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...Married Deal: Vol: 1,156 Value: $3,259,920 ie $2.82/share Prev Close: $2.82...
married deal 3,065 000shares at $2.868.
4Q13 results reflect partial loss of Japan income
Growth track in China accelerated, Japan and Brazil expanding through its funds DBSV
http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/research/May27-May31_2013/glp-dbsv_270513-result_buy.pdfMaintain Buy, TP S$3.30
Seemingly robust 4QFY13 earnings of US$224.0m, an increase of 43.1% y/y, driven by a higher contribution from jointly-controlled entities and a net fair value gain of US$71.2m (of which US$69.2m came from its China properties). Finance income of US$12.2m was recorded due to foreign exchange gains from its forward contracts, as well as mark-to-market gains on outstanding contracts. Excluding these one-off gains, 4QFY13 earnings declined 10.2% to US$140.6m.
Full year earnings increased 26.5% to US$684.3m. 4QFY13 revenues declined by 18.4% to US$125.1m, mainly due to the sale of 33 properties in Japan to its subsidiary GLP J-REIT in Jan and Feb 2013, as well as a 15% depreciation of the Japanese Yen against the US dollar.This was partially offset by the inclusion of asset and property management fee income from GLP J-REIT, completion of development projects in China with increasing rents, contribution from newly acquired subsidiaries in China, as well as asset management and development fee income from joint ventures in Japan.
Full year revenues increased 13.5% to US$642.1m. For FY13, GLP initiated new developments of 22.6m sf in China, and has earmarked an increase of 19.5% (27m sf) in new developments for FY14 at a cost of US$1.2b. Land purchases in China of 45.2m sf increased a significant 213% in FY13, bringing its total land reserve to 113m sf, which provides a strong pipeline for future development. GLP's portfolio in Japan is stable, encompassing 84 completed properties with gfa of 38.8m sf. Lease ratio is stable at 99%, with high tenant retention rate of 80%. Rents are stable at JPY100.6 psf/month. Development starts in Japan of 5m sf was ahead of the group's target, and GLP expects to begin development of approximately 4.3m sf for FY14, with development cost of US$670m. In Brazil, its 100% leased properties has a long weighted average lease expiry of more than eight years. GLP started developments of 1.1m sf in 4QFY13, and targets to initiate 3.3m sf in FY14 at a cost of US$290m.
GLP will continue to benefit from the growth of domestic consumption in its key markets, particularly in China and Brazil, while Japan undergoes a reconfiguration of its supply chain towards modern logistics facilities. 84% of its overall portfolio is leased to domestic consumption related customers, as well as a robust demand from 3PL providers and retailers, including e-commerce.
GLP recommended a dividend of 4¢ per share, implying a FY13 dividend yield of 1.5%. At its last closing price of $2.86, GLP trades at 1.3x P/B. Broker recommendations: CS maintains OUTPERFORM with TP of $3.15 Nomura remains NEUTRAL with TP of $2.70
Global Logistic Properties reported fourth quarter profits of US$224 million (S$282 million), 43 per cent higher than the US$156.5 million a year ago, driven by revaluation and foreign exchange gains. For the period ended March 31, 2013, GLP posted revenues of US$125.1 million, down 18 per cent from the US$153.3 million a year ago. This was mainly a result of its disposal of 33 properties in Japan to GLP J-Reit in January and February this year. GLP's other expenses increased 55 per cent to US$37.4 million from US$24.1 million, largely from the inclusion of expenses in connection with being asset managers of GLP J-Reit and Brazil Funds, higher staff and business costs, and costs related to the J-Reit transaction. But boosting the bottom line were a near doubling in share of results of jointly controlled entities to US$115.2 million from US$60.7 million, and a 28 per cent increase in fair value of investment properties to US$71.2 million from US$55.8 million. Subscribers, log in here to read the full story. If you do not have an account, subscribe here.
CIMB maintains O/p with $3.32 TP. House note that the yen continues to weaken but lower yields implied by the market should neutralise the impact on GLP’s asset valuations. We believe that the market is now ideal for GLP to recycle more assets in Japan to facilitate future growth or possibly a higher dividend payout. House make a few adjustments to model 1) lower FY13-15 core EPS estimates by 17-23% for a weaker ¥ vs. US$ and earnings lost from assets injected into GLP J-REIT, 2) a 50bp decline in Japanese cap rates and 3) higher AUM fee assumptions as expect more asset recycling in the next 12 months. House SOTP is raised by 8%. Maintain Outperform with catalysts from lower cap rates and asset recycling initiatives.
Looks promising lately towards its target price
Octavia ( Date: 26-Apr-2013 09:56) Posted:
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UOB Kay Hian has Technical Buy Call with $3.10 TP and tight stops placed below $2.66. Note that the stock looks poised to form a new 52-wk high should it be well supported above its rising 50-day moving average. Its MACD continues to trend higher above its centreline and RSI indicator has turned up above a reading of 40.
Goodman Group, the world’s second-biggest industrial property manager by market value, plans to increase rents in Japan by about 5% amid rising land and construction costs over the past 6 mths. Even as demand for modern warehouses and investor interest remain strong, the supply of such facilities will be limited. The logistics property market in Tokyo is rebounding from record-high vacancy rates three years ago amid increasing demand for modern storage. The city is Asia’s second-most active warehouse market after Hong Kong with US$1.6b of transactions in the past one year. The vacancy rate for warehouses in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell to 3.7% in 4Q12 from 5.2% a year earlier, according to CBRE. The rate has been in decline from a peak of 20% in Sep ‘09. GLP J-REIT, a REIT that consists of 30 logistics facilities acquired from its sponsor GLP, gained 3.1% in Tokyo, bringing its increase since the trading debut on Dec. 21 to 52%. Nippon Prologis REIT, a trust set up by Prologis, the world’s largest owner of industrial buildings, has gained 24% since it started trading Feb 14. The plan to increase rents comes as Japan accelerates efforts under PM Shinzo Abe to end deflation and boost the world’s third-largest economy, including measures to revive the property industry, which has been struggling since an asset bubble burst two decades ago. The govt has a target to increase assets owned by REITs by 40% by 2020. The capitalization rate, a measure of investment yield, for office buildings in Tokyo declined to 6.4% in Feb from 6.7% a month earlier. A drop in the cap rate, which is a property’s net income divided by the purchase price, usually signals an increase in real estate prices. Modern distribution facilities, like those owned and developed by GLP -- which have bigger floor space that allows trucks to reach every floor via ramps, reducing time needed to load and unload goods -- only account for 2% of the total warehouse space in Japan, according to LaSalle Invmt Mgt. Industrial spaces returned 4.4% in 2012, more than double the total return for office properties. The increase in demand has lured Mitsubishi Estate and Mitsui Fudosan, Japan’s two-biggest developers, to enter the business. Reading all these signals in combination suggests a positive backdrop for GLP’s warehouse business in Japan. The stock trades at 1.3x P/B.
Further inroads into Brazil, as the grp announced that it expects to invest at least 1b Brazilian reais (S$620m) in the next two years to expand its business in Latin America’s biggest economy. GLP paid about 3b Brazilian reais last ar to become one of the country’s leading operators of logistics real estate. It bought 35 properties from Hemisferio Sul Investimentos, a real estate private-equity firm, giving it about 11.8m sq ft of warehouses and distribution centres in Brazil. This year, GLP plans to spend about 1b Brazilian reais to start construction on an additional 10.8m sqft, with completion of those projects expected during the next four yrs. The co is also studying other opportunities, which could increase investment beyond 1b Brazilian reais. GLP expects domestic consumer spending — especially the rise of e-commerce — to drive demand for the co’s properties. It plans to focus on Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro because that is where consumer markets are most developed. Add that the dearth of good properties in Brazil means GLP’s expansion will likely be in greenfield projects.
its k lah, for me, its really simple, you either alight at a place with patches of greenary or a beach at red sea. So long its green grass, I am happy liao
p.s. you are right, the ride might not be over yet for this one, hang on loh. I m taking other bus coz looking for one with 'chio bu' on it loh.
p.s. you are right, the ride might not be over yet for this one, hang on loh. I m taking other bus coz looking for one with 'chio bu' on it loh.
Oh, no as the ride is still not over yet
Gu_Siao ( Date: 10-Apr-2013 17:24) Posted:
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Alighted at station 2.76, coz looking out for other bus to flag loh
Thanks
Gu_Siao ( Date: 09-Apr-2013 12:56) Posted:
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If this guy can break 2.8 convincely, then it should be moving towards 2.9 range unless something happen (bird or NK)
Thanks for the info
Octavia ( Date: 09-Apr-2013 12:14) Posted:
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To some extent I think the Japan based logistic landlord GLP J-Reit is doing well in Nikkei also plays a part.
Below is Nomura analysis.
" A higher valuation of GLP J-REIT would increase the potential for GLP to recycle more capital. However, taking all things into account, our numbers suggest the accretion to GLP's valuation is likely to be minimal (less than US$0.10/share ($0.12/share))."
Nomura trims its target to $2.70 from $2.80, noting every 5% change in its USD/JPY assumptions equates to a 2% earnings forecast change. It keeps a Neutral call. " Notwithstanding the current buoyant sentiment towards Japan assets, we believe it is too early to conclude on the impact for GLP and continue to expect a range-bound stock performance in the near term."
Below is Nomura analysis.
" A higher valuation of GLP J-REIT would increase the potential for GLP to recycle more capital. However, taking all things into account, our numbers suggest the accretion to GLP's valuation is likely to be minimal (less than US$0.10/share ($0.12/share))."
Nomura trims its target to $2.70 from $2.80, noting every 5% change in its USD/JPY assumptions equates to a 2% earnings forecast change. It keeps a Neutral call. " Notwithstanding the current buoyant sentiment towards Japan assets, we believe it is too early to conclude on the impact for GLP and continue to expect a range-bound stock performance in the near term."
eurekaw ( Date: 09-Apr-2013 11:33) Posted:
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no wonder cheong
Octavia ( Date: 09-Apr-2013 10:45) Posted:
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GLP pre-leases 463k sf of space in Suzhou and Wuhan to third-party logistics provider Best Logistics.
Sifu..very zhun
Gu_Siao ( Date: 09-Apr-2013 09:27) Posted:
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