SIA    Last:6.76    +0.02

A380 A Great Way to Fly

no thinking is required, despite the 80 cts on aug. sluggish is the word.

 

This stock depends on oil

It will be hit big time on Monday

 

Published June 6, 2008

Airlines start exiting routes to cut losses Qantas cuts capacity on Asian routes; SIA studies its options By VEN SREENIVASAN

...............

Singapore Airlines (SIA) said it has been doing regular six-monthly capacity reviews, but added that the high fuel cost environment had made the exercise even more critical.

'Singapore Airlines is not immune to the threat posed by high jet fuel prices,' said spokesman Stephen Forshaw. 'It highlights the need to continue our focus on cost discipline, and being nimble in managing capacity. Going forward, we will manage capacity deployment carefully, but also seek to ensure we can meet areas of demand which are still present in our markets.'

The airline recently pulled out of its lossmaking Taipei-Los Angeles and Bangkok-Osaka routes, but added capacity to China, India, Vietnam, Australia, Zurich, Paris, London and Moscow. It also plans to replace its ageing B747-400s with more fuel-efficient A380s and B787s.

But did SIA miscalculate in introducing its all-business class non- stop services to New York and Los Angeles at a time when the inevitable spike in ticket prices could further impact travel demand?

'The loads in the first couple of weeks on the all-business class A340-500 services to New York and back have been very impressive,' Mr Forshaw said. 'Most flights have had loads close to full since they started operating.'

But he added that SIA was not taking the softening economy in the US lightly, and was monitoring the situation carefully.

A record 24 airlines have collapsed worldwide in the last six months, including European all-business class carriers Silverjet and EOS and Hong Kong-based Oasis.

 

then mai thu leow loh.

 

although higher 'fuel surcharge' may reduce ;png hual. but dont worry, SIA is providing 'premium' service

i believe what CEO has promised, its sustainable of the 'dividen' for future.

 

no worry loh CEO yest said, the coy can sustain with the fuel hike, BT. If u think that it will drop 80cts by Aug, then leave this burger alone. But if u got confid on this burger, entry pt fr now, your choice.AK vested few, may acc later, just observe the CO goes.

 

Published June 4, 2008

Cost of air travel set to soar as industry bleeds Airlines may move towards mergers, but obvious hurdles stand in the way By VEN SREENIVASAN IN ISTANBUL

THE era of cheap airfares is over and consumers must adjust to the realities of higher airline operating costs.

'Consumers have to get used to higher airfares, just as they are getting used to higher commodity prices,' said Steve Udvar-Hazy, chairman and CEO of ILFC, the world's largest lessor of airplanes

 

June 2, 2008, 5.07 pm (Singapore time)

Iata says global airline losses possible in 2008

ISTANBUL - The International Air Transport Association (Iata) said on Monday a significant decline in global airline profitability, or even losses, look inevitable for 2008.

Iata said the combination of high fuel prices, a US recession, and accelerated deliveries of aircraft ordered at the peak of the economic cycle but delivered during a slowdown meant the outlook for 2008 was 'clouded by the perfect storm'.

'Adding to the downward pressures on revenue growth from the US recession will be the acceleration in aircraft deliveries in 2008 and 2009,' Iata said in its annual report presented at a news conference in Istanbul where it is holding its annual meeting.

Iata chief executive Giovanni Bisignani forecast industry losses of US$2.3 billion in 2008 if the average price of a barrel of Brent oil remained at US$107 for the rest of the year.

He also said in a prepared speech that if oil prices remained at US$135 a barrel for the rest of the year airline industry losses would be US$6.1 billion.

Mr Bisignani said traffic growth in the industry would at best be 3.9 per cent this year, down from growth of 5.9 per cent in 2007.

Oil prices hit an all-time high of US$135.09 a barrel on May 22. Prices have roughly doubled in the past year.

The association said increased liberalisation in the industry would also intensify competition and squeeze profitability.

Iata represents 240 airlines operating 94 per cent of all international passenger and cargo flights. -- REUTERS

 

technical nake shorting means, you got the share at CDP. Hence, you sell first at high and you predicted it will drop later of the day, you monitor the day trend. If really falls, either due to speculation or profit taking, and if the profit margin is satisfied your need. Then you buy in on the same day. On the otherhand, your prediction fails, then consider it sold loh. Doing technical naked shorting has no pressure as compared to the real naked shorting. If your prediction fails, you hv to either buyin the same day to cut loss or wait till T+4 to let CDP to buyin for you.

Tips, refer to our sifu, if they happy happy wanted to short a particular counter, and you it in CDP, then you peow the burger early the morning and action accordinly. Advice, you must be full time to do both shorting and contra online. Don't go thro' TR, as they hv no time to monitor for you, unless you hv unforeseen problem arising halfway.

 

Does technical short refer to buying and selling on the same day?

AK_Francis      ( Date: 29-May-2008 23:57) Posted: up since tue, for 3 days leow, now CO is up trend, 2morow likely profit taking loh. Will try technical nake short after this, nothing to lose.

 

up since tue, for 3 days leow, now CO is up trend, 2morow likely profit taking loh. Will try technical nake short after this, nothing to lose.

 

A summary for today.

Last	Trades	Volume	Bid Volume	Mid	Ask Volume
15.720	1	1,000	1,000	0	0
15.740	1	1,000	1,000	0	0
15.800	2	6,000	6,000	0	0
15.880	1	7,000	7,000	0	0
15.900	10	68,000	38,000	0	30,000
15.920	28	102,000	58,000	0	44,000
15.940	31	101,000	28,000	0	73,000
15.960	25	123,000	62,000	0	61,000
15.980	80	359,000	216,000	2,000	141,000
16.000	116	785,000	298,000	137,000	350,000
16.020	34	148,000	55,000	0	93,000
16.040	43	155,000	69,000	0	86,000
16.060	13	84,000	1,000	0	83,000
16.080	23	291,000	60,000	0	231,000
16.100	4	123,000	0	0	123,000
TOTAL	412	2,354,000	900,000	139,000	1,315,000

 

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--With the price of oil seemingly on a near-inexorable climb, airlines across the Asia-Pacific region are scrambling to cut flights and increase surcharges in a bid to stanch their hemorrhaging cashflows.

Fuel costs for airlines, which now typically account for up to 40% of total operating expenses, have already jumped more than 50% since the start of the year and analysts say the industry is facing its worst crisis since the SARS epidemic of 2003, with worse to come if prices continue to rise and erode airlines'' profitability.

Goldman Sachs forecasts crude oil to top US$140 a barrel this summer, up from US$127.04 in Asian trade on Wednesday. Things could be even worse next year, with the investment bank tipping oil at what a few months ago would have been unthinkable - US$200 a barrel.

According to some analysts, this will radically change the sector landscape.

"If oil prices stay this high, then the entire airline industry will be fundamentally different in a year''s time. It will make the strong stronger and the weak weaker," said Damien Horth, head of Asia transport research at UBS AG.

He said this could result in consolidation where weak airlines may be downsized and restructured.

"We''ve got to the point now where a lot of airlines will be knocking on their government''s doors" for assistance in this high cost environment, he said.

He said carriers in region with strong balance sheets, such as Singapore Airlines Ltd. (C6L.SG), Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (0293.HK) and Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN.AU), are in a better position to weather the fuel crisis than their less competitive rivals, given their greater focus on high yielding premium traffic.

In the face of expensive oil, survival is based on an airline''s ability to boost revenue, analysts said.

"Carriers with stronger premium traffic will be more able to pass on their fuel costs to their passengers," said Jim Wong, an analyst at Nomura International.

But even these robust carriers are taking bold steps to cope with the high cost of fuel, announcing a host of initiatives to minimize its impact.

On Wednesday, Qantas said it will lay off staff, implement an executive pay freeze and reduce capacity across its domestic and international networks by around 5% to offset higher fuel costs. It earlier announced plans to hike fares and increase hedging.

Similarly, Hong Kong''s Cathay Pacific Airways said it might cut some routes, particularly on longhaul North American services, and accelerate aircraft retirement.

"The situation is having a very serious financial impact on airlines worldwide and we are no exception," Cathay Pacific''s Chief Executive Tony Tyler said Monday. He added fuel prices now account for over 40% of the airline''s costs, up from 30% last year.

Merrill Lynch analyst Paul Dewberry said in a report Tuesday he believes Cathay Pacific will likely lose money in May and June as fuel costs continued to surge.

"A downsizing of its longhaul routes looks a necessity to stay in the black - with its ambitious U.S. expansion plan likely to be reversed," Dewberry said.

Other Asian carriers have also announced plans to scale back on their longhaul international networks.

Korean Air Co. (003490.SE) said Monday it will temporarily cut flights on 12 international routes and suspend five routes from June to mid-July.

Taiwan''s China Airlines Ltd. (2610.TW) said Wednesday it is considering a reduction in frequencies or suspension of certain routes, mostly longhaul.

China Airlines'' smaller rival EVA Airways Corp. (2618.TW) also said it may cut some frequencies on routes where demand isn''t strong, possibly in southeast Asia.

Profits Under Pressure; Surcharges Give Limited Support

Several Asian carriers have stated that high fuel costs hurt their profitability in the first quarter, with expectations of more bad news to come.

China Airlines and EVA Airways last week disclosed record-high losses for the first quarter on soaring fuel costs. China Airlines'' fuel bill more than tripled from a year earlier.

Malaysian Airline System Bhd. (3786.KU) said last week its first quarter net profit fell about 10% from a year earlier, also due to oil prices.

All Nippon Airways Co. (9202.TO), Japan''s second biggest carrier by revenue, said in April it expects high fuel costs to result in a 58% decline in its net profit for the fiscal year ending March 2009.

On Wednesday, Air New Zealand (AIR.NZ) lowered its fiscal year profit guidance to under NZ$200 million for the current fiscal year, down from an April 23 forecast of NZ$200 million to NZ$220 million.

The high price of oil has been an issue for the world''s airlines for several years - although nowhere near to the degree it is now - and many carriers have been resorting to fuel surcharges to compensate.

But analysts said that as surcharges usually lag actual fuel prices, they have been less effective in cushioning the impact of high oil given the unexpected jump in prices over the past few months.

Singapore Airlines said surcharges only offer partial relief of higher operating costs arising from increases in fuel prices.

Credit Suisse said in a report Wednesday it expects every US$1 a barrel increase in fuel prices to cut Singapore Airlines'' net profit by S$23 million for the current fiscal year ending March 2009.

As airlines seek ever higher surcharges, regulators around the region are looking sympathetically on requests for increases. Japan Airlines Corp. (9205.TO) and ANA last week announced hikes to their fuel surcharges by 40% beginning in July.

Cathay Pacific got approval on Monday to raise its surcharges by 37% from June. But Merrill Lynch''s Dewberry said the higher surcharges are likely to add just HK$8 billion to the airline''s revenue this year, while fuel costs may rise by HK$20 billion.

Airlines are also increasing fuel hedging, or fixing the price of fuel for delivery at a future date, to reduce the impact of rocketing prices. But analysts said hedging is becoming increasingly expensive.

While carriers in mainland China may be less affected by the fuel crisis given state controlled jet fuel prices, analysts said those airlines must still boost hedging and surcharges to cut costs, as they acquire about 30% to 50% of their total fuel supply from the international market for flights operating outside of China.

Key For Airlines Is Whether Demand Will Fall In 2H

So far, despite increasingly expensive airfares and a likely recession in the U.S., passenger demand in the Asia-Pacific region has remained strong, though growth has slowed somewhat from the levels seen in 2007. According to the International Air Transport Association, passenger traffic rose 5.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier, based on revenue passenger kilometers, a key measure of revenue.

"Many people think the economic slowdown in the U.S. hasn''t fully followed through to Asia yet," said Nomura''s Wong. At the moment, he said the balance between supply and demand in Asia''s airline industry is still tilted towards the demand side.

"But the big worry is what happens when demand weakens in the second half, while oil prices remain high? The stronger airlines will lose their pricing powers."

In addition, increased capacity due to come online as a result of ambitious expansion plans on the part of the region''s larger carriers may also put pressure on airline fares, analysts said.

In a recent note, Morgan Stanley said it expects longhaul seat capacity for Asian airlines to rise 8% to 9% each year in 2008 and 2009, up from an estimated 5% increase last year.

"Everybody is facing the same difficulties," said an analyst at a U.S. investment bank. "The whole industry has to go through varying degrees of pain before we''ll see any improvement."

 

Hoh shei leow, bird will fly higher for bird-eye view leow, tomorrow. But SPC likely will be VOG, vehicle on ground, military term, he he. But it may hold if DJ tonite chiong 3 digits. ax your legs loh.

 

Oil price drop USD2+ in Asia trades.

 

Wah suddenly chiong straight up

 

oil today about 128 down from 135 few days ago... so this bird feel a little better... just hope it don't burst above 135 soon.

 

SIA coming back up..

 

A summary for today.

Last	Trades	Volume	Bid Volume	Mid	Ask Volume
15.500	1	1,000	1,000	0	0
15.520	15	51,000	40,000	11,000	0
15.540	31	103,000	13,000	0	90,000
15.560	51	114,000	61,000	0	53,000
15.580	72	567,000	300,000	42,000	225,000
15.585	1	8,000	0	8,000	0
15.600	102	878,000	254,000	130,000	494,000
15.620	13	122,000	20,000	0	102,000
15.640	6	35,000	26,000	0	9,000
15.660	11	64,000	19,000	0	45,000
TOTAL	303	1,943,000	734,000	191,000	1,018,000

 

aK is right... i'm out of all oil-guzzling stocks... i wrote the post to console others who had bought high high... i think if one hold it long term, the bird will grow bigger and in time to come.. lay more bigger eggs... heeh.