OCBC Bank    Last:16.16    -0.19

OCBC

Very unlucky to buy OCBC, the worst performing STI blue chip, the other 2 banks up 30% from lows, OCBC only 10% up from low.

Think the only comparable stock equally bad shape as OCBC is SPC.

 

Last wk was DBS to be sold down ruthlessly, this wk is OCBC, wonder which blue chip will be whacked by analyst next week and given worthless ratings.

Seems analysts are incredible. 1 to 2 years of profit drop can cause a company's target value to drop by more than 50%.

The difference in profit is less than 1 billion for each of the banks, but their market value drop by 10 to 15 billion each. Incredible, more than 10x over reaction.

 

Channel 5 news just annouce OCBC which hold Great Eastern might be affected by it earnings

 

Is OCBC so junk that it is trading at a price to book value lower than DBS? OCBC never ever traded at a price to book value lower than DBS until today in the past 10 yr as far as i know. 1 lot of UOB (high 24.20 in 2007, low 9.25 Apr 2003) used to be worth slightly more than 2 lots of OCBC (high 9.80 in 2007, low of 4.10 in Apr 2003) for the past 5 years. But now 1 lot of UOB can buy 3 lots of OCBC. Looks like OCBC has shrink water alot, or it has a huge time bomb hidden that makes it much worse than DBS.

 

The current prices dun reflect the book value correctly. Underlying problem??? Typ UOB n DBS.

AK chosen to play UOB the whole day.

Long 2 lots avg 12.32 during show time. Quite reluctant to clear at 1260 closed price. Instead Q 12.68 in last sec.

Online system prompted me that both cleared at 12.80 at 17.05, pre-close period. Tks for

the BBs. They made more rooms for tomorrow market, as then EU markets well performed.

And anticipated DJ tonite will not dip. AK guess only loh.

goondoo      ( Date: 29-Oct-2008 16:36) Posted: Yes, NAV can change, but Sg banks' NAV is quite stable, currently trading at 20% to 30% below NAV. DBS Book value is $13. UOB book is $12. OCBC book about $6.40. Mkt seems to expect them to make a huge write down in the region of 20% to 30% which is quite extreme.

 

Yes, NAV can change, but Sg banks' NAV is quite stable, currently trading at 20% to 30% below NAV.

DBS Book value is $13. UOB book is $12. OCBC book about $6.40.

Mkt seems to expect them to make a huge write down in the region of 20% to 30% which is quite extreme.

 

I think NAV can change as well. Normally, we use the recent NAV. For next yr, it might go down slightly as assets will be down as well. Am i right? Can someone enlighten me on this. Thanks.

 

Now all 3 banks are trading way below their book value, something that happened only once every 5 years (1998, 2003, 2008).

The mkt is pricing in a huge loss (rather than profit) for all 3 banks for them to trade at a such a sharp discount to book value. This is extreme case of market panic, as market prices Singapore banks at a sharp discount equal to U.S. banks with huge losses.

 

3QTR : expected profit down, esp those kena related financial crisis ones.

They need to cough out $ for compensation, though not all invested, but quite substantial.

DBS: 26 10 07

UOB: 30 10 07

OCBC: 6 11 07

Not a short call. But if u long UOB during show time, by now u may make kopi $.

AK got 2 lt for testing only. For fun loh.

Arbitrager      ( Date: 29-Oct-2008 15:22) Posted: both DBS and UOB are down 59% and -53% respectively from their previous high while OCBC is only down 49%, alot of room for it to come down further.

 

both DBS and UOB are down 59% and -53% respectively from their previous high while OCBC is only down 49%, alot of room for it to come down further.

 

Why is OCBC being whack so badly compare to the other 2 banks?

Up 5% but down 10%.

 

Contra at $5.03, didn't make it yesterday, but checked this morning, it was done at $5.11, could be due to buying back for short sellers!

 

In situations like these, nothing is cheap until it goes below NAV. Look at some non-banking counters trading at 1/4 their NAV! This has happened before. Keep your cash and wait. As I've mentioned 2 weeks ago, this kind of trading is for the blind and the very brave.

 

Just stay off line. Keep your cash, and shall return.

 

2m0r0 n0 eye t0 see ! My hard money sure gone!!

 

When it dropped to 5.5, i thought it was cheap, then when it was $5 also thought, very cheap. Now 4.88...is it cheap, very very cheap?? I agree with AK, we don't know the bottom yet.

 

Wow.... $4.88 does look attractive....but heavy weigh man  ....

 

Really, with current global market sentiments, AK opine that the worst is not over yet.

Cheap is not that cheap yet. Is it bottom yet, no feeling. Coveat Emptor.

 

SPH VS OCBC WHICH ONE WORTH FOR LONG TERM @CURRENT PRICE...SPH WITH DIV..pls advise...

 

Yes agree, that out of the local bank share price. This is considered the lowest liao....thinking of long term investing this share as well.