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Major commodity prices to stay higher this year : Standard & Poor
January 10 2011 17:00 GMT
LONDON (Commodity Online) : Global commodity prices including oil and gold are almost assured of a better finish this year too, according to Standard & Poor.
Analysts with Standard & Poor's Equity Research said there are largely positive signs for both the energy and materials sectors in 2011.
For 2011, Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services (ERS) predicts that the bull run in gold will continue. But it expects that the metal will "consolidate in a sideways pattern" for part of the year following 2010's 30% gain.
"In our view, some backing and filling is normal in an ongoing bull market and we look for gold to finish 2011 at the $1,600 level, up from $1,421 per ounce at the end of 2010. We believe the fundamentals for the market will remain the same, with the threat of sovereign debt defaults and general currency instability increasing the appeal for gold as an alternative monetary asset. Also, a possible upside acceleration in commodity prices in 2011 could add to the demand for gold as a hedge against falling currencies," according to the research company.
Moving beyond gold, for 2011, ERS looks for rising prices and volumes for base metals and minerals on the expectation for continued growth in the global economy and tight supply for such commodities as copper and iron ore. However, ERS cautioned that its positive outlook is "tempered somewhat by concerns that growing imbalances in China's property markets could lead to less vibrant demand for base metals used for construction. As ERS sees it, what appears to be excessive construction of both commercial and residential buildings along with high ratios of property prices to rents could lead to reduced demand and lower prices for base metals and minerals."
In the energy sector, the analyst company sees continued outperformance by crude oil relative to natural gas. However, the current rig count of deepwater floaters in the US Gulf of Mexico (32, not including three newbuilds due for delivery in the second half of the year) is expected by ERS to drop by as many as eight units as operators lose patience with the slow pace of permit issuance in the region.
ERS also forecasts consolidation in the oil and gas markets. "While ERS thinks natural gas remains a solid long-term play, short-term natural gas prospects continue to look weak given depressed prices, putting pressure on smaller players that lack access to the currently more promising liquids-rich plays. ERS thinks this will spur more natural gas acreage deals in a buyer's market We see the integrateds increasing production of natural gas by 10% in 2011, fuelled by acquisitions, compared to just 1% growth in liquids production," it stated.
By Timothy OakesJanuary 10, 2011
At 4 PM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
- Gold price - $1,376.90
- Silver price - $29.14
- Platinum price - $1,743.60
- Palladium price - $753.50
COMMENTARY: Today has been a relatively slow economic news day with earnings announcements expected over the next few days and the
tragic news of Representative Giffords of Arizona dominating the headlines. The stock
market ended a little lower ahead of Alcoa earnings. Gold is rebounding from last week’s losses as concerns
over the euro zone continue to buoy the price of Gold. Anne-Laure Tremblay of BNP Paribas says they “continue to hold a positive view of the Gold price for the balance of 2011,” with sovereign risk remaining a key theme for Gold in 2011.
Gold spot price is up $7.00 – Silver price is up 45 cents – Platinum price is up $7.30 – Palladium spot price is down $3.40
/
LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Gold rose on Monday, after
shedding 3.5 percent in the first week of 2011, with fears over
the euro zone debt crisis boosting the metals safe-haven appeal
and supported by bargain hunters in the physical market.
PRICES
* Spot gold XAU= was bid at $1,372.60 an ounce at 0750 GMT
from $1,368.80 late in New York on Friday.
* Silver XAG= was at $28.90 an ounce from $28.69.
MARKET NEWS
* The euro touched four-month lows against the dollar as
stops were triggered amid mounting worries about Europe's debt
crisis, after a source said Portugal was under growing pressure
to accept EU/IMF aid.
* Oil retreated from almost $90 a barrel, but still traded 1
percent higher after a leak shut an Alaskan pipeline that
carries 12 percent of U.S. crude output. [O/R]
* Fears that debt-ridden Portugal may have to seek
government aid kept the euro near a four-month low and appetite
for risky assets weak, although a rebound in oil prices helped
energy shares in Asia.
* European stocks were set to dip on Monday, eroding last
week's strong gains, as investors brace for this week's flurry
of debt auctions in the euro zone and the start of the U.S.
earnings season with aluminium major Alcoa (AA.N) first to
report. [.EU]
FUNDAMENTALS
* India's gold buying continued on Monday afternoon after
prices fell 1.8 percent in the previous week, as traders sought
to stock in anticipation of the upcoming harvest festival and on
wedding demand, dealers said.
* Holdings in the world's largest silver-backed
exchange-traded fund, iShares Silver Trust (SLV), fell to
10,839.69 tonnes by Jan 7, from 10,892.87 tonnes on Jan 6.
* The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR
Gold Trust (GLD), said its holdings fell to 1,271.164 tonnes by
Jan 7 from 1,272.682 tonnes on Jan 6.
TECHNICALS
* Gold support at $1,350 an ounce, resistance at $1,400 and
14-day RSI at 45.49.
* Platinum support at $1,700 an ounce, resistance at $1,758
and 14-day RSI at 55.49.
* Silver support at $28.30 an ounce, resistance at $30.25
and 14-day RSI at 48.19.
(Reporting by Rebekah Curtis; Editing by Alison Birrane)
By Ryan SchwimmerJanuary 10, 2011
At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
- Gold price - $1,372.90
- Silver price - $28.95
- Platinum price - $1,744.30
- Palladium price - $755.80
COMMENTARY: Precious metals are flat this morning, but there are plenty of stories around the world brewing under the surface that may affect prices at some point. Here in the U.S.,
we had the tragedy in Arizona. In Europe,
Portugal is the hot topic, facing pressure to accept aid to prevent its crisis from spreading to other countries. It’s not just Portugal, though, as it started with Greece and Ireland, and more could be on the way. An author of a new book also says that this euro zone debt crisis
could extend to China, and then America, threatening global recovery.
Andrey Kryuchenkov of VTB Capital says, “The escalation of euro zone troubles from here will see a slight price rebound [for gold] – maybe not to the (early January) highs, but there is some risk-averse buying.” Of course, Kryuchenkov speaks of the safe-haven “insurance policy” appeal of gold and other precious metals. On a bit more of an extreme side,
Robin Griffiths of Cazenove Capital says that investors who don’t own gold are “insane,”mostly because “real assets hedge paper money being printed into oblivion, so you’ve got to own gold and you’ve got to own other commodity-related investments still.”
Gold spot price is up $3.00 – Silver spot price is up 26 cents – Platinum spot price is up $8.00 – Palladium spot price is down $1.20.
Investment bubble can take gold to $8,000/oz
January 09, 2011 at 03:55
By Bill Bonner
The supply of paper currencies is infinite; the supply of gold is finite. This striking contrast provides an excellent reason to exchange the former for the latter, writes Rob Marstrand, chief investment strategist for the Bonner & Partners Family Office.
The gold supply is limited...very limited. According to one estimate, all the above-ground gold in the world totals between 120,000 and 140,000 metric tonnes. Let's split the difference and call it 130,000 metric tonnes (about 4.2 billion troy ounces). If you brought it all together and made it into a gigantic cube, it would measure about 19 meters along each side – about three meters short of the length of a tennis court.
Furthermore, about 20% to 25% of all the gold is stored in the world's central banks as country reserves. So the total amount of gold in private hands is enough for just 14 grams for each living person – that's less than half the quantity of a standard one-ounce coin like a US Gold Eagle or a South African Krugerrand Gold Coin.
At present, only about 2.25% of the world's total wealth – or 4.5% of world's financial wealth – is allocated to gold, including jewelry. But resurgent inflation could raise that percentage dramatically, while raising the Gold Price dramatically in the process.
To gain perspective, let's examine a brief history of the Gold Price relative to US inflation. The Gold Price peaked in January 1980 at $850 per ounce. But this peak was very brief. Gold jumped 29% alone in the run towards $660. Probably a better reference point for the market top is the average price during 1980 as a whole. This was $615/oz. Since then, the Gold Price has increased only 125%.
Over the same timespan, however, the government's most widely quoted inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has increased 185%. Therefore, if the Gold Price had increased as much as the CPI, it would be selling for $1753/oz today, not $1390/oz. But the official inflation figures might not be the real story.
Using alternative inflation figures calculated by ShadowStats.com, consumer prices have soared an astounding 789% since 1980, which means that the inflation- adjusted Gold Price would be $5,467/oz.
Interestingly, if we look at the market bottoms for gold – 1970 and 2001 – instead of the market tops, the ShadowStats data seem to provide a much more accurate inflation gauge than the CPI. For example, in January 1970 – before gold's 10-year bull run – the price of gold was just $35/oz. Thirty-one years later – after soaring to more than $800 an ounce in 1980 – the big bear market in gold bottomed out at $256/oz. And the average price for 2001 was $271/oz.
Therefore, during this 31-year period – through gold's full bull and bear market cycle – the Gold Price advanced 674%. Over the same timeframe, the ShadowStats inflation measure advanced a nearly identical 688%. By contrast, the CPI increased only 370% during this period. In other words, the cumulative CPI readings from 1970 to 2001 failed to account for all the inflation indicated by the rising Gold Price. The ShadowStats figures, on the other hand, were pretty much bang on target.
I'm staying conservative, and there's nothing to suggest that just because using the ShadowStats inflation worked for the bear market lows it will work for the bull market highs. But if the ShadowStats figures above are a guide, then maybe they point to a price north of $5,000/oz for gold – or even $7,000 for a short time.
I've just thrown a lot of numbers at you. But the point is this: gold looks like it has plenty of upside. But let's be really clear about one thing. I'm not making a hard prediction or setting a price target here. These figures just provide reference points. We also need to watch out for gold "going mainstream" – when references make their way into TV programs, when taxi drivers start talking to you about gold and when your mother calls to ask how to buy an ounce of the stuff.
I can easily see gold getting into the $2000/oz to $3,000/oz range in the next few years – maybe higher. And there's a very real possibility that we'll have a short-term spike – a genuine investment bubble – that takes us into the $5,000/oz to $8,000/oz.
None of this is certain. And it most likely won't happen smoothly. There could even be big corrections along the way – like between December 1974 and August 1976 when gold fell 47% before powering ahead again. But I hope I've shown you that there are good reasons to think that gold still has plenty of room on the upside.
//
Gold prices to average $1457/oz in 2011: LBMA Survey
January 08 2011 02:25 GMT
By Allen Sykora
(Kitco News) - Gold prices are forecast to average $1,457 an ounce during 2011, a 19% increase over the 2010 average, according to an annual survey of analysts released by the London Bullion Market Association Friday.
Analysts collectively predicted silver will average $29.88 an ounce, which would be a 48% increase on the 2010 average price.
The 2011 average platinum price was forecast at $1,813, a rise of 12.6% from the 2010 average. For palladium, the 2011 prediction was $814.65, a 54.8% increase from the 2010 average.
Twenty-four analysts took part in the LBMA survey, listing their estimates for the high, low and average prices for the precious metals in 2011, based on London fixings.
The average gold forecast of $1,457 is in line with the forecast of $1,450 made by delegates to the 2010 LBMA Precious Metals Conference held in Berlin in September.
For gold, the average 2011 high forecast for the year was $1,632 and the average low was $1,268. The comparable figures for silver were $38.36 and $22.93.
For platinum, the average high forecast for the year was $2,015 and the average low was $1,598. The comparable figures for palladium were $993.35 and $631.17.
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News
by Peter LaTona January 7, 2011
At 4PM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
- Gold price - $1,370.70
- Silver price - $28.72
- Platinum price - $1,736.80
- Palladium price - $754.40
COMMENTARY: Today followed the trend of the last couple days as precious metals moved slightly lower in daily trading. They began at their low and then rebounded on the disappointing Labor Department’s nonfarm jobs report.
Greece became the world’s riskiest borrower in the 4th quarter of 2010, surpassing Venezuela, while Spain, Portugal and Ireland grew riskier than Iraq. There will be much more to come on this European debt crisis.
Ben Bernanke testified before Congress today that it will take 4-5 years before employment numbers normalize. Of course, there are many factors such as low inflation that could draw this out even further. Bottom line is that we are in a fragile economic environment and it would not take much to tip us over.
Gold spot price finished down $2.00 – Silver spot was down 41 cents – Platinum spot price was up $3.70 – Palladium price was down $9.50
Gold Prices Dip to Finish Tough Week
NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Gold prices were unable to make up any of this week's lost ground on Friday after a mixed U.S. jobs report.
Gold for February delivery lost $2.80 to $1,368.90 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price traded as high as $1,379 and as low as $1,352.70 during Friday's session.
The U.S. dollar index was up 0.19% to $81 while the euro was slightly lower at $1.29 vs. the dollar. The spot gold price was losing $1.20, according to Kitco's gold index.
Gold slowed this week's bleeding after December's job growth lifted gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
The private sector only added 113,000 jobs in December much lower than the 200,000 expected. The only upside was that the unemployment rate dipped to 9.4% as perhaps people left the work force.
The conflicting datapoints confused investors somewhat and gold prices like confusion. Gold had been down double digits for the second time this week and then rallied modestly, but settled slightly below the 50-day moving average.
Gold prices need to hold above the 100-day moving average of $1,330 an ounce or else face an even deeper correction. Traders who sold positions this week will most likely keep cash on the sidelines until they are sure the deep correction is over.
Thursday was "the fourth day of consecutive declines," says Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco.com. "Pretty much the largest two-day decline [since Wednesday night] in about a year." Prices have shed 4.4% this week.
If "gold manages eventually ... to overcome the previous highs of $1,430 then we could look for another $50 addition in value," predicts Nadler. "Absent that and absent buyers ... we could revisit in fact the mid-$1,200's to $1,300."
Leading the charge in gold's selloff was growing investor confidence in the U.S. economic recovery because of improving economic data.
A consequence of better data is that investors become less enamored of putting their cash into government bonds. As a result, yields have risen, making the U.S. dollar worth more. Gold and the dollar often move inversely to each other.
The underlying expectation is that if the jobs landscape improves and if growth continues then the Federal Reserve might alter its $600 billion bond-buying program or raise key interest rates. This seems like a long shot, however, as the Fed in its minutes for December, reiterated its commitment to the program and Friday's jobs number failed to produce its big wow factor.
Also Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in testimony to the Senate Budget Committee this morning that the jobs market could take four to five years to normalize.
The Fed most likely will wait until the seasonality shakes out of the jobs market before considering any policy decisions, so those betting on gold as protection against a loose monetary policy can keep doing so.
[....]
Jobs Number Boost Gold Prices
NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Gold prices were modestly higher after a mixed U.S. jobs report.Gold for February delivery was adding $3.90 to $1,375.60 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price Friday has traded as high as $1,376.60 and as low as $1,352.70.
The U.S. dollar index was down 0.09% to $80.77 while the euro was slightly higher at $1.30 vs. the dollar. The spot gold price was up more than $4, according to Kitco's gold index.
//
Gold poses for 5th day of decline ahead of US job data
* Gold consolidates; physical buying supports
* Spot gold may fall to $1,355-technicals
* Coming up: U.S. non-farm payrolls, Dec; 1330 GMT
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Spot gold posed for a fifth
consecutive day of loss on Friday, pressured by the strength
in the dollar, as investors wait for a key U.S. employment
report due later in the day for clues on the health of the
economy.
Some economists raised their forecast for non-farm
payrolls, after Thursday's ADP report showed a surprise jump
in private jobs number for December.
A Reuters poll showed that payrolls likely increased by
175,000 in December, revised up from 140,000.
"Gold is probably consolidating ahead of the non-farm
payrolls data," said Darren Heathcote, head of trading at Investec Australia.
"If we see a weaker number, it would be negative for the
dollar and positive for gold. Unless the number is much
stronger than expected, we probably won't see much move in
gold prices."
But some analysts said the non-farm payrolls number is not
always correlated with the ADP figures, and the dollar could
face some downside risk if the data turned out not as strong.
The dollar index edged higher on Friday, building
on gains in the previous session, while the euro weakened to
its lowest in nearly four months against the dollar.
Spot gold edged down 0.3 percent at $1,366.70 an
ounce by 0706 GMT, posing for a fifth straight day of loss,
the longest losing streak unseen since May 2010.
Spot gold was on course for a 3.7 percent loss from the
previous week, its largest weekly loss since late May.
U.S. gold futures also declined 0.3 percent at
$1,367.6.
A bearish target at $1,355 per ounce is unchanged for spot
gold as a downward wave "5" has not completed, said
Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst.
For a 24-hour gold technical outlook:
Physical buying in Asia continued to give support, as
jewellers, bullion traders and investors are lured by the
current price level, some $60 below its record high of
$1,430.95 hit a month ago.
"There is strong buying in Asia on physical market. People
are still looking at a good trend this year," said Ronald
Leung, a dealer at Lee Cheong Dealers in Hong Kong.
But buyers were a bit cautious ahead of the non-farm
payrolls release, which is expected to give a clear direction
to the market.
"Clients are waiting for prices to go even lower, then
they'll buy on the dip," said a second Hong Kong-based dealer.
/////
By Peter LaTonaJanuary 6, 2011
At 4PM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
- Gold price – $1,372.40
- Silver price – $29.12
- Platinum price – $1,735.00
- Palladium price – $763.30
COMMENTARY: Today’s news stays steady on its positive outlook for the stock markets as well as the U.S. dollar moving slightly higher recently. Fewer Americans filed for unemployment checks which boosts prospects for the labor market whose numbers will be released tomorrow. “You’re at the bottom of the trading range, and so there will be bargain hunters,” said Frank McGhee, head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago, “If all the jobs numbers come to fruition, there will be some element of reflation, and
the initial sellers in gold this week will become buyers.” There is also news
that Stillwater Mining will provide palladium to General Motors until 2013 that might affect palladium’s prices. In all, it seems as though the precious metals numbers may be affected by tomorrow’s jobs report.
Gold spot price is down $2.30 – Silver spot price is down 10 cents – Platinum spot price is up $2.90 – Palladium spot price is down $13.10
/
Gold steady after falls on upbeat U.S. job data
SINGAPORE, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Spot gold prices were steady on Thursday, after falling to a three-week low in the previous
session, as upbeat U.S. employment data dented safe-haven
appetite, setting the focus on more detailed non-farm payrolls
data on Friday.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold was little changed at $1,376.49 an
ounce at 0033 GMT, after touching $1,363.8 in the previous
session, its lowest since Dec 16.
* U.S. gold futures gained 0.2 percent to $1,376.8.
* Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed
exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust , continued to
slip, down to a seven-month low of 1,272.682 tonnes by Jan 5,
down 2 percent from 1,297.726 tonnes on Dec 7 when gold hit
the record high.
* The U.S. services sector grew last month at its quickest
pace since mid-2006 and private-sector hiring was triple
economists' forecasts, though recovery across Europe remained
mixed.
* The dollar held on to its gains from the precious
session, and is seen to strengthen after strong private
employment data lifted hopes for Friday's non-farm payrolls
data.
* Inflation remains a top concern for China, the world's
second largest economy. China's central bank governor Zhou
Xiaochuan warned that inflation was mounting and that more
could be done to guide the growth of money.
MARKET NEWS
* The creation of three times as many private-sector jobs
as expected turned Wall Street's early losses into gains on
Wednesday, extending a rally investors worried had come too
far too fast.
PRICES
Precious metals prices 0033 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover
Spot Gold 1376.49 -1.16 -0.08 -3.03
Spot Silver 29.53 0.29 +0.99 -4.31
Spot Platinum 1729.74 3.24 +0.19 -2.14
Spot Palladium 772.97 -0.03 -0.00 -3.32
(Reporting By Rujun Shen; Editing by Ed Lane)
By Peter LaTonaJanuary 5, 2011
At 4PM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
- Gold price - $1,379.60
- Silver price - $29.30
- Platinum price - $1,732.00
- Palladium price - $777.40
COMMENTARY:Precious metal prices fluctuated in a tight range today, finishing slightly down. This was due to the positive numbers in the stock market, as well as gains on the U.S. dollar. Gold hit three-week lows yesterday but as Matt Zeman , a trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago said
, “you have some investors looking to buy this pullback.” He goes on to say, “gold got overextended as 2010 drew to a close and it has suffered as investors rebalance their portfolios.” This is to be expected when great gains are made because one must keep their portfolio balanced as much as possible, and when one part of your portfolio gains you need to shift those gains to another part of your portfolio that has lost.
Gold spot price finished down 30 cents – Silver spot price was off 24 cents – Platinum spot price was down $13.40 – Palladium price bounced all the way back to up $7.40
By Peter LaTonaJanuary 5, 2011
At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
- Gold price - $1,376.00
- Silver price - $29.32
- Platinum price - $1,722.10
- Palladium price - $757.40
COMMENTARY: Yesterday’s drop in precious metals (commodities in general) was a result of traders taking profits. Gold had gone up $100 in the past two months while silver gained 25%.
Traders were saying that the fact that commodities took their biggest one day plunge in eight weeks is completely warranted and not unexpected. Is this pause a buying opportunity? Jim Cramer thinks so.
Yesterday he stated that gold is no where near its highs. He points out that currently, money managers hold less than 1% of gold in the portfolios and until it rises to 5%, there is a long way to go for gold prices.
For those who may think the European debt crisis is over because it is not frequenting the news of late;
Portugal had to pay almost twice as much to sell its T-Bills as it did in September.Gold spot price is currently off $3.80 – Silver is off 21 cents – Platinum is down $23.30 – Palladium spot price is off $12.70
FOR YOUR WEEKEND READING PLEASURE ... 1/3 'Warren Buffett ignorant that gold is money' January 01 2011 04:10 GMTBy Jim Sinclair
His father, Congressman Howard Buffett, understood gold, but his son, Warren Buffett, does not understand gold.
Maybe this will help Warren. Why is gold the ultimate and timeless money?
Good money must have a number of unique characteristics.
(1) It must be durable, which is why we don’t use wheat or corn.
(2) It must be divisible, which is why we don’t use a Picasso painting or jade statues.
(3) It must be convenient, which is why we don’t use lead or copper or real estate.
(4) It must have value in itself, which is why we don’t use paper.
(5) It must be transportable, which means that large values must be contained in a small area (a gold coin weighing only one ounce can be worth far more than fifteen hundred dollars).
(6) It must have a long history of being accepted as a store of value. Gold was considered valuable as long as 5,000 years ago in the age of the Egyptians.
(7) It cannot "disappear" or be used up in manufacturing as is copper and even silver. Thus, the gold coin that you have in your hand may have been part of Cleopatra’s earrings centuries ago. Almost all the gold that has ever been discovered is still available in one form or another.
(8) It must not be the liability of any sovereign nation, nor should it require governmental law to make it money. For instance Gold requires capital, talent, risk, sweat and courage to recover or to accumulate.
Russell note — It’s possible that gem-quality diamonds can fit all the above characteristics but two. Diamonds are not divisible, nor do they have a long history of being stores of value.
Second note — The Washington-based IMF recently completed its promised sale of gold. It was rumored that the IMF would have to sell its gold on the open market. Not so. The fact is that central banks eagerly gobbled up the IMF’s gold. According to The Financial Times, the IMF sold its gold directly to the central banks of India — 300 tonnes, Sri Lanka — 10 tonnes, Bangladesh — another 10 tonnes, and Mauritius — two tonnes.
And why are these central banks trading paper for gold? After all, it’s the central banks that are creating the fiat paper. Why are they swapping their own beloved products for gold?
The latest anti-gold propaganda centers around the gold exchange traded funds. A full page article in Sunday’s New York Times implied that only with the advent of all the gold ETFs has gold boomed. The article implies that the ETFs (mainly GLD) allowed an ignorant public to buy gold, and that this is the reason for gold’s recent advances. The article did not explain why gold has risen yearly for almost a decade, even before gold ETFs were created. The Times article hinted that gold was in a bubble, and that it was a dangerous bubble. The article emphasized the 20-year gold bear market of 1980 to 1999.
For the first time, more gold is being taken for investment than is used in jewelry. Asians have been gold buyers for years, while Americans have accumulated dollars and are just beginning to learn about gold. Meanwhile, the ignorant media continues to publish "beware" articles about gold. Soros announces that gold is the "biggest bubble" in the area of commodities, but the Soros largest holding is in gold. Sound as though Soros wants to knock the price of gold down so he can buy more on the cheap.
These billionaire investors; they have no consciences. Hmm. maybe that’s why they’re billionaires.
Courtesy: www.jsmineset.com
FOR YOUR WEEKEND READING PLEASURE..... 2/3 Precious Metals to remain hot in 2011 January 01, 2011 at 07:55By Debbie Carlson
(Kitco News) -- The precious metals rally is likely to continue into the first week of 2011 as the fundamental supports for the markets – concerns of Eurozone debt, fiscal and monetary stimulus in the U.S. and currency considerations – will remain steadfast.
While some market watchers warn that the potential for profit-taking in January is possible, many say strong demand under the market will limit significant losses and won’t change the long-term bullish trend.
Friday, February gold on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,421.40 an ounce up 2.96% on the week. On the year, nearby gold futures gained 29.79%.
Comex March silver settled at $30.937 an ounce, a gain of 5.49% on the week. Nearby silver futures gained 83.9% on the year. Although gold made record highs in 2010, silver remains more than 35% below its nominal high of $50 an ounce set in 1980, Gold Core said.
Platinum and palladium futures also saw sharp gains this year. Nearby platinum futures gained 20.6% this year and nearby palladium futures rose 96.48%.
Gold Core said gold’s firmer close for the year is the 10th consecutive year of rising prices. In U.S. dollar terms it rose 28%, while it gained 34.5% in sterling and 38% in euro terms.
“This shows how the price of gold is not rising per se rather fiat currencies are losing purchasing power and being devalued internationally. This increases the attraction of precious metals and hard assets that are finite and cannot be debased as inflation hedges – especially gold and more volatile silver,” they said.
Commodities in general saw a strong rally into the last few weeks of the year, spurred on by hopes of economic strength and thus the need for resources. Metals like copper, silver and the platinum group metals rose sharply – with copper making record highs – bringing gold along for the rally. “The wind is at silver’s back. When there’s good (economic) news, it runs up because of the feeling that demand will be higher. When there’s bad news, people run to it for flight to safety,” said Bob Haberkorn , senior market strategists, Lind-Waldock. Haberkorn said silver’s rise through $30 an ounce was “huge” for the metal’s continuing rally. He said next week’s goal for silver bulls is for the grey metal to start building a base at the $30 area. That will give it a shot to trade up to $32 quickly, he added. Tom Pawlicki, precious metals analyst at MF Global, said he has a neutral-to-positive outlook for gold into the first week of the New Year. He said he expects traders will want to add to winning positions of 2010. Resistance for February gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange is at the high of $1,432.50 an ounce made Dec. 7. Haberkorn said February gold has resistance at $1,420 and sees support at $1,394-95. If prices allow a move back that far, that’s a good level to add to positions, using market stops for protection, he added.
Next week brings one of the more important economic reports, the December unemployment data, due for release Jan. 7. After November’s lower-than-expected jobs growth, analysts are keen to see if that figure was an outlier or the start of a trend. A bearish figure could support gold prices.
One event to watch for in the early weeks of January is commodity index rebalancing which usually takes place in the first two weeks or so of the New Year. The major commodity indexes like the GSCI and the CRB will readjust the weightings of the various commodities in the indexes during that time and traders who follow the indexes will need to adjust. Depending on what those weightings are, it can sometimes lead to temporary caps or floors for individual markets.
Peter Thomas, director of business development at PFG Precious Metals, said don’t rule out the chance of a price pull back in early January simply on profit-taking once traders are back at their desks. There’s been absolutely no resistance,” because of the light trading volumes common around this time, he said. He’s still positive on precious metals, especially as gold and silver act as currencies, rather than shiny objects to stick in a drawer. “The entire game has changed,” he said.
Furthermore, he said, now with the International Monetary Fund finished with its gold sales there aren’t any large apparent sellers to keep a cap on prices. His outlook for gold for 2011 is for it to go sideways to higher, with prices trading between $100 on either side of current values. The physical market has been quiet during the holidays, as is normal, he said, but also partially because of the East Coast snow storm has limited movements to vaults. Product is getting sold, he said, but transfers to vaults will need to wait until roads are cleared.
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com
FOR YOUR WEEKEND READING PLEASURE ............ 3/3
How gold soared from $273 to $1400 in 10 years December 31 2010 12:20 GMT
NEW YORK (Commodity Online): 2010 is now history. 2000-2010 decade is now history. It has been a decade that changed the global investing space. In commodities, it has been a wonderful year, and an outstanding decade. This has been a decade of commodities boom. And the commodity that led the boom was gold.
Gold’s amazing bull run propelled soaring price rises in several base metals, precious metals and agricultural commodities globally.
As the year ends to a close and investors cheer for the new year, gold is set to end the month of December higher which is a bullish omen for 2011 - especially as most commentators had expected profit taking and a year end pull back. Gold is only 1.3% below its recent record nominal high of $1,431/oz.
A further indication of how gold's fundamentals remain sound at the $1400/oz level and may be getting ready for a push to $1500/oz sooner than even many bulls expect is the recently released CFTC data.
Aiding the bullish rally in the yellow metal has been the number of exchange traded funds (ETFs) in gold.
As the year ends to a close, gold price is getting ready to greet the New Year with a historic high of around $1400 per ounce. What is the underlying bullion barometer that is sustaining the ongoing bullish rally in gold price?
Bullion experts say that the strong, current yellow metal price is sustaining thanks to the huge investor demand for gold exchange traded funds (ETFs). “Gold ETFs have been in great demand in 2010. Largely, it is the Gold ETFs that are supporting the strong, historic rally in gold price,” says David Wilson, a bullion analyst.
Here is the year-end price of gold starting with the year 2000, the first up-year of one of the greatest and least appreciated bull markets in history:
2000 — $273
2001 — $279
2002 — $348
2003 — $416
2004 — $438
2005 — $518
2006 — $638
2007 — $838
2008 — $889
2009 — $1118
2010 — $1400
Here is a take on the historic gold bull run by noted global bullion expert Jim Sinclair:
“I’ve been around a long time, and I’ve studied many primary bull markets. And now I want to venture a few of my observations.
In markets, I have never seen a series like the above end with a whimper or a fizzle.
The end or the wind-up of such a series usually arrives with an upside "explosion," as those who have failed to participate in the series finally rush in to join in the apparent endless advance. This is the wild and wooly speculative phase of a great bull market. Big bull markets don’t end with a sigh, they end in exhaustion.
(1) Most great primary bull markets last longer and carry farther than the majority of investors (even the bulls) expect.
(2) A great primary bull market is an expression of something changing in a very fundamental and meaningful way. Following a great bull market, the world is never quite the same.
For the first time, more gold is being taken for investment than is used in jewelry. Asians have been gold buyers for years, while Americans have accumulated dollars and are just beginning to learn about gold.
Meanwhile, the ignorant media continues to publish "beware" articles about gold. Soros announces that gold is the "biggest bubble" in the area of commodities, but the Soros largest holding is in gold. Sound as though Soros wants to knock the price of gold down so he can buy more on the cheap."
Stock up oil , Buy Keppel, Golden Agri, Wilmar
Oil Poised to Rally Past $97 on Bullish Flag Breakout: Technical Analysis
Gold holds firm tone into year-end December 31, 2010 at 18:40(Kitco News) - Comex gold futures are firmer in early morning trade Friday, as the yellow metal is set to end the year with a nearly 30% gain. Action is quiet, with many traders away from their desks this holiday week. But, renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar continues to underpin the bullish sentiment in gold.
February Comex gold last traded up $6.80 at $1,412.70 an ounce. Spot gold last traded up $7.43 at $1411.98.
The U.S. dollar index tumbled to its lowest level since December 14 Friday morning, as the euro/dollar climbed for the third session in a row, also pushing to its highest levels since mid December. Despite better-than-expected U.S. economic data on Thursday on the manufacturing and labor market front, the U.S. dollar failed to maintain any gains. The currency remains depressed by lower Treasury yields this week in the wake of several debt auctions, which drew strong demand.
Also, the U.S. dollar remains weighted down in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing this year, which was a major factor supporting the gold market. Traders and investors turned to gold as a hedge, or alternative currency, amid the U.S. central bank's actions. On-going accommodative policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve in early 2011 is expected to continue to underpin the gold market.
Many investment houses remain bullish on the yellow metal into 2011, with upside targets seen beyond the $1,500 per ounce level in the New Year.
Friday's session, however, will likely remain thinly traded, with little fresh fundamental news expected. The Feb gold contract is just $20 below its all-time high, set on December 7 at $1,432.50.
The London December 31 a.m. gold fix was $1,410.24 versus the previous p.m. fix at $1411.50.
On the economic calendar Friday, the December U.S. ISM NY business index is slated for release. The November data came in at 65.6. Looking ahead to Monday January 3, the December ISM manufacturing report is scheduled for release, following a November manufacturing PMI reading at 56.6.
Technically, February Comex gold futures are consolidating Friday morning, amid a potential bullish flag type of pattern on the daily chart. That is a bullish continuation pattern that would be triggered on a rally through the $1,415 level. Near term, the Feb gold contract is poised to retest the all-time high at $1,432.50. First resistance, ahead of the old high lies at $1,415/1,417. Farther out, the $1,450 round number will act as a psychological magnet for the market.
On the downside, Feb gold finds initial chart support at $1,401.50/1,400. Friday is the fourth session that gold has held above the $1,400 level in a row. If the $1,400 level were to fall, it would open the door for additional corrective declines toward next support at $1,372.60.
March silver futures rallied to fresh 30-year highs this week, as silver attracts buying interest as both an industrial and precious metal. With global GDP forecast around 4.4% in 2011, demand for industrial metals is expected to continue, which will continue to underpin demand for silver. Additionally, silver is viewed as a less expensive option to gold, from a safe-haven investing perspective.
March silver etched a new high on the chart this week at $30.930 an ounce, which will act as initial resistance ahead of the $31.000 target. On the downside, March silver finds support at $30.000/29.985. Additional technical chart support below that zone comes in at $28.810. Courtesy: http://www.kitco.com
