ST Engineering    Last:7.63   -

ST Engg

Underlying downtrend intact as thin volume suggests subdued interest in stock.

"ST Engineering is slowly losing its status as a defensive stock," says UOB KayHian, which retains Hold call but cuts fair value after lowering earnings forecasts.

Says concerns about slower growth at aerospace arm have gained momentum as key customers Delta Airlines, Northwest airlines are grounding their aircraft while Federal Express recently issued profit warning.

 

xingglobal      ( Date: 29-Jun-2008 17:28) Posted: [IMG]http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm196/xingglobal/STEng.gif[/IMG] A weekly chart pattern for reference..  elfinchilde      ( Date: 29-Jun-2008 16:21) Posted: If you're talking about FA, then STE's NAV is only 57c. generally, fair value is given at 1.5-3x book to price ratio. This counter has temasek backing though; so it's very unlikely you'll see 1.5x book to price ratio, or even 2x. By technicals, past 3 years data: you'd have to DCA to prepare for 3 strikes, in a worst case scenario. first entry is ~2.87. second strike at ~2.66. third strike at ~2.32. upside possible is to 3.2-3.3. Note: above is strictly for longterm holding only (>3 mths; likely 6 mths at least). To share a bit more abt a longterm trading strat: all prices quoted above are fluid targets only, as determined by the S/R levels off price/vol charts of the past three years. Exact entry prices may not hit 2.32 or even 2.66: your actual strike is dependent on midterm charting: it may be 2.4, or 2.7 or whatever. Just as your exact exit will be determined by the shorter term charts. Think fluid, remember. Why you have to prepare for 3 strikes in this specific counter is in the event of a worst case scenario. ie, you may or may not get all 3 strikes, since the aim of a longterm strat is to reduce the risk by going in, in portions. Such that if it rebounds, you at least get some benefits off the 1st/2nd entry; but if it goes down, you're not stuck yet as you still can buy in.    Not to be mistaken with quick scalps or midterm trading. And note, only do DCA if you have the clarity of mind and nerves for it: whatever else you do, don't be abandoning a strat halfway and bailing out, then regretting it when it goes up after. Keep your mind very clear on what you are doing. Consistency of method needs to be applied. Also note that DCA does not work for all counters. Stock selection is very important.   Caveat applies to the above as per usual.

 

[IMG]http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm196/xingglobal/STEng.gif[/IMG]

A weekly chart pattern for reference.. 

elfinchilde      ( Date: 29-Jun-2008 16:21) Posted: If you're talking about FA, then STE's NAV is only 57c. generally, fair value is given at 1.5-3x book to price ratio. This counter has temasek backing though; so it's very unlikely you'll see 1.5x book to price ratio, or even 2x. By technicals, past 3 years data: you'd have to DCA to prepare for 3 strikes, in a worst case scenario. first entry is ~2.87. second strike at ~2.66. third strike at ~2.32. upside possible is to 3.2-3.3. Note: above is strictly for longterm holding only (>3 mths; likely 6 mths at least). To share a bit more abt a longterm trading strat: all prices quoted above are fluid targets only, as determined by the S/R levels off price/vol charts of the past three years. Exact entry prices may not hit 2.32 or even 2.66: your actual strike is dependent on midterm charting: it may be 2.4, or 2.7 or whatever. Just as your exact exit will be determined by the shorter term charts. Think fluid, remember. Why you have to prepare for 3 strikes in this specific counter is in the event of a worst case scenario. ie, you may or may not get all 3 strikes, since the aim of a longterm strat is to reduce the risk by going in, in portions. Such that if it rebounds, you at least get some benefits off the 1st/2nd entry; but if it goes down, you're not stuck yet as you still can buy in.    Not to be mistaken with quick scalps or midterm trading. And note, only do DCA if you have the clarity of mind and nerves for it: whatever else you do, don't be abandoning a strat halfway and bailing out, then regretting it when it goes up after. Keep your mind very clear on what you are doing. Consistency of method needs to be applied. Also note that DCA does not work for all counters. Stock selection is very important.   Caveat applies to the above as per usual.

 

If you're talking about FA, then STE's NAV is only 57c. generally, fair value is given at 1.5-3x book to price ratio. This counter has temasek backing though; so it's very unlikely you'll see 1.5x book to price ratio, or even 2x.

By technicals, past 3 years data: you'd have to DCA to prepare for 3 strikes, in a worst case scenario.

first entry is ~2.87. second strike at ~2.66. third strike at ~2.32.

upside possible is to 3.2-3.3.

Note: above is strictly for longterm holding only (>3 mths; likely 6 mths at least).

To share a bit more abt a longterm trading strat: all prices quoted above are fluid targets only, as determined by the S/R levels off price/vol charts of the past three years. Exact entry prices may not hit 2.32 or even 2.66: your actual strike is dependent on midterm charting: it may be 2.4, or 2.7 or whatever. Just as your exact exit will be determined by the shorter term charts. Think fluid, remember.

Why you have to prepare for 3 strikes in this specific counter is in the event of a worst case scenario. ie, you may or may not get all 3 strikes, since the aim of a longterm strat is to reduce the risk by going in, in portions. Such that if it rebounds, you at least get some benefits off the 1st/2nd entry; but if it goes down, you're not stuck yet as you still can buy in.   

Not to be mistaken with quick scalps or midterm trading. And note, only do DCA if you have the clarity of mind and nerves for it: whatever else you do, don't be abandoning a strat halfway and bailing out, then regretting it when it goes up after. Keep your mind very clear on what you are doing. Consistency of method needs to be applied. Also note that DCA does not work for all counters. Stock selection is very important.  

Caveat applies to the above as per usual. 

 

So what is the fair price to buy in this counter? I am thinking of getting some at $2.67? Anybody interested at this level?

elfinchilde      ( Date: 26-Jun-2008 22:30) Posted: don't average yet. what's the hurry. wait. you have til mid jul at least. the above is as direct a call as i'll ever make. :P

 

wisely said...hee :)

elfinchilde      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 14:41) Posted: it's firehouse sale, limhpp. they're selling because they don't have a choice. investors making redemption calls back home, you have to sell assets to meet the calls. i don't even think they're making from it. it's a no-choice situation for them. Look across the board. The names are regular for the past two weeks; the ramp and sell. Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Merril Lynch. UBS in some cases. Selling the blues and CPOs. subprime losses were concealed, really.... think a lot of the investment banks concealed loss figures by prop traders' success. they may have netted it off. Why else ya think oil would ramp up to 140 in a single night, and gold shoot up by US$31 per troy ounce. Macros. don't just watch individual stock TAs. Macros are important too. (personally, it was less individual stock TA, but macrotrends which stopped me from scalping short trades since april. Quite simply, risk not worth the reward for me.)

 

it's firehouse sale, limhpp. they're selling because they don't have a choice. investors making redemption calls back home, you have to sell assets to meet the calls.

i don't even think they're making from it. it's a no-choice situation for them. Look across the board. The names are regular for the past two weeks; the ramp and sell. Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Merril Lynch. UBS in some cases. Selling the blues and CPOs.

subprime losses were concealed, really.... think a lot of the investment banks concealed loss figures by prop traders' success. they may have netted it off. Why else ya think oil would ramp up to 140 in a single night, and gold shoot up by US$31 per troy ounce.

Macros. don't just watch individual stock TAs. Macros are important too. (personally, it was less individual stock TA, but macrotrends which stopped me from scalping short trades since april. Quite simply, risk not worth the reward for me.)

 

... think it's better to sit on the fence for awhile longer on this one... has been falling non-stop last 7dais ... very surprising for a defensive bluechip to behav like that.

 

yups. TA is abt probability, not 100% accuracy.

time frame is very important. one cannot overstress this. where a short scalper may call for sell, may very well be when a long timer calls for initial buy.

adapting is very important, definitely. but there is a big difference between adapting to reality, and changing strategy mid-way/mindlessly. which is where initial stock selection is important. why are you buying the stock in the first place? If you can't answer that question, if even first criteria is not met, how can it be a successful trade, no matter which strat one uses?

men are creatures of emotion, but as Plato says, rationality is the highest form of the soul.

One doesn't get to be a successful investor/trader by being emotional. You get there by being ruthlessly rational. about yourself, the stock, the market. Mistakes.

i warned of churning yesterday already, on the STI thread; and for scalpers to lock out all trades. Foreign fund redemptions are in. 30 june = D day for them. Foreigners selling. Local BBs are small fish compared to them. ...which makes us plankton. haha.

cheers. :)

CWQuah      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 02:53) Posted: Markets are naturally volatile - they are directly influenced not just by BBs and algorithmic programmed trading systems, but retail trader sentiments also come into play. Humans are emotional, and TA can only do approximations to measure that. That's why it's sometimes only possible to get an APPROXIMATE value for supports/resistances, dates of expected changes to a stock's trend etc. To survive and trade in the market, one must be able to ADAPT fast to changes in trend and volatility and correct one's beliefs or judgment on a stock or market's trend accordingly. Of course the inherent downside is if it's a ranging market, it can be hard to recognise as such and traders may suffer from whipsawing (since there will be multiple whipsaws which can be detected normally on hindsight only). The other way - and theoretically less stressful (especially in a long term bull mkt) is to just buy and hold..... and hold.... AND hold...   elfinchilde      ( Date: 26-Jun-2008 23:07) Posted: hm. like i posted before: don't get too much caught by dates and targets. that's pre-empting the trend. always keep it fluid. moving targets, not fixed ones, remember. (i know it sounds very dodgy, but i think real traders will know what i mean. you can hold in your head an idea of a price/date, but it should never be a fixed number. very difficult to put this down in words....) if victorf's date is 18th jul, and i'm saying wait til mid jul, isn't that a dovetailing of the prediction of direction already?

 

If it is BB at work, what is their intention? They will have to sell at a lower price too!

cyjjerry85      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 10:31) Posted: it might possibly be the work of the BBs...in fact if i dun remember wrongly, ST Engg recently in June did announce some contracts clinched right?  the recent hammer candlestick ...thought it might be a good chance for it to do a reversal...but wrong timing   limhpp      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 10:21) Posted: Just can't understand why it have been whack down so aggressively. There are no bad news......

 

it might possibly be the work of the BBs...in fact if i dun remember wrongly, ST Engg recently in June did announce some contracts clinched right? 

the recent hammer candlestick ...thought it might be a good chance for it to do a reversal...but wrong timing  

limhpp      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 10:21) Posted: Just can't understand why it have been whack down so aggressively. There are no bad news...... nickyng      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 10:08) Posted: no true leh...u look at BLUEs like SIA and UOB..still quite "high" this STENG is defensive by nature and it is at 2yrs low now leh within span of last 2weeks!!...look at CITYDEV...and others...i think it is quite OVER-DONE leh even if u tok able window-dressing for end Q2  rite? hee...

 

Just can't understand why it have been whack down so aggressively.

There are no bad news......

nickyng      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 10:08) Posted: no true leh...u look at BLUEs like SIA and UOB..still quite "high" this STENG is defensive by nature and it is at 2yrs low now leh within span of last 2weeks!!...look at CITYDEV...and others...i think it is quite OVER-DONE leh even if u tok able window-dressing for end Q2  rite? hee...   cyjjerry85      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 10:03) Posted: not only this counter during such times...most too isn't it

 

no true leh...u look at BLUEs like SIA and UOB..still quite "high" this STENG is defensive by nature and it is at 2yrs low now leh within span of last 2weeks!!...look at CITYDEV...and others...i think it is quite OVER-DONE leh even if u tok able window-dressing for end Q2  rite? hee...

 

cyjjerry85      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 10:03) Posted: not only this counter during such times...most too isn't it nickyng      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 10:01) Posted: wow...wat happ to this DEFENSIVE stocks??? seems over-whack by BBs siah ! :P

 

really a black FRI. more sell down expected in the pm, to end this week trading.

 

not only this counter during such times...most too isn't it

nickyng      ( Date: 27-Jun-2008 10:01) Posted: wow...wat happ to this DEFENSIVE stocks??? seems over-whack by BBs siah ! :P

 

wow...wat happ to this DEFENSIVE stocks??? seems over-whack by BBs siah ! :P

 

 

Markets are naturally volatile - they are directly influenced not just by BBs and algorithmic programmed trading systems, but retail trader sentiments also come into play. Humans are emotional, and TA can only do approximations to measure that. That's why it's sometimes only possible to get an APPROXIMATE value for supports/resistances, dates of expected changes to a stock's trend etc.

To survive and trade in the market, one must be able to ADAPT fast to changes in trend and volatility and correct one's beliefs or judgment on a stock or market's trend accordingly. Of course the inherent downside is if it's a ranging market, it can be hard to recognise as such and traders may suffer from whipsawing (since there will be multiple whipsaws which can be detected normally on hindsight only).

The other way - and theoretically less stressful (especially in a long term bull mkt) is to just buy and hold..... and hold.... AND hold...

 

elfinchilde      ( Date: 26-Jun-2008 23:07) Posted: hm. like i posted before: don't get too much caught by dates and targets. that's pre-empting the trend. always keep it fluid. moving targets, not fixed ones, remember. (i know it sounds very dodgy, but i think real traders will know what i mean. you can hold in your head an idea of a price/date, but it should never be a fixed number. very difficult to put this down in words....) if victorf's date is 18th jul, and i'm saying wait til mid jul, isn't that a dovetailing of the prediction of direction already?

 

good vol but lack of market sentiment, 2morow is your cue alrdy.

 

Ha, that's why I've been sitting on the fence for the last few months cos I just couldn't stomach the volatility!!!  You are one super lady and I raise my hats to you.  At the end of the day, you must know yourself very well to win this game and you do know yourself real well. Congrats!

I'm but a krill in this wide ocean so need to crystallise my strategy before plunging in.  You've helped me to sort out some confusion, thanks a million!

 

 

 

no, colorado. don't go midterm. if one doesn't have a risk appetite, all the more one should not play intraday: you only risk errors, because even if your reading of technicals is correct, you're likely not going to be able to control emotions.

So one would be risking shooting winners, and holding on to losers. loss can pile up rapidly this way.

it takes a certain personality to play intraday. have tried it myself, can actually scalp like 2.5k a week on average. but wasn't worth it to me (note, only to me; others may find it very good) in the end, cos for me, it's really not worth the stress and constant, rabid watching. i don't wish to spend my days watching ticks. rem that the more stressed one gets, the more you're likely to make mistakes too. and in the long run, the question is, is it viable for you, yourself?

what's midterm anyway? need to realise that longterm for me means like 6 months. haha.

the strat for a longterm investor is different from a shortterm speculator, remember. If you're in for value, longterm, now is actually when you'd start first buy. I emphasise: FIRST buy. ie, spread out your money to invest in parts. 3, 4 parts. whether it goes up or down, because you can never know when the bottom is. DCA allows you to average it out so your price is reasonable. Since, if it's STE you're talking about, this is its lowest since 2006 already. The second strike would be at the next support. Meanwhile, no movement by the investor.

If you're a scalper, you'd have whacked in at one shot and ran this counter by latest today (i gave prior call on the STI thread already this afternoon).

different strats completely. impt not to get confused. no skills, no risk appetite: sit out and wait for long term. rather move less, get less profit, but less mistakes. i mean, haha, what does it tell ya if i tell you that i'm hunting only for long term? :P

shortists may not have it so easy, esp if BBs are churning. when vol is so thin, they may get caught. unless they're on CFD. For longs: i named counters on STI thread alr. can watch out for them, read their ARs, decide for oneself whether they're worthwhile, at what px, and what time frame. :)

cheers.