QUICK MARKET COMMENTARY
                   
     
(Posted: April 24, 2013)
 
 


Daily Bars
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
  Commodity Analysis: No change – “After nearly retracing the entire 4/15 decline, gold reversed at the downward sloping line that connects the record high and February 2012 high (2/29/12 was a $105 down day high to low). That line provided support in late August 2012 (8/31/12 was $47 up day high to low) as well. If gold is headed lower over the next few weeks then it needs to stay below this line. Strength above would shift focus to the December 2011 low at 1522.”
 
Commodity Trading Strategy: Short against 1500, for a new low, specifically the 2011 low at 1307.
 
LEVELS: 1405 1439 1448 1485 1495 1523
Gold and Silver prices gave up some gains in overnight trading,  joining U.S. stock futures as mostly flat this morning.  Investors are waiting to hear the result of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting this week.  Expectations for the meeting are for the Fed to continue with the third round of quantitative easing, as unemployment and inflation rates are still missing the Fed’s targets.
“Paper Gold,” or the popular exchange-traded funds backed by the metal, continues to lose steam as outflows are  signaling that day-traders are losing interest.  Tim Riddell of ANZ Global Markets Research said, “From a technical point of view, although the rebound has been relatively solid, it appears to be a more sustained correction of the fall that we saw from late March.”  Many investors still believe the fundamental reasons for owning Gold are still very much intact, however, as evidenced by the extremely high demand for the physical product.  As popular as physical Gold has been, Silver coins and bars are even more scarce as demand has risen exponentially over the past few weeks.
At 9:23 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
Daily Bars
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Commodity Analysis: After nearly retracing the entire 4/15 decline, gold reversed at the downward sloping line that connects the record high and February 2012 high (2/29/12 was a $105 down day high to low). That line provided support in late August 2012 (8/31/12 was $47 up day high to low) as well. If gold is headed lower over the next few weeks then it needs to stay below this line. Strength above would shift focus to the December 2011 low at 1522.
 
Commodity Trading Strategy: Short against 1500, for a new low, specifically the 2011 low at 1307.
 
LEVELS: 1405 1439 1448 1485 1495 1523
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It’s been five years since the onset of the global financial crisis, and since then, economies have been conditioned to rely upon their central banks for stimulus. The eurozone is in recession, and momentum is building for the ECB to cut interest rates this week. If the bank does cut rates, it would be the first time since July 2012. If they don’t cut rates, a cut in June is almost a certainty.Stephen King, global chief economist for HSBC in London, said,  “I would argue that the ECB should be thinking of easing policy whether they are currently is more debatable.” The main factor King sees is what is affecting Germany. Germany is being affected by weakness in Southern Europe and slowing growth in China as well as the depreciation of the Japanese Yen.
Gold added back more than one percent of its value in overnight trading as the U.S. dollar weekend against a basket of six major global currencies.  A weaker dollar often helps support commodity prices by making them cheaper for holders of other currencies.  At the same time, strong physical demand has encouraged one HSBC economist to write that India’s Gold “love affair” was likely to increase the volume of the country’s imports after the recent slump in prices. Gold isn’t the only metal on the rise Silver rose 2.3 percent while Platinum added 1.4 percent.
At 9:00 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
The Gold price spiked briefly this morning after the release of the first quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) report. Economists expected to see 3.0 percent growth, and  investors were disappointed with a 2.5 percent reading. U.S. stock futures added to losses on the news. One potential result of this report is the continuation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program, which has historically been a boon to Precious Metals prices.
In overnight trading,  Gold rose over the $1,485 per ounce mark. IG Markets Ltd. chief market strategist Chris Weston said, “The prospect of emerging market central bank buying and strong physical demand has put a bid in the market and reminded everyone that it’s not all about speculators.” The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of currencies and only added to those losses after the GDP report was released. Gold is on track for a five percent weekly gain after the recent selloff saw the price down by 11 percent.
At 9:16 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
Daily Bars
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
 
Commodity Analysis: Gold has reached the 20 day midpoint (1465) and top of the rising wedge (connect the tops of 4/16 and 4/22. Of note as well is the downward sloping line that connects the record high and February 2012 high (2/29/12 was a $105 down day high to low). That line provided support in late August 2012 (8/31/12 was $47 up day high to low). The line is at about 1477 on Friday.
 
Commodity Trading Strategy: Triggered short at 1459, stop is above 4/15 high (1495), target is new lows and specifically the 2011 low at 1307
LEVELS: 1367 1405 1439 1477 1495 1523