Olam Intl   

OLAM_OLAM

Sudden hike in interest and price. Almost certain tonight  will be a great night for all Olam investors.

 

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 11:12) Posted: Shall see tonight result. Olam is profitable unlike NOL. Both different story, don't compare. Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 02:34) Posted:

 

Shall see tonight result.

Olam is profitable unlike NOL. Both different story, don't compare.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 02:34) Posted: Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 02:16) Posted: Ok my forecast for tomorrow result: profit growth 20%=> Minimum Maximum > 50% If 1 or 2 is true, bull run is visible within 2 months time If 1 and 2 are not true, bull run is adjourned to next June. Alot of people  might think that by cutting capital expenditure  Olam is REALLY going to drop the profit target of 1B- as in miss the target by alot. But from what I see olam has been doing for the past few months, I don't think so. Olam is still on track to it. Sunny is indeed a smart guy. MW force him to cut leverage=> ROE fall, target missed. But he comes up with another way to maintain the ROE=> INCREASE ROA!!!!! How he increase ROA? OPERATING LEASE :) ROE maintained. 1 Billion target profit still on track. The above is just my forecast. NOT A BUY CALL

 

In 2010, Olam paid $389m to buy almond orchards valued by Olam at $413m (incl $216m of intangible assets) thereby realising $24m instantly. Now it wants to sell these, or a part thereof, for A$200m?

Any keen mkt observer will know sell and lease back are often done by companies which are not in good shape, eg NOL selling its HQ last year.

 

Hi, I guess most of us read the below report.....its has " executing on its plan to cut spending and sell assets" ..
If you add up the numbers below it shows the management is serious and has done a good job to free up assets and cut spending. In fact it has generate positive cash flow from here...

With a BV of 1.54, P/BV of 0.95 and hopefully a recovery of the commodity market....the rest is up to the market....: ))

 

 

Olam International, the commodity supplier backed by Singapore?s Temasek Holdings Pte, said it agreed to sell and lease-back its almond orchards in Australia for A$200 million ($232 million) in cash.

Nearly 12,000 hectares (30,000 acres) of orchards will be sold to Adveq Almond Trust, owned by a group of investors led by Adveq Real Assets Harvested Resources LP, Singapore-based Olam said today in a statement. Under the agreement, Olam will lease- back the orchard land, trees, and infrastructure for 18 years, a deal which could be extended or renewed, it said.

Olam, which sells commodities from rice to cocoa, is executing on its plan to cut spending and sell assets, as part of a business review in April that followed allegations by short-seller Muddy Waters LLC questioning its finances. Executive Director Anantharaman Shekhar said in August that Olam is focusing on generating cash flow and reducing the pace of its investments.

?Though we will no longer own the land, trees or the farming infrastructure, we continue to retain the production economics of the entire almond harvest from these orchards,? Shekhar said in the statement.

Olam said it expects to book a gain after tax of about A$45 million when the transaction is completed in the first quarter of 2014. The company will continue to own water rights to the land, and its almond processing plant, it said. The company is due to report quarterly earnings tomorrow.

The company said in a Nov. 1 statement it sold its Dirranbandi cotton gin in Queensland to Cubbie Ginnery Pty for A$20 million, in line with a strategy to redeploy capital to higher growth areas.

Earlier this year, the company sold its basmati rice mill in India for US$14.5 million. It also said in February it sold, and leased back, almond orchards in California, which boosted second-quarter profit by $18.1 million.

 

Sign of trouble ahead...almond orchards are money making sectort yet they are selling bcos the company want to raise money and also to record profit in the financial quarter.

SELL!

 

 

Unlikely to see $3.20. $1.98 is possible.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 12:12) Posted: Lol, Olam is one of the most heavily shorted STI component counter. If short squeeze can easily return to previous price ($3.20) and above=> > > Mostly likely can reach  $3.60. But don't greedy, once $3.20 hit can throw already. Be disciplined. I waiting nia.   Look at the number of thumbs down we recieved. Shortists hate us lol.

 

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 02:16) Posted: Ok my forecast for tomorrow result: profit growth 20%=> Minimum Maximum > 50% If 1 or 2 is true, bull run is visible within 2 months time If 1 and 2 are not true, bull run is adjourned to next June. Alot of people  might think that by cutting capital expenditure  Olam is REALLY going to drop the profit target of 1B- as in miss the target by alot. But from what I see olam has been doing for the past few months, I don't think so. Olam is still on track to it. Sunny is indeed a smart guy. MW force him to cut leverage=> ROE fall, target missed. But he comes up with another way to maintain the ROE=> INCREASE ROA!!!!! How he increase ROA? OPERATING LEASE :) ROE maintained. 1 Billion target profit still on track. The above is just my forecast. NOT A BUY CALL. Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 01:41) Posted: Tomorrow report coming after trading hours. Should be good news-eyeing 20% profit growth

 

Ok my forecast for tomorrow result:

1. profit growth 20%=> Minimum
2. Maximum > 50%
3. If 1 or 2 is true, bull run is visible within 2 months time
4. If 1 and 2 are not true, bull run is adjourned to next June.
5. Alot of people  might think that by cutting capital expenditure  Olam is REALLY going to drop the profit target of 1B- as in miss the target by alot.
6. But from what I see olam has been doing for the past few months, I don't think so. Olam is still on track to it.
• Sunny is indeed a smart guy. MW force him to cut leverage=> ROE fall, target missed.
• But he comes up with another way to maintain the ROE=> INCREASE ROA!!!!!
• How he increase ROA?
• OPERATING LEASE :)
• ROE maintained. 1 Billion target profit still on track.

The above is just my forecast. NOT A BUY CALL.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 01:41) Posted: Tomorrow report coming after trading hours. Should be good news-eyeing 20% profit growth. Rosesyrup      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 13:50) Posted: Chinese Idom: Use a long line to catch a big fish

 

Tomorrow report coming after trading hours.

Should be good news-eyeing 20% profit growth.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 13:50) Posted: Chinese Idom: Use a long line to catch a big fish   nngeeh      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 13:41) Posted: I just checked the SGX lending Pool, and it is showing that there are only 34 lots for lending. If you look at the url below dated 30 Nov 2012, Olam is the most borrowed stock among Singapore's top 30 companies. Judging from the SGX lending pool, this status has not changed for the  past 1 year. The shortist who borrowed the share to short will be incurring huge cost (6%), and with Temasek's backing which will prevent the share price from going below 1.40 (Temasek came in to buy last year when the price when below 1.4), it will be a matter of time when the shortist will need to buy back the share. I am guessing (my own thought) that once we  see that  the availability of the lending stock is increasing steadily, it should be the right time to go in.  It  will be interesting to see if there is any spike on the 1 year anniversary of Muddy water's attack. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/olam-muddywaters-idUSL4N0900Q220121120

 

Chinese Idom: Use a long line to catch a big fish



 

nngeeh      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 13:41) Posted: I just checked the SGX lending Pool, and it is showing that there are only 34 lots for lending. If you look at the url below dated 30 Nov 2012, Olam is the most borrowed stock among Singapore's top 30 companies. Judging from the SGX lending pool, this status has not changed for the  past 1 year. The shortist who borrowed the share to short will be incurring huge cost (6%), and with Temasek's backing which will prevent the share price from going below 1.40 (Temasek came in to buy last year when the price when below 1.4), it will be a matter of time when the shortist will need to buy back the share. I am guessing (my own thought) that once we  see that  the availability of the lending stock is increasing steadily, it should be the right time to go in.  It  will be interesting to see if there is any spike on the 1 year anniversary of Muddy water's attack. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/olam-muddywaters-idUSL4N0900Q220121120   jwblue      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 11:57) Posted: If there is a short squeeze, what is the best strategy for current shareholders?   I am a long term investor, but at the same time I would like to make a profit in the case of a short squeeze.   When the stock reaches its high point, what percentage or price will it fall and settle?

 

I just checked the SGX lending Pool, and it is showing that there are only 34 lots for lending.

If you look at the url below dated 30 Nov 2012, Olam is the most borrowed stock among Singapore's top 30 companies. Judging from the SGX lending pool, this status has not changed for the  past 1 year. The shortist who borrowed the share to short will be incurring huge cost (6%), and with Temasek's backing which will prevent the share price from going below 1.40 (Temasek came in to buy last year when the price when below 1.4), it will be a matter of time when the shortist will need to buy back the share.

I am guessing (my own thought) that once we  see that  the availability of the lending stock is increasing steadily, it should be the right time to go in.  It  will be interesting to see if there is any spike on the 1 year anniversary of Muddy water's attack.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/olam-muddywaters-idUSL4N0900Q220121120

 

jwblue      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 11:57) Posted: If there is a short squeeze, what is the best strategy for current shareholders?   I am a long term investor, but at the same time I would like to make a profit in the case of a short squeeze.   When the stock reaches its high point, what percentage or price will it fall and settle?  nngeeh      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 09:36) Posted: Sis, I think your assumption below could be happening soon. I am looking at the price of the Olam warrant today, and there is hardly any sellers. I like to look at warrant, especially those with large exercise price (and with big premium). The trading pattern of these type of warrants give a good indication of the future price of the mother share. At the moment, the buying price is USD$0.220 (equivalent to mother share's price of    1.88), and the sellers are queueing at USD0.29 (equvalent to mother share's price of 1.975). The fact is that all the major Shareholders participated in the rights exercise, but there is hardly any sellers willing to let go even though the warrant is " out of the money" and knowing that the price of the warrant might drop in 1 year's time if it is still " out of money" . I believe those who are holding on to the warrant is expecting the olam price to go up soon.

 

Lol,

Olam is one of the most heavily shorted STI component counter. If short squeeze can easily return to previous price ($3.20) and above=> > > Mostly likely can reach  $3.60. But don't greedy, once $3.20 hit can throw already. Be disciplined. I waiting nia.

 

Look at the number of thumbs down we recieved. Shortists hate us lol.

 

If there is a short squeeze, what is the best strategy for current shareholders?

  I am a long term investor, but at the same time I would like to make a profit in the case of a short squeeze.

  When the stock reaches its high point, what percentage or price will it fall and settle? 

nngeeh      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 09:36) Posted: Sis, I think your assumption below could be happening soon. I am looking at the price of the Olam warrant today, and there is hardly any sellers. I like to look at warrant, especially those with large exercise price (and with big premium). The trading pattern of these type of warrants give a good indication of the future price of the mother share. At the moment, the buying price is USD$0.220 (equivalent to mother share's price of    1.88), and the sellers are queueing at USD0.29 (equvalent to mother share's price of 1.975). The fact is that all the major Shareholders participated in the rights exercise, but there is hardly any sellers willing to let go even though the warrant is " out of the money" and knowing that the price of the warrant might drop in 1 year's time if it is still " out of money" . I believe those who are holding on to the warrant is expecting the olam price to go up soon.   Rosesyrup      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:01) Posted: I believe you have yet to take into account the following: Short squeeze when shortists are routing panicly. The stage is already set for short squeeze to happen, just need a spark and the fire go wild. Huge funds who have exited Olam after MW's attack. These funds will come back once Olam is off their blacklist. New commodity run in thrid world nations. With all these factors, $3.20 is not a dream

 

Sis,

I think your assumption below could be happening soon. I am looking at the price of the Olam warrant today, and there is hardly any sellers. I like to look at warrant, especially those with large exercise price (and with big premium). The trading pattern of these type of warrants give a good indication of the future price of the mother share. At the moment, the buying price is USD$0.220 (equivalent to mother share's price of    1.88), and the sellers are queueing at USD0.29 (equvalent to mother share's price of 1.975). The fact is that all the major Shareholders participated in the rights exercise, but there is hardly any sellers willing to let go even though the warrant is " out of the money" and knowing that the price of the warrant might drop in 1 year's time if it is still " out of money" .

I believe those who are holding on to the warrant is expecting the olam price to go up soon.

 

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:01) Posted: I believe you have yet to take into account the following: Short squeeze when shortists are routing panicly. The stage is already set for short squeeze to happen, just need a spark and the fire go wild. Huge funds who have exited Olam after MW's attack. These funds will come back once Olam is off their blacklist. New commodity run in thrid world nations. With all these factors, $3.20 is not a dream. nngeeh      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 12:03) Posted: I'm with you on this (but i thinking more of the TP of 2+). From the recent interview with MW, it seems that they are still holding to the short position, but i think they will be looking for the right time to buy back without the whole Market joining in (which will push it much higher due to short squeeze). Based on the warrant pricing that didn't drop below 0.20, and the fact that  all the  major shareholders didn't offload the warrant (based on the warrant transaction volume for the past 1 year), i believe most of the shareholders are expecting it to go above $2. It's almost 1 year since the MW attack, and i think everyone is just waiting for the right moment to go in, maybe the moment that MW start buying back  (my view)

 

Coming down. Maybe towards 1.4

 

Price like creeping down slowly. See Monday what's the outcome.

 

I did not mean to sound confrontational. 

I merely wanted to show that I agree with what you said.

I just can't imagine management doing the wrong thing.

 

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 00:59) Posted: That's my point. If they choose to pay large dividend when in fact  paying down debt is a better option, then something is fishy. jwblue      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 00:17) Posted: Management is not dumb.   If they can afford to pay a large dividend, they will.   Determining whether a large dividend can be paid vs. paying down debt is a simple math equation.

 

Oic, thks sis and good night.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 23:59) Posted: Nothing much. It is just that Olam has got high debt. Investors would rather olam reduce its debt with cash rather than paying dividends. Especially after MW's attack on olam's debt issue and interest rate is expected to rise. To Olam's management team, payment of small divdends, after the MW incident, is necessary  to secure investors' confident  in the  company's ability to generate cashflow and dispell any rumours about it's liquidity problem. However, if Olam were to continue giving out large dividend rather than  repaying debts:   Reflect badly on management's foresight and capability Olam's claimed that operating cashflow only comes in in 2014. If it is able to pay huge cash dividend now, where did all that cash comes from? Why not reduce debt with that cash or reinvest it? Why is the management is willing to go so far to shore up investor confident? Is it giving invesotrs a false sense of security? It kind of reinforce MW's claim that something fishy is going on. Lets see what happen on AGM. If they announce huge dividend again, I think I have to review my assessment again. beginners      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 23:33) Posted: Hi Sis, can share with me your view? Thks

 

That's my point. If they choose to pay large dividend when in fact  paying down debt is a better option, then something is fishy.

jwblue      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 00:17) Posted: Management is not dumb.   If they can afford to pay a large dividend, they will.   Determining whether a large dividend can be paid vs. paying down debt is a simple math equation.         Rosesyrup      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 23:59) Posted: Nothing much. It is just that Olam has got high debt. Investors would rather olam reduce its debt with cash rather than paying dividends. Especially after MW's attack on olam's debt issue and interest rate is expected to rise. To Olam's management team, payment of small divdends, after the MW incident, is necessary  to secure investors' confident  in the  company's ability to generate cashflow and dispell any rumours about it's liquidity problem. However, if Olam were to continue giving out large dividend rather than  repaying debts:   Reflect badly on management's foresight and capability Olam's claimed that operating cashflow only comes in in 2014. If it is able to pay huge cash dividend now, where did all that cash comes from? Why not reduce debt with that cash or reinvest it? Why is the management is willing to go so far to shore up investor confident? Is it giving invesotrs a false sense of security? It kind of reinforce MW's claim that something fishy is going on. Lets see what happen on AGM. If they announce huge dividend again, I think I have to review my assessment again