Vard   

STXOSV

Almost shorted this counter yesterday. Luckily is not penny stock. 

 

Stay invested as stxosv is still inexpensive at 10x CY 13...CIMB

 

Offshore & Marine SINGAPORE March 20, 2012

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES. INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA

Guns ablazin’

STX OSV’s first two contracts for 2012 highlightitsclose tieswith long-standing, established Norwegian owners. They also reflect its order pipeline diversification

 

Maintain Outperform, EPS estimates and target price11x CY13 P/E, 10% discount to rolling forward core P/E mean of 12x. We see catalysts from

0.70.91.11.31.51.71.98297112127142157172Price CloseRelative to FSSTI (RHS)Source: Bloomberg20406080Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Vol m

Financial Summary Dec-10ADec-11ADec-12FDec-13FDec-14FRevenue (KRm)11,88112,40111,88311,70812,442Operating EBITDA (KRm)1,3292,3551,6641,5221,493Net Profit (KRm)1,0301,5941,077975948Core EPS (KR)0.751.370.910.830.80Core EPS Growth134%83%(33%)(10%)(3%)FD Core P/E (x)10.265.618.779.699.96DPS (KR)0.140.690.360.320.32Dividend Yield1.70%8.64%4.50%3.94%3.94%EV/EBITDA (x)7.773.735.705.865.64P/FCFE (x)12.0710.035.938.019.45Net Gearing76.8%(12.0%)7.1%(6.5%)(15.4%)P/BV (x)3.972.692.462.121.88Recurring ROE48.1%55.0%29.3%23.5%20.0%% Change In Core EPS Estimates 0%0%0%CIMB/consensus EPS (x) 1.030.951.05

1.762.020.831.78Target52-week share price rangeCurrent

SOURCE: CIMB,COMPANY REPORTS



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Recommendation Framework #2 **
Stock	Sector
OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months.	OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months.	NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% (or better) or -15% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns that will range from +15% to -15% both over the next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months.	UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse over the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 months.	TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better over the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 months.	TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse over the next 3 months.
** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2011 ExcellentAMATAVery Good, ExcellentAPVery Good, Excell Excellent Excellent, ExcellentBECVery Good,-Very Good,BGHnot available, Very GoodBIGCVery Good Very ,- -

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Recommendation Framework #1 *
Stock	Sector
OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.	OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant benchmark's total return.	NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.	UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.	TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.	TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.
* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand and Jakarta Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
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Figure

Bloomberg PriceTarget PriceMarket CapCore P/E (x)2-year EPSP/BV (x)Recurring ROE (%)Dividend Yield (%)CompanyTickerRecom.(lcl curr)(lcl curr) (US$ m)CY2012CY2013CAGR (%)CY2012CY2012CY2012Singapore OSV builderSTX OSVSOH SPOutperform1.762.02 1,645 8.89.7-0.2%2.4628.6%4.5%ASL MarineASL SPOutperform0.570.72 191 8.47.20.2%0.637.9%3.1%Jaya Holdings LtdJAYA SPNR0.56na 340 6.95.318.9%0.689.8%naOtto MarineOTML SPUnderperform0.140.10 210 na42.8na0.72-4.0%0.0%Singapore OSV builder (excl. NR)10.310.2-10.9%1.6215.7%3.9%Singapore rig builderKeppel CorporationKEP SPOutperform10.8713.70 15,470 13.812.23.7%2.3717.7%3.3%SembCorp MarineSMM SPOutperform5.296.28 8,774 17.015.2-2.2%4.1425.5%4.5%Singapore rig builder (average)14.813.11.8%2.8019.6%3.7%Chinese shipbuilderCosco CorporationCos SpUnderperform1.180.92 2,099 17.717.44.6%1.9110.9%2.5%Yangzijiang ShipbuildingYzj SpUnderperform1.381.43 4,185 7.27.8-6.3%1.6825.7%3.5%Chinese shipbuilder (average)9.09.5-4.6%1.7520.9%3.2%Korean shipbuilderDaewoo Shipbuilding & Marine E042660 KSNR34,350na 5,861 13.110.7na1.2710.6%1.4%Samsung Heavy Industries Co Lt010140 KSNR40,000na 8,233 13.010.5-1.5%1.7314.1%1.2%Hyundai Heavy Industries Co Lt009540 KSNR326,500na 22,122 9.08.510.9%1.2414.6%1.8%Korean shipbuilder (average)11.79.94.7%1.4113.1%1.5%Average (all)11.513.43.1%1.7114.7%2.6%

Share price info

Share price perf. (%

 

STX OSV secures contract for a subsea support vessel for Island Offshore worth more than NOK 500m. Delivery is scheduled for 1Q14, in Norway. Maintain Outperform, target price S$2.02. ...beyond them also possible in view of their billions worth of contracts and goood dividend definitely good for yr cpf

 

 

I think you have chance to buy back now.

james87      ( Date: 19-Mar-2012 23:57) Posted: Hopefully the correction could offer me another opportunity to buy back this counter : )

 

Hopefully the correction could offer me another opportunity to buy back this counter : ) 

 

Told U it will cross $2 matter of time..going to cum dividend unlikley will drop much $100 per lot very attractive and potential sale by STX Europe....will support the share price..load up using cpf can hold long term

james87      ( Date: 19-Mar-2012 12:23) Posted: speechless. Let it go too early...wish all huat

 

speechless. Let it go too early...wish all huat 

 

New high $1.79 donw this morning,last yr dividend its maiden yr since ipo in Oct 2101 $50 per lot so this year  FYE 2011 $100 is reasonable ...voted in BIZ Times among the highest dividend yield,lowest price to NTA,lowest price to book value,etc and a host of other factors eg high oil prices this specialist craft makers will benefit from extensive oil exploration-matter of time to cross $2

Igony77      ( Date: 16-Mar-2012 09:49) Posted: STX created new all time high today. Reaching 1.775 as of now...

 

STX created new all time high today. Reaching 1.775 as of now...

 

Last week Wednesday and Thursday STX rose sharply and declined sharply on Friday. Which way will it go tomorrow? We know tomorrow!

 

If got sale at $2, then the price will reach $2....if sale lower then the price will be lower......

If no sale, the price will collapse..................

After the dividend, I think the price will collapse as well...........I think they announce the dividend so high for  a reason......don't think this kind of dividend will be given next year....

james87      ( Date: 15-Mar-2012 16:36) Posted: What is pushing its price so high up? I somehow feel that there will be another correction soon... any views?

 

Retested again at this price. Let the market decide whether it will pierce through and beyond. Good luck.

starlene      ( Date: 15-Mar-2012 15:48) Posted: touched new high $1.745 today...matter of time to cross $2 this year starlene      ( Date: 08-Mar-2012 22:11) Posted: My earlier predictions all came true....as cum dividend date draws nearer...will cross $2 matter of time...mainlly in my cpf 150lots holding to get dividen

 

What is pushing its price so high up? I somehow feel that there will be another correction soon... any views? 

 

touched new high $1.745 today...matter of time to cross $2 this year

starlene      ( Date: 08-Mar-2012 22:11) Posted: My earlier predictions all came true....as cum dividend date draws nearer...will cross $2 matter of time...mainlly in my cpf 150lots holding to get dividend starlene      ( Date: 31-Jan-2012 11:01) Posted: When it was traded > $1.20 I predict it will close > $1.33 the last sale price by STX Europe now currently at $1.43.when resulst out on Valentine Day Feb 14 likley will close > $1.50..lomh term $2 stock,good to keep in cpf...just like my Biosensor holding from 60cts after Lehman Debacle,I went in  till now $1.57 as at toda

 

STX have been a stable company to invest in. Many possible suitors will be looking to buy into it but let's see if this rumor will stir STX up a bit tomorrow or not.

 

STX OSV: may be in focus today, after the Korea Economic Daily reported that Samsung Heavy was considering buying STX OSV.

However this has been subsequently denied by a Samsung spokesman.


Recall, parent STX Europe, which holds 50.75% of STX OSV, has been keen on exploring a share sale. STX Europe had previously retained

JPM and StanChart to handle the sale.


The stock last closed at $1.70, at the upper range of its uptrend channel, and is just shy of its all-time high of $1.735.

 

When is the AGM?

Igony77      ( Date: 13-Mar-2012 14:56) Posted: Agreed. I locked some STX in CPF where I buy before their FY results announced. Got them at $1.42 and kept them till now. Not going to let it go but keep for future evaluation.

 

Agreed. I locked some STX in CPF where I buy before their FY results announced. Got them at $1.42 and kept them till now. Not going to let it go but keep for future evaluation. 

 

The longer Stxosv hovers above $1.60 the better as it starting to form a base at this level...each time it crossed $1.72-1.73,dropped back a bit but few days later shoot back to $1.70 level..when AGM and with cum expect the stock to climb to at least $1.90 and even breaking $2 mark..with $100 per lot shares and listed in Biz Times as best dividend yield ,lowest forward PEs and lowest price to net assets...in fact good to keep stxosv in yr cpf and lock up for long term

 

Thanks catalyst. I guess I'll be contented if I could catch it at 1.5, since the previous price I have gotten it was 1.56 and sold it at a profit. Also, I do not know how to read charts and couldn't really tell what is the best or lowest entry price. I believe no one can really accurately gauge the best price, as long as I'm comfortable with price I'll just buy.

  I will take in consideration your viewpoint and it makes perfect sense. Thanks again :)   

catalyst      ( Date: 12-Mar-2012 23:02) Posted: Negative divergence btwn price and MACD. 1.50 is critical level to watch. I wont discount that it may go to that level. But you have to think that if it can go to 1.50 and break even lower, then it doesn't make 1.50 a good price, does it? So trade with caution too. Oil & gas prices are trending higher and higher.  May pose negative impact on this counter too. james87      ( Date: 12-Mar-2012 15:12) Posted: Anyone think that it will drop to 1.5+ level? waiting to re-enter again.