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bsiong
    26-Nov-2010 00:49  
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Retail buyers part of gold rally: WGC

November 25 2010 17:45 GMT

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News 
(Kitco News) -
 Stories about gold buyers tend to focus on big names like John Paulson or George Soros, which suggest the little guy is sitting on the sidelines as the yellow metal rallies to all-time highs. 

That’s not necessarily the case. 

The retail investor makes up an estimated 60% to 70% of the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund, said Jason Toussaint, managing director, U.S. and investment for the World Gold Council. He is also chief executive officer of World Gold Trust Services, the sponsor of SPDR Gold Shares. The shares trade under the ticker symbol GLD. 

“They absolutely are in the SPDR GLD. You can look at the 13F filing and see Paulson is the No. 1 holder, the largest single holder, but there’s a vast retail investment base in the GLD. Not every investor is going to show up in the 13F. Sixty to70% of the holdings are retail investors,” he said. 

He said between the 13F filings and an omnibus relationship with retail brokers like Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo, the estimate is a “back of the envelope figure.” 

The form 13F is a quarterly report required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission of equity holdings filed by institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in assets under management. 
Toussaint said ETFs themselves have allowed small investors into the gold market. “Many of those who bought ETFs never bought gold before. It’s a testament that the GLD expanded the gold market,” he said. 

The Gold Trust ETF is now the second-largest ETF of any kind with over $56 billion under management, with only the SPDR S&P 500 ETF – SPY – bigger at around $77 billion. 

The next largest is the iShares Gold Trust at $4.4 billion under management. A share in the SPDR Gold Trust represents 1/10 of an ounce of gold, while the iShares is 1/100. 

Recently iShares cut the expense ratio for the fund, which is credited with helping to boost investment in that ETF. The expense ratio for the SPDR Gold Trust is 0.40% and the iShares is 0.25%. 

Toussaint doesn’t believe the reduction in fees has siphoned any business away. “I think people have come to realize expense ratios are just one aspect. Tight spreads, liquidity are all taken into account. The feedback we’ve heard from investors is there was no compelling reason to switch. When they did the 10-1 share split, they placed themselves toward the self-directed retail category. The size is a disadvantage for high-net worth and institutional clients,” he said. 

The huge popularity of gold ETFs have some in the industry concerned about a mass exodus by investors if prices start to fall, which could then snowball and exaggerate price movements. Despite the growth in investment demand for gold via ETFs, Toussaint said in absolute figures it is still a fraction of overall demand.

As of the third quarter of 2010, physical gold-backed ETFS hold about 2,100 metric tons of gold and the amount of gold in private hands is anywhere from 28,000 to 30,000 tons, not including central bank holdings, which would push up that amount to 56,000 to 59,000 tons. Toussaint said if one considers the amount of gold in private holdings, excluding the central banks, then ETFs make up only about seven to seven and one-half percent of the market.


“I’m not saying it’s not important, but I’m saying it’s not excessive,” he said.


He contrasted that with the S&P 500 ETF, SPY. “What’s your alternative to buy it? You can do mutual funds. There are thousands of mutual funds in the US. Look at GLD. How many physically backed mutual funds are there? Zero. The ETF is a small part of the market,” he said.Asian Demand Strong, Watch U.S. Jewelry 
The WGC’s third-quarter gold demand trends research report said that demand from Asia, specifically India and China, continues to hold, despite the rise in prices. Those countries will remain important components to physical demand as buyers see jewelry there as having both ornamental and investment purposes. The gold content for jewelry in India is usually 22 karat, making it very high quality, he said. 

“There is no difference in buying gold as an investment or as jewelry. It’s both. If you talk to someone in Chennai leaving a gold store and asked them if they bought it for jewelry or investment, they wouldn’t understand what you meant,” he said. 

Toussaint said the U.S. is going to become more important in the jewelry sector. There are plans by the WGC in 2011 to drum up support for gold jewelry in the U.S. The plan will be led by the WGC’s David Lamb and will have a jewelry sector focus. Toussaint wouldn’t give specifics on the plan or when it would be released, only to say “sometime” in 2011. 

In the U.S. and the U.K. to an extent, golden jewelry has taken a backseat to other baubles. “You see more diamond and platinum jewelry bought at the expense of gold. But there are signs of turnaround in the marketplace. It won’t be next quarter, but there should be a resurgence in gold jewelry. Diamonds, platinum did great marketing and advertising to draw in consumers. Gold did not keep up,” Toussaint said. 



By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News 
 
 
bsiong
    26-Nov-2010 00:16  
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i hv heard that mustafa gold is higher than uob (physical), both +gst.  And yes, pamp gold is the better choice, each comes with an assay cert. 

chanmarichan      ( Date: 25-Nov-2010 23:57) Posted:

is mustapha gold cheaper than uob?was thinking of getting pamp gold

bsiong      ( Date: 25-Nov-2010 16:17) Posted:

shd look at UOB gold, there are generally 2 types, Gold savings and physical gold. 


 
 
chanmarichan
    25-Nov-2010 23:57  
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is mustapha gold cheaper than uob?was thinking of getting pamp gold

bsiong      ( Date: 25-Nov-2010 16:17) Posted:

shd look at UOB gold, there are generally 2 types, Gold savings and physical gold. 

chanmarichan      ( Date: 25-Nov-2010 13:57) Posted:



can any1 advise which place to buy gold?uob,pawnshop,goldsmith,mustapha?i looking at the cheapest price and keep long-term,say  5-10yrs


 

 
bsiong
    25-Nov-2010 19:16  
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Gold loses steam as euro, Korea worries ease

November 25, 2010 at 11:55SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold lost steam Thursday after the dollar recovered while Korean Peninsula tensions eased. 

Spot gold was seen trading at $1371.48 an ounce at 12.30 p.m Singapore time while US gold futures was at $1372.64 an ounce on the comex division of Nymex.

Analysts said the precious yellow metal is likely to ease further as Korea tensions eased while the euro dropped further on Europe worries. 

The euro traded near a two-month low against the dollar on concerns over labor strikes and a Portuguese government vote tomorrow on austerity measures. 

However analysts said news that Vietnam's central bank has granted additional quotas for domestic companies to import gold between now and the year end didn’t influence the bullion. 

Most U.S. markets are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. 

On Wednesday, gold lost some momentum after jumping the most in three weeks in the previous session, as a flight to safety fizzled a little bit. Silver retreated and platinum barely changed. 



The most active gold contract for December delivery inched down $4.6 , or 0.3 percent, to $1,373.0 per ounce.

//i came i read i posted for your info only// 
 
 
bsiong
    25-Nov-2010 16:20  
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Gold inches down, US data calms economic concerns

Thu Nov 25, 2010 2:06am EST

 

 * Vietnam grants more gold import quotes
 * U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday

 (Updates prices, adds activity in Japan)	
 By Lewa Pardomuan	
 SINGAPORE, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Gold edged down in thin 
trade on Thursday after encouraging U.S. jobless claims data 
calmed some worries about economic growth, but concerns over 
tensions on the Korean peninsula could offer some support.	
 Bullion barely reacted to news that Vietnam's central bank 
had granted additional quotas for domestic companies to import 
gold between now and the year end, but dealers noted buying on 
dips from consumers in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia. 
[ID:nL3E6MP0CR]	
 Spot gold eased $1.56 to $1,372.15 an ounce by 0640 
GMT - well below a lifetime high around $1,424 struck in early 
November. It had hit an intraday low around $1,367 an ounce.	
 U.S. gold futures fell $1.2 to $1,371.8 an ounce. 
U.S. markets are shut on Thursday for the Thanksgiving 	 


holiday.  
 
 
bsiong
    25-Nov-2010 16:17  
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shd look at UOB gold, there are generally 2 types, Gold savings and physical gold. 

chanmarichan      ( Date: 25-Nov-2010 13:57) Posted:



can any1 advise which place to buy gold?uob,pawnshop,goldsmith,mustapha?i looking at the cheapest price and keep long-term,say  5-10yrs

 

 
chanmarichan
    25-Nov-2010 13:57  
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can any1 advise which place to buy gold?uob,pawnshop,goldsmith,mustapha?i looking at the cheapest price and keep long-term,say  5-10yrs
 
 
bsiong
    25-Nov-2010 09:49  
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Gold, silver set new record in India

November 24, 2010 at 16:05


NEW DELHI (Commodity Online): Gold prices set new record in India on Wednesday following the rise in wedding season demand.

Prices of both gold and silver hit all-time high levels on heavy buying by stockists and jewellers for the current marriage season, amid a firm global trend.

While the gold touched a new peak of Rs 20,800 per 10 grams by adding Rs 200, silver rose by Rs100 and rallied to an all-time high level of Rs 42,500 per kg.

Both the precious metals have been in demand for the last six sessions on brisk buying by stockists and jewellers to encash on the ongoing marriage season.

A firm global trend further fuelled the uptrend. Gold in overseas markets, which sets prices on the domestic front, added $1.50 to $1,377.90 an ounce. Silver also rose 0.4% to $27.61 an ounce.

On the domestic front, gold of 99.9% purity surged by Rs200 to Rs20,800 and 99.5% purity by Rs210 to Rs20,670 per 10 grams, respectively. Both varieties of the metal have recorded a gain of Rs380 in the previous five trading sessions.

Sovereign followed suit and added Rs50 to Rs16,500 per piece of eight gram. With the general firm trend, silver ready gained Rs100 to Rs42,500 per kg on increased offtake by industrial units, while weekly-based delivery shed Rs20 to Rs41,910 per kg.

Silver coins remained at a record level of Rs45,900 for buying and Rs46,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

/i came i read n i posted fyi only.

 


 
 
 
bsiong
    25-Nov-2010 09:07  
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Gold inches down, economic worries fade

Wed Nov 24, 2010 7:41pm EST

 

 SINGAPORE, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Gold edged down in thin 
trade on Thursday after encouraging U.S. jobless claims data 
calmed some worries about economic growth, but concerns over 
tensions on the Korean peninsula could offer some support.	
 	
 FUNDAMENTALS	
 * Spot gold eased $1.16 to $1,372.55 an 	
ounce by 0022 GMT - well below a lifetime high around $1,424 
struck in early November.	
 * U.S. gold futures were hardly moved at $1,372.2 
an ounce.	
 * The euro earned a reprieve early in Asia on Thursday, 
lifting off a two-month trough after three straight sessions 
of falls, but with the euro zone debt crisis still festering 
any rebound may well prove short-lived.	
 * U.S. initial jobless benefits claims fell to their 
lowest level in more than two years last week while consumer 
spending rose for a fourth straight month in October, fueling 
hopes the economic recovery is strengthening. 
 * U.S. markets are shut on Thursday for the Thanksgiving 	
holiday.	
 * South Korean President Lee Myung-bak called an emergency 
meeting early on Thursday to check on the economic impact from 
the worst North Korean attacks on civilians in the South since 
the 1950-53 Korean War.
	
  MARKET NEWS	
  * Japan's benchmark Nikkei average opened up 0.87 
percent at 10,117.85 on Thursday, while the broader Topix 
 gained 0.78 percent to 873.34. 
  * Oil prices rose more than 3 percent on Wednesday as 
data that suggested economic recovery is improving and 
pre-Thanksgiving holiday short covering helped oil post its 
biggest percentage gain in four months. 
 	
 (GMT) DATA/EVENTS  0300 Japan PAJ weekly oil inventory data 
   2330 Japan CPI, core nationwide, Oct   


U.S. Federal holiday, markets closed
Precious metals prices at 0022  GMT                                    
  Metal             Last    Change  Pct chg  YTD pct chg Turnover        
  Spot Gold        1372.55   -1.16   -0.08     25.27                     
  Spot Silver        27.46   -0.09   -0.33     63.16                     
  Spot Platinum    1653.99   -6.00   -0.36     12.75                     
  Spot Palladium    693.99   -0.51   -0.07     71.14                     
  Euro/Dollar       1.3336                                               
  Dollar/Yen         83.47                                               
                                                                      
           


(Reporting by Lewa Pardomuan; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

// 
 
 
bsiong
    25-Nov-2010 09:02  
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/24/2010

By Peter LaTonaNovember 24, 2010


At 4PM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
  • Gold price - $1,373.40
  • Silver price - $27.61
  • Platinum price - $1,660.20
  • Palladium price - $699.00


 

COMMENTARY: The stock market demonstrated strong gains today, while gold and silver pulled back slightly. Dennis Gartman, publisher of the highly respected “The Gartman Letter” came out with his Top 3 trades for 2011 today. Number one was Gold! The US is deploying an aircraft carrier towards the Korean Peninsula. Although there have been no new flare-ups, this will remain an uncertain geopolitical situation for some time.

Gold spot price was down $5.70 – Silver price off 2 cents – Platinum spot price up $2.50 – Palladium price up $5.90

Happy Thanksgiving!

/apmex

 
 

 
bsiong
    25-Nov-2010 00:03  
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Gold steady, but up in euros on Irish debt crisis

Wed Nov 24, 2010 7:16am EST

 

 * Irish government to map out 4-year plan
 * Euro-gold outperforms, at highest since June
 * Coming up: U.S. initial claims, durable goods; 1330 GMT

 By Amanda Cooper
 LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Gold steadied on Wednesday as
mounting concern about the risk that Ireland's debt crisis could
spread to other euro zone economies pushed the euro price of 


bullion to its highest level since June. 
A deadly exchange of military fire between North and South
Korea on Tuesday has further unsettled investors, putting Asian
stocks under pressure and encouraging a sweep into perceived
safe havens such as gold, government bonds and the Swiss franc.

The dollar hit two-month highs against a basket of
currencies .DXY, providing a head wind for gold, which usually
weakens in response to dollar strength.
 But on Wednesday, this inverse relation reached its weakest
level in two months, allowing spot gold XAU= to hold
relatively steady at $1,375.40 an ounce by 1155 GMT, little
changed from $1,376.20 late in New York on Tuesday. U.S. gold
futures GCZ0 dipped 0.2 percent to $1,375.80.
 "Euro-gold is up to the 1,030 (euro) mark ($1,380) that ...
suggests there is added support to this safe-haven factor," said
Citi analyst David Thurtell.
 The euro hit two-month lows on Wednesday as spreads on
peripheral euro zone bonds such as Portugal and Spain hit record
highs, while gold priced in euros XAUEUR=R rallied to its
highest level since early June. 
 "Gold's been gritting its teeth in the last couple of days
and going contrary to what one might have expected with the
dollar move, and really that has to boil down to the
uncertainty," said Ole Hansen, a senior manager at Saxo Bank.
 "We've got political risk from the Korea situation and then
more importantly ... people are talking about the potential of
the euro not surviving. I don't see that happening, but just the
fact that it is being talked about is enough to raise the bar."
 
 PAIN
 In Ireland, the government said it will explain on Wednesday
how it plans to save 15 billion euros over the next four years,
inflicting more pain on voters to prove that it can tackle the country's debt.
Bullion dealers in Singapore noted selling of gold bars and
scraps from consumers in Indonesia and Thailand, but China saw
buying on dips related to the tension in Korea.
 Gold's negative correlation to the dollar reached its
weakest since mid-September as investors ditched the euro and
other risk-related assets such as stocks and corporate debt.
 In terms of factors fuelling a bid for safe-haven
investments, Michael Widmer, a strategist with Bank of
America-Merrill Lynch, said the euro zone debt crisis was the dominant one. 
Holdings of gold in the world's largest gold-backed
exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), were unchanged
for a second day, indicating no large-scale withdrawal from gold
by investors.
 Silver XAG= eased, releasing earlier gains to last trade
at $27.38 an ounce, down 0.4 percent on the day. 
 Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the world's
largest physically-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to record
highs for three consecutive sessions, signalling strong
investment demand in the metal, seen as an alternate investment from gold.  
 
 
bsiong
    24-Nov-2010 23:57  
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/24/2010

By Peter LaTonaNovember 24, 2010


At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
  • Gold price - $1,375.90
  • Silver price - $27.47
  • Platinum price - $1,664.00
  • Palladium price -$695.60


 

COMMENTARY: Gold is down slightly this morning, as investors capture profits from yesterday’s run up. Although there has been no further military action between North and South Korea, the tension remains. Meanwhile, Ireland is poised to take control of the Bank of Ireland. The government owns a 36% stake, but is expected to act in the next 72 hours to take a majority stake.

Gold spot price is down $3.20 –Silver price is off 17 cents – Platinum and Palladium continue to recover losses obtained, with the news of the Chinese intentions to curb their inflation. Platinum price is up $6.30 – Palladium is up $2.50

 

//came read posted

 
 
 
bsiong
    24-Nov-2010 17:20  
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Factors To Watch on Nov 24

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Gold edged up on Wednesday but
showed a muted reaction to Tuesday's artillery clash between the
two Koreas, with investors focusing on the euro zone debt
crisis, which has put pressure on the euro. 
  
 PRICES
  * Spot gold XAU= was bid at $1,377.89 at 0731 GMT from
$1,376.20 late in New York on Tuesday.
 * Silver XAG= was at $27.62 from $27.48.
 * Platinum XPT= at $1,659.50 from $1,647.24.
 * Palladium XPD= at $693 from $686.47.
MARKET NEWS
 * Asian shares steady after the previous day's sell-off
following an exchange of fire between North and South Korean
artillery units, but tension on the divided peninsula supported
assets such as gold, government bonds and the dollar.
 * The euro edged up from a two-month low on Wednesday,
finding support after a massive sell-off sparked by the euro
zone debt crisis. 
 * Oil rose to near $82, rebounding from losses seen in the
previous session, as expectations of improved demand in top
consumer  the United States boosted investor interest. 
* Ireland's deeply unpopular government will finally explain
on Wednesday how it plans to save 15 billion euros over the next
four years, inflicting  more pain on voters to prove that it can
tackle the country's  debt. 
 * China is considering raising its inflation target for 2011
even as it campaigns to reassure people that price pressures
will remain in check.
 * A weaker economic outlook prompted Fed officials to mull
more radical steps to aid the economy before settling on $600
billion in bond purchases earlier this month, minutes from a Fed meeting showed.
FUNDAMENTALS
 * The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR
Gold Trust (GLD.P) said its holdings fell to 1,285.084 tonnes by
Nov 22 from 1,289.336 tonnes on Nov 19. 
 * Patagonia Gold PLC (PGD.L) said on Wednesday it has 
approval of environmental impact report for el tranquilo block
from Santa Cruz province, Argentina 
 
 TECHNICALS
 * Gold support at $1,341 an ounce, resistance at $1,400 and
14-day RSI at 57.96.
 * Platinum support at $1,628 an ounce, resistance at $1,690
and 14-day RSI at 39.50.
 * Silver support at $26.35 an ounce, resistance at $28.95


and 14-day RSI at 65.26. 



 
 
bsiong
    24-Nov-2010 16:09  
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Comex Gold rises on safe-haven buying, Korea crisis

Published on: November 24 2010 05:35 GMT

By Jim Wyckoff of Kitco News
Comex gold futures prices ended sharply higher Tuesday, as the market rallied on news overnight that North Korea and South Korea saw the most serious armed conflict in decades. December Comex gold last traded up $19.40 at $1,377.20 an ounce. Spot gold last traded up $11.10 at $1,378.00. 

It took gold a while to react, but prices shot higher at mid-morning Tuesday on safe-haven buying following overnight news that North Korea fired artillery rounds onto a South Korean island Tuesday, killing at least two people. South Korea returned fire. This is a major geopolitical development that bears very close monitoring in the coming days. Surprisingly, the gold market initially only saw tepid buying support from the Korea news. That quickly changed at mid-morning, however, which prices pushed solidly higher. 

The U.S. dollar index traded sharply higher Tuesday, also on safe-haven buying in the wake of the Koreas' conflict. Past geopolitical or financial uncertainty in the world has seen both gold and the U.S. dollar appreciate simultaneously. The dollar also saw residual upside support from ongoing worries about the sovereign debt problems facing the European Union. Traders wonder when "the next shoe will fall" in the EU debt crisis that has been playing out for months. 

Comex gold and silver futures options expired on Tuesday. 

The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,377.50 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,356.50 an ounce. 


Technically, December gold futures Tuesday hit a fresh nearly two-week high. The bulls have solid upside near-term technical momentum and gained more Tuesday. A four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been restarted. Bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at the October high of $1,388.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,340.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of $1,382.90 and then at $1,388.10. Support is seen at $1,370.00 and then at $1,360.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5. 
December silver futures closed up 9.9 cents at $27.56 an ounce Tuesday. Prices closed near mid-range. Gains in gold spilled over into buying support for silver Tuesday. However, the key "outside markets" were in a bearish posture for silver, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and stock indexes were lower. The silver bulls still have solid upside near-term technical momentum. Silver prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $26.00. Bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $28.17 an ounce. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $27.895 and then at $28.00. Next support is seen at $27.40 and then at $27.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0. 

December N.Y. copper closed down 500 points at 370.15 cents Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session low. The key "outside markets" were in a bearish posture for copper Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and stock indexes were lower. Some near-term chart damage has been inflicted in copper recently. Bulls' next upside objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 390.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 360.65 cents. First resistance is seen at 372.50 and then at 375.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday's low of 365.65 cents and then at 362.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. 



By Jim Wyckoff of Kitco News

/I came I read I posted For Your Info --- give me a tick.

 

 
 
 
bsiong
    24-Nov-2010 15:57  
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Gold rally to continue as dollar dips

Published on: November 24, 2010 at 11:20

 SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold prices remained almost steady in Asian trade Wednesday, despite profit taking by some investors, as the dollar weakened against the euro.

Spot gold was seen trading at $ 1375.96 an ounce at 1.00 p.m Singapore time while gold Futures for December delivery in New York dropped 0.2 percent to $1,376.40 an ounce. 

The dollar declined 0.2 percent against a basket of six currencies after yesterday rising to a two-month high. Bullion typically moves inversely to the greenback. Sales of existing homes fell more than forecast in October as foreclosure moratoriums and a lack of credit disrupted the U.S. housing market. 

Analysts however said the precious yellow metal is likely to gain as the day progresses as mounting tensions in the Korean peninsula and debt concerns in Europe continued to boost its safe haven appeal. 

Silver, platinum and palladium rose. Silver for immediate delivery rose 0.4 percent to $27.6125 an ounce. Silver held through four exchange-traded product providers rose 51.7 metric tons to 14,930.3 tons as of Nov. 23. 

Cash platinum advanced 0.4 percent to $1,659 an ounce and immediate-delivery palladium jumped 1.3 percent to $697.50 an ounce. 
Gold posted a substantial gain on Tuesday, despite the greenback's rally as well as a weak equity market, after North Korea fired scores of artillery onto South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, prompting a return fire. 

On Tuesday, the most active gold contract for December delivery jumped $19.8 , or 1.5 percent, to $1,377.6 per ounce. 

Silver futures for December delivery remained unchanged from the previous session, settling at $27.461 per ounce. January platinum added 2.2 dollars, or 0.1 percent, to $1,657.7 per ounce. 


 /I came I read I posted for your info only.

 
 

 
bsiong
    24-Nov-2010 15:53  
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Silver no more the poor man’s Gold

Published on: November 24 2010 07:50 GMT

 

 David A. Banister

In latter August I penned a forecast on Silver, and below is a brief excerpt from August 31st:
I believe Silver is about to stage a pretty large advance based loosely on the Elliott Wave pattern I see unfolding after a 9 odd month consolidation. (Obviously, there are also fundamental fiat currency/debt events worldwide that give it the underlying bull chart pattern). Since the average person can't run out and buy an ounce of Gold for $1,240 tomorrow, as the unfolding of the fiat crises continues to enter the public psyche, you will see a strong populace movement into buying silver, silver coins, etc. To wit, many silver stocks are moving up strongly of late, signally an imminent breakout of this precious and industrial metal.

The triangle pattern has taken nearly 9 months so far, and a move over $19.50 could start a multi-month run targeting $26-$29 per ounce for starters before a broad pullback.

I bring this up now, some 11 weeks later because Silver did in fact rally up from around $19 per ounce to $29 per ounce, and this was forecast well in advance using my crowd behavioral methodology and pattern recognition. The explosion in price I predicted happened much faster than even I expected, but does show the power of the crowds as they take hold of a new trend or a perceived trend and run with it. Part of the theory to be long silver also had to do with it being “poor man’s Gold”, which I indicated in my forecast. This is also crowd psychology in it’s finest form. People perceive Gold to be “too expensive”, but they can buy silver for only $29 an ounce. 

To wit, most investors do not really understand the difference between a stock that has 2 billion shares outstanding and one that has 20 million shares outstanding, they only care about price. They often think if a stock is $2 it’s “cheaper” than the stock at $100, little do they realize that a $2 stock that goes to $1 is a 50% loss, but they perceive that as a small risk due to the price. With Silver, you have the mom and pops running out and buying it because it’s “cheaper” than Gold.

Now that Silver has run to $29, my target, and then dropped back, what should expect next? Well, we are in that “broad pullback” I mentioned back in late August that would occur once $29 was hit. 

Technically speaking and looking at typical crowd behavior, I am expecting consolidation to continue for awhile under $29 per ounce. I call this recent pattern an A B C rally, and once the C wave ends at $29 in this case, forecasting the next move is extremely difficult and can be exasperating. The C wave ran from $19 to $29, and at the tops of those moves everyone is bullish and breathless. 

Figuring out how the crowd behaves after those patterns is similar to pulling a rabbit out of a hat. With that said, I would expect a 38-50% retracement of the $10 move to about $24 an ounce worst case, and then we should re-attack the $29 highs and likely move into the $32-$34 per ounce range within the next 60 days or so. Silver will continue to out-perform Gold for the foreseeable future as well if I’m right. 



www.TheMarketTrendForecast.com

 /i came i read i posted.  FYI only.
 
 
bsiong
    24-Nov-2010 09:18  
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Gold steady; investors eye Korea conflict, Ireland

SINGAPORE, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Gold held steady on 
Wednesday, 	
as investors closely watched the situation on the Korean 
peninsula after an exchange of fire on Tuesday, while concerns 
on Ireland's fiscal health remain.	
     	
 FUNDAMENTALS	
 * Spot gold edged down 0.2 percent to $1,372.95 an 	
ounce by 0023 GMT, after touching a 1-1/2 week high of $1,382 
in 	
the previous session.    	
 * U.S. gold futures shed $5.1 to $1,372.5.	
 * The unstable political situation in Ireland, together 
with the conflict in the Korea peninsula, pushed down most 
commodities and the euro as investors turned away from riskier 
assets.    	
 * The European Union urged Ireland on Tuesday to adopt an 	
austerity budget on time to unlock promised EU/IMF funding, in 	
response to a deepening political crisis that could derail the financial rescue. 
 * The euro languished at two-month lows early in Asia on 	
Wednesday, threatening to deepen its losses. 
 * South Korea warned North Korea of "enormous retaliation" 
if it took more aggressive steps after Pyongyang fired scores 
of artillery shells at a South Korean island in one of the 
heaviest attacks on its neighbour since the Korean War ended in 1953. 
For stories on the conflict: [ID:nKOREA]	
 * Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust rose to an 	
all-time high for the third straight session, to 10,893.68 
tonnes, by Nov 23.	
 * Spot silver fell 0.4 percent to $27.37 an ounce.	
 * The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in 	
the third quarter, but a slump in sales of previously owned 
homes in October indicated the recovery remains too anemic to reduce high unemployment. 
 MARKET NEWS    	
 * U.S. stocks sank on Tuesday as investors dumped risky 	
assets on escalating tensions in the Korean peninsula and as 	
euro-zone debt worries mounted. 
 * U.S. oil CLc1 was steady on Wednesday, after slipping about one percent in the previous session.


 PRICES
 Precious metals prices at 0023 GMT	
 Metal            Last    Change  Pct chg  YTD pct chg  Turnover	
 Spot Gold       1372.95   -3.25   -0.24     25.30              	
 Spot Silver       27.37   -0.11   -0.40     62.63              	
 Spot Platinum   1655.74    8.50   +0.52     12.87              	
 Spot Palladium   685.50   -0.97   -0.14     69.05              	
 TOCOM Gold      3685.00   24.00   +0.66     13.07        25008 	
 TOCOM Platinum  4485.00  -38.00   -0.84      2.37         4380 	
 TOCOM Silver      73.50   -0.90   -1.21     42.17          855 	
 TOCOM Palladium 1840.00  -54.00   -2.85     57.94          624 	
 Euro/Dollar      1.3385	
 Dollar/Yen        83.25	


 
 
 
bsiong
    24-Nov-2010 09:14  
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/23/2010

By Peter LaTonaNovember 23, 2010


At 4PM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
  • Gold price - $1,377.50
  • Silver price - $27.55
  • Platinum price - $1,654.00
  • Palladium price - $690.00


 

COMMENTARY: Gold prices have risen recently on concerns regarding the Fed QE2 and the European debt crisis.Today’s rise was fueled by the tension in North and South Korea. A somewhat overlooked factor also driving up gold prices are the mining strikes going on in Chile and labor problems in South Africa. Labor problems may have been overlooked because of the focus on gold’s relationship to the US Dollar. Supply issue don’t make great news stories, but they will factor into the price of gold. Will silver soon follow?

Gold spot price is up $18.20 – Silver price is up 3 cents – Platinum spot price is down $1.50 – Palladium price is up $3.30

 

 
 
bsiong
    23-Nov-2010 23:28  
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/23/2010

By Peter LaTonaNovember 23, 2010


At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
  • Gold price - $1,368.70
  • Silver price - $27.58
  • Platinum price - $1,645.80
  • Palladium price - $676.70


 




 
 
 
bsiong
    23-Nov-2010 16:44  
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Gold trims losses on risk-aversion after Korea exchange

Tue Nov 23, 2010 3:19am EST

 

 * North Korea artillery hits S. Korea island	
 * Gold may rebound to $1,380 - technicals [ID:nSGE6AM01A]	
 * Coming up: U.S. FOMC Nov 2-3 meeting minutes; 1900 GMT	
 	
 By Rujun Shen	
 SINGAPORE, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Gold trimmed early losses on 	
Tuesday after a major exchange of artillery fire on the Korean 	
peninsula boosted appetite of the safe-haven asset, as well as 	
the dollar.	
 North Korea on Tuesday fired dozens of artillery shells at 
a South Korean island, setting buildings on fire and prompting a 
return of fire by the South, Seoul's military and media reports said.
 "It tends to add to the already quite risk-averse 	
environment, surrounding European issues and Ireland," said 
Daniel Major, an analyst at RBS. It also comes along with 
"weak month-on-month commodity imports by China with potential 
implications of policy tightening, and sales of state 
stockpiles to curb inflation."	
 Spot gold moved back to positive territory 	
briefly after falling as much as 0.6 percent to $1,357.7 	
earlier in the day. It was trading at $1,364.15 an ounce at 
0742 GMT, down 0.1 percent.	
 U.S. gold futures gained 0.2 percent to $1,361 an 	
ounce.	The dollar and U.S. Treasuries rose and U.S. stock futures 	
fell on Tuesday.  
 "This is a trigger for the 'risk off' button. You'll  	
certainly see selling in risk-based markets like equities and  	
commodities until we get a better read on events," Mark Pervan, 
 	
senior commodities analyst at ANZ in Melbourne.	
 "There should be reasonable support for gold although we 	
often see a firmer dollar as the initial reaction to risk and 	
lower gold prices, but industrial metals might get hit, oil, 
too."	
 Ireland begins two nervous weeks of political maneuvering 
on 	Tuesday as the government dares the opposition to block an 	
austerity budget on which a multi-billion euro EU/IMF bailout 
Is 	riding.
 "Gold is likely to be rangebound in the near future, with 	
$1,340 being a good support level. The outlook is still firm,as 	
the European debt situation is not very optimistic," said a 	
Singapore-based dealer.	
 Physical selling at round $1,365 was spotted in early Asian 	
trade, but overall trade was scarce, especially as Japan was 	
closed for a public holiday, the dealer added.	
 Spot gold is expected to rally towards $1,380 per ounce as 
it completed a consolidation between $1,342 and $1,363, and is 	
poised to rise further, according to Reuters market analyst 
Wang 	
Tao. 
 For a graphic of the 24-hour gold technical outlook, see:	
 here	
 Gold is well supported by the uncertainties in Ireland's 	
fiscal stability, traders and analysts said.	
 "Precious metals have good support, as the situation in 	
Europe is still unstable despite the rescue package," said a 	
trader based in Hong Kong. "It has attracted funds in 
safe-haven 	buying."	
"Liquidity is going to dry out later this week due to the
Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. But the thin liquidity might
exaggerate price moves."	
 With the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday around the corner, 	
investors are watching for a batch of data, as well as minutes 	
from the Federal Reserve's meeting on Nov 2-3, where the Fed 	
decided to launch its $600 billion bond purchase programme.	
 Spot silver lost nearly one percent to $27.56 an 	
ounce.	
 Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust , the world's 	
largest physically-backed exchange-traded fund, hit a record 
high of 10,841.98 tonnes by Nov 22. 
 Precious metals prices at 0742 GMT	
 Metal             Last    Change  Pct chg  YTD pct chg Turnover	
 Spot Gold        1364.15   -1.94   -0.14     24.50             
 Spot Silver        27.56   -0.26   -0.93     63.76           


 
 
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