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Citi... ever the pessimist said this:
DJ MARKET TALK: NOL Buy Of Hapag Lloyd May Mean Dilution - Citi (2008/05/28 10:15AM)
0215 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Neptune Orient Lines (N03.SG) may face
dilution if it buys Hapag Lloyd, the shipping arm of Germany''s TUI
(TUI1.XE) for US$7 billion, says Citigroup. "NOL is a quality player but
has enough on its plate already before managing a massive transaction at
container vessel prices near all-time highs," broker says in note. Says
given NOL has only US$2.8 billion in equity, shareholder dilution is a
possibility depending on the relative valuation between NOL and Hapag Lloyd
in any deal. Adds, Norwegian ship owner John Fredriksen, who owns around
11.7% of TUI is likely to hold out for high price, has said he is against a
fast sale; city of Hamburg may emerge as rival bidder, which could also
push up the takeover price. Keeps Sell call, S$2.70 target price. Share
+2.0% at S$3.64. (KIG)
https://research.cimbinvest.com/research/articles/sg/Daybreak-280508.pdf
Another write-up by CIMB today on NOL. Can someone help paste it here. I can't seem to do it successfully. Thanks.
No doubt oil price has increased many folds, the cost of container forwarding has also increased, and much higher than the increase in oil prices, which is good news for this biz. But frankly, seeing the oil price rocketing doesn't benefit the rest of the world except OPEC countries.
I have recently seen an article in Today saying if you have miss the commodity boom.....you may want to look into shipping stock. As the commodity also need to be transported. Like crude oil, rice, scrap metals......wonder how true.
Only read half of the article.....heeee....
Just from my common sense, I guess shipping costs would be higher too due to the high oil price right?
Fairgal,
thanks for the post. From the graph, it looks like shipping is peaking. As for other data, i don't know how to interpret. anyone knows?
Thanks.
they get money from u and me and the old uncle selling kopi and the ah sia visiting geylang and the rich man who sell down the mkt recently
Temasek holds 68% of NOL. You say leh?
Quite a lot of money to take over. Where do they get the money? Cash reserve? or Right issues? Economy is cooling, so any take over might take a while to roll back the profits. Long term is good but short term, i'm not sure. Anyone any comment?
Extremely volatile.
Must have holding power if you are thinking of picking up. Buy at your own risk. Read up more facts before you decide to commit.
Opened with gap up today.... time to pick up?
Fairygal ( Date: 22-May-2008 15:44) Posted:
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Today 's decline made worse because of T + 3 as well. Those who buy last Friday must settle payment today, and the range of price between what they bought at then and today's opening price is big, thus price is being depressed further. The vol last Friday is pretty large.
Read it in my 22 May 2008, CIMB Research
Hi Fairgal,
May I kow when this article released? This morning? Thanks!
Personally, I see that there are a number of big vol Buys over the last few days. BBs may be collecting, or perhaps trying to lower the price even to collect more, I am not sure. However, based on what I see, and following the progress of the "buyout", I am confident. If they can collect big vol at higher price than the present, it's always good. Am vested.
Not an inducement to buy or trade. Please buy and trade at your own risk.
If this is the "good news", any idea why NOL price has dropped so much in the last 2-3 days. It reached a high of 4.16, only 2 days ago.... is it time to pick up some?
Fairygal ( Date: 22-May-2008 10:17) Posted:
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Neptune Orient Lines is ready to make a US$6 billion-US$7 billion cash offer for
Germany's Hapag-Lloyd and is confident of winning the container shipper despite an
expected bid from a rival consortium led by the City of Hamburg, two people familiar with
the situation said Wednesday. "They (NOL) are expecting Hapag's formal invitation for
bids at the end of this month or early June. Once the request for offers lands the (NOL)
bid will be made," one of the people, who asked not to be identified, told Dow Jones
Newswires. The second person said that "NOL is prepared to pay cash for Hapag-Lloyd
if that's what it takes to seal the deal." Hapag-Lloyd, the shipping arm of Germany's
tourism major TUI AG, has held talks with NOL about a possible takeover since the
beginning of the year. If the marriage happens, NOL will become the world's third largest
container shipper in terms of capacity. (Dow Jones Newswires)
Germany's Hapag-Lloyd and is confident of winning the container shipper despite an
expected bid from a rival consortium led by the City of Hamburg, two people familiar with
the situation said Wednesday. "They (NOL) are expecting Hapag's formal invitation for
bids at the end of this month or early June. Once the request for offers lands the (NOL)
bid will be made," one of the people, who asked not to be identified, told Dow Jones
Newswires. The second person said that "NOL is prepared to pay cash for Hapag-Lloyd
if that's what it takes to seal the deal." Hapag-Lloyd, the shipping arm of Germany's
tourism major TUI AG, has held talks with NOL about a possible takeover since the
beginning of the year. If the marriage happens, NOL will become the world's third largest
container shipper in terms of capacity. (Dow Jones Newswires)