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Adv Hldg

Huat!,

Thks for your accurate analysis and predict of dividends !

 

Dividend very lousy meh? I had already anticipated a minimum $0.007 dividend. (refer to my old post). This is quite close to the actual dividend of $0.0075.

At current price of $0.31 as I type, inclusive of $0.005 interim, yield is 0.0125/0.31 = 4.03%.

Pretty decent if you ask me considering that they are not a yield play. If Advanced Holdings falls below $0.30 again, I will confirm average down. I bought at a peak, thats my mistake. Other than that, I like Advanced Holdings still.

 

Very LOUSY, up only 1 day, now is coming down! Good Luck.

 

Advanced Holdings   (ADV SP / ADV.SI, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, S$0.34, Target: S$0.52)
2HFY07 results - Into clean energy
by Lawrence Lye

ADV's 4Q07 net profit of S$12.1m (+249% yoy) was within consensus and our expectations, with revenue growth driven by petrochemicals & chemicals and overall sales improvements in China, the Middle East, Asia, Europe and the US. Order book remained strong at S$72m. Future growth is expected to be propelled by the Middle East and China. We have adjusted our FY08-09 forecasts by +2% to -3% and introduced FY10 forecasts. Due to investors' lower risk appetite, we have reduced our target P/E from 12x to 8x, on top of rolling forward our target to CY09. This translates to a new target price of S$0.52, down from S$0.63. Maintain Outperform.

 

Should buy during S$0.26 - S$0.275 period. That is when I accumulate ! All this while this is a good stock, but they are sting in giving dividend, only given miserable S$7.5 for every 1 lot. Lousy in dividend.

 

Wow....very good result...I must buy some and keep for Long Term....

 

fyi:

full year net profit up 234%

2007 historical p/e now at 7.1x

net cash per share 16 cents

2007 ex-cash p/e is 3.5x

2007 p/b is 1.4x

 

Still going up ! Good Luck.

 

Gone up a bit to get ready for the result announcement ! Hope the result is good and positive. Plus the market is still ok on oil, and marine related sector. 

 

It is catching up as annual results is supposed to be announced soon ! Good Luck.

 

I lost money on this counter one year ago. I decided to sell at a loss and move my capital elsewhere. Thankfully I recovered my loss and moved into profit. Sometimes selling at a loss and moving your capital elsewhere is a better option.

 

Good thing is Wasatch Advisors and Dr Wong Kar King had bought at prices much higher than it is now. At least its a vote of confidence although i notice Dr Wong never scoop up when it is now trading at $0.26.

I am anticipating a minimum of $0.007 full year dividend. Including interim dividend of $0.005, current yield at $0.26 stands at 4.6% which is pretty decent.

Alamak, think i am the only one who bought this at such a ridiculously high price...stuck with this one liao.

 

spark5920,  how much are you vested in this counter...and how is your damage here...since this company is doing pretty well and is likely to continue to be same in 2008-09

also since you claim to be a long term investor...what is there for you to worry....should load more now since so many believe that this counter is under value!!! 

 

Take a look at Advanced's website and you will see that it has a very healthy bank / cash balance position.

Libialities are managable, so there is no constraint on share buy-backs or for other investments.

The problem, as I see it, is that the counter is very thinly traded which makes it easy for someone with an ulterior motive to manipulate the share price (with very little effort / capital). 

If you monitor the counter closely, you will notice that for the past few sessions there is always a sell "Q" of 100 - 200 lots above the quoted price (in the early morning).  As the counter is very thinly traded, those who are selling on that day will more likely sell down rather than be on wait "Q" at the higher volume sell price.  On days when there are more sellers than buyers, you can see the share-price go down by S$ 0.01 - 0.02c with a trade volume of just 100 - 200 lots.  It may not sound much but a S$ 0.01 - 0.02c decline is equivalent to a loss of  4 - 7 p/c of current share-price value. 

At the moment, Advanced's shareprice is behaving worse than a penny counter and for that reason it is time for the Management to take some action. 

I am sure that share-holders and investors of the Company alike will be supportive of any share buy-back action as the share price is clearly under-performing and below fair value at current levels. 

At the moment they are just frustrating their shareholders / investors as can be seen by the comments in this and other forums.

 

Mmmm... thought mgmt did share buy backs at 47cts and 37cts before.. Not sure about this but mgmt might have cash flow constrain and thus can't do a share buy back now. Did anyone check on their cash flow statement??

 

 

 

You are probably right but it is puzzleing for long term investors like myself and those who have commented on the Company's inaction / situation in the forum here.

There is really no logic for the share-price of Advanced to remain stagnant (and on a decline) with a good FY 2007 and esecially when the market is on an uptrend.

This is quite likely / obviously a case of a counter that is being manipulated and having its share price suppressed. 

When the share-price of a counter is grossly undervalued like Advanced is today, the Management should step in to do a buy-back. 

What is the point of asking for a share buy-back mandate if the Company is not going to act on it when the price is at almost historical low ??

They did a share buy-back recently at S 0.37c after all. 

It is the right thing to do in the interest of the Company as well as its shareholders / investors.

Otherwise, the next time they ask for a mandate for something else, who is going to trust them to do a good job about it ?? 

 

 

on the other hand, this stock were pressed down until not many seller left. wouldn't this be the right time to buy? its two year chart showed last jan-feb also all time low.  perhaps this counter is just waiting for a price reversal?

 

 

 

This is a real horrible counter...

Ah Huat please do us a favour and give the Management a "horrid" time during the Q & A at the next AGM.

They have really let down their share-holders / investors.

They asked for and were given a mandate to do a share buy-back.

If they do a buy back at S$ 0.37 c (recently) why aren't they doing a buy back now when the share price is almost at historical lows now and especially when the whole market is moving up ????

Dosen't make sense at all...

 

 

 

Cannot help but agree with your comment.

A very frustrating counter to hold.

Advanced Holdings will have a sterling result for its FY 2007 with record turnover and record profit, yet its share price is behaving worse than a penny stock.

When the market chiong (like today + yesterday) its share price gets suppressed and cannot move with the tide..

When the market collapses, it follows suite.

Had great expectations when it announced the S$ 24 mil contract 3 - 4 weeks ago but now feel like holding a piece of sh*t...

 

 

 

 

This counter is my worst performing ever. I bought at a high of $0.64. Have wrote off the whole investment as a bad debt liao.

Increased profits plus contracts secured also cannot move. Very disappointed. But I don't intend to sell. Just keep and collect the pathetic dividends.

Wonder what happened to those who got the placement at $0.565. Imagine there was another placement at $0.80+ even if i can recall.

Very disappointed. Waiting for full year results now. Then during Management Q&A bombard them.