui, my advice is to let go at around $4.30-$4.35 and buy back later!
Seems all within expectation. Net profit $428.5m is pretty much in line with what market has expected. Final dividend of $0.17 is slightly above forecast of $0.15. I believe the results have been factored into SPH's closing price. Do not expect big movement.
Would appreciate comments on whether PRICE will be UP or DOWN tomorrow not that the result is out. Pse share the rational. Thanks.
The Directors of SPH have proposed a Final Dividend of 17 cents per share,
comprising a Normal Dividend of 8 cents per share and a Special Dividend of 9
cents per share in respect of the financial year ended 31 August 2006. These
dividends are on tax-exempt (one-tier) basis and will be paid on 22 December
2006. Together with the Interim Dividend paid during the year, total Dividend
payout for FY 2006 will be 24 cents.
17 cents div not too bad la =)
comprising a Normal Dividend of 8 cents per share and a Special Dividend of 9
cents per share in respect of the financial year ended 31 August 2006. These
dividends are on tax-exempt (one-tier) basis and will be paid on 22 December
2006. Together with the Interim Dividend paid during the year, total Dividend
payout for FY 2006 will be 24 cents.
17 cents div not too bad la =)
Prefer Strategy: Trade with the trend - your friend. "AKA as Mr Market"
The key was that the investor could take advantage of Mr. Market's daily quote or choose to ignore it because Mr. Market would always return with a new one.
A smart investor was able to see past Mr. Market's manic-depressive moments and analyze whether the business being quoted had really changed or whether perhaps Mr. Market was acting up again.
Since, we are not as SMART as Warren Buffet, nither we are talking abt the US market mentality. Guess averaging is one of the proven strategy for Singapore market =)
The key was that the investor could take advantage of Mr. Market's daily quote or choose to ignore it because Mr. Market would always return with a new one.
A smart investor was able to see past Mr. Market's manic-depressive moments and analyze whether the business being quoted had really changed or whether perhaps Mr. Market was acting up again.
Since, we are not as SMART as Warren Buffet, nither we are talking abt the US market mentality. Guess averaging is one of the proven strategy for Singapore market =)
Hi OnghuiH, what you said also make sense.... thank you for sharing.
oh yea, one more point. On Friday morning, if the price is down 3 bids (or down any nos of bids aginst u), is better to exit. Don't wait for it to fall to the near historical low again .......
Not say I want to say. Buy and hold is a lousy strategy. One must have entry and exit startegy. If not, that's why people ended up buying at 4.96 and when price drop to 3.86, they are still holding.
And like some of you are aware, $4 stock involve sizable investment. Averaging up Averaging down is not going the be affordable for many.
Prefer Strategy: Trade with the trend - your friend. Have a clear entry and exist strategy will ensure less money are on the table at anyone time. In case of market collapse, will losse less ........
I also invested since so many of you are very positive of this stock. Other than Capitaland and Keppel Land, this is the only "expensive" ( I mean $4 to $5 in share price) that I buy into.... I think will follow YongJiu's strategy.......
Hi,
I am not sure about this counter because it is expensive stock and I usually buy penny stock. But I can share we you that the recent acquired of Hardware website and magazine is going to increase their advertisement income. I have work with Jeremy and the team (former Hardware group), their income revenue is strictly from IT gadgets advertisement, seminar and ordering page space in the Website hit rate plus Magazine viewing etc. This is a very smart move by SPH, thus I think they are going to control all the branded magazines in Singapore ,just like HerWorld and others etc !
I'm long with this counter...
so it doesn't matter which ever way it come.
If go south, I'm happily collecting some more at bargain.
If go north, I'm happily de-vest some of it.
If go no where, I zo boh only =)
so it doesn't matter which ever way it come.
If go south, I'm happily collecting some more at bargain.
If go north, I'm happily de-vest some of it.
If go no where, I zo boh only =)
Let see tomorrow who is rite. Right now, anyone can say anything they want. Some other recent reports:|
----------------
6 Oct 06. DBS Vickers ups SPH (T39.SG) to Buy from Hold, raises target price to S$4.78 from S$4.42; says stock "is now trading at attractive valuations given the good dividend yields and earnings boost from The Times Development site"
29 Sep 06: Citigroup raises SPH (T39.SG) FY08 net profit forecast by 8% to S$488.6 million.
UOB-KayHian
Singapore Press Holdings: FY06 results preview
Typical share price rally just before release of final results. Share price
rallied from S$4.04 to S$4.24 (+5%) over the last two weeks. This is within our
expectation. SPH?s share price typically has a run-up in the few weeks leading
to the release of its final results, in anticipation of the final dividend. The
company will be announcing its FY06 results on Thursday after market close.
We expect a final 1-Tier tax-exempt DPS of 15 cents (1HFY06 interim: 7 cents).
It would appear that share price has already discounted the final dividend.
Advertising revenue growth remains weak. SPH is likely to report a weak
advertising revenue growth. According to ACNielsen data, SPH?s advertising
revenue (AR) growth was 1% in 4QFY06. There is no evidence of a pick-up
in 4QFY06 despite management's earlier assertion that 3QFY06's (Mar-May 06)
poor AR performance was because previous 3Q benefited from several
advertising campaigns that did not recur this year. Management has indicated
that Display AR was weak in 4QFY06, a spill-over from a weak 3QFY06.
Figure 1: AR Growth (%)
ACNielsen Data: SPH's Actual Figures:
1QFY06 (3.8) +2.2
2QFY06 (1.3) +3.0
3QFY06 (1.4) (1.0)
4QFY06 1.0 -
Expect lower earnings in 4QFY06 compared to 3QFY06. We are projecting
net profit (ex EI) of S$96.0m for 4QFY06, 9% lower than 3QFY06?s S$105.4m.
Seasonally, 4Q is weaker than 3Q. Furthermore, continued rising newsprint cost
would have eroded profit margins. For full year FY06, we are projecting net
profit (ex EI) of S$384.3m or S$453.5m including EI gains which were
recognised in the first nine months of FY06 (consensus: S$450.0m).
Maintain HOLD. SPH?s share price is closely linked to its AR growth. We
expect share price to trade in a tight band. Upside is capped by a weak AR
growth, but significant downside is unlikely as share price is supported by a high
net dividend yield of 5.2%. We maintain our target price of S$4.35, which is at
10% discount to our sum-of-the-parts valuation of S$4.85. Our entry level is
S$3.90 or below.
Singapore Press Holdings: FY06 results preview
Typical share price rally just before release of final results. Share price
rallied from S$4.04 to S$4.24 (+5%) over the last two weeks. This is within our
expectation. SPH?s share price typically has a run-up in the few weeks leading
to the release of its final results, in anticipation of the final dividend. The
company will be announcing its FY06 results on Thursday after market close.
We expect a final 1-Tier tax-exempt DPS of 15 cents (1HFY06 interim: 7 cents).
It would appear that share price has already discounted the final dividend.
Advertising revenue growth remains weak. SPH is likely to report a weak
advertising revenue growth. According to ACNielsen data, SPH?s advertising
revenue (AR) growth was 1% in 4QFY06. There is no evidence of a pick-up
in 4QFY06 despite management's earlier assertion that 3QFY06's (Mar-May 06)
poor AR performance was because previous 3Q benefited from several
advertising campaigns that did not recur this year. Management has indicated
that Display AR was weak in 4QFY06, a spill-over from a weak 3QFY06.
Figure 1: AR Growth (%)
ACNielsen Data: SPH's Actual Figures:
1QFY06 (3.8) +2.2
2QFY06 (1.3) +3.0
3QFY06 (1.4) (1.0)
4QFY06 1.0 -
Expect lower earnings in 4QFY06 compared to 3QFY06. We are projecting
net profit (ex EI) of S$96.0m for 4QFY06, 9% lower than 3QFY06?s S$105.4m.
Seasonally, 4Q is weaker than 3Q. Furthermore, continued rising newsprint cost
would have eroded profit margins. For full year FY06, we are projecting net
profit (ex EI) of S$384.3m or S$453.5m including EI gains which were
recognised in the first nine months of FY06 (consensus: S$450.0m).
Maintain HOLD. SPH?s share price is closely linked to its AR growth. We
expect share price to trade in a tight band. Upside is capped by a weak AR
growth, but significant downside is unlikely as share price is supported by a high
net dividend yield of 5.2%. We maintain our target price of S$4.35, which is at
10% discount to our sum-of-the-parts valuation of S$4.85. Our entry level is
S$3.90 or below.
SINGAPORE (XFN-ASIA) - Singapore Press
Holdings (SPH) is expected to report Thursday a net profit for its
financial year ended last August that was lower than the year before
because of smaller investment gains, higher operating costs and
sluggish revenue growth, analysts said.
Analysts polled by XFN-Asia forecast SPH's net profit at 372-453 mln sgd, compared to the 494.69 mln sgd it made the year before.
Citigroup analyst Lim Jit Soon said he expected SPH's net profit to be 372 mln sgd, excluding the exceptional gain the firm recognized in the financial third quarter. SPH had an exceptional gain of 69.1 mln sgd from the revaluation of its Paragon shopping mall here.
Lim expects revenue in SPH's core newspaper publishing business to be flat.
An analyst with a foreign brokerage said he expected SPH's net profit to be 386 mln sgd.
He said the growth in newspaper publishing was not as great as it used to be.
"Basically, revenue growth has been constrained because of competition from new media sources such as the Internet, as well as other outdoor advertising avenues," he said.
"Secondly, newsprint cost keeps going up, so it drops any leverage it has. "
Macquarie analyst Ramiz Chelat said: "We are expecting a net profit of 387 mln sgd this year (excluding exceptionals) -- less than last year, as they had a exceptional gains then. And this year, you also have declines in core operating business."
He said growth in the company's property investments would not be enough to offset the decline in newspaper publishing.
"We expect its property to contribute more to its earnings, but it is a relatively small contributor to its overall picture."
UOB Kay Hian analyst Nancy Wei said she expected SPH's net profit to be 453 mln sgd, including the exceptional gain.
"This is marginally lower than last year's due to higher costs, where newsprint costs have gone up, and also on weaker advertising revenues," Wei said.
Analysts said the highlight of SPH's results would be its dividend.
For the financial year ended August 2005, SPH declared a net dividend of 0.158 sgd per share.
Analysts are expecting the company to pay out the same amount this year.
SPH's interim dividend in the last financial year was 0.07 sgd.
Analysts polled by XFN-Asia forecast SPH's net profit at 372-453 mln sgd, compared to the 494.69 mln sgd it made the year before.
Citigroup analyst Lim Jit Soon said he expected SPH's net profit to be 372 mln sgd, excluding the exceptional gain the firm recognized in the financial third quarter. SPH had an exceptional gain of 69.1 mln sgd from the revaluation of its Paragon shopping mall here.
Lim expects revenue in SPH's core newspaper publishing business to be flat.
An analyst with a foreign brokerage said he expected SPH's net profit to be 386 mln sgd.
He said the growth in newspaper publishing was not as great as it used to be.
"Basically, revenue growth has been constrained because of competition from new media sources such as the Internet, as well as other outdoor advertising avenues," he said.
"Secondly, newsprint cost keeps going up, so it drops any leverage it has. "
Macquarie analyst Ramiz Chelat said: "We are expecting a net profit of 387 mln sgd this year (excluding exceptionals) -- less than last year, as they had a exceptional gains then. And this year, you also have declines in core operating business."
He said growth in the company's property investments would not be enough to offset the decline in newspaper publishing.
"We expect its property to contribute more to its earnings, but it is a relatively small contributor to its overall picture."
UOB Kay Hian analyst Nancy Wei said she expected SPH's net profit to be 453 mln sgd, including the exceptional gain.
"This is marginally lower than last year's due to higher costs, where newsprint costs have gone up, and also on weaker advertising revenues," Wei said.
Analysts said the highlight of SPH's results would be its dividend.
For the financial year ended August 2005, SPH declared a net dividend of 0.158 sgd per share.
Analysts are expecting the company to pay out the same amount this year.
SPH's interim dividend in the last financial year was 0.07 sgd.
The speculation of 15 cents for the year end dividend is a bit too low. End of the year dividend for 2005 was 15.8 cents.
It was reported that SPH is sitting on a one billion $ cash. It was also reported that this huge amount will cause a lot of accounting problems. Is SPH going to reward loyal shareholders?
A 30 cent dividend will satisfy me for now.
It was reported that SPH is sitting on a one billion $ cash. It was also reported that this huge amount will cause a lot of accounting problems. Is SPH going to reward loyal shareholders?
A 30 cent dividend will satisfy me for now.
Just for information. SPH is announcing its full year result this Thu 12 Oct.