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krisluke     01-Nov-2012 17:06  
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In presidential campaign ads, political science meets excess
By Alina Selyukh

  COLUMBUS, Ohio (Reuters) - It's 6:10 p.m. on a Thursday in October, just days before the U.S. elections. Before the clock hits 6:29 p.m., 11 political ads will have aired on the local NBC channel in Columbus, Ohio.

  One tells voters that Democratic President Barack Obama has not proposed a legitimate economic plan for the country. Another suggests that policies of Republican candidate Mitt Romney would undermine the future for America's children.

  Yet another says Romney would effectively deny many women crucial cancer screenings by proposing cuts to Planned Parenthood. The very next ad calls Obama an extremist on abortion who supports leaving babies " out to die."

  Ohio is being inundated with such duelling ads in the final days before the November 6 presidential election, as Obama and Romney both look to the state's 18 electoral votes as a crucial step toward the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

  The presidential race is now a fight in eight or so politically divided " swing" states, but nowhere more so than Ohio. Amid the chaos of the campaign's closing days, the state has become an arena for credibility-stretching banter, and a testing centre for the growing science of political advertising.

  The most expensive campaign in U.S. history (nearly $2 billion) and the free-spending independent groups that have poured more than $200 million into political ads - many of them directed at Ohio - have given analysts a high-profile chance to examine some simmering questions about such ads.

  Among them: How many ads is too many, before viewers tune them out? And what do campaign ads lead voters to do, exactly?

  Election-year political ads are a meticulously studied subject, and increasingly are used to target specific groups and encourage specific outcomes.

  Some research, for example, suggests that pro-Democrat ads are particularly effective at swaying voters' opinions, while pro-Republican ads typically are more effective at getting party supporters to show up at the polls.

  For all the analysis that has been done on campaign ads, academic and commercial research has yielded few answers on the precise impact that ads have in determining who wins an election.

  That is especially true, analysts said, in the type of advertising free-for-all that Ohio residents are seeing on their televisions now - wave after wave of ads with overlapping and similarly dark, daunting messages.

  Campaign ads became tiresome long ago for many Ohio residents, but some viewers figure that the ads must be working, or the campaigns wouldn't keep running them.

  " I think poorly of those ads and don't think they work, but there are so many of them I think it must be not so," said JoAnne Harvey, a Columbus small business owner who, as an undecided female voter is much coveted by both campaigns.

  In a reflection of how so many ads can essentially nullify one another, Harvey and another dozen Ohioans interviewed generally could not recall the details of a single campaign ad that stood above the others. Those who could acknowledged that they weren't sure which side the ad was meant to benefit.

  TARGETING VIEWERS

  Political advertising has become a multibillion-dollar market that some television station sales managers predict soon could be a year-round category of advertising.

  It has become increasingly sophisticated in " micro-targeting," the art of going after specific groups of viewers.

  For example, Democrats have been found to be more frequent television watchers than Republicans, and Democrats candidates in 2008 ran more than twice as many ads as Republicans during science-fiction shows, reality dating programs and telenovelas, according to research by Washington State University professor Travis Ridout and others.

  Those programs as well as talk shows and court shows tended to skew Democratic in viewership while crime and sports programs skewed Republican, Ridout's study found.

  But does the science of political advertising work?

  One study completed last month found Obama's ads moving voters away from Romney, while Romney's ads were much more likely to encourage Republicans to vote, rather than shift preferences among voters.

  The findings were based on a survey of more than 2,300 registered voters who said they were independents or not deeply committed to one party. They were shown one or several of the campaigns' ads by the research software company Qualtrics and the research firm Evolving Strategies.

  " Romney doesn't seem to have a lot of ability to have people moving in and out of the independent pool, but he has a lot of room to change the equation in determining who turns out to vote," said Adam Schaeffer of Evolving Strategies.

  'THEY CAN'T STOP NOW'

  If the targets of this year's campaign ads are any guide, the presidential election will be decided by middle-aged and older white women, according to a survey of more than 1,000 buying agencies done by STRATA, a software firm whose systems help air some $50 billion worth of ads a year.

  The question is whether the barrage of ads - the vast majority of them attacking a candidate, rather than promoting one - will become so overwhelming that they provoke a backlash.

  Such ads " did work on me at first, and then I became a lot more cynical and realized that a lot of it is political warfare," said Harvey, who added that she voted for Obama in 2008 but was leaning toward Romney now. " It seems almost epidemic they can't stop now that they've started."

  A rule of thumb in advertising is that an ad needs to be viewed at least three times and up to 10 to be effective, said STRATA Chief Executive John Shelton.

  " There's no question that once you start to go over (10), you start to, well, at least bore people," he said. " Then they might tune out. Then they might actually get ticked off."

  Barbara Berry, a healthcare professional and Obama supporter from Columbus, said she pre-records TV programs and skips ads.

  " I don't pay attention anymore," she said.

  Since late August, more than 915,000 presidential campaign ads have aired on broadcast and national cable TV, according to the Wesleyan Media Project. In Columbus during October, ads by the campaigns and outside groups aired more than 7,000 times.

  " Some of them just disappear in the noise," said Dan Bradley, general manager at the Columbus NBC affiliate WCMH-TV.

  Each presidential campaign has been producing about a dozen new ads a week, basing them on daily news events - a practice that ensures that most of the ads have a short shelf life.

  Romney in particular tends to place and replace ads at the spur of the moment, often in response to the news of the day.

  Obama's campaign runs two ad tracks: one that changes every one or two days, the other every couple of weeks.

  Ads this year " just seem to be rushed," said John Geer, a political ad researcher at Vanderbilt University. It's " almost like they've fallen prey to the fact that the campaigns have so much money, and the ability to make all these ads."

  (Editing by David Lindsey and Lisa Shumaker)
 
 
krisluke     01-Nov-2012 17:05  
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Gold steady as investors await US data, election
Gold bars are displayed at South Africa's Rand Refinery in Germiston
* China PMI data show economy improving in October
* Spot gold may edge up to $1,736/oz - technicals
* Coming up: U.S. consumer confidence, Oct 1400 GMT

(Updates prices)
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Gold traded flat on Thursday,
shrugging off data showing China's economy was perking up, as
investors looking for more clarity on the global economy focused
instead on U.S. employment data due on Friday.
Gold had climbed to near $1,800 an ounce in early October
after aggressive stimulus measures announced by central banks
including the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank
fuelled a rally.
But the momentum has fizzled, and gold has been stuck in a
narrow range in recent days as investors stayed put ahead of the
release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday, and the
presidential election next week.
Gold barely moved after data was released showing that
China's economy is finally regaining traction, although the
recovery remains sluggish.
" The reason for gold to rise is uncertainty. If PMI numbers
rise, that adds to confidence in the market, which is probably
negative to gold," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at
Societe Generale in Hong Kong.
But he added that an improving Chinese economy would
encourage more gold buying, which would help boost demand for
the precious metal and support prices.
In addition, the global economic outlook remains uncertain
as the euro zone debt crisis drags on and the U.S. economy has
yet to show signs of a substantial recovery.
" There is still enough uncertainty out there, and central
banks will still have to do some heavy-lifting, and it should be
supportive of gold," Friesen said.
Spot gold was nearly flat at $1,721.41 an ounce by
0656 GMT, after hitting a one-week high of $1,725.55 in the
previous session.
U.S. gold inched up 0.2 percent to $1,722.10.
Technical analysis suggested that spot gold may rebound
marginally to $1,736 an ounce, as indicated by a falling channel
and a Fibonacci retracement analysis, said Reuters market
analyst Wang Tao.


PHYSICAL MARKET ACTIVITY SUBDUED
The anaemic performance has also led to sluggish activity in
the physical market in Asia.
" There is some preparation for Christmas going on, but
overall not much is happening as prices are stuck in a range,"
said a Singapore-based dealer.
In Singapore, gold bar premiums stood at 80 cents an ounce
above London prices, she added.
Investors are also waiting for U.S. auto sales data due
later in the day. Sales are set to rise 11 percent in October,
led by Toyota Motor Corp and Honda Motor Co
which benefited from increased demand for compact cars as
gasoline prices remained high across the country.

An improved auto market will help underpin sentiment in
platinum group metals that are widely used to produce catalysts
to clean vehicle exhaust.
Spot palladium rose 1.2 percent to $607.47, moving
close to a one-week high of $609.5 hit in the previous session.
Spot platinum gained half a percent to $1,569.49.

Precious metals prices 0656 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Volume
Spot Gold 1721.41 1.36 +0.08 10.08
Spot Silver 32.44 0.23 +0.71 17.15
Spot Platinum 1569.49 8.29 +0.53 12.67
Spot Palladium 607.47 7.07 +1.18 -6.90
COMEX GOLD DEC2 1722.10 3.00 +0.17 9.91 13013
COMEX SILVER DEC2 32.47 0.15 +0.46 16.30 4161
Euro/Dollar 1.2960
Dollar/Yen 80.01
COMEX gold and silver contracts show the most active months



(Editing by Ed Davies)
 
 
krisluke     01-Nov-2012 17:03  
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Hong Kong shares end up 0.8 pct at 2012 closing high
Looking down into the Hong Kong CBD
HONG KONG, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares closed at a new 2012 closing high on Thursday, boosted by gains in mainland Chinese markets which advanced on hopes that some city governments were easing restrictions on property purchases.

  The Hang Seng Index finished up 0.8 percent at 21,821.9, the highest close this year. The China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong ended up 1.1 percent.

  On the mainland, the CSI300 Index of the top Shanghai and Shenzhen listings closed up 1.9 percent at 2,297.9. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.7 percent. For both indices, it was their best daily gain since Oct. 9.

  HIGHLIGHTS:

  * Bourse turnover was the highest in about a week as some investors, anxious not to miss out on the next leg up in Chinese equities, poured into some growth-sensitive sectors, reversing early losses for some of the larger Chinese property names. China Overseas Land rose 1.5 percent, while China Resources Land gained 2.8 percent.

  * The state-run China Securities Journal reported that as many as six Chinese cities have sought to spur housing demand by making it easier to obtain funds for buyers that could, in turn, support land sales, a major revenue source for local governments.

  * Defensive names were broadly weaker on the day, with Hong Kong & China Gas down 1.5 percent, hit by a UBS downgrade from " neutral" to " sell" after strong recent gains for the Hong Kong utilities counter. UBS cited as a key concern the company's increasing risk profile as it expands into related upstream energy business.
 

 
krisluke     01-Nov-2012 17:02  
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UK stocks bounce back on earnings news boost
LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Britain's leading share index ticked higher in early deals on Thursday, steadying after sharp falls in the previous session, as investors digested another hefty batch of blue chip earnings reports.

  Lloyds Banking Group, Royal Dutch Shell, BT Group, BSkyB, and Legal & General all found good gains following results on Thursday.

  But chemicals firm Croda International was a drag on the blue chips, shedding 5 percent after it said trading weakened in September, with month-on-month trading volatile.

  At 0812 GMT, the FTSE 100 index was up 13.70 points, or 0.2 percent at 5,796.40.

  The UK blue chip index dropped 1.2 percent on Wednesday to 5,782.70 as a string of gloomy earnings and outlooks from firms such as BG Group, Barclays and GlaxoSmithKline weighed on sentiment. (Reporting by Jon Hopkins)
 
 
krisluke     01-Nov-2012 17:01  
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Reassuring corporate results lift European shares
Business section of a newspaper with Euros
LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - European shares edged up on Thursday, bolstered by a string of upbeat earnings reports from UK companies including heavyweight oil major Royal Dutch Shell .

  Trading volumes were expected, however, to be thin due to public holidays in France, Italy, Spain and parts of Germany.

  The FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.3 percent to 1,099.08 points, while the euro zone's blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index added 0.1 percent to 2,505.61 points.

  Shell posted a smaller than expected fall in profits, sending its shares 0.9 percent higher, and investors also welcomed news from British bank Lloyds and telecoms group BT.

  " Some of the results look to be reasonably robust, in light of the weak economic backdrop," said Central Markets senior trader Joe Neighbour.
 
 
krisluke     01-Nov-2012 16:59  
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Obama to use " affirmative" message in closing campaign pitch
By Jeff Mason

  WASHINGTON (Reuters) - After three days of focusing on superstorm Sandy, President Barack Obama will return to the campaign trail on Thursday with a more " affirmative" message to win over undecided voters in the final days of the race for the White House.

  With polls showing a tight contest between the Democratic incumbent and Republican challenger Mitt Romney before Tuesday's election, Obama will use trips to political battleground states to make a closing appeal for a second term.

  That argument will touch on points he has made for months about the choice between competing Republican and Democratic visions, Obama advisers said, but it will put more weight on Obama's ideas for the future and could resurrect some of the hopeful themes that helped him win election in 2008.

  " You're going to see him lift up ... the vision of what we're fighting for," senior campaign strategist David Axelrod said in an interview last week before the storm, adding the construction of Obama's " stump" speech would alter slightly in the final days.

  " We'll still address what the choice is. You have to address the choice. But I think it'll tilt toward the affirmative, toward the future."

  Obama was to have started his closing argument on Monday during a rally in Florida, but he skipped that event to return to Washington to help coordinate storm relief. The massive storm pummelled New York City and other parts of the U.S. Northeast.

  The president has not given a traditional campaign speech since Saturday - an unusually long period this close to Election Day - but has remained in the public eye with daily remarks in Washington and a trip to New Jersey to survey storm damage.

  Romney, who also cancelled some political rallies because of the storm, limited his attacks on the president while campaigning on Wednesday in Florida.

  Obama won the 2008 election using the themes of " hope" and " change," which resonated with voters disgruntled with the policies of Republican President George W. Bush.

  This year, Obama used " Forward" as his slogan, but his message - and that of his surrogates - has included stinging attacks on Romney, a former private equity executive and Massachusetts governor.

  Republicans charge that Obama's message has been negative because his record on the economy is weak. Democrats counter that Romney, who has levelled his share of negative attacks at Obama, has twisted the truth about the president's record and run away from his own.

  FINAL PUSH

  While Obama starts a tour of swing states including Nevada, Colorado and Ohio, his campaign is focusing intensely on its get-out-the-vote effort, which Democrats believe will give them an edge on Election Day.

  Campaign manager Jim Messina, who built the Obama " ground game" of volunteers, said online donations coming in now were going straight to that operation, rather than to television advertising.

  " Anything I get online, it goes right out to the ground," Messina said in an interview, contrasting that strategy with Romney's team. " They're still dumping money trying to get a bigger advantage on TV," he said.

  His philosophy is evident in the campaign's Chicago-based headquarters. The office, once bustling with hundreds of people, is thinner now as staff members leave to spend the final days of the race working in key states, getting applause from their colleagues as they depart.

  Messina said television was less important in the final stretch than having volunteers get voters to the polls.

  " The final days, I think TV is way less relevant," Messina said. " We have always banked on the endgame to put us over the top. That's where we are, and we continue to feel very confident that interaction between our neighbourhood leaders and their friends and neighbours is how you persuade people at the end."

  (Editing by Alistair Bell and Peter Cooney)
 

 
krisluke     01-Nov-2012 16:58  
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Spain extends short-selling ban for three months
MADRID, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Spain's stock market regulator is to extend a ban on the short-selling of securities for three months to Jan. 31 to discourage investors from trying to profit from the country's economic crisis.

  The crisis has knocked more than 8 percent off Spain's blue-chip IBEX 35 index over the past year. Big losses earlier in the year led Spain, along with other European countries, to prohibit short-selling in July.

  Short-selling is when investors borrow shares, sell them and later buy the shares back at a lower price, turning a profit.

  The extension of the ban is good news for Spain's banks, a popular choice for short-selling as investors bet that the share prices of troubled lenders will fall farther. Spain negotiated a bank bailout of up to 100 billion euros ($129.5 billion) in June.

  " The bank restructuring process is still not completed, leading to uncertainty about the sector, which could affect financial stability. In this context, not banning short-selling could add to uncertainty," regulator CNMV said in a statement on Thursday.

  On Wednesday Spain's central bank approved private capitalisation plans for banks Popular and Ibercaja, and said that it expected four other lenders would need public support.

  The Bank of Spain findings may mean that the government could end up using more of the European credit line than the 40 billion euros previously estimated.

  Spanish banks' share prices have tumbled in the past year, with biggest loser Bankia down 68 percent, while Popular has shed 66 percent. Banks have reported huge drops in nine-month profits after writing off losses on bad property investments.

  Spain had previously extended July's ban to the end of October and said that it would seek European approval for a further three-month ban.
 
 
krisluke     01-Nov-2012 16:57  
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Asian shares fall, China shares buck trend
Graph with stacks of Australian dollars
* MSCI Asia ex-Japan falls, Nikkei ends up 0.2 pct

  * China official manufacturing PMI, HSBC final PMI pick up

  * PMIs from India, Indonesia, Taiwan improve

  * Brent weighed by worries storm Sandy to cut fuel demand

  * European shares likely rise modestly

  By Chikako Mogi

  TOKYO, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Thursday but losses were curbed as the region's factory activity surveys mostly improved, with China's official and private sector manufacturing PMIs confirming a recovery in the growth trend even if it lacked punch.

  European shares were seen rising modestly. Financial spreadbetters expect London's FTSE 100, Paris's CAC-40 and Frankfurt's DAX to open as much as 0.2 percent higher.

  U.S. stock futures were down 0.3 percent, however, suggesting a weak Wall Street open after ending Wednesday flat in the wake of a powerful storm that caused the market's first weather-related two-day closure since the late 19th century.

  China's October official PMI rose to 50.2 in October from 49.8 in September, pointing to expanded factory activity in the world's second-largest economy. The final reading of the HSBC PMI hit an 8-month high of 49.5.

  Manufacturing growth from Indonesia, Taiwan and India all improved, while Australia's contracted for an eighth month in October.

  " Overall sentiment is brightening and Chinese orders are suggesting a moderate recovery," said Hirokazu Yuihama, a senior strategist at Daiwa Securities. " But global monetary easing has strengthened currencies of South Korea and Taiwan, where interest rates are relatively higher, hurting their export-led economies and offsetting the general improvement."

  The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3 percent. Mild improvement in Chinese factory activity helped the index trim losses slightly.

  A Tokyo-based currency trader said markets may treat the official PMI data with some scepticism out of suspicion that the Chinese authorities would not like a bad number to be released ahead of a once-a-decade leadership transition due to start this month.

  Australian shares slid 1.3 percent as miners and banks pulled the index into its biggest one-day percentage fall since late July. Data showing South Korea's manufacturing sector shrank for a fifth straight month in October, even at a milder pace, weighed on Seoul shares which slipped 0.7 percent.

  But mainland Chinese shares lifted Hong Kong markets with their best daily performance in about a month, beating Asian peers, as a report that more city governments were easing restrictions on the real estate sector helped bolster sentiment.

  The Hang Seng Index was up 0.8 percent and Shanghai shares jumped 1.7 percent.

  " Any signs of policy moderation in an important sector like property is always going to help. The better PMI today is also a factor, it gives investors confidence that the economy is recovering," said Cao Xuefeng, head of research at Huaxi Securities in Chengdu.

  Japan's Nikkei average closed up 0.2 percent as some earnings were not as bad as feared.

  CURRENCIES LACK DIRECTION

  The dollar gained 0.4 percent against the yen to 80.13 , approaching a four-month high of 80.38 hit last week.

  The euro was pinned in the recent $1.28-$1.32 range, trading steady at $1.2960. The China-sensitive Australian dollar steadied around $1.0366.

  Major currencies have been confined to recent ranges due to uncertainty over bailouts for Greece and Spain, the tight U.S. presidential election on Nov. 6 and the potential for the United States to run over a " fiscal cliff" early next year unless Congress acts to avert looming tax hikes and cuts to public spending.

  The U.S. ISM index of national manufacturing conditions in October, due to be released later on Tursday, is expected to hold above 50 for a second straight month

  Employment numbers due on Friday are expected to show U.S. employers added 125,000 jobs in October and the jobless rate likely ticked up to 7.9 percent from September's 7.8 percent. Any improvement in the U.S. economy could scale back expectations for further easing, putting upward pressure on U.S. yields and boosting the dollar.

  Euro zone finance ministers held a teleconference on Wednesday without any breakthrough on Greece, which served notice that it will overshoot its deficit and debt targets again next year because of a deeper-than-forecast recession.

  Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said he expected a deal at the finance ministers' face-to-face meeting on Nov. 12 provided Greece had completed a list of prior actions.

  Brent edged down toward $108 a barrel as investors focused on concerns that storm Sandy's rampage across the U.S. East Coast could reduce fuel demand and shrugged off the positive China data. U.S. crude was up 0.2 percent at $86.41.

  " A lot of attention is dedicated to the United States after Sandy came through," said Natalie Rampono, a commodity strategist at ANZ.

  Asian credit markets were subdued, with the spread on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index barely changed from Wednesday.
 
 
krisluke     01-Nov-2012 16:55  
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Wall St Week Ahead: Jobs data, election may overshadow earnings
By Ryan Vlastelica
NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Earnings season may be only
half over, but the focus on profits should subside this week as
investors turn their attention to the coming election and
Friday's jobs data - the last major economic indicator before
the Nov. 6 contest.
More bellwether companies are set to report results in what
will be another " peak week" of the earnings season. Such a
flurry of numbers normally holds Wall Street's attention, and it
can lead to market swings. But volume and volatility may be
slight this week, with market participants opting to remain on
the sidelines ahead of the jobs data and the election.
The U.S. government's October jobs report will give a
snapshot of the current labor market. It could also give a bit
of a lift to President Barack Obama, should it come out better
than anticipated, or help Republican candidate Mitt Romney - if
it is worse than forecast.
Polls currently indicate that President Obama is a slight
favorite to win on Nov. 6, but the race will be tight. The most
recent Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters shows the president
ahead - 47 percent to 45 percent.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 1.5 percent last week,
largely because of a spate of earnings disappointments. The Dow
Jones industrial average slid 1.8 percent last week, and the
Nasdaq composite index dropped 0.6 percent.
What is notable, however, is that rebounds have been brief
and quick to attract sellers.
Some investors cited the approaching election as a barrier
to committing new capital to the market.
" Not many people have the stomach to plop down their bets
when polling is so close," said Hayes Miller, the Boston-based
head of asset allocation in North America at Baring Asset
Management. " For the most part, investors will wait and see what
happens."
Miller, who helps oversee more than $50 billion in assets,
said the trend of caution would be especially pronounced in the
health care, financial and energy
sectors - three areas that may face different regulatory
outlooks, depending on the election's outcome.
" These are the ones really in play," he said.
Expectations for the nonfarm payrolls report, set for
release on Friday, are by no means certain, either. Analysts
expect 124,000 jobs were added in October - up 10,000 from
September. However, the unemployment rate is also seen ticking
higher - to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent.
A payroll surprise in either direction could further cloud
expectations for the election's outcome.
" A big change in payrolls could cause some uncertainty over
the winner," said Jerry Harris, president of asset management at
Sterne Agee, in Birmingham, Alabama. " I don't expect a big
surprise, but while the S& P doesn't seem especially vulnerable
at these levels, I don't think it is in a hurry to go up,
either."
The market will also have to contend with the weather.
Hurricane Sandy is expected to hit the eastern third of the
United States, including the East Coast, by Monday night with
torrential rains, high winds, major flooding and power outages.
In New York, officials will close the city's bus and subway
lines, and commuter railroads at 7 p.m. EDT Sunday. Decisions
have not been made whether to close bridges and tunnels leading
to Manhattan in preparation for the storm's arrival.

At the New York Stock Exchange, the plans call for business
as usual. The exchange issued a statement saying it has
contingency plans to have the market running, adding that it has
back-up power generation facilities. The Big Board will make
accommodations for critical staff and traders.
Rival marketplace NASDAQ OMX said in a statement that it
plans to make sure its systems are ready. It will communicate
with its members before, up to and after the storm.

EARNINGS IN PLAY, IF NOT IN FOCUS
While the market at large may be waiting on news events,
individual stocks could still be volatile as earnings season
grinds along. More than half of the S& P 500 components have
reported results so far. This week, though, will bring reports
from some marquee names such as Dow components Chevron
and Pfizer, as well as S& P 500 stalwarts Visa,
Ford Motor and Starbucks
This earnings season, a number of high-profile companies
have missed estimates, including sour notes last week from
Apple Inc, United Technologies and DuPont
.
With 54 percent of the S& P 500 companies having reported
results so far, 62.5 percent have topped earnings expectations,
under the 67 percent average over the past four quarters. Just
37 percent have topped revenue forecasts, well under the 55
percent over the past four quarters.
The earnings disappointments led to some intensive selling,
driving the Dow industrials down 243.36 points last Tuesday.
The S& P 500 has ended down in five of the past seven trading
sessions. Those declines have pushed the benchmark S& P under its
50-day moving average of around 1,434, leading some analysts to
believe it may be ready for a bounce.
" We'll use any pullback as an opportunity to buy," said Chip
Cobb, senior vice president at Bryn Mawr Trust Asset Management
in Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania. " Even though we've seen a number of
companies miss expectations and be overly cautious, we're
focusing on how a majority have beaten."
Cobb said he was especially looking to results this week
from U.S. Steel Corp. Its stock is down almost 20 percent
so far this year.
" Steel companies have been participating really poorly, and
I'm anxious to see if that will continue," he said.

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Sunday. Questions or comments
on this column can be emailed to:
ryan.vlastelica(at)thomsonreuters.com)
 
 
krisluke     01-Nov-2012 16:53  
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[Trading Central] Straits Times: consolidation.

01 Nov 2012 16:37

Update on supports and resistances.

Short Term View
(Rise, Limited Rise, Consolidation, Limited Decline, Decline)		 Limited Decline
Change In Short Term View None
Medium Term View
(Bullish, Range, Bearish)		 Range
Change In Medium Term View None


Pivot: 3110

Our preference: Short positions below 3110 with targets @ 2978 & 2940 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 3110 look for further upside with 3160 & 3210 as targets.

Comment: as long as 3110 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Key levels
3210
3160
3110
3027.67 last
2978
2940
2900

Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL



Click to view chart in actual size.
 

 
krisluke     31-Oct-2012 14:41  
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ASEAN Market Preview, Bukit Asam, PLDT, Singapore, CIMB Niaga, PTTEP

 



Economist and Hedge Fund Manager Shayne Heffernan of www.livetradingnews.com takes a look at Bukit Asam, PLDT, Singapore, CIMB Niaga, PTTEP

Tuesday’s shutdown was the first time weather had resulted in a two-day market shutdown since the Great Blizzard of 1888. Exchanges expect to reopen on Wednesday.

Investors expect heightened volatility when markets do reopen as the two-day closure creates pent-up demand.

Certain sectors are seen as especially tied to the fallout from the storm, which caused major flooding from storm surge during high tides, along with extensive damage from high winds and lashing rain. Disaster-modeling company Eqecat estimates Sandy caused between $10 billion and $20 billion in total economic damages, with $5 billion to $10 billion in insured losses.

Construction sectors as well as retailers such as Home Depot (HD.N) may see a boost from the eventual rebuilding effort, though airlines, which were forced to cancel thousands of flights, could see sharp falls. Insurance companies will also be in focus.

China’s top four banks are on course for their weakest annual profit growth since going public as the central bank’s interest rate cuts in the middle of the year kick in, slicing lending margins.

After posting profit gains of more than 20 percent for years, the so-called “Big Four”, led by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (ICBC) , are expected to report growth of as little as 5 percent in 2012, according to Thomson Reuters Starmine.

That would be the slimmest growth since China Construction Bank Corp (CCB) became the first of the four to list in 2005, following the central bank’s interest rate cuts in June and July.

Thailand

PTTEP for this quarter, the total revenue of PTTEP and its subsidiaries was USD 1,422 million (equivalent to 42,837 million baht), a decrease of USD 65 million or 4% compared to the revenue of USD 1,487 million (equivalent to 45,012 million baht) posted in the previous quarter. The sales volume decreased to 264,961 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOED) compared to the previous quarter’s total sales volume 273,310 BOED. This decrease was the result of lower sales volume of natural gas and condensate from Arthit, Arthit North and Bongkot projects. However, a sales volume of natural gas and condensate from the MTJDA-B17 Project and a sales volume of diluted bitumen from Canada Oil Sands KKD Project increased. In addition, the higher average petroleum sales price this quarter went down to USD 55.37 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) compared to the previous quarter’s price of USD 56.28 per BOE.

One of the key progresses in the third quarter was the Bongkot South Field in the Gulf of Thailand. The central processing platform and living quarter platform have been installed successfully while the hook-up and commissioning offshore activities are currently ongoing. The production start up of natural gas at 320 million standard cubic feet per day is expected by the first half of 2012. Another was the development of Montara Field progressing as planned. The expected initial production is still maintained in 2012 as well.

Vietnam 16-1 Project which commenced crude oil production in August this year has increased the average production rate to 31,000 BPD. The production is expected to reach approximately 40,000 BPD by the end of 2011.

Malaysia

CIMB Group Holdings Bhd’s 97.9% indirect subsidiary in Indonesia, CIMB Niaga, has recorded a 30% increase in net profit to 3.10 trillion rupiah (RM986.6mil) for the nine-month ended Sept 30, from the previous corresponding period driven by an increase in total operating income.

This translates to earnings per share (EPS) of 123.42 rupiah, from 95.10 rupiah a year earlier.

Total operating income increased by 25% to 9.59 trillion rupiah as at Sept 30 from a year ago with corporate, commercial, and treasury operations being the largest contributors.

CIMB Niaga president director Arwin Rasyid said that Indonesia’s relatively stable economy had a positive impact on the bank’s performance, particularly in the disbursement of loans.

For the period under review, loans grew by 14% to 138.91 trillion rupiah from a year ago.

“The loans growth was contributed by commercial banking (including syariah), consumer banking, and corporate banking, which grew by 28%, 7%, and 5%, respectively on a year on year basis. They contributed 59.12 trillion rupiah, 38.95 trillion rupiah and 40.84 trillion rupiah to CIMB Niaga’s total loan, respectively” said Arwin in statement yesterday.

A number of CIMB Niaga’s businesses, Arwin said, showed impressive lending and financing growth.

These included personal loans, a product the bank introduced in May last year with such loans reaching 851 billion rupiah by end-September, up significantly by 325% from last year.

Another unit listing strong growth was the syariah financing business, which grew 117% to 6.13 trillion rupiah for the period under review.

“The catalyst to our syariah growth was the loan-to-value policy imposed on conventional banks,” Arwin said.

In addition, another product, rahn, has seen a significant growth of 174% to 85.68 billion rupiah through 77 outlets operated as at Sept 30.

While making the aggressive move to pursue profitable but safer asset classes, CIMB Niaga has successfully improved its asset quality, as reflected in the gross non-performing loan ratio of 2.41% as at Sept 30, down from 2.63% previously.

The bank also saw an increase in total deposits during this period.

The bank’s deposits reached 146.18 trillion rupiah, a 16% increase from previously with the current account savings account increasing by 19% to 62.49 trillion rupiah.

The bank’s financial ratios also showed improvements where CIMB Niaga’s fee income ratio increased from 24.76% to 25.28%, while the cost to income ratio decreased from 49.17% to 47%.

Return on asset was at 3.19%, 30 basis points higher than 2.89% previously, while return on equity shareholder’s fund rose to 20.98% from 19.58%.

With this achievement, CIMB Niaga continues to maintain its position as Indonesia’s fifth largest bank by asset size.

The bank’s total assets as at Sept 30 reached 190.62 trillion rupiah, up 20% from a year ago.

Singapore

Singapore’s Gross Domestic Product growth is likely to come in below potential for the second consecutive year in 2013, says the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

In its half-yearly Macroeconomic Review, October 2012 released today, the central bank said over the last two years, the global economy has been subjected to frequent swings in sentiment, alternating between bouts of cautious optimism and alarming risk aversion.

In the second quarter and third quarter this year, for instance, MAS said there was a discernible loss in growth momentum, following a temporary rebound in the earlier part of 2012.

The moderation in growth was due to renewed concerns over the recovery in the advanced economies which in turn weighed on consumer and business sentiment around the world.

Mirroring the developments on the external front, MAS said the Singapore economy slowed significantly in Q2 and contracted in Q3, after a strong expansion at the beginning of the year.

While the economy escaped a technical recession, the weakening in the third quarter has broadened beyond the trade-related sectors.

Reflecting the recent slowdown in regional demand, led by China and the newly industrialised countries, the sluggishness in Singapore’s trade-related industries extended to the services sectors which had previously been resilient.

Nonetheless, pockets of strength in the domestic-oriented activities offered some support. On balance, MAS said Singapore’s GDP growth is expected to come in at 1.5-2.5 per cent this year.

According to the review, while the global economy should be relatively less volatile next year, its growth momentum is unlikely to pick up significantly as the deleveraging process in the advanced economies will be protracted.

As such, Singapore could see its second consecutive year of below-potential growth in 2013.

Nonetheless, the level of domestic output should continue to be above its underlying potential, aided by the resilience of the domestic-oriented sectors.

This will provide support to the labour market, which should remain at close to full employment next year.

Philippines

Moody’s Investors Service upgraded the credit ratings of several large private and government firms in the country, saying factors that led to the improved credit standing of the Philippine government have the same positive impact on the financial performance of the companies.

In separate statements issued late Monday and early Tuesday, the international credit watchdog said it raised the credit ratings of the state-owned National Power Corp. (Napocor), Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM) and Land Bank of the Philippines.

It also said it raised the credit scores of private firms Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT), Banco de Oro Universal Bank, Bank of the Philippine Islands and Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co.

The credit ratings of all the companies mentioned—except PLDT—were raised from Ba2 to Ba1, or from two notches to just one notch below investment grade.

PLDT’s credit rating was raised from Baa3 to Baa2, or from the minimum investment grade to one notch above the minimum.

Moody’s said the upgrades for the companies were all in line with the increase in the credit rating of the Philippine government.

Last Monday, Moody’s raised the Philippine government’s credit rating from Ba2 to Ba1, citing favorable growth of the domestic economy among others factors, which would directly or indirectly affect creditworthiness.

An economy that is growing robustly should help improve tax collection of the government, thereby increasing its ability to service its obligations.

For companies, a favorable performance of the economy means rise in incomes of households that in turn leads to increased consumption of goods and services and, therefore, higher profits.

In the first semester, the Philippine economy grew by 6.1 percent from a year ago, thus registering one of the fastest growth rates during the period. This came while advanced economies are confronted with problems, with the euro zone suffering a recession.

Moody’s also cited favorable macroeconomic factors, such as low inflation and rising remittances from overseas-based Filipinos.

Low inflation is seen to allow individuals to consume more, and to encourage firms to purchase capital and invest more to boost earnings.

The higher credit ratings of the government and the companies in the Philippines are expected to allow them to borrow funds, such as via sale of bonds in the international capital market, at lower costs.

The Philippine government expects to get an investment grade by 2013.

Indonesia

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam had a decline of almost 8 percent in profit for the third quarter, as falling coal prices amid concern of a global economic slowdown affect the company’s revenue.

Net income at Bukit Asam fell 7.6 percent to Rp 640 billion ($66 million) in the July-September period from the same three months last year. Still, revenue rose 12 percent to Rp 2.93 trillion.

The Jakarta Globe calculated third-quarter figures by subtracting nine-month data from the first half. The company did not confirm this calculation.

In the first nine months, net income at Bukit Asam fell 5 percent to Rp 2.2 trillion, the company said in a statement released on Monday.

Bukit Asam’s revenue rose 12 percent to Rp 8.72 trillion in the same period.

Joko Pramono, corporate secretary at Bukit Asam, said a 15 percent increase in sales by volume to 11.36 million metric tons contributed to its revenue growth. However, the average selling price of coal at Bukit Asam fell 2 percent to Rp 765,934 per ton.

The average selling price continued its decline from where it was in the first half of this year at Rp 785,043 per ton.

Frederick Daniel Tanggela, an analyst with Trimegah Securities, said in a note to client on Monday that Bukit Asam’s net income was lower than expected.

“With these lower-than-expected set of results, we may downgrade our 2012 [earnings] estimates,” he said, noting that Trimegah’s current estimates for Bukit Asam was already 31 percent lower than the consensus expectation.

For the full year, Frederick forecast Bukit Asam’s revenue to be at Rp 11.7 trillion and net income at Rp 2.77 trillion.

Despite the possible earnings downgrade, he said Trimegah would maintain its Rp 18,000 target price for Bukit Asam’s shares, a 15 percent premium on its latest trading price.

“Bukit Asam remains our top pick in the sector given its mine-mouth plants projects,” Frederick said.

Bukit Asam said on Monday that it had set up a joint-venture company in September called Huadian Bukit Asam Power to build two 620 megawatt coal-fired power plants in Tanjung Enim, South Sumatra.

Bukit Asam controls 45 percent of this joint venture and will be the sole supplier for the power plant with 5.4 million to 6 million tons per year for 25 years.

Shares in Bukit Asam fell 2.8 percent to Rp 15,650 in Monday trading on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
 
 
krisluke     31-Oct-2012 14:38  
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EuroCrisis: Greece Moves Closer to Collapse

 



Economist and Hedge Fund Manager Shayne Heffernan of www.livetradingnews.com takes a look at Greece

All indications are that unemployment in Greece will continue to rise. The economy has shrunk by around a fifth since the recession started in 2008 and youth unemployment has pushed far above 50 percent. The economy is expected to enter a sixth year of recession next year. “This is a very dramatic result of the recession,” said Angelos Tsakanikas, head of research at Greece’s IOBE economic research foundation.

Excerpts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report were presented to the Eurogroup Working Group (EWG) — junior finance ministers and treasury officials who prepare meetings of euro zone finance ministers.

“It is clear that Greece is off track and there is no chance they will cut the debt to 120% of GDP in 2020 as envisaged. It will be rather 136%, and this would be under a positive scenario of a primary budget surplus, a return to economic growth, and privatization,” a eurozone official, who insisted on anonymity, said.

The Greek banking sub index plummeted 13.59 percent over unresolved recapitalization, tied to last-minute efforts to complete conditions for new debt funding to avert bankruptcy for Greece.

And the main market index was showing a fall of 5.88 percent in afternoon trading after the finance ministry said that Greek banks would not be able to swap their holdings of national debt.

The ministry also said that results for the banks for the second quarter of this year would be delayed by a month until November 30 because of delays in recapitalization.

The ministry made its announcement shortly after a meeting between Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras and the Greek banking federation on Monday to discuss the urgent plight of the banks.

The ministry said that at the meeting, the possibility that Greek banks could swap their greatly devalued Greek bonds for bonds issued by the new European Stability Mechanism “was ruled out”.
Stock market dealers said that this caused banks share to plunge, dragging down the entire Athens stock index.

Greece hopes to help recapitalize its banks, hard hit by the national debt, deep recession and flight of capital, with money from the next installment of rescue funds from the IMF and EU, which still hangs on completion of new reforms.

The critical matter of recapitalizing the Greek banks, being kept going with various forms of funding on especially easy terms from the European Central Bank, is far behind schedule.

Recapitalization hangs on completion of the latest audit and agreement on extra budget action and reforms between Greece and the
International Monetary Fund, European Union and ECB. Without payment of the next installment, Greece faces bankruptcy next month.

The banks took a body blow when Greek debt was restructured under the latest rescue arrangements which forced private holders of Greek debt to take a big loss on the money owed.

Stournaras and Georges Zanias, head of the Union of Greek Banks, met to work out details of how to help institutions hit by the write down of more than 100 billion euros ($130 billion) in privately held government debt in March.

The European Union’s temporary rescue fund has earmarked around 50 billion euros for the task, and much of an EU-IMF lifeline worth another 31.5 billion is also expected to help banks restore solid balance sheets so they can provide more support to the wider Greek economy.

Greece, which has been in recession for five years, must set its financial sector back on its feet to underpin economic growth as the government enacts austerity measures worth 13.5 billion euros that have been demanded by creditors in exchange for their aid.

The German magazine Spiegel reported on Sunday that international auditors, including some from the European Central Bank, would demand that Greece carry out another 150 reforms to its economy, and suggest that holders of Greek debt, often the banks, accept further losses.

Citing an interim version of the findings of the so-called troika of creditors, Spiegel said that Athens would be allowed two more years to carry out the reforms in its programme but that this delay would cost billions of euros.

Greece has completed 60 percent of the reforms already demanded of it, the report says, according to Spiegel. Another 20 percent are being debated by the Greek government, while the rest are outstanding.

Talks between the Greek government and creditors have reportedly stalled on demands for more flexibility in its labor market, a position that is opposed by the left-of-center Dimar party, one of three parties that comprise a Greek coalition led by Prime Minister Antonis Samaras.
 
 
krisluke     31-Oct-2012 14:35  
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Asian shares rise on growing risk appetite
Global Markets
* MSCI Asia ex-Japan up 0.3 pct, Nikkei gains 1 pct

  * Oil drifts without clear direction as Sandy fallout eyed

  * Currencies return to recent ranges ahead of US jobs data

  * European shares likely to fall

  By Chikako Mogi

  TOKYO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose as risk appetite recovered after European equities and the euro firmed overnight, and investors looked to coming U.S. and Chinese data for fresh clues on direction.

  Key currencies stayed in recent ranges on Wednesday, waiting for developments in Europe on efforts to solve the debt crisis and for the U.S. monthly jobs report on Friday as well as China's official manufacturing PMI on Thursday.

  European shares were seen cautious after rising on Tuesday on a slew of shareholder-friendly corporate news. Financial spreadbetters expect London's FTSE 100, Paris's CAC-40 and Frankfurt's DAX to open as much as 0.2 percent lower.

  U.S. stock futures were up 0.1 percent, suggesting a mild uptick when Wall Street resumes trading on Wednesday, along with U.S. bond markets, after New York was lashed by Sandy, the worst storm to batter the metro area in 75 years.

  The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3 percent, off a two-week low hit on Tuesday. At its current level, the index has a marginal monthly gain of 0.2 percent, after September's 5.6 percent rise.

  Australian shares ended with a 0.7 percent rise, supported by a rebound in copper prices which boosted miners. South Korean shares also climbed 0.7 percent on the day after the country snapped a three-month run of falls in industrial output in September, which raised hopes for a turnaround in Asia's fourth-largest economy.

  Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 0.5 percent, bouncing off a near two-week low on strength in Chinese banks after the largest, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, posted forecast-beating third-quarter earnings. The index was set for a second-straight monthly gain.

  " European markets had a nice bounce yesterday, so markets in Asia have really responded to the strong performance in Europe," said Guy Stear, head of research with Societe Generale in Hong Kong.

  " It's difficult to say we are really in a 'risk on' period because people are really focused on company specific news" rather than macroeconomic news, he said, adding that Asian markets have not yet recovered to highs in mid-October.

  Data showed on Wednesday that Taiwan's economy grew by slightly less than expected in the third quarter, and the Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index posted its fastest pace of contraction in 18 months in October.

  Elsewhere in Asia, Indonesia's benchmark index fell 0.7 percent after closing at a record high on Tuesday as strong quarterly earnings from banks helped lift sentiment. Malaysia shares eased 0.1 percent after a record close for the fourth straight session as investors piled into banking stocks.

  Stear said Southeast Asian markets largely benefitted from how investors, worried about China's growth outlook, were putting money elsewhere in Asia, where they saw better prospects. But Southeast Asian markets look expensive and when worries about China subside, investors may pull money out of them and return to China, he said.

  " International fund managers are increasing their allocation to this part of the world, but there is little reason for investors to come into the market now," said Hong Hao, chief strategist with Bank of Communications International Securities, referring to Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong.

  Japan's Nikkei average closed up 1 percent, bouncing back from profit-taking the day before when the Bank of Japan's easing steps largely matched expectations.

  CURRENCIES RANGE-BOUND

  The yen came off a one-week high of 79.275 yen against the dollar hit on Tuesday when the BOJ's latest easing measures spurred players to close their yen short positions. The dollar was last trading 0.1 percent lower at 79.52 yen.

  " Concerns over Japan's fiscal problems and deteriorating trade balance are behind the current phase of yen weakness and the BOJ easing is just one catalyst," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

  " So having cleared the post-BOJ positions, the dollar/yen will likely steady ahead of the U.S. jobs data and the U.S. presidential election," he said, adding that dollar/yen resistance was seen at 80.50 to 80.60 yen, a 50 percent retracement of the 2012 high of 84.187 hit in March and the year's low of 77.13 touched in September.

  The euro steadied at $1.2960, stuck to its $1.2800/$1.3200 range seen since mid-September.

  Traders said the single currency was unlikely to break out of that range until fresh news emerged from Europe to provide clear progress in its debt crisis management.

  Spain has yet to apply for an external rescue which would initiate the European Central Bank's bond buying programme to ease borrowing strains and global lenders haven't given Greece another tranche of bailout.

  Euro zone finance ministers will hold a conference call on Wednesday to discuss progress in negotiations on the revised Greek bailout but are not expected to make any decisions yet, two euro zone officials said on Tuesday.

  Oil prices recovered, with U.S. crude futures up 0.3 percent at $85.93 a barrel and Brent up 0.1 percent at $109.17 as investors waited to assess the impact from Sandy, which paralysed much of the U.S. East Coast region that consumes about one-quarter of the nation's total fuel.

  Asian credit markets firmed along with equities, narrowing the spread on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index by 5 basis points.
 
 
krisluke     31-Oct-2012 14:33  
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Brent hovers near $109 recovery eyed post Sandy
* Power outages, flooding hit U.S. East Coast after Sandy

  * Gasoline up on Bayway refinery restart delay, fire at BP's hydrotreater

  * Crude stockpiles up 2.1 million barrels last week -API

  * Coming Up: Germany retail sales for September 0700 GMT (Adds details, updates prices)

  By Florence Tan

  SINGAPORE, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Brent crude held steady near $109 a barrel on Wednesday after the huge storm Sandy whiplashed the U.S. East Coast, reducing fuel demand even as refineries in the region gradually resumed operation.

  Fuel supply in the storm-hit region is expected to bounce back quickly as most refineries emerged unscathed, but demand was likely to take a much bigger knock as roads and airports remained shut.

  Brent crude for December delivery was down 1 cent at $109.07 by 0441 GMT. The front-month contract is set to post its largest monthly fall since June as concerns about a global economic slowdown outweighed supply risks in the Middle East.

  U.S. crude for December edged up 19 cents to $85.87, on track for the biggest monthly loss since May.

  " We may have a rapid return of supply but the demand will be slower to recover," Tony Nunan, a risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp, said.

  Millions of people were left reeling in the aftermath of the winds and heavy rains of the massive storm on Tuesday, as New York City and many parts of the eastern United States struggled with flooding and extensive power outages.

  " This is really the last thing that the U.S. needed," Nunan said, adding that Americans without insurance to cover storm damages would have less spare cash to spend just as the world's largest economy was showing signs of recovery.

  The region's biggest refinery, in Philadelphia, and several others, were ramping up operations on Tuesday after escaping damage. But flooding at the region's second-largest refinery, Phillips 66's 238,000 barrel-per-day plant in Bayway, New Jersey, plus power glitches at two other plants and a key New Jersey terminal hub, slowed the recovery in fuel supplies.

  The outage at Bayway, nicknamed the " gasoline machine" for its key role in supplying motor fuel to the New York City area, and a fire at BP Plc's residual hydrotreater in Texas City, boosted gasoline prices. November gasoline futures, which expire later today, were up 2.54 percent at $2.7980 a gallon.

  Investors will continue to keep a close watch for any damage to oil infrastructure and on fuel demand after the storm.

  " It is still too early to tell whether there has been any significant damage to the network of oil terminals, pipelines, and trucking facilities in the region, but if logistics are damaged, oil prices will likely remain under selling pressure," ANZ analysts said in a note.

  The CME is set to resume floor trading of oil, natural gas and other commodities during normal hours on Wednesday at the NYMEX world headquarters in New York. But the U.S. Energy Department has delayed its weekly petroleum inventory report by a day to Thursday.

  U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, slightly more than expected, while distillate inventories dropped sharply even as refinery operations jumped, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. Analysts had expected crude stockpiles to rise by 1.5 million barrels. (Reporting by Florence Tan Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
 
 
krisluke     31-Oct-2012 14:31  
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Hong Kong shares seen bouncing off two-week low
Center of Hong Kong
HONG KONG, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares were set to bounce off a nearly two-week low on Wednesday, tracking an Asia-wide rise and helped by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China which posted a better-than-expected third-quarter net profit.

  On Tuesday, the Hang Seng Index ended down 0.4 percent at 21,428.6 points, its third-straight loss, pushing the benchmark to its lowest close since Oct. 17.

  Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei was up 1 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.1 percent at 0102 GMT.

  FACTORS TO WATCH:

  * Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (Chalco) , the country's top aluminium maker, posted its fourth straight quarterly net loss in the third quarter, hurt by low aluminium prices and rising costs.

  * PetroChina Co Ltd, the country's dominant oil and gas producer, posted a 33 percent fall in third-quarter profit, lagging forecasts, due to lower crude oil prices and losses from its natural gas import business.

  *Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (ICBC) , the world's biggest bank, reported a 15 percent rise in quarterly net profit, beating estimates, as interest margins widened due to increased demand for credit.

  * China Minsheng Bank Corp Ltd , the country's seventh-largest listed bank, said its third quarter profit amounted to 9.8 billion yuan.

  * Bank of Communications , China's fifth-biggest lender, said its third quarter profit rose 12 percent to 13.4 billion yuan.

  * Air China Ltd, the country's flagship airline, posted its strongest quarterly profit for the year, although down 16 percent on the year, as fuel prices retreated and foreign exchange losses narrowed. However, the carrier said the aviation industry still faced the challenges of high fuel prices and weak demand.

  * Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd , China's second-biggest brewer by volume, said its third-quarter net profit was largely unchanged from a year earlier as higher production costs offset a rise in beer sales.

  * Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd , China's sixth-largest car maker, said its third-quarter net profit fell 58 percent to 357 million yuan.

  * China Railway Construction Corporation Ltd said its third quarter net profit soared 41 pct.

  * China Railway Group Ltd said its third quarter net profit surged 65 pct to 1.9 billion yuan.

  * CITIC Securities Co , China's biggest listed brokerage, posted an 87 percent rise in quarterly earnings amid signs of bottoming out in the stock market.

  * China COSCO Holdings Ltd , the country's top shipping group, posted its smallest quarterly loss in more than a year after container shipping rates rose. It said a net loss for the whole year was possible as its bulk shipping segment remains weak.

  * China's Ping An , the world's second-largest life insurer by market value, posted a smaller than expected 21 percent rise in its third-quarter profit on Tuesday after intergrating the operations of Shenzhen Development Bank.

  * Profit growth at China's largest automaker SAIC Motor Corp slowed to its weakest rate in three and a half years, hit by a weakening economy and high fuel costs.

  *China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd said its third-quarter net profit fell 20 percent.

  * Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co Ltd, a top Chinese dairy firm, said its third-quarter net profit edged up 0.5 percent to 605 million yuan.

  * Chinese construction equipment maker Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co Ltd said its third-quarter net profit was flat at 1.3 billion yuan.

  *Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co Ltd , a unit of one of China's largest conglomerates Fosun International, said its net profit jumped 95 percent to 391 million yuan.

  * China Shipping Development Co Ltd said its third-quarter net profit fell 32 percent to 89.2 million yuan.

  * China's Zijin Mining may expand its refined copper production by 50 percent to 300,000 tonnes a year, the company's chairman, Chen Jinghe, told an industry conference on Tuesday.
 

 
krisluke     31-Oct-2012 14:30  
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Palm slips as high exports may do little to cut stocks
* Palm oil prices capped by high production and growing
stockpile -analyst
* October exports up 10.9 pct -ITS
* Indonesia will not change its policy tax structure
-official
* Palm oil's target adjusted to 2,468 ringgit -technicals

By Anuradha Raghu
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures
inched down on Wednesday as the strongest exports recorded for
this year may do little to cut into high stocks at a time when
output is surging in the world's second largest producer of the
edible oil.
Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services data showed that
Malaysian palm oil shipments climbed 10.9 percent to 1.6 million
tonnes -- the highest this year, although stocks are set to hit
another record beyond 2.48 million tonnes.
" Based on the shipment number, we will still end up with a
higher stockpile because October's production is still very
high," said OSK Research analyst Alvin Tai. " Exports rising
higher month-on-month is not surprising, but the quantum still
needs to be stronger."
By the midday break, the benchmark January contract
on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.3 percent to
2,494 ringgit ($816) per tonne.
Total traded volumes stood at 6,815 lots of 25 tonnes each,
nearly half of the usual 12,500 lots.
Technicals showed that the bearish target of 2,379 ringgit
per tonne for Malaysian palm oil has been adjusted to 2,468
ringgit based on its falling speed, said Reuters market analyst
Wang Tao.
Palm oil dropped to a two-week low earlier this week after
its biggest rival and top producer Indonesia planned to lower
monthly export taxes in November after international prices fell
this month.
The lower taxes will lift margins for Indonesians and shift
demand away from competing Malaysian products. Officials in
Jakarta said they will not alter their tax structure which is
aimed at driving its domestic palm oil downstream industry.
" The export tax structure is progressive and it has been
adjusted to fluctuated palm oil prices in the international
market," director general of agriculture-based industry Benny
Wachjudi said at an industry meeting.
" It is very different from the Malaysian government's export
tax policy. I am sure Malaysian export tax policy will not last
long because it is not adjusted to the development on palm oil
prices in the international market."
Brent crude held steady near $109 a barrel on Wednesday
after the huge storm Sandy whiplashed the U.S. East Coast,
reducing fuel demand even as refineries in the region gradually
resumed operation.
U.S. soyoil for December delivery inched up 0.3
percent in early Asian trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean
oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.2
percent by the midday break.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0526 GMT

Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL NOV2 2398 +6.00 2398 2398 26
MY PALM OIL DEC2 2440 -11.00 2440 2455 120
MY PALM OIL JAN3 2494 -7.00 2492 2506 4340
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY3 6972 -52.00 6950 7022 355296
CHINA SOYOIL MAY3 9022 +18.00 8980 9038 320390
CBOT SOY OIL DEC2 50.24 +0.15 50.07 50.40 6483
NYMEX CRUDE DEC2 85.85 +0.17 85.61 85.90 4544

Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

($1 = 3.0565 ringgit)

(Additional reporting by Yayat Supriatna in Jakarta Editing by
Niluksi Koswanage)
 
 
krisluke     24-Oct-2012 20:35  
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October 24, 2012 19:58 UTC+8

Crude Palm Oil Rebounds on Chinese Data, Likely Higher Demand



Crude palm-oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange rebounded Wednesday supported by an improvement in manufacturing data from China, the world’s largest palm-oil consumer after India, and forecasts for higher demand for exports.

The benchmark January contract at Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 1.5% higher at 2,578 ringgit a metric ton after moving in a MYR2,551-MYR2,578 range.

The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 49.1 in October compared with a final reading of 47.9 in September and is the highest reading since July, suggesting a likely further pick up in economic activity in the world's second-biggest economy on the back of more accommodative monetary conditions and increasing infrastructure investment.

Market sentiment also got a boost from expectations that palm-oil shipments between Oct. 1 and Oct. 25 probably rose 10% to around 1.29 million tons, a trading executive at a Singapore-based bank said. The executive tipped palm oil to trade in a MYR2,550-MYR2,600/ton range as investors may square off positions ahead of the long weekend. Malaysian markets will be closed Friday for a public holiday.

Firm exports along with potential disruption to harvests from annual floods in important growing regions of Malaysia may prevent further buildup of stockpiles. These hit an all-time high of 2.48 million tons at the end of September.

Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., issue Oct. 1-25 shipments Thursday.

In the cash market, refined palm olein for January/February/March shipment was traded at $875/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, a physical broker in Singapore said.

Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered at MYR2,440/ton.

Open interest on the BMD was 140,311 lots, versus 151,330 lots Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 20,953 lots of CPO were traded versus 33,116 lots Tuesday. 
Ending BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton: 

Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low
Nov'12  2,468     2,437     +31  2,468  2,440
Dec'12  2,539     2,496     +43  2,536  2,511
Jan'13  2,578     2,540     +38  2,576  2,551
Feb'13  2,614     2,571     +43  2,610  2,588


Write to Shie-Lynn Lim at shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 24, 2012 07:58 ET (11:58 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
 
 
krisluke     24-Oct-2012 05:42  
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Worries over earnings and Spain hit European shares
Euro currency is pictured with a calculator and dice showing BUY
* FTSEurofirst 300 closes down 1.7 pct at 1,088.71 points

  * Euro STOXX 50 falls 2.1 pct to 2,477.92 points

  * Concerns over Spain and weak corporate results hit markets

  * Some traders back going " short" on European equities

  By Sudip Kar-Gupta

  LONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - A top European share index slid to its lowest level in more than one-and-a-half months on Tuesday, hit by worries over company results and Spain's debt crisis, and some traders bet on European stocks falling further.

  The FTSEurofirst 300 index ended down 1.7 percent at 1,088.71 points - its lowest closing level since ending at 1,079.24 points on Sept. 5.

  The euro zone's blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index also fell 2.1 percent to 2,477.92 points, while the Euro STOXX 50 implied volatility index rose 10 percent, highlighting investors' concerns over the market outlook.

  This marked the worst day for euro zone stocks and the biggest rise for implied volatility since Sept. 26, when violent anti-austerity protests hit Spain and Greece.

  The borrowing costs of Spain, which is under pressure to seek a sovereign bailout, rose on Tuesday after credit rating agency Moody's downgraded five Spanish regions.

  Although European stock markets have rallied from July onwards, when world central banks unveiled new quantitative easing (QE) measures to fight off the economic slowdown, they have fallen back from peaks reached in mid-September.

  " If the markets can fall even in the face of fresh QE, it does not bode well," said Richard Edwards, who runs trading and analytics firm HED Capital.

  Edwards recommended investors bet on further falls on Spain's IBEX and Italy's FTSE MIB equity indexes by going " short" on both markets, and added Germany's DAX stock market could lose more ground. ^

  COMPANY EARNINGS MISSING FORECASTS

  The IBEX fell 1.6 percent, while Italy's FTSE MIB declined by 1.8 percent. The DAX retreated by 2.1 percent to 7,173.69 points, and fell below the 50-day simple moving average level, which some traders took as a sign it could fall further.

  " European stock markets have been relatively muted in terms of their movement in recent weeks, but all the usual concerns over the peripheral countries could easily come back into focus at any time if there is another catalyst," said Dale Briscoe, head of investment advisory firm World Vision Strategies.

  Along with persistent worries over the euro zone debt crisis, with Greece struggling to meet the terms of its bailout while Italy remains in the firing line along with Spain, weak company results have also hit equities.

  Swedish engineer Alfa Laval was the worst-performing stock on the FTSEurofirst 300 index, declining by 5.7 percent after its orders fell more than expected during the third quarter.

  Nick Xanders, head of European equity strategy at broker BTIG, said there was a risk of the Euro STOXX 50 index retracing back towards its late-August low of 2,400 points after failing to break out of the 2,400-2,600 range.

  Adrian Slack, head of equities at Bastion Capital, also felt the DAX could fall to around 7,033 points and added that buying equities on a stock market dip was now getting riskier.

  " I would sell into strength rather than buy on the dip," he said.
 
 
krisluke     24-Oct-2012 05:40  
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As China tensions simmer, Japan pulls back from 'world's factory'
By James Topham and Izumi Nakagawa

  TOKYO, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Almost a quarter of Japanese manufacturers are rethinking their investment plans in China and some may shift future production elsewhere after the spike in tensions between Asia's two largest economies.

  The sentiments were expressed in a Reuters Corporate Survey released on Wednesday and in interviews conducted in recent weeks with executives in industries ranging from electronics to apparel manufacturing.

  The concerns suggest the recent rift between China and Japan over disputed islands in the East China Sea could mark the end of a boom that has played out over two decades in which Japanese companies have emerged as the most active source of outside direct investment in China after Hong Kong and Taiwan.

  Since 1990, Japanese companies led by electronics makers like Panasonic Corp and followed by a wave of automakers like Nissan Motor Corp and Toyota Motor Corp and their suppliers have poured almost $1 trillion into Chinese factories, Japanese government statistics show.

  The investment by over 20,000 firms created over 1.6 million jobs as Japanese companies looked to take advantage of low production costs and then China's potential as a surging market for everything from cars to cosmetics.

  Now, sentiment has turned. When asked if their attitude toward using China as a production hub over the medium term had changed, 37 percent of Japanese companies surveyed said they had grown more cautious.

  Almost half of Japanese manufacturers said they expected to see lower sales in the current fiscal year. In response to a separate question, 24 percent said they were considering delaying or reducing planned investment in China. Eighteen percent said they were considering shifting production to other countries.

  The survey allowed companies responding to pick more than one choice to describe the impact of the China dispute on their business, meaning there could be some overlap between the group of manufacturers considering cutting investment and those looking to other markets outside China as future production hubs.

  " China is very convenient, but gradually that convenience has been fading," Yoshihisa Ejiri, 65, president of clothing chain Honeys Co told Reuters.

  The Reuters survey of 400 Japanese companies took place between Oct. 1 and Oct. 17. A month earlier, almost 60 percent of firms in a Reuters survey said they expected little to no fallout from the strains with China. Companies were not asked if they were considering delaying or reducing planned investment in China in that poll.

  " The level of the anti-Japan demonstrations was different this time and I think that will make it harder for companies that have been successful in China to continue operating there," said Hisayoshi Hashimoto, a professor at Japan's National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

  SOUTHEAST ASIA AN ALTERNATIVE?

  The 267 Japanese companies that responded to the Reuters Corporate Survey did so on the condition they not be named.

  In separate interviews, several executives, including Ejiri, the Honeys president, said they expected to point new investment to Southeast Asia and largely untapped markets like Myanmar.

  Ejiri is determined to reduce his company's reliance on China, where Honeys now sources 90 percent of the clothing it sells. In the first step to diversify, Honeys began making skinny jeans -- a hot-selling item this summer -- in Myanmar.

  Tyre maker Toyo Tire & Rubber Co has also said it is considering shifting investment aimed for China to Malaysia, where it is building a plant and owns a local firm.

  Analysts and executives said the shift from China would come first for low-margin businesses where labour costs are crucial, like clothing and household electrical products.

  For manufacturers that depend on sales in China, like Japanese car and auto parts makers, there is no choice but to slow production and hope the anti-Japanese sentiment subsides and inventories can be sold down, they said.

  " Things made in China for the domestic market will stay, but for things made in China to export, the advantages, starting with labour costs, are declining," said Isamu Wakamatsu, a Southeast Asia specialist at the government-affiliated Japan External Trade Organisation.

  For nearly a decade , Japanese business strategists have been talking up a " China Plus One" strategy -- a policy of managing risk by locating plants and facilities in China and one other Asian nation.

  The latest wave of protests in China that broke after Japan nationalised two uninhabited East China Sea islands also claimed by Beijing has made the topic more urgent, analysts and executives say.

  GO TO CHINA, OR GO BUST?

  Honeys started production in China in the early 1990s, a time when Japanese firms led by consumer technology leaders like Panasonic, NEC Corp and Sharp Corp were rushing in.

  " China is vast with a huge population and a strong infrastructure, beginning with the cotton-spinning. It's all there. For Japanese fabric-makers, the choice has been go bankrupt or move to China," said Ejiri.

  Over time, the world's two biggest economies after the United States grew to complement each other, with China becoming " the world's factory" and Japan supplying many of the components needed for assembly. Two-way trade grew 14 percent to a record $345 billion in 2011.

  Interest in the " China Plus One" strategy starting picking up after the outbreak of the SARS disease that sharply affected China for several weeks in 2002. It was a regular topic in Japanese business circles in 2005, following a wave of anti-Japan demonstrations in China that year.

  For Honeys, which has more than 800 outlets in Japan and over 500 in China, rapidly rising wages in China had become a concern even before the recent political tensions. When Honeys started in China in 1991, workers making its clothing made about $65 a month, about one-seventh of what they earn today.

  The territorial dispute between Japan and China added a new flashpoint. When workers returned to plants run by Canon Inc and Casio Computer Co last month after the factories were shuttered because of the anti-Japanese protests, they also demanded higher wages, company representatives said.

  " Labour costs (in Myanmar) are one-fifth of what China is," Ejiri said, adding that Myanmar also has no export duties for clothing, unlike China.

  For 2011, Japanese direct investment in the Southeast Asian region surpassed China by a margin of almost 50 percent, according to data from Japan's finance ministry.

  Experts and company executives say it will take years before Southeast Asia can compete with China on factors that are harder to measure than payrolls, like a large pool of skilled talent and a developed network of suppliers.

  Component maker Yamaichi Electronics Co found that out in 2010 when it built a new production line for connectors in the Philippines, to help it hedge its risk in China.

  " In Shenzhen, all electronics parts are in the area. Japan makers, China makers, everything you need is right there. It's not like that in the Philippines," said a Yamaichi executive who spoke on the condition he not be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

  Ejiri, whose Myanmar plant is operating at 60 percent of capacity, agreed. He said he expects it will take a decade for Southeast Asia to match China for efficiency, but he is prepared to be patient. The long-term goal is for Myanmar to account for 20 percent of Honeys' production.

  " The buttons, the zippers, only China can do that cheaply," he said. " Since the materials are there, the goods end up getting assembled there, and that will take some time to change."

  The Reuters Corporate Survey was conducted for Thomson Reuters by Nikkei Research. Target companies were split evenly between manufacturing and non-manufacturing with 60 of those in retail and wholesale and another 55 in electronics and precision equipment. Not all companies responded to every question.
 
 
krisluke     24-Oct-2012 05:39  
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Oil slumps on growth concerns, corporate forecast cuts
* DuPont's earnings forecast, job cuts weigh on oil

  * Brent tests support at 100-day moving average

  * U.S. crude stocks likely rose last week - analyst poll

  * Coming Up: EIA oil data 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday (Adds API data paragraphs 18-21)

  By Robert Gibbons

  NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday as slowing global economic growth, Europe's continuing debt crisis and weak earnings forecasts from U.S. corporations pressured commodities and equities.

  Brent fell for a sixth straight session and U.S. crude was down for a fourth consecutive day to settle at a three-month low.

  Evidence of slowing economic growth and an improving crude oil supply picture continued to counter any potential lift from Middle East turmoil and Iran's dispute with Israel and the West over Tehran's nuclear program.

  Chemical company DuPont lowered its earnings forecast, announced 1,500 job cuts and posted lower-than-expected profit, pressuring equities, oil and other commodities.

  The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a gauge widely followed by commodity investors, fell 1.2 percent.

  DuPont's gloomy outlook came a day after heavy machinery maker Caterpillar Inc warned that the U.S. economy was slowing faster than expected.

  Rising Spanish borrowing costs and slumping business morale in France's manufacturing sector added to concerns about Europe's debt crisis and sputtering economic growth.

  " The main bearish driver is the state of the economy," said Filip Petersson, an analyst at SEB in Stockholm. " And that's taken all markets down quite a bit."

  TransCanada Corp's Monday restart of its Keystone pipeline carrying crude oil from Canada to the United States added pressure on oil futures.

  Brent December crude fell $1.19 to settle at $108.25 a barrel, its lowest settlement since Oct. 3. It slumped to $107.31, its lowest level since Sept. 20 and below the 100-day moving average of $107.42.

  U.S. December crude fell $1.98 to settle at $86.67 a barrel, its lowest settlement since July 12. Tuesday's low trade was $85.69.

  Tuesday's move lower left U.S. crude poised " for a test on the 61.8 percent retracement of the $77.28 to $100.42 move at $86.12, and possibly below," Michael Fitzpatrick, editor-in-chief, wrote in the industry newsletter EnergyOverview.

  REFINED PRODUCTS FUTURES

  U.S. refined products futures extended multiday slides, with front-month RBOB gasoline futures off for a ninth straight session. They fell 4.25 cents to settle at $2.6050 a gallon, off 35.43 cents from its $2.9593 settlement on Oct. 10.

  Front-month heating oil traded lower for the eighth straight session, dropping 3.33 cents to settle at $3.0434 a gallon, down 21.37 cents from Oct. 11 when it closed at $3.2571 a gallon.

  Falling distillate inventories, especially in the U.S. Northeast, the country's biggest heating oil market, had stirred concerns about a potential fuel shortfall as winter approached.

  But analysts said tepid demand for refined products and healthy crude oil inventories were weighing on gasoline and distillate prices.

  " I think the judgment of the market is that, while (distillate) inventories are still low, they are likely to rise," said Tim Evans, energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

  U.S. OIL INVENTORIES

  U.S. crude oil stocks rose 313,000 barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said in a report late on Tuesday, a smaller build than expected.

  Gasoline stocks rose 181,000 barrels and distillate stockpiles fell 890,000 barrels, the API said.

  Crude stockpiles were expected to have risen 1.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 19, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

  Gasoline stocks were expected to be up 700,000 barrels, with distillate stocks seen down 900,000 barrels.

  The government's report from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will follow on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

  SUPPLY THREATS

  The slide in crude prices on Tuesday came even as the potential remains for Middle East turmoil to disrupt the region's oil supply.

  Iran said on Tuesday it would stop oil exports if pressure from Western sanctions got any tighter and that it had a " Plan B" contingency strategy to survive without oil revenues.

  Major powers may ask Iran for stricter limits on its nuclear work if it wants an easing of harsh sanctions - a long-shot approach aimed at yielding a negotiated solution, according to Western diplomats.

  Syrian rebels were attempting to seize an army base close to the main north-south highway, hoping to create a " safe zone" allowing them to focus on President Bashar al-Assad's southern strongholds. (Additional reporting by Matthew Robinson in New York, Peg Mackey in London and Manash Goswami in Singapore Editing by Marguerita Choy, Alden Bentley, John Wallace and Jim Marshall)
 
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