
In Singapore, there are no significant macro releases this week, but earnings reports due out may cheer holders of S?pore equities: SembCorp Industries, OCBC, China Energy, Rotary Engineering & SingTel. But this is a holiday shortened week in Singapore (Deepavali holiday break on Thursday). As such trading may be more muted, especially in the second half of the week given that investors may just wake up to another day of another nasty news from the US subprime/credit markets. Indeed with crude oil prices heading towards the US$100/b levels and US financial sector in some turmoil due to subprime/credit woes, US equities may be in for a bumpy ride this week. On the macro news front, most of key economic reports from the US are out in the second half of the week including US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony on the outlook for the US economy (Thursday). Indeed with the exception of the Institute for Supply Management's Oct servicessector survey (Monday), the other macro data releases are out in the second half of the week: 3Q nonfarm productivity and labor costs (Wednesday); Sep trade balance, Oct import prices and the University of Michigan's mid-November consumer sentiment index (Friday). The latter will be important because that is the first take of US consumer sentiment heading into the all-important holiday shopping season. It we get a poor reading for this and end-November, it may mean that Made-in-Asia Christmas goodies stay on the shelves. That may translate into significantly weaker orders at the start of 2008 for Asian businesses! So we shall see what Ben Bernanke will have to say. So it may be another nail-biting week for holders of Singapore and Asian equities.
Asian financial stocks sagged on Monday, extending their decline on worries about the credit market after U.S. financial giant Citigroup said it may suffer up to $11 billion in write-downs for subprime losses.
"That is why the market is very dubious today. Everyone is focusing on what is going to happen to Citigroup tonight (in U.S.
trade)," said Juliana Roadley, market analyst at CommSec in Sydney.
Adding to the gloom were concerns about Pakistan, which is bracing for protests against emergency rule, as well as high oil prices and persistent weakness in the dollar, which was hovering near a record low against the euro
Those worries overshadowed the crucial U.S. jobs report, which showed payrolls surged in October at twice the expected rate, suggesting the world's biggest economy was strong enough to handle a deep housing slump without falling into recession.
At 0026 GMT, Tokyo's Nikkei average <.N225> had fallen 0.8 percent while MSCI's measure of other Asia Pacific stocks <.MIAPJ0000PUS> shed 0.4 percent.
The MSCI index closed 0.7 percent lower last week after losing grip of a record high set on Nov. 1 following a widely expected U.S. interest rate cut.
South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> lost 0.7 percent and Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index <.AXJO> fell 1.1 percent.
Investors continued to give financials a wide berth, sending Japan's top bank Mitsubishi UFJ <8306.T>, Australia's newly listed Macquarie Group
MSCI's index of financial stocks in the region <.MIAP0FN00PUS> declined 0.7 percent.
Citigroup
The U.S. Labor Department said on Friday the world's biggest economy added 166,000 non-farm jobs in October.
Asian stocks are set to struggle on Monday as lingering credit worries and high oil prices offset the positive U.S. employment report, which showed jobs surged in October at twice the expected rate.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that Citigroup's
bank will take $8-$11 billion in additional write-downs amid worries about the bank's exposure to the credit markets.
Concerns about Pakistan, which is bracing for protests against emergency rule, may also curb appetite for stocks.
Asian shares listed on Wall Street <.BKAS> ended a touch lower on Friday even as U.S. stocks eked out a small gain, pushing the blue-chip Dow <.DJI> and technology-laden Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> modestly higher.
Strength in resource stocks such as mining giant BHP Billiton
Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Friday showed the economy added 166,000 non-farm jobs in October, suggesting the world's biggest economy was strong enough to handle a deep housing slump without falling into recession.
MSCI's measure of Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> closed 0.7 percent lower last week, after losing grip of a record high set on Nov. 1 following a widely expected U.S. interest rate cut.
Asian Small-Cap Stocks Reflect Lingering Caution
If stock buying in Asia demonstrates risk appetite among global investors, the region's small stocks offer one caveat.
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--If stock buying in Asia demonstrates risk appetite among global investors, the region's small stocks offer one caveat. That's because Asia's small stocks have lost their edge over large capitalization investments in recent months, which suggests that despite record returns from benchmark indexes, investors are still displaying a degree of caution. It is relative: Asian small stocks have been stellar performers on an absolute basis. The FTSE Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Small Cap Index is up about 40% so far this year. But it's worth noting that since the end of July, the index has underperformed a large-cap counterpart in the form of the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, which is up about 50%. Since the end of July, small stocks have added 11%, half the gain logged by large caps. "The 31st of July is a pretty important hinge to address," said Sam Hanbury, manager of the DWS Asian Small/Mid Cap Fund. "Since the end of July, clearly the subprime problems have resulted in a retreat of risk appetite and small caps are the victim of any (such) retreat," Hanbury said. The trend continued last month with large caps rising about 10% in October while small stocks added just under 7%. To a certain extent, the underperformance reflects an issue that weighs on small stocks all over the world - that they are more likely to fall victim to factors outside of their control, whether it's a slowing U.S. economy, or stronger local currencies that pinch the profits of exporters, or rising commodity prices. "There are many industrial companies in the small cap space and naturally small caps are price takers whereas large caps can be price makers," Hanbury said. But the small cap lag is being exacerbated by the fact some of the recent gains in Asia have simply been a result of performance chasing. Funds that missed out on the initial rally are looking to make up for lost time. "I think there are a lot of people who are behind the curve who are trying to get index performance - buying small caps will not get you index performance, buying large caps will," said Paul Schulte, chief regional equity strategist at Lehman Brothers. "The desire to keep up with the Joneses is causing this yawning gap between the small and the large caps," he said. Small stocks have also likely lost their appeal to foreign investors, who play a key role in Asian stock markets, because they can require a longer-term commitment than large caps. It's something funds aren't likely to do if they are feeling uncertain about the future. Small stocks are traded less actively and therefore are harder to build positions in, and, more importantly, harder to get out of when things turn ugly like they did this summer. "A lot of people did get burned by this," Schulte said. "A lot of these small-cap stocks fell when liquidity fell and they are not back to their old highs from July yet." That's especially true of Asia's hot market these days: India, where small stocks on the Bombay Stock Exchange rose nearly 8% in October, compared with a near-15% rise for the blue-chip Sensitive 30 Index. "If you look at the kinds of inflows we've been getting into the country, there's a lot of hedge fund money coming in," said Paras Adenwala, chief investment officer at ING Investment Management in India. "They have a very short-term horizon in mind, and it makes sense for them to be in large caps," he said. |
|
Retail Investors May Hold The Key | |
The laggard performance also reflects caution from another group of investors who don't usually have to worry about liquidity - individual investors. "Even retail investors have come to prefer blue chips," said Kim Jangwon, an analyst at Hanadaetoo Securities in Seoul, who covers small stocks. The return of retail investors, Hanbury added, could be one factor that returns small stocks to their dominant position. "Retail investors could come pouring back into these markets," he said, "and when Asian retail gets committed it can really drive markets very hard." That could happen as time passes and investors decide Asian companies are not as exposed to the summer's credit crunch as they expected. "Perceived risk fades as memory fades," Schulte said. Plus, as funds saturate their large cap investments, they'll have to start looking to smaller companies again, Hanbury thinks. "Do institutions favor large caps? Yes, but what we normally see in any cycle is that the institutions start with the large caps and then they work down the list. The money does work its way down," he said. When it does, some companies will do better than others. Hanadaetoo's Kim said "the gains will be led by only a few stocks," like those with solid earnings and a positive outlook. Hanbury added a key turning point for small versus large cap performance could be when companies report their 2007 earnings, early next year. "These companies are going to produce very good numbers and people are just going to have to wake up and look at them," he said. Among the sectors that Hanbury has holdings in are property stocks in Hong Kong, like Tai Cheung Holdings Ltd. (0088.HK), and hospital companies like Malaysia's KPJ Healthcare (5878.KU). "The three things you can bet on in this world is we are going to get older, richer and fatter, and the hospital theme plays into this," he said. Of course, even as smaller stocks underperform blue chips, their market capitalization is growing in size. Over time, that alone can mean some of these companies will come onto the radar of funds that are focused on large caps. "Many of these mid-cap stocks will become tomorrow's large caps," noted ING's Adenwala, "but it's not going to happen in one year it's not going to happen in two years. |
Asian stock markets are off their session lows Friday but still trading nervously as investors digest fresh evidence of a weakening US economy and the prospect that they can't count on further support from the Federal Reserve.
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--If stock buying in Asia demonstrates risk appetite among global investors, the region's small stocks offer one caveat. That's because Asia's small stocks have lost their edge over large capitalization investments in recent months, which suggests that despite record returns from benchmark indexes, investors are still displaying a degree of caution. It is relative: Asian small stocks have been stellar performers on an absolute basis. The FTSE Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Small Cap Index is up about 40% so far this year. But it's worth noting that since the end of July, the index has underperformed a large-cap counterpart in the form of the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, which is up about 50%. Since the end of July, small stocks have added 11%, half the gain logged by large caps. "The 31st of July is a pretty important hinge to address," said Sam Hanbury, manager of the DWS Asian Small/Mid Cap Fund. "Since the end of July, clearly the subprime problems have resulted in a retreat of risk appetite and small caps are the victim of any (such) retreat," Hanbury said. The trend continued last month with large caps rising about 10% in October while small stocks added just under 7%. To a certain extent, the underperformance reflects an issue that weighs on small stocks all over the world - that they are more likely to fall victim to factors outside of their control, whether it's a slowing U.S. economy, or stronger local currencies that pinch the profits of exporters, or rising commodity prices. "There are many industrial companies in the small cap space and naturally small caps are price takers whereas large caps can be price makers," Hanbury said. But the small cap lag is being exacerbated by the fact some of the recent gains in Asia have simply been a result of performance chasing. Funds that missed out on the initial rally are looking to make up for lost time. "I think there are a lot of people who are behind the curve who are trying to get index performance - buying small caps will not get you index performance, buying large caps will," said Paul Schulte, chief regional equity strategist at Lehman Brothers. "The desire to keep up with the Joneses is causing this yawning gap between the small and the large caps," he said. Small stocks have also likely lost their appeal to foreign investors, who play a key role in Asian stock markets, because they can require a longer-term commitment than large caps. It's something funds aren't likely to do if they are feeling uncertain about the future. Small stocks are traded less actively and therefore are harder to build positions in, and, more importantly, harder to get out of when things turn ugly like they did this summer. "A lot of people did get burned by this," Schulte said. "A lot of these small-cap stocks fell when liquidity fell and they are not back to their old highs from July yet." That's especially true of Asia's hot market these days: India, where small stocks on the Bombay Stock Exchange rose nearly 8% in October, compared with a near-15% rise for the blue-chip Sensitive 30 Index. "If you look at the kinds of inflows we've been getting into the country, there's a lot of hedge fund money coming in," said Paras Adenwala, chief investment officer at ING Investment Management in India. "They have a very short-term horizon in mind, and it makes sense for them to be in large caps," he said. |
|
Retail Investors May Hold The Key | |
The laggard performance also reflects caution from another group of investors who don't usually have to worry about liquidity - individual investors. "Even retail investors have come to prefer blue chips," said Kim Jangwon, an analyst at Hanadaetoo Securities in Seoul, who covers small stocks. The return of retail investors, Hanbury added, could be one factor that returns small stocks to their dominant position. "Retail investors could come pouring back into these markets," he said, "and when Asian retail gets committed it can really drive markets very hard." That could happen as time passes and investors decide Asian companies are not as exposed to the summer's credit crunch as they expected. "Perceived risk fades as memory fades," Schulte said. Plus, as funds saturate their large cap investments, they'll have to start looking to smaller companies again, Hanbury thinks. "Do institutions favor large caps? Yes, but what we normally see in any cycle is that the institutions start with the large caps and then they work down the list. The money does work its way down," he said. When it does, some companies will do better than others. Hanadaetoo's Kim said "the gains will be led by only a few stocks," like those with solid earnings and a positive outlook. Hanbury added a key turning point for small versus large cap performance could be when companies report their 2007 earnings, early next year. "These companies are going to produce very good numbers and people are just going to have to wake up and look at them," he said. Among the sectors that Hanbury has holdings in are property stocks in Hong Kong, like Tai Cheung Holdings Ltd. (0088.HK), and hospital companies like Malaysia's KPJ Healthcare (5878.KU). "The three things you can bet on in this world is we are going to get older, richer and fatter, and the hospital theme plays into this," he said. Of course, even as smaller stocks underperform blue chips, their market capitalization is growing in size. Over time, that alone can mean some of these companies will come onto the radar of funds that are focused on large caps. "Many of these mid-cap stocks will become tomorrow's large caps," noted ING's Adenwala, "but it's not going to happen in one year it's not going to happen in two years. |
Southeast Asian stock markets slipped on Friday as financial stocks such as DBS
Malaysian stocks <.KLSE> fell 0.8 percent after touching a new intraday high a day earlier, while the Thai <.SETI> and Vietnamese <.VNI> markets both dropped 0.9 percent.
But the Jakarta Composite Index <.JKSE> bucked the trend and edged up 0.2 percent, helped by top telecoms firm PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (Telkom)
"The direct impact from the U.S. is more on sentiment rather than anything else. Funds with a longer-term view have already positioned for slower growth in the States," said Michael Lim, a fund manager at Prudential Asset Management.
Shares in Barclays
In Singapore, the region's largest bank DBS Group
"We reckon that OCBC is unlikely to sail through the quarter unscathed," Daiwa analyst David Lum said in a client note, pointing to the write-downs on collateralised debt obligation-related investments that the two other Singapore banks have recently made.
Singapore Telecommunications
In Thailand, Siam Commercial Bank
Thai losses were led by top energy firm PTT PCL
In Indonesia, Telkom led gains with a 2.2 percent rise.
Mining stocks also helped counter falls in banking shares as investors expected that demand for ores from China and India would drive strong earnings for the miners.
PT International Nickel Indonesia
The Philippine market <.PSI> was closed for a holiday.
Wow... What a bloody day.
Name | Prev | Last | +/- | % | High | Low |
All-S Equities Com | 1314.66 | 1289.15 | -25.51 | -1.9 | 1293.94 | 1277.31 |
All-S Equities Cons | 651.06 | 646.72 | -4.34 | -0.7 | 646.94 | 635.71 |
All-S Equities Fin | 2623.53 | 2558.28 | -65.25 | -2.5 | 2579.79 | 2540.91 |
All-S Equities Hotels | 1507.30 | 1498.14 | -9.16 | -0.6 | 1504.56 | 1492.49 |
All-S Equities Mfg | 1568.60 | 1552.76 | -15.84 | -1.0 | 1552.76 | 1537.20 |
All-S Equities MultiI | 2927.59 | 2866.95 | -60.64 | -2.1 | 2901.21 | 2865.56 |
All-S Equities Prop | 1555.08 | 1521.45 | -33.63 | -2.2 | 1530.92 | 1510.94 |
All-S Equities TSC | 1908.88 | 1863.02 | -45.86 | -2.4 | 1876.04 | 1855.18 |
All-SingEquities | 1043.98 | 1023.44 | -20.54 | -2.0 | 1027.71 | 1018.40 |
BT-SRI | 1973.12 | 1926.18 | -46.94 | -2.4 | 1941.13 | 1916.56 |
SingEquities Elect | 109.31 | 106.92 | -2.39 | -2.2 | 107.93 | 106.52 |
SingEquities Foreign | 391.74 | 384.25 | -7.49 | -1.9 | 393.55 | 382.84 |
SingEquities Mainbd | 196.97 | 193.10 | -3.87 | -2.0 | 194.09 | 192.25 |
Straits Times Index | 3803.56 | 3715.32 | -88.24 | -2.3 | 3746.98 | 3695.94 |
UOB Sesdaq | 236.36 | 233.24 | -3.12 | -1.3 | 234.05 | 229.51 |
STI stop at exactly the support trend line. how sweet. if it break 3695 or worst close below it, than GG for STI for the short or even mid term.
Chart wise, i m more bias of more downward movememnt, yups i think sti maybe testing oct low again
hmmm

Pinnacle, you might be right....

Asian stocks fell nearly 2 percent on Friday, led by financial shares after broker downgrades of U.S. banking giant Citigroup
Those concerns dampened appetite for riskier assets, boosting safe-haven Japanese government bonds and the helping the low-yielding yen hold most of Thursday's sharp gains, while snuffing out the rally in U.S. crude
Oil was at $93.76 a barrel, down from an all-time high of $96.24 set a day ago, and gold
At 0220 GMT, Tokyo's Nikkei average <.N225> had fallen 1.7 percent, while MSCI's measure of other Asia Pacific stocks <.MIAPJ0000PUS> shed 1.8 percent.
Just a day earlier, the MSCI index reached an all-time high before ending a shade lower after the boost from a widely expected U.S. interest rate cut faded.
"The market was getting a bit complacent, thinking that the Fed will fix everything. It's not going to be that easy," said Eric Betts, equities strategist at Nomura Australia.
Bad news for stock investors came in the form of a ratings downgrade, where CIBC World Markets cited concerns Citi
The news, which drove Citi's shares down nearly 7 percent, coupled with disappointing earnings from Exxon Mobil
[ID:nN01480537] "Investors will take the U.S. market plunge as a chance to take profit from a recent bull run," said Lee Kyung-soo, a market analyst at Daewoo Securities. Asia ex-Japan stocks are up nearly 45 percent so far this year.
Data showing a slowdown in factory growth in October that suggested the U.S. economy was cooling from its surprisingly robust third-quarter pace also weighed on sentiment.
Stock markets fell across the board with South Korea <.KS11>, Australia <.AXJO> and Hong Kong <.HSI> all down more than 1 percent. All three markets had hit record highs this week.
FINANCIALS HIT Bank stocks bore the brunt of the selloff with Japan's top lender Mitsubishi UFJ <8306.T>, Australia's Macquarie Bank
Woori Financial Group <053000.KS> slid 3.7 percent a day after it wrote off $166 million of bonds linked to U.S. subprime mortgages as losses, denting third quarter earnings.
[ID:nSEO114590].
Japanese automakers were not spared despite posting positive sales in a slumping U.S. market that saw Chrysler LLC and Ford Motor
Nissan Motor <7201.T> fell 3.6 percent, while Toyota <7203.T>, which snapped a three-month streak of lower U.S. sales, shed 2.8 percent. [ID:nN01209102] YEN HOLDS GAINS, EYES ON PAYROLLS While off early lows, the dollar held below 115 yen
Against the dollar, the single currency bought $1.4430
But further gains in the yen will depend on the influential U.S. non-farm payrolls report due later on Friday, which is expected to show an increase of 80,000 jobs and a steady jobless rate of 4.7 percent. [ID:nN31305197] "If the U.S. jobs data is weaker-than-expected, expectations for a December rate cut will be reheated," said a trader at a Japanese bank.
Weakness in equities helped bolster government bonds, causing yields to fall. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond
Not much movement.
Its going to be another sleepy day.
The maket seems quite cool and stable this morning.
Since it a friday, expecting it to drive down lower in the afternoon.
Hunters... ready your bullets....
yes, those in their right frame of mind so we need to spread the words around...
BBs play the market with "news" and Contral Players panic with "news".. so when we know our foundamental and economy are strong, why must we pull on our noise by others ??? STI, be strong, be wise and be confident
Singapore's Straits Times Index <.STI> fell 1.9 percent in early trade on Friday after broker downgrades for Citigroup
By 0102 GMT, the STI stood at 3,733.86 points, with banks leading falls. DBS Group
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> sank 2.60 percent on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 2.25 percent.
Qotes:
Singapore shares may open lower Friday, taking their cue from Wall Street's sharp falls overnight as the market remains wary of high oil prices.
Light sweet crude settled at 93.49 US dollars per barrel after rising to a record high above 96 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The bearish mood may be enhanced by the slight decline in Singapore's October Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) which slipped to 52.9 points from 53.9 points in September, indicating slower manufacturing activity. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
Fewer new export orders and production output caused the PMI drop, data released by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management showed late Thursday.
"We have a few important market variables coming up, and oil prices being at the level where they are now it's not a surprise to find the market move between optimism and caution," said Song Seng Wun, research head at CIMB-GK Securities.
The market is looking forward to the release of the US October jobs reports due out later today for further clues about the direction of the US economy. Yesterday, the benchmark Straits Times Index fell 2.14 points or 0.1 percent to 3,803.56, after swinging between a low of 3,796.93 and a high of 3,842.95 points.
Gainers beat decliners 405 to 400 with 1,837 stocks unchanged.
Trading volume totaled 2.7 billion shares valued at 3.0 billion Singapore dollars. Shipyard operator SembCorp Marine may be of interest to investors after its net profit rose 82 percent to 81.4 million Singapore dollars in the third quarter from a year earlier, boosted by robust demand for oil exploration rigs.
While the company expects to book an exceptional gain of 230 million dollars in the fourth quarter from the recent sale of Cosco Corp Singapore shares, the gains maybe offset by foreign exchange losses. The company said that its unrealized forex losses widened to 220 million US dollars from 165 million dollars on October 22 when the company first disclosed the potential losses.
Asian stocks fell on Friday led by financial shares such as Shinhan Financial Group, as worries about the credit market flared up after brokerages downgraded U.S. banking giant Citigroup.
CIBC World Markets cited concerns Citi
The news, which drove Citi's shares down nearly 7 percent, coupled with disappointing earnings from Exxon Mobil
"Investors will take the U.S. market plunge as a chance to take profit from a recent bull run," said Lee Kyung-soo, a market analyst at Daewoo Securities.
At 0024 GMT, Tokyo's Nikkei average <.N225> had fallen 2.0 percent, while MSCI's measure of other Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> lost 0.9 percent.
Just a day earlier, the MSCI index hit a record high during the session before ending a shade lower following the widely expected U.S. interest rate cut.
"The market was getting a bit complacent, thinking that the Fed will fix everything. It's not going to be that easy," said Eric Betts, equities strategist at Nomura Australia.
South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> lost 1.6 percent and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index <.AXJO> dropped 1.9 percent. Both markets also reached record highs in the previous session.
Investors dumped major banks in the region including Mitsubishi UFJ <8306.T>, Australia's top investment bank Macquarie Bank
Woori Financial Group <053000.KS> slid 2.7 percent a day after it wrote off $166 million of bonds linked to U.S. subprime mortgages as losses, denting third quarter earnings.
[ID:nSEO114590].
Nissan Motor <7201.T> fell 2.5 percent, despite having posted a near 9 percent gain in U.S. sales for October, outperforming a slumping U.S. market that saw Chrysler LLC and Ford Motor
On Wall Street, the blue-chip Dow <.DJI> and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> both dropped more than 2 percent.
Data showing a slowdown in factory growth in October that suggested the U.S. economy was cooling from its surprisingly robust third-quarter pace also weighed on sentiment.
No matter how the Govt try to make this little Red Dot economy looks Excellence, it can only thrive if the rest of the economies are also growing. We are just too small to make any impact on this Earth. Be realistic.