Courage Marine   

Courage Marine--- A courageous play

rogue_trader Senior	Posted: 08-Jun-2006 13:21
x 2 x 0	I predict CM will go up during Oct - Nov, but go up from what pricing must see how many supporters for this counter. If look from another side of view, can treat this counter as an instrument to park spare cash for the dividends. CM got few ships only, so profits or losses minimum. But management team over at CM quite good (as of now). And if there a fair level of support, my prediction for this counter in 1 year time from now should be around $0.24. No vested interest as currently suffering from baby-sitter syndrome.
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I still remembered when one forumeer told me for CM to go to 24 cents in a year time it will be a dream or unless the DBI Index moved like rubber index. At last dream came true for that forumeer.

 

Looks like its beginning to move.

 

Its third quarter to September net profit surged 135% yoy to US$6.02 mln on higher bulk freight rates and utilization rates, along with rigid cost controls.



"Our tight cost control measures helped to mitigate higher bunker fuel costs, depreciation expenses, port charges and other direct expenses resulting from operating an expanded fleet and from higher fuel prices," the company said in its financial statement.



The group's revenue grew 82% yoy to US$13.85 mln as dry bulk freight rates and tonnage capacity increased. Courage Marine's fleet tonnage expanded by 33% to 455,000 dead weight tons (dwt) since its listing in October last year.



"Market conditions have generally been improving since the first quarter and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has recovered from 2,500 level to 4,000 currently," Courage Marine said.



"The Group will continue to maintain its cost structure and focus on keeping its fleet well deployed. As such we expect the group's overall prospects for this year to be comparable to that of 2005," it added. The company is proposing a tax-exempt interim dividend of US$0.0047 per share for the year to December.

 

result is gd

 

Continued high rate of utilisation of an expanded fleet helped to mitigate the impact of weaker freight rates in 1H06. Gross profit margin declined to 52% in 1H06 from 65% in 1H05. This was due to a 15% rise in cost of sales, due to higher bunker cost, depreciation charges and repair and maintenance charges. It secured more time charters which eased the full impact of higher bunker costs because of the fuel adjustment clause in contracts.



Surging China demand for steel, iron ore, cement and coal will continue. This is complimented by rising consumption of imported coal by Japan, Korea and Taiwan in response to higher economic growth and concerns over the safety of nuclear powered generators. The resultant growth in seaborne trade of raw materials will continue.



PS has revised its target price upwards to $0.195. 2Q06 results are expected to be better sequentially because of exceptionally strong freight rates. FY06 net profit is estimated to be US$23.5m. If it gives out dividends of 1.1 US cents, yield is quite attractive at 10.4%.



Looks like it'll break the $0.175 resistance.

 

Seem to do better than others..Q3 will be challenging...

 

CM reported HY 06 results today.

EPS......2Q US cts 0.75,  HY.....US cts 1.25

This is better than my forecast...well done.!!!!

 

Freight rate for Q2 improved when compared to Q1 but result showed otherwise..forecasting the performance seemed more complicated now.

 

Bullrun,

Not only STX.....but also Samudera....both shipping cos profit plunge.

Looks like the high oil price and lower freight demands will certainly affect all other shipping comapanies like NOL and CM.

 

STX result is out, profit plunged!! I wonder if courage can do any better.

 

I think the Q2 report will be out soon. Lets just wait and see the report before making any justifications about the future. We might be in for some surprises. ;)

 

I bought the counter at IPO price.  Rather than sitting on the losses, and hoping for the beter, I average it and exit with a gain.

My opinion:  Get out the stock that is unpredictable. Only thing once has is HOPE.   Use your cash and invest in something that that has a clearer future a brighter prospect. In something that you know will generate positive return.  

Esp right now - many REIT are moving upwards like Allcro was at 0.80, MMP @ .90. But you juz look at today's prices.

Juz an opinion.

 

Any idea when CM going to announce its 2Q result?

 

Well the rate might rise. But i do hope the crisis will end because its not beneficial to the company in the long run. However, I think the strong fundamentals of the company shall see them thru.

 

I think shipper may be able to demand a much higher rate for the ME route since the risk is higher now!

 

With the escalating problem n the ME,  and with shippers being hit with war risk insurance, I wonder how this will affect CM's recently initiated effort in breaking into the ME market. 

 

furthermore with such low volume... keep out for those that wanna enter. dun be deceive by the "buying" volume.

 

if it is me, i would have sold this counter at 0.175 where it is a very clear ceiling it cant break thru, futhermore with such a bad market sentiment. but nevermind. there is still chance to clear at 16.5

 

Bullrun,

Right now, CM seems to be holding at 17cts level.

Buyers - 16.5 cts - 155 lots, 16.0cts - 380lots, 15.5cts - 150lots.

Sellers - 17.0cts  - 133lots, 17.5cts - 490lots and 18.0cts - 150lots..

Looks like support @ 16.0 cts and resistance @ 17.5cts for today.

 

shplayer senior....do u think CM price will drop further?