Post Reply
41-60 of 1250
Some players are still thinking they can play both way through out the rally process.
Rosesyrup ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 13:46) Posted:
|
ynnek1267 ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 12:55) Posted:
|
What will force me to sell Wilmar.
Soybean crushmeal and soy oil
http://www.feedtrade.com.cn/soybean/kucun/2019526.html
If all the figure of soybean crush margin are as bad as last year same period like below. Now is positive, last year can be minus few hundred dollar. But Wilmar still manage to breakeven this division last year with their right timing of soybean procured. So only minus 100 to 200 will let me consider to sell Wilmar
http://www.feedtrade.com.cn/soybean/kucun/2011305.html
CPO price
Last year same period, CPO price falling down to 2200 and slowly moved up in Dec till 2500.
http://www.palmoilhq.com/
This year same period, CPO price is above 2600, when approaching to CNY period, CPO will rise high and believe it will touch 2800 and may even touch 3000 since coconut oil supply are reduced badly due to typhoon in philippines and Indonesia and Malaysia government are trying to blend more palm oil with the petrol and diesel in order to reduce their subsidy on petrol.
Sugar business
i won't doubt about the profitable in this division even global sugar price drop further. The 3 biggest sugar consumption countries are Indonesia, India and China. Especially indonesia which Wilmar has strong dominant in this country. The raw material, sugar cane and sugar milling facility is from Australia which has the shipping cost advantage to these 3 countries compare to Brazil and corn sugar from USA.
So overall, no doubt, Wilmar will perform better and their share price will follow so long as US don't be funny again.
I used to have 20 at 3.16 2 months back. Just add on with the profit gain till 50+lots and hitting the limit given by poems cfd at 3.53. So long as price is above 3.53, cash will be generated as my safety margin without selling the share to prevent margin call.
Will keep this 50+ lots till CNY. After that, see how is the CPO price, soybean crush margin and sugar price and Wilmar operational environment. Of course will sell off all if anything go wrong. so far, still alright, wilmar moving to correct direction.
lglg666 ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 11:41) Posted:
|
ynnek1267 ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 11:36) Posted:
|
lglg666 ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 11:25) Posted:
|
ynnek1267 ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 11:03) Posted:
|
Ok. 3.6 again. This time must stay above!!!!
Rosesyrup ( Date: 27-Nov-2013 23:11) Posted:
|
Rosesyrup ( Date: 27-Nov-2013 23:11) Posted:
|
Farmer ( Date: 27-Nov-2013 17:44) Posted:
|
Lol why you come here to spam them every night?
Just leave your " prediction" and if it prove to be accrucate already good enough.
In fact, no need to prove, if really accurate, you will become wealthy quickly.
MetalTrader ( Date: 27-Nov-2013 23:09) Posted:
|
19 Nov Afternoon- Market was at $3.63. I boldy predicted Wilmar will fall below $3.63, from this speculative price, in which shareholders only bought at $3, and anything above $3.15 is a speculative amount. Market closed at $3.62. [I warned that market momentum moving well far $3, and into speculative price of $3.15. The market is bound to suffer a major drop in weeks to come despite naive people insisted on uptrend]
20 Nov- Market fall to $3.52. (The first fall and significant losses of $0.11)
On 20 Nov closing: I predicted that there will be several downfalls beneath $3.52. The downfall will continue with a bigger drop awaiting.
21 Nov- Market fall to $3.48
22 Nov- Market rises to $3.55
23 & 24 Nov- I foresee several tornadoes below the " current speculated price" , & dark clouds awaiting.
The downtrend is gathering significant speculated buyers, before it move downwards significantly.
25 Nov- Market closed $3.59 I saw a very high risk at current level.
26 Nov- Market closed $3.58 (a point lower)
27 Nov- Market closed $3.55 (3 point lower)
Wilmar Financial Data
According to Bloomberg, Current Price/Book 1.2476
26 Sep- Term Loan increased from US1.5 Billion to US2.065 Billion + Interests
11 Jul- Term Loan of US1.5 Billion
(Within 2 months - Debts increased another US 565 Millions + Interests!!!)
What do you think Wilmar is worth?
Updates of Prediction (Realized)
1) Wilmar (Track Record)
19 Nov Afternoon- Market was at $3.63. I boldy predicted Wilmar
will fall below $3.63, from this speculative price, in which
shareholders only bought at $3, and anything above $3.15 is a speculative amount. Market
closed at $3.62.
[I warned that market momentum moving well far $3, and into speculative price
of $3.15. The market is bound to suffer a major drop in weeks to come despite
naive people insisted on uptrend]
20 Nov- Market fall to
$3.52. (The
first fall and significant losses of $0.11)
On 20 Nov closing: I predicted that there will be
several downfalls beneath
$3.52. The
downfall will continue with a bigger drop awaiting.
21 Nov- Market fall to
$3.48
22 Nov- Market rises to
$3.55
23 & 24 Nov- I foresee several tornadoes below
the " current speculated price" , & dark clouds awaiting.
The
downtrend is gathering significant speculated buyers, before it move downwards
significantly.
25 Nov- Market closed $3.59
I saw a very high risk at current
level.
26 Nov- Market closed $3.58
(a point lower)
27 Nov- Market closed $3.55
(3 point lower)
2) Swiber (Track Record)
7 Nov : Market closed 0.68. I predicted a fall to 0.64
within 1-2 week, while most claimed uptrend.
8 Nov: Market closed
0.665.
9 Nov: I predict Swiber will fall to 0.64
within 4 days (14 Nov).
11 Nov: Market closed
0.67
12 Nov: Market closed
0.67
13 Nov: Market closed
0.655
14 Nov: Market falls to
0.635, and closed at 0.645.
Ended Prediction on 14 Nov
On 16 Nov-
Swiber closed at 0.64.
I forecast Du Shen forecast is half correct.
On 18 Nov-
Swiber closed at 0.64. (without
dropping nor extending gain)
On 18 Nov night- I asked DuShen to carry on with his forecast
On 19 Nov- Market closed lower
at 0.635
On 20 Nov- Market closed lower
at 0.63
On 21 Nov- Market closed lower
at 0.625
Ended Prediction on 21 Nov
Revived Prediction (named Dragon of Fury)
because of ynnek1267,
Du_shen & Silvermansac' s arrogant
26 Nov- market closed at 0.645.
27 Nov before market open- I
forecast an extended short gain of 0.64-0.65. [Swiber
is
mainly taking an extended short term gain, & downside trend will begins]
27 Nov-
Market closed at 0.635. (Market extended short term gain as predicted to 0.65 high, &
falls to 0.635)
3) Midas (Track Record)
19 Nov night- I
predicted Midas of $0.50 is an over-priced stock. Its run up from $0.35 to
$0.50 within a year is not sustainable, as its IPO only valued at $0.115. Given
the speculators pushed to the limit of $0.50, downtrend
is to be expected.
20 Nov- I
warned that 941k of Midas is a
poor support. The value of Midas is overly aggregated &
will fall once support
is gone.
21 Nov night- Though
there is a bit volume upped for Midas, but it
will be a falling trend in due time.
As its value is of speculative level.
Updates: From 19 Nov - 21 Nov, market closed at $0.50
continuously for 3 days
without any gains.
22 Nov - Midas falls to $0.495 (The 1st fall, as predicted
24 Nov - I foresee that the downtrend will
continue.
25 Nov - Market closed at $0.495 continuously
for 6 days without any gains
26 Nov - Market closed at $0.495
27 Nov - Market closed at $0.495 continuously for 8 days without any
gains
4) Noble Group (Track Record)
2 Nov, 3, Nov:
I predicted a rise when Noble Group was falling till from a high 1.03 to
0.99.
Others claimed will drop further & fake break point. [I
advocate a rise, despite most advocate a further fall]
5 Nov: I predicted a rise. Market closed at
1.045 from 0.99.
6 Nov: I still
predicted a rise. Market closed at
1.55
7 Nov: I predicted a new point hit, while people are cautious. Market
closed at 1.065.
8 Nov: Market closed at
1.045, down
from 1.065. The first fall, which i on 7 Nov predicted a favorable selling
price from 1.065. After which 8 Nov afternoon will be hard to sell.
11 Nov & 12 Nov: I warned of a fall with 13 Nov a
shock going to happen despite many people are being too complacency & on
high side. Market closed at 1.08.
13 Nov: I predicted a shock last week, highlighting a
[Big Fall] on 11 Nov. Market experienced the biggest fall from 1.08
to 1.015, closed at 1.05.
There will be no further prediction of Noble Group.
Due to time-consuming factor, i will not predict for months on day-to-day
basis.
The Beginning of Another Prediction (upon Du Shen Query)
18 Nov night (Noble closed 1.08 after extending gains for a few days)- I boldly
predicted Noble Group's fall will be just a matter of time, a matter of months
to come.
19 Nov- Market closed down to 1.065
from 1.08 (The first fall after few days
continuous gain)
20 Nov- Market closed at 1.08.
20 Nov closing: I predicted the range will fall within $1.075 and $1.09. As the
fall is still far from months ahead.
21 Nov closing: Market closed at 1.08.
(Market hit a low $1.07 & high of $1.09)
There will be no further prediction of Noble Group.. Enjoy
MetalTrader ( Date: 27-Nov-2013 00:53) Posted:
|
http://www.feedtrade.com.cn/soybean/kucun/2019526.html
Still positive
http://www.palmoilhq.com/crude-palm-oil-cpo-futures/
Still above 2600
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-05/sugar-surplus-shrinks-on-quickening-demand-in-china-to-indonesia.html
Still catching the biggest market.
Wilmar is on the rise!!!