Bukit Sembawang    Last:3.62    +0.01

BukitSem

Expect good results FYE 31March..after warrants cease trading on * April mother shares shd soar again

 

Stay > $4.10 good sign before warrants expire ...expect excellent results for FYE Mar 31 2011

 

Bukit Sembawang Estates

Result note - En route to record profits - by Tan Siew Ling / Donald Chua

(BS SP / BSES.SI, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, S$4.66 - Tgt. S$5.86, Property)

3Q11 core net profit of S$95.8m accounts for 79% of our FY11 estimate and 82% of the Street's. 9M11 core net profit of S$138m forms 114% of our forecast. The outperformance was due to good take-up of Paterson Suites during the quarter. We adjust our FY11-13 core EPS estimates by +37%/-20% on changes to our recognition schedule. Our target price, however, stays at S$5.86, still pegged at a 30% discount to RNAV. We remain positive on its vast cheap landed land bank (54% of GAV), which we believe will be more sheltered from cooling measures due to scarcity and lower exposure to speculation. Coupled with the continued monetisation of Paterson Suites and BS's current 44% valuation discount to RNAV, maintain Outperform, with catalysts expected from improved take-up and launches.

# Full-report including important disclosures:   [ PDF ]

starlene      ( Date: 24-Jan-2011 12:08) Posted: Its warrants expire 8April...ex price $2.30...mother share $4.80...warrant rice $2.50 add another $2,30....likley may push further to make exercising into mother shares more attractive

 

Its warrants expire 8April...ex price $2.30...mother share $4.80...warrant rice $2.50 add another $2,30....likley may push further to make exercising into mother shares more attractive

 

Despite the latest anti-speculation measures announced on  JAN 13 BUKIT SEMBAWANG will be least affected as company concentrates on high end properties...

 

 

 

C OMPANY UPDATE 10 January 2011 OUTPERFORM Upgraded Bukit Sembawang Estates S$4.77 @09/01/11 Value from landed landbank Target: S$5.86 Property Development SINGAPORE BS SP / BSES.SI Tan Siew Ling - + (65) 6210 8698 – siewling.tan@cimb.com / Donald Chua +(65) 6210 8606 – donald.chua@cimb.com • Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform. Higher landed property prices, improved sales at Paterson Suites and an official launch of The Vermont prompt us to raise our ASP assumptions. We adjust our FY11-13 EPS estimates by +39%/- 51% on higher ASPs for BS’s landed land bank and changes to our recognition schedule. Our target price accordingly climbs to S$5.86 from S$4.80, still pegged at a 30% discount to RNAV (higher estimate of S$8.38 from S$6.85 previously). While possible government intervention still poses a risk for its mass-market land bank, we believe that landed properties are more sheltered due to their scarcity and lower exposure to property speculation. We also see positives from BS’s vast cheap land bank, improved gearing with sales from Paterson Suites and deep 43% discount to RNAV, making it the cheapest developer under our coverage. We upgrade the stock to Outperform, expecting catalysts from higher ASPs and new launches. • Value from landed land bank. With prices on landed properties hitting new highs and ASPs of S$1,000psf for sold units from Luxus Hills, we find our previous assumptions too conservative and have raised our ASPs to S$950 psf for Luxus Hills. With more than 50% of its GAV coming from landed properties, we believe BS will benefit from higher landed property prices. • Fears allayed. Delayed launches and slow project monetisation had been among our concerns previously. BS has allayed these fears with improved sales from Paterson Suites and an official launch of The Vermont over the past weekend. Financial summary FYE Mar 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F Revenue (S$ m) 62.6 66.0 300.3 394.7 631.5 EBITDA (S$ m) 28.4 18.7 147.7 172.9 223.5 EBITDA margins (%) 45.4% 28.3% 49.2% 43.8% 35.4% Pretax profit (S$ m) (46.6) 54.8 147.7 175.4 229.3 Net profit (S$ m) (48.4) 52.9 121.1 143.8 188.0 EPS (S cts) (44.8) 22.7 50.6 60.1 78.5 EPS growth (%) (166.5%) 150.6% 122.8% 18.7% 30.7% P/E (x) nm 21.0 9.4 7.9 6.1 Core EPS (S cts) 11.9 6.7 50.6 60.1 78.5 Core EPS growth (%) (50.9%) (43.8%) 655.9% 18.7% 30.7% Core P/E (x) 40.1 71.3 9.4 7.9 6.1 Gross DPS (S cts) 2.5 5.1 19.0 22.5 29.4 Dividend yield (%) 0.5% 1.1% 4.0% 4.7% 6.2% P/BV (x) 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 ROE (%) (10.8%) 9.0% 14.9% 15.9% 18.4% Net gearing (%) 188.5% 80.6% 39.4% 24.3% 11.6% P/FCFE (x) 2.6 (2.8) 5.1 4.6 3.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 45.1 92.9 10.0 7.9 5.7 % change in EPS estimates +38.6% -51.3% -3.2% CIMB/Consensus (x) 1.20 0.77 1.44 Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg Price chart Market capitalisation & share price info Market cap S$1,167m/US$902m Share price perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M 12-mth price range S$5.13/S$4.51 Relative 1.0 (3.9) (16.9) 3-mth avg daily volume 0.0m Absolute 2.8 (0.6) (7.0) # of shares (m) 245 Major shareholders % held Est. free float (%) 41.0 Lee-related entities 32.4 Conv. secs (m) N/A Conv. price ( ) N/A 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 J a n-10 J un-10 Nov-10 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 Volume 100k (R.H.S ca le ) Bukit S emba wang Es ta te s Source: Bloomberg Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg [ 2 ] Fears allayed with improved non-landed sales Management inactivity, delayed launches and slow monetisation of properties were our previous concerns on the stock. Improved sales at Luxus Hills and Paterson Suites, coupled with positive price trends for landed properties, have prompted us to upgrade our assumptions and the stock. Fears allayed with sales from Paterson Suites. Despite a lack of an official launch, BS has been able to monetise this high-end property with 41 units sold in November. Of these, 20 were reportedly sold to institutional fund Real Estate Capital Partners (ReCap) at S$2,700 psf on average, a slight discount to what the units would have commanded separately. Our ground checks suggest that sales have been coming through with a pick-up in interest in luxurious homes in recent months, backed by a return of foreign demand, a strong economy and with prices still much below the peak. These helped to assuage our fears of delays on launch or sales. At our estimated ASP of S$2,700 psf, we project a fat profit margin and total undiscounted net profit of 52% and S$279m respectively, thanks to the low land cost of below S$700 psf. Having achieved its temporary occupation permit last quarter, we expect the bulk of profit from Paterson Suites to be recognised in the next two quarters alongside continued sales, with presale proceeds expected to lower its net gearing to an estimated 0.39x from 0.67x as at end-2QFY11. Official launch of The Vermont. With sales from Paterson Suites nearing completion and a return of interest in luxury properties, BS officially launched The Vermont at Peck Hay Road in Singapore and Indonesia over the weekend. We visited the showflat on Saturday and saw a good turnout. Pricing was S$2,200-2,600 psf, rather competitive against secondary sales for new projects like Cairnhill Residences and Vida at S$2,200 psf and S$2,400 psf respectively. Both are in the vicinity. With its lower psf pricing, 4- bedroom units were popular among foreign and local investors. One-bedroom units also attracted buyers due to their lower absolute price quantum. Inclusive of the 20% sales in Nov 10, the project was more than 50% sold on the day of our visit. In view of the better achieved pricing, we now raise our ASP to S$2,000 psf from S$1,800 psf. Value from landed land bank Prices on landed properties hitting new highs. Buoyed by an improving economy and favourable credit conditions, housing prices have continued to head higher. This is particularly so for landed properties where prices have surpassed previous peaks. While risks of government intervention remain for the mass market, we believe that landed properties could be more sheltered in view of their scarcity and lower speculation with tighter ownership restrictions. We thus expect price trends to remain sustainable, which should prove favourable for BS, a key proxy for landed properties with more than 50% of its GAV from landed properties. Higher ASP assumptions for Luxus Hills. While we previously projected an ASP of S$565 psf for BS’s landed properties, we now find our assumptions a tad too conservative. With the uptrend in housing prices in District 28 and positive data-points from secondary sales for comparable projects like Mimosa Terrace (S$1,100 psf, freehold), such price trends could provide to be sustainable for future phases of Luxus Hills. We have thus raised our ASPs for Luxus Hills to S$950 psf from S$565 psf. This implies a fat profit margin of 65%, thanks to the low land cost of below S$80 psf for the legacy land plot. With the ability to accommodate 944 units, we expect the plot to provide sustainable sales for BS up until 2020, assuming BS’s targeted release of nearly 100 units each year for the site. We also lift ASPs for BS’s nearby land plots, namely Lots 12949A (167 units), 12949A (2) (150 units), 9943W (65 units), from S$565 psf to S$800 psf, a discount to our assumed price for Luxus Hills to factor in their higher uncertainties. With substantial inventory to be cleared, we have assumed that the earliest monetisation of these sites will begin in 2017. [ 3 ] Figure 1: Landed property prices hitting new highs PPI – landed vs. non-landed Dwindling supplies of landed properties 50 100 150 200 250 1990Q1 1991Q4 1993Q3 1995Q2 1997Q1 1998Q4 2000Q3 2002Q2 2004Q1 2005Q4 2007Q3 2009Q2 PPI PPI - Landed PPI - Non-landed 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Landed pty supply (LHS) - Units 30% % of Pte pty in pipeline (RHS) Source: Company, CIMB Research Figure 2: Median prices in District 28 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1995Q1 1997Q1 1999Q1 2001Q1 2003Q1 2005Q1 2007Q1 2009Q1 Median price (S$'psf) Terrace House Condominium Source: URA Realis, CIMB Research Watercove Ville and Fairways could be next. We believe that BS could build on the success of Luxus Hills to launch Watercove Ville, a landed project along Sembawang Road. Construction has begun and we believe that a launch could take place this year. BS’s advantage once again comes from its low land cost of below S$80 psf for this freehold legacy land, a sharp contrast to the S$550 psf on average paid by successful bidders of 14 99-year leasehold land parcels for landed housing development under “Sembawang Greenvale Phase 3” in October last year. New sales of freehold landed properties in the district were transacted at nearly S$1,100 psf last year while recent resales of nearby Straits Garden changed hands at about S$1,100 psf. Coupled with the lure of a seafront view, we believe Watercove Ville will be another highly-soughtafter project. We raise ASPs for this project to S$800 psf, a slight discount to achieved prices for landed properties in the district. The completion of the integrated resort at Sentosa and successful launches of projects like Reflections at Keppel Bay (S$1,800 psf) and The Interlace (S$1,000 psf) could meanwhile spur BS to launch Fairways Condo (non-landed) in 2011. Nonetheless, with the land acquired at S$244m (S$751 psf ppr) during the peak in 2007, margins are expected to be finer and we expect BS to be more opportunistic in launching this project in accordance with property sentiment. [ 4 ] Figure 3: Ample cheap land Project % Held Tenure Location Est ASP (S$ psf) GFA (sf) No. of units % sold Land cost (S$psf) Luxus Hills - Lot 9425C 100% 999 Yio Chu Kang Rd/AMK Ave 5/Seletar Rd 950 1,974,890 944 21% 75 Landed housing – Lot 12949A 100% 999 Nim Rd/AMK Ave 5/Lilac Park/CTE 800 487,234 167 0% 75 Landed housing – Lot 12949A (2) 100% 999 Nim Rd/AMK Ave 5/Lilac Park/CTE 800 430,304 150 0% 75 Landed housing – Lot 9934W 100% FH Nim Rd/AMK Ave 5/CTE 800 140,012 65 0% 75 Watercove Ville (Landed) 100% FH Sembawang Rd/Kg Wak Hassan 800 202,180 80 0% 75 Paterson suites 100% FH Paterson Road 2,700 199,823 102 63% 650 Paterson Phase Two 100% FH Paterson Road 2,700 149,803 123 0% 695 The Verdure 100% FH Holland Road 1,400 101,768 75 100% 481 St. Thomas Walk 100% FH St. Thomas Walk 2,000 291,132 186 0% 880 The Vermont 100% FH Peck Hay Road 2,000 203,342 158 24% 770 Fairways Condo 100% FH Telok Blangah 1,350 325,122 250 0% 751 Source: Company, CIMB Research Figure 4: Breakdown of GAV Landed vs. non-landed By project Landed 54% Non-Landed 46% Landed 54% Paterson Suites & Paterson Two 19% St. Thomas Walk 11% The Vermont 7% Fairway s Condo 7% The Verdure 2% Source: Company, CIMB Research Valuation and recommendation Value from landed land bank; upgrade to Outperform from Underperform. We adjust our FY11-13 EPS estimates by +39%/-51% on higher ASPs for BS’s landed land bank and changes to our recognition schedule. With landed properties accounting for more than 50% of its GAV, we believe BS is poised to benefit from higher landed property prices. Though government intervention could present risks for its massmarket land bank, we believe that landed properties would be more sheltered. We also see the need to weigh such risks against BS’s vast cheap land bank in an environment of depleting land banks and strong balance sheets among developers which could heighten competition for sites. The stock is also trading at a deep 43% discount to RNAV, making it the cheapest developer under our coverage. We upgrade it to Outperform, expecting catalysts from higher ASPs and new launches. Figure 5: RNAV RNAV Calculation CY11 Tenure Sector NLA (sf)/ Stake Exp yield RNAV Rms/Lots (S$m) Investment Properties 7th Storey Tong Building FH O 6,865 100% 5.0% 7 Development GDV 2,459 AFS financial assets and others 41 Gross RNAV 2,507 Less: FY11 net debt (incl any off b/s debt) (337) RNAV 2,170 Fully-diluted share base, post rights issue and warrants (m) 259 RNAV per share (S$) 8.38 Target Price Disc 30% 5.86 Source: Company, CIMB Research [ 5 ] Figure 6: Regional comparison Target P/BV Div RNAV Disc/ BB Price price Mkt cap (x) yield (%) Prem. To ticker Recom. (Local) (Local) (US$ m) CY2011 CY2012 CY2011 CY2011 CY2011 RNAV Allgreen AG SP U 1 .19 1 .25 1 ,462 7 .7 7 .6 0 .7 4 .8 1.67 -29% Bukit Sembawang BS SP O 4 .77 5 .86 902 7 .5 5 .8 1 .1 5 .0 8.38 -43% CapitaLand CAPL SP N 3.88 4 .04 12,780 19.4 1 5.7 1.1 0 .9 4.19 -7% CMA CMA SP U 1.89 2 .15 5 ,672 27.7 3 0.2 1.2 0 .5 2.15 -12% City Devt CIT SP U 1 2.74 12.78 8 ,952 17.6 1 7.0 1.7 0 .9 12.78 0% F&N FNN SP N 6.51 6 .91 7 ,065 15.1 1 2.9 1.4 3 .7 6.91 -6% Ho Bee HOBEE SP O 1.61 2 .07 917 7 .6 1 0.7 0.8 1 .7 2.76 -42% Keppel Land KPLD SP O 4.80 5 .88 5 ,379 18.9 1 5.7 1.7 2 .0 5.88 -18% OUE OUE SP O 3.38 4 .14 2 ,564 20.7 1 5.6 1.4 2 .4 4.60 -26% Singland SL SP O 7 .53 9 .24 2 ,400 18.4 1 6.7 0.8 3 .0 10.87 -31% UOL UOL SP N 4.87 4 .94 2 ,926 14.5 1 4.2 0.8 1 .7 5.82 -16% Wheelock WP SP O 1 .96 2 .37 1 ,812 6 .9 1 2.1 0.8 5 .8 2.63 -25% Wing Tai WINGT SP O 1.78 2 .19 1 ,092 6 .7 8 .6 0 .7 3 .0 2.57 -31% Yanlord YLLG SP N 1.72 1 .83 2 ,584 10.7 9.1 1 .1 1 .0 2.81 -39% Simple average 14.2 1 3.7 1.1 2 .6 -23% Hong Kong/China Agile 3383 HK N 1 3.34 9 .04 5 ,959 12.2 1 0.9 2.3 1 .4 15.1 -11% CC Land 1224 HK N 3.17 3 .15 1 ,044 23.1 2 0.0 0.6 0 .9 6 .3 -50% China Overseas Land 688 HK O 1 5.50 19.06 16,295 13.4 1 2.1 2.3 1 .9 21.2 -27% R&F 2777 HK N 12.34 11.05 5 ,115 7 .8 7 .2 1 .5 3 .4 18.4 -33% Shimao Property 813 HK O 1 3.30 17.10 6 ,069 8 .6 7 .8 1 .5 2 .9 24.4 -46% Sino-Ocean 3377 HK N 5 .45 6 .03 3 ,953 10.2 7.7 1 .1 2 .2 11.0 -50% Simple average 12.5 1 0.9 1.6 2 .1 -36% Indonesia Alam Sutera ASRI IJ O 2 95.00 3 55.00 584 12.0 1 0.5 2.0 1 .6 5 84.8 -50% Bakrieland ELTY IJ U 1 56.00 1 70.00 690 42.7 3 3.4 0.8 - 3 85.4 -60% BSD BSDE IJ N 880.00 9 00.00 1 ,706 19.9 1 4.8 2.2 0 .7 1 ,515.4 -42% Ciputra CTRA IJ O 3 50.00 5 10.00 588 15.7 9.8 1 .0 - 6 04.4 -42% Summarecon SMRA IJ O 1 ,040.00 1 ,375.00 792 16.8 1 2.2 2.8 0 .8 1 ,873.6 -44% Simple average 21.4 1 6.2 1.8 0 .6 -48% Malaysia E&O EAST MK O 1.29 1 .63 350 17.4 1 4.9 0.9 3 .1 2 .8 -54% KLCC Property KLCC MK U 3.40 3 .03 1 ,034 15.6 1 3.8 0.6 4 .4 5 .2 -35% Mah Sing MSGB MK O 2.04 2 .35 552 11.4 9.1 1 .7 4 .4 2 .2 -7% SP Setia SPSB MK O 6.45 6 .88 2 ,136 25.8 2 0.9 2.8 3 .5 5 .8 12% Simple average 17.5 1 4.7 1.5 3 .8 4 .0 -21% Thailand Asian Property AP TB O 6.20 8 .70 479 7 .1 6 .4 1 .4 6 .4 - NA LPN LPN TB O 8.60 14.60 418 6 .5 5 .6 1 .8 8 .2 - NA Land And Houses LH TB U 6.25 6 .80 2 ,065 26.5 2 4.5 2.2 5 .1 - NA Pruksa Real Estate PS TB O 1 8.80 36.90 1 ,367 8 .8 7 .1 2 .2 4 .1 - NA Quality Houses QH TB N 2.24 2 .53 626 13.2 1 2.1 1.3 5 .7 - NA SPALI SPALI TB O 1 0.50 18.50 594 5 .9 5 .1 1 .6 7 .2 - NA Simple average 11.3 1 0.2 1.7 6 .1 - P/E (x) Core Source: Company, CIMB Research [ 6 ] Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS KEY RATIOS (S$ m, FYE Mar) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F (FYE Mar) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F Revenue 63 66 300 395 632 Revenue growth (%) (17.2) 5.4 355.3 31.4 60.0 Operating expenses (34) (47) (153) (222) (408) EBITDA growth (%) (10.4) (34.4) 691.9 17.0 29.3 EBITDA 28 19 148 173 224 Pretax margins (%) (74.5) 83.1 49.2 44.4 36.3 Depreciation & amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit margins (%) (77.3) 80.2 40.3 36.4 29.8 EBIT 28 18 147 173 223 Interest cover (x) 1.8 4.9 51.9 70.9 82.1 Net interest & invt income (14) (2) 0 3 6 Effective tax rates (%) N/A 3.5 18.0 18.0 18.0 Associates’ contribution 0 0 0 0 0 Net dividend payout (%) N/A 18.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 Exceptional items (61) 39 0 0 0 Debtors turnover (days) 103.1 41.9 22.1 35.2 32.5 Others 0 0 0 0 0 Stock turnover (days) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pretax profit (47) 55 148 175 229 Creditors turnover (days) 114.2 132.2 66.9 83.0 73.1 Tax (2) (2) (27) (32) (41) Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit (48) 53 121 144 188 Adj. wt. shares (m) 108 233 239 239 239 Unadj. year-end shares (m) 108 239 239 239 239 BALANCE SHEET KEY DRIVERS (S$ m, end Mar) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F (FYE Mar) 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F Fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 Sales of res prop (S$m) 66 300 395 632 Intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 Margin - Property development (%) 25.6% 49.2% 44.4% 36.3% Other long-term assets 31 46 26 26 26 Total non-current assets 31 46 26 26 26 Cash and equivalents 144 77 261 436 634 Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 Trade debtors 12 3 33 43 69 Other current assets 1,155 1,370 1,228 1,232 1,302 Total current assets 1,311 1,451 1,521 1,712 2,005 Trade creditors 20 28 82 97 156 Short-term borrowings 911 127 109 122 138 Other current liabilities 5 1 6 8 12 Total current liabilities 936 156 197 226 306 Long-term borrowings 0 571 489 547 622 Other long-term liabilities 0 2 8 11 17 Total long-term liabilities 0 572 497 557 639 Shareholders’ funds 407 769 854 954 1,086 Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 NTA/share (S$) 1.88 3.21 3.57 3.99 4.54 CASH FLOW 12M - FORWARD FD CORE P/E (X) (S$ m, FYE Mar) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F Pretax profit (47) 55 148 175 229 Depreciation & non–cash adj. 0 0 0 0 0 Working capital changes (23) (203) 172 2 (33) Cash tax paid (5) 0 0 0 0 Others 62 (43) 0 (3) (6) Cash flow from operations (13) (191) 320 174 191 Capex 0 0 0 0 0 Net investments & sale of FA 2 2 3 5 9 Others 0 0 0 0 0 Cash flow from investing 2 1 3 5 8 Debt raised/(repaid) 208 (213) (100) 70 92 Equity raised/(repaid) 0 228 0 0 0 Dividends paid (2) (10) (36) (43) (56) Cash interest & others (82) 118 (3) (31) (37) Cash flow from financing 124 123 (139) (3) (1) Change in cash 114 (67) 184 176 198 Change in net cash/(debt) (95) 146 283 106 106 Ending net cash/(debt) (766) (620) (337) (232) (126) 8.0 13.0 18.0 23.0 28.0 33.0 38.0 43.0 48.0 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg [ 7 ] DISCLAIMER This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that he is entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions set forth below and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein (including the “Restrictions on Distributions” set out below). Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this report may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB. CIMB, its affiliates and related companies, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of, or may be materially interested in, any such securities. Further, CIMB, its affiliates and its related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and

 

Finally move to 4.82 ..has been $ 4.66-4.78since July....warrants expiring 4 monts time....mother shares will move soon

 

Scheduled to launch paterson tower but delayed..Guess want to wait till near march so as to boost its share price then warrants can be exercised otherwise no extra $$$ going into co when warrants expire in March 2011...

 

mkt drops it went up..something brewing...its warrants due march 2011...exercise price $2.30,co must push mother shares otherwise no more free cash coming in

 

Time to move up after languishing below $5 since May 2010 when all property counters have surged

starlene      ( Date: 30-Jul-2010 10:26) Posted: Co will be launching paterson suites this qtr after ion orchard sold the remaining units..expect another year of good profits ..worth accu

 

Co will be launching paterson suites this qtr after ion orchard sold the remaining units..expect another year of good profits ..worth accu

 

Agreed ! has been moving sideway for sometime !  Time to move UP

 

it's time to move up again

 

Bukit Sembawang-$5 approaching -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AGM this fri 1030am at Amara Hotel...shares likely push >$5..current price is at $4.80...4% dividend quite safe counter consider its hugh landbank at Seletar area aquired at historical cost .Majority owned by Lee Rubber plantation and fund managers like Abdereen Asset Group.I've bought a lot of the warrants when it was quite low exercise price only $2.30

starlene      ( Date: 18-Feb-2010 00:06) Posted: Bukit Sembawang Estates: BUY; S$4.60; Bloomberg Code: nonsense SP Buy For The Boost Price Target : S$ 6.07 (Prev S$ 5.94) At a Glance 3Q10 results below expectations; 9M10 formed 36% of our FY10F Recent sales yet to translate into revenue, FY10F cut 35% on slower recognition schedule Stock remains a strong proxy to landed housing demand and Singapore’s land scarcity factor Take advantage of market consolidation to BUY, TP revised up to S$6.07 on higher ASP assumptions for its Paterson and Cairnhill projects Comment on Results 3Q10 Reverses Year-Ago Loss. Bukit Sembawang Estates’ (BSE) 3Q10 PATMI of S$3.0m reversed a year-ago loss of S$1.5m. Year-ago loss was due to higher interest expense from suspension of capitalization of borrowing costs on project deferral. 9M10 PATMI was S$11.1m, 15% below y-o-y and forming only 36% of FY10F. Recent Sales Yet to Boost. Revenue was flat yoy at S$17.9m, supported by progressive recognition at Parc Mondrian (100% sold) and Paterson Suites (20% sold). We look ahead to FY11 where we expect recognition to commence for Verdure (fully sold) and a stronger earnings kicker from landed project Luxus Hills and Paterson Suites, with the latter potentially benefiting from renewed high-end interest. We adjust FY10F down 35% on slower recognition schedule. Balance Sheet Stable. Gearing remained stable at 0.8x. That said, we do not expect any major acquisitions by BSE going forward. Recommendation Landed Housing Strong. Interest in landed housing remains strong. Traditionally viewed as a price laggard, the official price index for terrace housing has retraced 25.9% from the trough in the current cycle, against a lower 24.3% for non-landed housing. In the 2004-08 run-up, the terrace price index rose 38.2% against the stronger 62% appreciation in the non-landed price index. BUY, TP S$6.07. We advise investors to take advantage of a market consolidation to buy this long-term value gem, the cheapest developer under our coverage at 0.5x P/RNAV. Our RNAV is revised up to S$8.67 (from S$8.4 on higher ASP assumptions for its Paterson (S$3,000 psf) and Cairnhill (S$2,500 psf) projects.

 

Stock Alert: BktSemb edges higher today. Up $0.100 to $4.96. High of $4.97. 

 

Stock Alert: BktSemb broke $4.78 resistance and on an uptrend. News of property on the uptrend helps to push counter movement.

 

Bukit Sembawang Estates: BUY; S$4.60; Bloomberg Code: nonsense SP Buy For The Boost Price Target : S$ 6.07 (Prev S$ 5.94) At a Glance 3Q10 results below expectations; 9M10 formed 36% of our FY10F Recent sales yet to translate into revenue, FY10F cut 35% on slower recognition schedule Stock remains a strong proxy to landed housing demand and Singapore’s land scarcity factor Take advantage of market consolidation to BUY, TP revised up to S$6.07 on higher ASP assumptions for its Paterson and Cairnhill projects Comment on Results 3Q10 Reverses Year-Ago Loss. Bukit Sembawang Estates’ (BSE) 3Q10 PATMI of S$3.0m reversed a year-ago loss of S$1.5m. Year-ago loss was due to higher interest expense from suspension of capitalization of borrowing costs on project deferral. 9M10 PATMI was S$11.1m, 15% below y-o-y and forming only 36% of FY10F. Recent Sales Yet to Boost. Revenue was flat yoy at S$17.9m, supported by progressive recognition at Parc Mondrian (100% sold) and Paterson Suites (20% sold). We look ahead to FY11 where we expect recognition to commence for Verdure (fully sold) and a stronger earnings kicker from landed project Luxus Hills and Paterson Suites, with the latter potentially benefiting from renewed high-end interest. We adjust FY10F down 35% on slower recognition schedule. Balance Sheet Stable. Gearing remained stable at 0.8x. That said, we do not expect any major acquisitions by BSE going forward. Recommendation Landed Housing Strong. Interest in landed housing remains strong. Traditionally viewed as a price laggard, the official price index for terrace housing has retraced 25.9% from the trough in the current cycle, against a lower 24.3% for non-landed housing. In the 2004-08 run-up, the terrace price index rose 38.2% against the stronger 62% appreciation in the non-landed price index. BUY, TP S$6.07. We advise investors to take advantage of a market consolidation to buy this long-term value gem, the cheapest developer under our coverage at 0.5x P/RNAV. Our RNAV is revised up to S$8.67 (from S$8.4 on higher ASP assumptions for its Paterson (S$3,000 psf) and Cairnhill (S$2,500 psf) projects.

 

Bukit Sembawang Estates

Result note - Less recognised this quarter - by Donald Chua

(BS SP / BSES.SI, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, S$4.60 - Tgt. S$5.64, Property)

Maintain Outperform on BukitSemb. 3Q10 core net profit of S$3m came in below expectations, forming 12% of our full-year estimate and consensus. 9M10 core net profit of S$7m accounted for only 28% of our full-year number, due to lower recognition of presales and higher construction costs. Strong take-up during its recent launches should mean a show-up of profits in later quarters. Buoyed by strength in the high-end market, we believe BukitSemb could release The Vermont in 2010. Exposure to a large, quality land bank acquired before the property upcycle remains BukitSemb's key strength. We lower our FY10-12 core EPS estimates by 5-49% on higher construction-cost estimates and a less aggressive recognition schedule. Our end-CY10 RNAV has been trimmed from S$7.60 to S$7.51 consequently. Our target price, still pegged at a 25% discount to RNAV, dips by 1.5% to S$5.64. While a history of management inactivity and low trading liquidity remain negatives, we see valuations attractive at a 39% discount to RNAV and relative to its peers.

 

10:50:01	5.160	2,000	B
09:57:15	5.150	10,000	B
09:49:15	5.180	2,000	A
09:45:07	5.180	1,000	A
09:44:13	5.180	1,000	A
09:41:08	5.180	2,000	A
09:35:46	5.180	1,000	A
09:19:03	5.180	1,000	A

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fly baby fly...

be a Nike!

 

http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?p=3288888#3288888

hanwudi      ( Date: 16-Nov-2009 23:04) Posted: Basing on URA report, 3Q see more transaction in middle high end private home sales. We shall see it breaking the barrier of $5.25 soon.