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These few days... steadily climb up to this level... it should be hitting 0.40 soon,,, slight pull back, should go in and BANK on it.. and will see BIG returns..
HUAT ARHhhhhhh...
CAN ANYONE ADVISE this one can buy now? thanks so much.
UOBKH recommends BUY with Target Price of $0.385
What’s New
• We visited Consciencefood’s (CSF) instant noodle plant in Medan,
Indonesia and here are our key takeaways.
• New production line on track for completion by 1Q11. As guided in
its 3Q10 results, CSF’s production line for high fibre instant cup noodles
is on track for completion in Feb 11. A production line was also
upgraded to be more efficient and have a higher capacity. Utilisation
levels based on estimated 2010 production volumes will drop from 64%
to 55% post4upgrade/expansion.
• Jakarta plant targeted to come onstream in 4Q11. On its planned
establishment of a manufacturing plant in Jarkata, management
indicated it could be operational by 4Q11.
• Margins could come under pressure from higher wheat prices.
Wheat prices have risen 65% from end4June to date and could impact
margins given wheat flour is a key raw material. However, we believe
the company will be able to pass on most of the price increases to its
customers as instant noodles are a staple food in Indonesia. We have
factored into our earnings model slightly lower gross margins of 29.5%
for its instant noodles segment from 30% previously.
Stock Impact
• Growth drivers for 2011 in place, full impact of Jakarta plant to be
felt only in 2012. We believe CSF will be able to achieve double4digit
volume growth in 2011, with profit growth moderated somewhat by
pressures from higher wheat flour prices. For 2012, we expect impact to
earnings to come from a mix of volume growth and substitution of
existing OEM arrangements resulting in margin expansion.
• Potential re-rating as capacity comes onstream. The market should
start taking notice of Consciencefood following its capacity expansion
and earnings growth in 2011. We note the company remains in a net
cash position post4IPO and has significant capacity for expansion. The
stock is trading at attractive valuations and will likely see a re4rating as
operations grow. In our view, CSF remains an excellent proxy to
Indonesia’s consumers and its emerging middle class.
Earnings Revision/Risks
• We lower our 2011 earnings by 5.6% given the impact of higher wheat
flour prices. Despite this, core earnings growth is expected to remain
strong at 18.5% yoy for 2011.
• Major risks include:
a) Execution risks for new Jakarta factory,
b) Disruptions to operations or supply of raw materials, and
c) Further rise in wheat flour prices.
Valuation/Recommendation
• Maintain BUY. We maintain BUY and raise our target price to S$0.385
from S$0.365 as we roll forward our valuations to 2011. Our valuation is
based on a 9x PE on 2011F core earnings and a 40% discount to
recently4listed Indofood CBP’s (ICBP IJ) PE of 16x. Our target price
implies a PEG of 0.5x.
Share Price Catalysts
• Completion of new factory in Jakarta area.
• Deployment of cash hoard in new investments/acquisition
You have a nice day
cover back at 26.5! Good and easy $. Will short somemore if got chance as this bugger is still above IPO px!
tchoonw ( Date: 10-Aug-2010 12:59) Posted:
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better drop some more so that i can cover back cheap cheap later! :)
dun think can substain...the pros are trying to catch the longists...
noobnoob ( Date: 06-Aug-2010 09:35) Posted:
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better cover... think morning was opened by retailers.... the pros are in...
tchoonw ( Date: 06-Aug-2010 09:27) Posted:
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cfd...this counter is way above ipo px and selling is strong now...
noobnoob ( Date: 06-Aug-2010 09:25) Posted:
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just ipo one also can short ar... which platform? or naked short?
tchoonw ( Date: 06-Aug-2010 09:20) Posted:
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tink better dont 'shock' .
shorted at 29.5...