SPC   

SPC

err...determine how to short? well..i thk chking CRUDE OIL price at cnnfn.com is one way loh...hee

 

hey, nickyng,

how do u determine when its okay to short?
wat is your trading size?

 

HEE...looks like i can short today...ok who is with me to short SPC today? juz shorted earlier 4x at $4.14...hee...trying my luck again :P

 

I think the Saudi are fed up with the non-compliance of OPEC cuts, so there is no point in OPEC meeting up to discuss cutting production. Bloody members all talk and no action one.

 

oil has dropped to below $52. Might see sub $4 for very 1st time.

 

 

giantlow,

I do not short (sell then buy back the same day).

Most of my funds are based on FA.....research for undervalued stocks with good growth potential...accumulate and hold for capital appreciation and dividents. My philosophy is dividents should cover my opportunity cost of funds (i.e. interest I could have otherwise gotton if I put the money in a bank).

Adhering strictly to FA is very boring...so, at times I do punt.

When I punt, I always make sure I can pick up the shares...but, if opportunity presents itself, I will contra....sell before T+3.

In this particular SPC case, I monitored commentary on this thread when the counter was downtrending. I also monitored the daily 'buy up', 'sell down' balance. Most days, there were more 'sell down' transactions than 'buy up'. However, on Fri (12 Jan) afternoon, I noticed 'buy up' transactions were closing the gap on 'sell downs'. Hence, I queued to buy (4.04 - 4.06)

Immediately after mkt close on Fri, I queued to sell at 4.18 on Mon (15 Jan).......but I think it only hit 4.16 and closed 4.14 (+8cts). After close on Mon, I queued again to sell at 4.20 for Tues. Then the rest is history.

How I came to this decision???? I monitor this counter closely and for the past 3 years. So, I sort of got a gut feel for it. Also, I keep track of the FA.....so, even if I made the wrong punt,  my FA still justifies the price I bought at.

As to my trading size, lets just say I only trade what I can afford to pick up if I have to. I usually try to keep between 10% to 20% of my investment funds liquid for such purposes.

As to having to monitor the screens closely....yes, when time permits....and I usually have a fair bit of time at hand. But, the beauty of online trading is you can put in your orders after mkt closes the day before...and the next day, you will be at or near the head of the queue. I do some fine tunining the next morning before mkt opens...(in case major event happened overnight). So, with online trading, you can put in your bids off trading hours and let the mkt take its course.

 

Still on TA downtrend

 

Was hoping that it will close at 4.2 but it closes on yesterday's high at 4.14.  Hope this is not a dead cat bounce and that tomorrow high will be higher and tomorrow low higher as well.   Daily still bearish.

 

shplayer,

how do u determine at what price to short ah?

and also wat are your trading size for shorting?

shorting need to monitor the screens closely rite. u can afford the time ah?

 

Its finally freezing in America

Ice storms, snow, floods, tornado hit US, killing 25

Posted: 16 January 2007 1259 hrs

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/252778/1/.html

 

Yes, that will be the case.

 

Thanks for your clarification on contrarians and contra players.

So to cover the brokerage fees + cost, you are saying actually it is the total cost of dollar divided by the desired share price to determine how many lots to buy in correct?

Then it explains why less than 10 cents share contra players need buy in much more lots than say > $1 share.

 

sohguanh,

If you do your calcs, for online trading, assuming your brokerage fee is 0.275% or $25 (min) whichever is greater, then, as long as your trading volume is more than $25/0.00275= $9090.91, you will minimise you buy/sell cost. As a rule of thumb, I use 2/3 of 1% (0.67%) as my buy/sell cost.

So, to do contra, you don't really need BIG BIG volumes.....but be careful......with contra, time is against you.



On another topic, there is a difference between 'contrarians' and 'contra players'. The former are those who goes against market trends, whilst the latter are those who buy/sell within T+3.

 

Or maybe SGX should set new rules of game for share trading like Unit Trust? That is for every trade, money must come in FIRST before a trade is transacted. This will eliminate ALL contrarians and force them to take their game to CFD. CFD is specially tailored to cater to the needs of contrarians!!!!

Anyone support this notion? It is high time some decent trading is being performed in share market and not controlled by those contrarians :)

 

To add on another contrarian tactics is to create aware-ness of the stocks.. Sometimes they see no buy queue, they purposely act as seller but request only ONE lot and then sell ONE lot to that buy request to simulate trading traffic?

Then outsiders will be lured to that stock and fall into that trap buy queueing at the last sell price which is actually set by that contrarian.

Now I also begin to understand why sometimes 1 lot appear on the queue. This totally defeat the purpose of share market for serious investors?

Now I also know why Unit Trust eliminate all these tactics by requesting money must come in FIRST before buy units for you. So contrarians cannot find a good playground in Unit Trust.

Now again I hope contrarians go play with CFD and leave us serious investors to play the SGX market. This is more fair although I know there is no fair-ness in this world!!!! :)

 

So contra also need pay the buy and sell brokerage fees + other costs? I see now I know why contra players like to buy in 100 - 1000 lots each time. They want to average out so a few cents climb and due to mass quantity they can cover the brokerage fees + other costs with the remaining as their profits.

But this contra trading is depriving serious investors of a chance to get hold of the shares!!!! Nebermind I will take note of those contra and after T + 3 days I wait for them to throw and then I take in.

Hmmm.... typical shares trading tactics against contrarians :)

 

The broking house will pay (or I pay if contra is a loss) net of buying/selling less all fees. In my case, they pay into my account on T+3 of selling date.

 

Yes, you still need to pay brokerage fees + others costs when you contra. 

 

Just a question to ask when you all contra do you all still need to pay the brokerage fees for buy in and sell out? That is that $26++ to and fro? Or you all just take the difference of your buy-in and sell-out price?

The brokerage will then credit the difference into your trading account and tally it up for one whole month? Essentially playing stocks without paying any capital at all? Of course contra losses and gains will be calculated once a month correct?