K1 Ventures   

K1, result coming $$$119mil profit

Hi savvysamyeo, thk for some insight on how fund do their intensive FA on stock in which fund is vested.

I believe in U, like U but i am not in any fund managing, but in this line since 1970s,  going along as always, i have to park some of my small $$$ in some stable stocks to collect some kopi monies.  

 

Hi puntit,

Yeah, some people do use TA and FA hand in hand. There're no hard and fast rules. Me - I'm a TA purist. It suits my personality and my trading habits. I don't like reading research reports or finding out about how the company is doing etc...

I come to a trading decision in under 3 mins by just studying the charts of a stock.

 

allantanhc, in truth for smaller investors it would be best to lock themselves into companies with sound fundamentals and forget about trading and scalpings. The cost and commissions incurred for entry and exit can negate any moderate gains. In the first instance my advise , to illustrate with an actual example: when I first started in the 1970s, if an investor had identified the then nascent DBS which I accumulated some at less than $2, I think it was $1.8 and over the past decades the portfolios I oversaw without undue trading, many of the clientele are sitting on more than 1000% capital gains not including bonuses and dividends. Of course during market plunges we went in to average up like in the 1987 crash and 1998 Asian crises. Indeed some of the grateful clientele are retired on just their initial investments in DBS from 1970's.! Of course in the early 1970's and even 1980's there were so many growth stock in S'pore which we identified, one of my favourite was Venture which was listed in Sesdag then at 70c, we like the management and locked it into many portfolios and there you have it now! Admittedly when some of the more adventurous one decided to incorporate the more risky Malaysian stock during the boom years of mid 1990's  without too much recourse to fundamentals I am disappointed to say that some of these portfolios never recovered and the sob stories we had were most educational, now you know why I am a fundamentalist first and last and nowadays we do not take clientele who can ill afford to put their money for at least 1 year with us, it makes for saner operations. This is in part an answer to your question. However if you are exceptionally well endowed and are willing to leave your fund with a reputable manager which you should "interview"and feel comfortable with for a period of 5 years I think we can beat the market average in S'pore; as we think S'pore has reinvented herself and is now in another value added tier of economic growth for the next 10 years at least, and you should be getting returns of 20% annualised at least with a responsible fund manager. Do not think too short term is my advise if you are building a eggnest. I tell you Singaporeans are very fortuitous, because of our stability and financial strength we can expect many market enhancements activities from offshore investors in the forseeable future. Notwithstanding these optimism I advise that you not be carried away with early successes and must ever be contrite and respectful of  the market - most time you can pace it but cannot always beat it with short term perspectives, it takes one unforseen steep market decline to wipe out our life long efforts. Caveat Emptor and Shun Fong!

 

Hi, savvysamyeo ,



     Thanks for the insights into the modus operandi of professional fund management and investment. If I may enquire, what will be a reasonable expected rate of return for money of individuals entrusted to professional fund houses for investment in mainly equities in Singapore? 

 

Puntit, to say that big investment houses and funds do not use TA is a misnomer,  of course they do to get a feel of the market and for comparative purpose. Having said this one should note that the perspective is a very long term one ranging from 1 year to 5 years and there are subscribers who are comfortable to leave their investments for decades. By virtue of size, length of investments and geographical spread the managers cannot be churning their portfolios and have strict professional guidelines to follow, and any unusual performance  have to have rational and cogent reasons, and woe begets the manager who are in default of unnecessary tradings of the portfolios under their care. The first approach in stock selection are based on clientele mandate and instructions e.g. some old traditional institutional investors will only invest in environmentally clean industries, while some prefer the more exciting emerging markets. From here on we have to do intensive FA researches to justify the portfolio constellation of stocks. The entries are often based on group assessment and considerations of market phases for the countries targeted , many factors are involved here socio,political, fashions , trends ( not TA) etc. Once a complilation is made it has to be approved by senior members of the investment houses. We would of course like to acquaint clients of our choice and strategy, this is what a professionally run house would do and give an estimate of the the returns over time based on fundamental deducement. Of course we do not try to enter an investment at market peak and here some of us will use macro views and comparisons of global markets using TAs, while others eschew this and go in based on due fundamental diligence. Similarly we prune and exit based on clientele mandate  studied  fundamental assessments. So you see TA really are only a peripheral part of the operations if investing large funds over the long term. By this means, we do not always win but the fact that there are still so many reputable houses in existence despite their age testify to the successes and satisfaction of big investors- clientele.  I do not include the more recent phenomena of the huge hedge funds who are so extremely leveraged that they can sometimes distort the normal cycles of markets by their ingenious derivatives and unusual modus operandi, sometimes out of fundamenals if I may say. These funds by their  lesser regard for fundamentals of course track the liquidity and flow of the markets using their  "sophisticated" charts and formula and essentially are not in for the long term. They can be quite devastating in the name of unfettered capitalism but often then not when they fall it is their subscribers out of desire  for high returns which get wrecked. Just look at the Asian crisis of 1998/1999 and the recent much hyped Amaranth fund. I do not subscribe to this "quick method" for wealth through exciting bumpings and dumpings.

 

I'd always had the impression that TA and FA works hand in hand. As a  small-time retail punter, I obviously don't have an inkling of what big investors are using  for their buy/sell decisions, but I believe it is possible the big boys are utilizing all the best tools available at their disposal, ie all analytic tools including scientific, business and psychological tools. In short,  I believe they are 'into' all the factors that animate the market.   

 

Hi  S'poregal, thanks for replying. This is my observation too and I am glad you have confirmed it. I do enjoy your insights as I am not  into TA for obvious reasons that big investors generally do not place much by TA.  Regards.

 

When is the results coming out?

 

Volume still very low leh....unable to break $0.405c and so near to AGM, look like can go in to tikam tiakm abit at $0.40 or at $0.395c after AGM, another the long... long..... wait for 0.06 cts.

 

Hi savvysamyeo,

In my humble opinion, I think that TA doesn't really work on relative cheap stocks (<$1.0) or those with low volume. This is because the charts respond wildly to the faintest buying or selling activity. Therefore FA would work better on these stocks.

So you may be right to use FA here.  :)

Cheers!

 

cashiertan,



We all have our investment strategies. I have found that FA works well for me, so I base my decisions on FA.



Recently I began to read up on TA and have been trying to incorporate TA into my decision making.....in particular entry and exit timing. So, until I am savvy enough in TA, my decisions will still be based first on FA, and if the stock meets my criteria, I will use TA to time my entry/exit. Time will tell if this combination works for me.



At the end of the day, we are here to share our experiences  for the purpose of making decisions that will turn out to be profitable. FA or TA...whatever suits us, and as long as we make $$$, then good for us.

 

There is really no need to apologise for differences in views for this is the purpose of this forum to exchange ideas and views. Neither do we have to differentiate or defend one's method  if it is a valid practice, for in truth  effective market participants probably encompass all methods to varying degree of profundness. The short term traders will find TA a more regular tool but will not ignore fundamentals if he is wise. Similarly the fund and big investors by virtue of their size cannot trade too readily at every fluctuation of the curve and  have to take long term views eschwing the short term trends, but they are wise too not to miss the sometimes violent but opportunistic swings by inordinate numbers of traders. Each have their place in the market and I have found it very educational in understanding the local markets from the threads here. We have opinions and views and  these are not necessarily defensive critiques of others' ways. Regards.

 

i do apologise for the difference in views here. as for me and singgal, we are more of TA guys and i believe our holdings is within 2 weeks to not more than 6 months.

those fa guys may be rite in their view, however, TA guys are rite in their views too. the key is which side of strategy  want to used and comfortable with. for me, i am still vested in k1 due to failure to sell out at 41c earlier. also waiting for the release of distribution, this is due to common sense than TA.. lolz

 

savvysamyeo,



Sorry, not red chip...cap red => short for capital reduction.



Advice appreciated and taken.

 

shplayer, if you are buying for investments and not short term tradings now is good a time as any. Sometimes common sense must prevail, whether K1 will be discounted 6c xd or what other sections of the market is doing will be smoothened out in the long term. I don't get your point about red chips and going before or after xd, actually if you want to see the macro picture the Spore bourse has actually corrected quite drastically mid year with many traders still linking their speculative wounds. Taking the longer term and economic macro view of Spore , the Spore market is actually undervalued and soon when bigger international investors see this the market will move again, take a cue; the US is not going to dive any time soon and the performance of the DJIA  is a measure not only of American mainland but their prowess of investment overseas if you will like to know why the Dow is so resilient.

 

saavvysamyeo,



thanks for your reply and sharing your insights.



At this moment, I am not vested in K1..but after reading this post, I was quite attracted to it and did some research on it. It certainly seems like a good, stable counter, with good management and diverse investment portfolio. Their financials are sound and they have a good pedigree of major shareholders and directors. I am certainly now seriously considering being vested.......but trying to assess the timing to enter....the market is too toppish at the moment....also, should I do it after xd (of cap red) or before????



If you have read some of my threads in this forum, you will gather that I am more of an FA practioner and I invest with medium to long term strategy. However, I am trying to pick up TA techniques to squeeze the extra 5 - 10% out of my investment.

 

shplayer, we have the mandate to invest Asia wide so you see it is rather a complicated affair. I do enjoy coming to this forum to share and learn. I think compared to the 1980s the younger S'porean investors are more savvy and knowledgeable - daring to take risk. Actually we do not as a rule take big positions in smaller capitalised and unproven companies. But this K1 is attracting attention with the bigger investors by virtue of the sophistication and global networking attribute of the Chairman Mr J Green who I belived was a banker and ex American ambassador to Singapore. We believe Mr Green has more to his vision than just enhancing shareholder values which he is doing very well and in such short timespan. It may be that K1 will be a notable vehicle one day for promoting closer entrepuenurial expertises between business America and Singapore as the gateway to the East. To achieve this K1 has to grow rapidly for it to be in the radar screen of big investors from US. Yes we have thought about this and  has decided to put K1 into many of our porttfolios. We have been accumulating  soon after the May, June lows from 36c upwards and intent to advise keeping this as a long term core holding for the potential and quality of the management we perceived. I am sharing this with you in good faith for I perceived there are many short term players who should really appreciate this investment for what it is truly worth. Mr shplayer if you are in K1 - good for you.

 

savvysamyeo,

Are you a fund manager? If so, is/are any of the funds in your portfolio picking up this counter? At what price levels?

 

Ah, Singaporegal, it seems we have attracted your attention...... in my line we do not justify our strategies solely by TAs alone. I only have a passable knowledge of TA and rely more on FA . A point of interest here , it may be that TA are more useful for short term traders, how confident are you in the validity of  TAs and trends for strong stocks that are bought for the long term ,say a year or more. Maybe I would like to tell you that at times when a big institution buy or sell they do so often regardless of TA . When we are given a mandate we rebalance the portfolios irrespective of the the TA of stocks.

 

K1 looks to be on a downtrend from its TA charts.