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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 9/15/2011
September 15, 2011
SOFTENED STANCE ON GREECE, JOBS DATA WORSENS
From the Closing Gold and Silver Market Report to now, precious metals pricing has seen a downward turn, primarily on the growing confidence that Greece can be bailed out. Not everyone shares that rosy outlook. " It's the denial stage that's taken hold of all the markets—(a belief) that everything's going to be fine, the EU and U.S. leaderships can manage to put their economies to rights," said VM Group analyst Carl Firman. " I don't think that is the case, and I think it's only a matter of time before that comes home to roost. The gold price is probably going to benefit from that." However, those losses are already being changed to gains on weaker than expected factory and jobs data.
After Chancellor Merkel’s warnings to financial ministers and other leaders to watch what they say to avoid market volatility, it seems to be working. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn came out and basically said that after the inspections were done, he expects Greece to hit all fiscal targets. He said, " Over the last weekend, the Greek government took very important decisions that go a long way to meeting the fiscal target for this year…It is now essential that they go all the way and convince their partners so that they can expect a decision to be taken by the euro area and the IMF in time before the next hurdles of financing will emerge.” There is still strong opposition to any use of a euro bond.
The national economic news has caused a bit of a bump in the road today, as applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased. Instead of hitting the estimated 411,000, it actually rose to 428,000. The consumer price index (CPI) also rose 0.4% following the 0.5% increase in July, and New York manufacturing data dwindled for a fourth consecutive month.
At 8:00 AM (CT) the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,788.50 – Down $40.40.
- Silver - $40.11 – Down $0.49.
the greatest wealth is health .Gold tumbles as EU leaders reassure on Greece
(Reuters) - Gold fell to its lowest since late August on Thursday after signs that euro zone leaders are committed to keeping Greece in the euro ignited investor appetite for riskier assets at the expense of perceived safe havens, including German debt.
Equities and the euro got an additional boost from the world's largest central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England, saying they would reintroduce three-month operations to increase dollar liquidity as the degree of uncertainty has made banks wary of lending to each other.
Spot gold was down 2.1 percent at $1,783.49 an ounce at 1405 GMT, having earlier dipped as low as $1,778.49 and is set for its first monthly decline since June, although it is still one of this year's best-performing commodities, however, up more than 27 percent since January.
Gains in so-called higher risk assets are curbing a further rise. European shares rose on Thursday as investor sentiment was boosted by Wednesday's conference call betweenFrance, Germany and Greece. .EU
" People don't feel any more confident about the outlook for Europe, but obviously, there must be a bit more positivity for holding riskier assets," said Societe Generale analyst David Wilson.
" I still think the general trend for gold is upward, but it's a saw-toothed pattern and at the moment, we're on the downside," he said.
The latest U.S. data showed an above-forecast rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims, and August inflation cooling, along with a surprisingly large contraction in a reading of regional manufacturing, highlighting the weakness in the U.S. economy.
" It's the denial stage that's taken hold of all the markets -- (a belief) that everything's going to be fine, the EU and U.S. leaderships can manage to put their economies to rights," said VM Group analyst Carl Firman.
" I don't think that is the case, and I think it's only a matter of time before that comes home to roost. The gold price is probably going to benefit from that."
German government bond futures staged their largest one-day fall in six months on signs of more willingness from policymakers to solve Greece's debt crisis, prompting some to trim positions in safe-haven bonds.
French and German leaders told Greece on Wednesday it was vital to implement reforms set under a bailout plan. Patience is wearing thin among euro zone members with Greece's failure to meet fiscal and structural reform targets.
CALMER WATERS
Gold prices have steadied after the extreme volatility seen earlier this month, which saw prices trading in a greater-than-$50 range for five successive trading sessions.
" It is clear that the gold market is sorely in need of inspiration here," said UBS analyst Edel Tully in a note.
" Short of an intensification or calming of the euro zone debt crisis, or a massive surprise from U.S. data, the gold market will likely have to wait for next week's (Federal Reserve) meeting for fresh impetus."
Metals consultancy GFMS said in a report on Thursday that it expected gold prices to break through $2,000 an ounce by year-end, as recovering investment added to already strong bar, jewelry and official sector buying.
World investment -- which includes activity in the coin and bar, exchange-traded fund, Comex and over-the-counter sectors -- is expected to climb 1 percent this year despite a sharp drop in interest in the first quarter.
On the supply side of the market, a Libyan central bank official last night poured cold water on the idea that the cenbank would sell more of its gold, after 29 tonnes was disposed of in April/May this year.
Silver was down 1.6 percent at $40.01 an ounce, spot platinum was down 1.1 percent at $1,787.49 an ounce, and spot palladium was up 1.0 percent at $722.22 an ounce.
BNP Paribas raised its silver and platinum forecasts and cut its palladium price view for this year and next. It said while higher gold prices were likely to benefit silver and platinum, palladium, the most industrial of the major precious metals, was vulnerable.
" Palladium is the only precious metal to have fallen in price in the year to date. Its fundamentals have steadily deteriorated during the year," it said.
" We now expect the market to be in surplus in 2011 and into the first half of 2012."
(Reporting by Jan Harvey Editing by Alison Birrane) the greatest wealth is health .Gold steadies after fall eurozone hopes weigh
SINGAPORE, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Gold steadied on Thursday but was still under pressure from rising equities and optimism over tentative steps by European policy makers to resolve and contain the region's debt crisis.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold added $5.39 to $1,825.49 an ounce by 0017 GMT, having fallen 0.7 percent in the previous session. Bullion was well below a lifetime high around $1,920 an ounce struck last week.
* U.S. gold futures GCcv1 added $1.1 to $1,827.60 an ounce.
* The leaders of France and Germany told Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou in a conference call on Wednesday it was vital to implement reforms and meet fiscal goals set under a July 21 bailout plan.
MARKET NEWS
* The Nikkei average rose on Thursday after U.S. stocks marked their third day of gains following European leaders' suggestion of renewed resolve to contain the euro-zone debt crisis.
* The euro held on to gains against the greenback in another volatile session on Thursday, boosted by stronger stocks and calming words from European leaders about Greece's future, but sentiment remains extremely fragile.
* Brent crude rose Wednesday on hopes the euro zone's debt
crisis would ease, while U.S. oil futures fell following
data showing a surprise increase in U.S. product inventories.
the greatest wealth is health .Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 9/14/2011
September 14, 2011
GOLD UP 29% IN 2011 CHINA AND INDIA GOLD DEMAND STILL STRONG
Precious metals are up from mid-day trading prices. China’s announcement to help the eurozone has somewhat eased tensions over the financial crisis, for now, giving gold a rest as investors take a shot at riskier investments. As mentioned in this morning’s commentary, the dollar has done well today which has also taken away from the safe haven buying of gold. Prices are still up 44% since a year ago, 29% since January 2011, making an 11th straight year of annual gains.
Commerzbank is reporting that India and China continue to be strong supporters of gold demand. The National Bureau of Statistics says that despite China’s gold production soaring to approximately 454.8 tons for the first 8 months of this year, the country has still imported close to 390 tons of gold in the first half of this year. Will Rhind, Head of U.S. Operations for ETF Securities, says, “The picture is still very much the same for gold. The world is running out of safe havens…but once this initial selling goes through we will see higher gold prices.”
At 4:00 pm (CT) the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,824.90 – Down $7.20.
- Silver - $40.85 – Down $0.42.
the greatest wealth is health ./
POOR GUY, where is his wife, kids, friend and CONgress ??
Gold falls after EU debt plan feeds risk appetite
* Euro-priced gold holds just below record highs
* Correlation with equities breaks down
* Coming up: U.S. August CPI Thursday, 1230 GMT
LONDON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Gold fell by nearly 1 percent on Tuesday after European leaders appeared to take a fresh step towards quelling the euro zone debt crisis, which dented other safe-haven assets, in spite of more data highlighting the fragility of the U.S. economy.
Gold priced in euros also came under pressure from the pick-up in the single European currency but remained within less than 2 percent of record highs struck the day before.
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the group would examine how the euro zone could issue bonds jointly, which investors took as a step towards solving the debt crisis, but he added this would be no magic bullet to the end of the problem.
Equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic rose following Barroso's comments, which weighed on gold and other safe-havens such as German government bonds.
But analysts said that with no immediate solution to the crisis in sight, the bullion price would continue to react to surges and retreats in investor appetite for risk.
Spot gold was last down 0.8 percent at $1,818.49 an ounce at 1405 GMT, having lost 2.0 percent so far this week and set for its second weekly fall, its longest since early July.
Gold priced in euros was last down 0.7 percent at 1,329.99 euros an ounce, just 1.8 percent shy of the all-time high at 1,373.92 euros hit on Monday.
" The upside is a little capped at the moment. While the ongoing economic concerns, in Europe in particular are gold-positive, it's not enough at the moment to create a catalyst to drive prices higher."
" In general, broad, fresh investment demand has slowed. We had a pickup in speculative positions last week, but ETF flows and coin sales have slowed as well, so we're missing that momentum."
Concern about the deepening European debt crisis grew after Moody's Investor Services cut its ratings on the debt of France's two largest investment banks because of their exposure toGreece, while Italy paid more in interest at a sale of its five-year bonds than at any time since joining the euro.
U.S. WORRIES
Also reflecting the unease in Washington over the crisis, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner took the unprecedented decision to attend a meeting of EU finance ministers on Friday.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are due to hold a conference call later on Wednesday after talk resurfaced among euro zone policymakers about a Greek default.
U.S. data showed wholesale inflation slowed in August and retail sales stalled, after consumer confidence plunged after a bruising battle over the U.S. budget slammed stock prices and pushed the nation to the brink of default.
Fear of the spread of the debt crisis to the larger economies of the euro zone has been a major driving force behind gold's 22-percent rally this quarter.
Flows of metal into exchange-traded funds backed by physical gold -- one of a number of gauges of investor demand for gold -- have risen by 4 percent so far this quarter, compared with a 1 percent rise in the third quarter of 2010.
The dollar's strength against the euro has acted as a brake on gold, which usually reacts negatively to a rising U.S. currency.
But gold's correlation with the dollar has also eroded ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week, which will provide the markets with the next signal on where U.S. monetary policy is headed to revitlise the flagging economy.
" As long as the dollar remains buoyant, it will hamper gold's potential," said UBS strategist Edel Tully in a note.
" Moreover, as we have often noted, gold is not immune to downward pressure whenever risk aversion becomes extreme and assets are broadly sold to raise cash: while we are not quite there yet, tension is definitely building up and equities are trading heavy," she said.
After having spent trillions of dollars over the last couple of years on buying government debt to anchor market interest rates and committing to keeping U.S. rates around zero for at least two years, many fear the Fed may be running out of options to kickstart growth and job creation.
The prospect of another round of bond-buying, or quantitative easing, seems to have receded and the Fed is now widely expected to signal it will sell shorter-dated Treasuries and buy longer-dated debt to lower longer-term interest rates.
Gold has been a major beneficiary of the Fed's QE programme, having risen by 40 percent since the start of the central bank's $600-billion bond-buying spree that ended in June, thanks to the rise in liquidity and the downward pressure on interest rates that make it a more attractive investment.
In other precious metals, silver was down 0.1 percent at $41.00 an ounce, platinum was flat at $1,809.74 an ounce, while palladium was down 0.1 percent at $720.75 an ounce. (Editing by Alison Birrane)===========================================
the greatest wealth is health .============================================
Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 9/14/2011
September 14, 2011
FRENCH BANKS DOWNGRADED FED PREPARES TO DO THE ‘TWIST’
Precious metals were mostly down throughout overnight trading, while stock futures were down before turning higher earlier this morning. The Producer Price Index and retail sales numbers were released at 7:30 am (CT), and showed virtually no change from July’s numbers. Even though this was in line with expectations, stock futures have given up recent gains, while precious metals pared losses. The PPI is seen as a good indicator of inflation. While food prices rose, fuel prices dropped, giving us a flat result overall.
After a recent review, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the credit ratings of two prominent French banks, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole. Word that the banks were under review for downgrade has been part of the reason European stocks have been tumbling of late. Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer believes that the markets have already priced-in this downgrade, and does not expect it to have any further effect on bank stocks.
The Federal Reserve will reportedly discuss “Operation Twist” at their meeting next week. This is a plan to shift weight in the Fed’s balance sheet more towards long-term securities as opposed to short-term debt. Michelle Meyer, an economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said, “That sends a signal the Fed is still active in supporting growth.” The Fed is keeping a close eye on the debt situation in Europe as well as problems in the U.S., such as the troubling 9.1% unemployment rate.
At 8:00 am (CT) the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,830.70 – Down $1.40.
- Silver - $41.04 – Down $0.23.
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the greatest wealth is health .
Gold steady on euro zone woes dollar weighs
* Gold's uptrend to hold, but short-term correction likely
* Spot gold could rise to $1,885.39 -technicals
* Coming Up: Greece, France and Germany conference call 1600 GMT
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Spot gold held steady on Wednesday, as investors flocked to bullion for safe haven from fears of crisis contagion in Europe while technical weakness and a strong dollar weighed on prices.
Investors are watching a conference call among Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, set for 1600 GMT, amid renewed talk among euro zone policymakers about a Greek default.
" Technically we are running into a challenging situation over the next 2-3 days, as the uptrend from the beginning of July faces a short-term correction," said Dominic Schnider, head of commodity research of UBS Wealth Management in Singapore.
The dire situation in Europe is expected to hold up the uptrend despite the chance of a brief consolidation, he said.
" People are realising the euro concept, not just the debt problem, has major flaws and if they are not changing dramatically in the set-up, we are going to end up in a huge crisis. This degradation is happening right now and warranting higher gold prices."
Spot gold inched up 0.4 percent to $1,840.36 an ounce by 0238 GMT, after rising 1.1 percent in the previous session.
U.S. gold GCcv1 rose 0.8 percent to $1,844.
Technical analysis suggested that U.S. gold could move sideways in the next few weeks, while commodities as a whole may correct moderately by the end of the year, said Reuters marketanalyst Wang Tao.
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the higher your energy level, the more efficient is your body.
Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 9/13/2011
September 13, 2011
STOCKS SURGE LATE AGAIN ‘BRICS’ TO BUY EURO DEBT?
Much like yesterday, stocks surged late to close in the black after spending most of the day in the red. Gold and platinum added to gains this afternoon, while silver and palladium have remained relatively flat. Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group said that investors thought yesterday’s dip in gold prices were “overdone,” bringing them back today. He also attributed a weaker dollar to supporting gold prices.
Arthur Hogan of Lazard Capital Markets brought this take on the most recent economic turmoil in the eurozone: “Right now you have to think about Greece as a binary event, like a biotech company in phase three development, they are either going to make it or they are not, and it’s up to Germany.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel is optimistic that leaders in the eurozone will be able to quell Finland’s objections to aid for Greece.
Markets experienced a boost late yesterday afternoon when a report showed that China was considering purchasing Italian debt before the report was debunked. A Brazilian official explains that while this may not be completely true, it’s also not completely false. In fact, the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are all considering an increase in their exposure to eurozone bonds, but the talks are still in a preliminary stage. This could provide some relief to the troubled markets both in Europe and the U.S.
At 4:00 pm (CT) the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,839.50 – Up $24.20.
- Silver - $41.15 – Up $0.86.
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the greatest wealth is still health