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Time to sell Gold???

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bsiong      ( Date: 25-Nov-2011 00:55) Posted: * Gold on track for second week of falls * Euro drops on Europe debt concerns * Indian silver imports expected to decline in 2011 By Clare Kane LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Gold steadied on Thursday to around $1,700 an ounce after its decline to one-month lows this week triggered some bargain hunting, with a slightly weaker dollar adding support to the precious metal. Gold's rise echoed gains in commodity markets, but concerns about the euro zone debt crisis continued to weigh on sentiment. Although gold is regarded as a safe haven asset to shield investors in times of uncertainty, it has increasingly become prone to pressure from selling in the wider financial market, moving in tandem with other assets as investor sentiment remains fragile. Spot gold traded at $1,694.29 an ounce at 1448 GMT, up 0.1 percent from $1,692.79 late in New York on Wednesday. On Monday it hit a one-month low at $1,665.88 an ounce. The precious metal is set for its second straight week of falls, down 1.5 percent so far this week. " Gold is having some difficulty holding above the $1,700 level over the last few days. The U.S. dollar will probably dictate where we head from here," Ross Norman of Sharps Pixley said. The dollar traded slightly lower against a basket of currencies. A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in U.S. dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies. " The market tends to quieten down by the first week of December and we're getting to the point where those who want to take profits after a pretty good year will start to do." Gold, which hit a record above $1,920.30 in September, is up more than 19 percent in the year-to-date. So far in November it has lost 1 percent. Trading was subdued due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. U.S. gold futures was down 0.2 percent at $1,693.40 an ounce. CRISIS CONCERNS The euro fell to the day's low versus the dollar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she still does not think common European bonds are necessary, intensifying concerns that European leaders cannot agree on solving the debt crisis. France pressed Germany on Thursday to let the European Central Bank act decisively to halt a stampede out of euro zone government bond markets that has raised doubts about the survival of the single currency. Germany itself suffered a failed bond auction on Wednesday, highlighting how investors are wary even of Europe's safest haven. The threat to the euro from the crisis increases the chances for gold to ease further, analysts said. " That the price slump in gold is mainly U.S. dollar-driven is evident from the fact that gold calculated in euros has been able to rise," Commerzbank said in a note. " Obviously gold is continuing to be sold to generate liquidity and compensate for losses in other asset classes. If equity and commodity markets continue to remain under pressure, this trend is initially likely to continue." Gold priced in euros was a touch higher on the day, trading around 1,271.51 euros an ounce, but has risen by nearly 2 percent in the last three trading days, its strongest three-day stretch of gains in two weeks. " It wouldn't surprise me if we still have another shift lower to test the big line of support, which is the 200-day moving average, which is getting close to $1,600 level," Tom Kendall, precious metals analyst at Credit Suisse said of the price of gold in dollars. Gold hit a 2-1/2 month low of $1,534.49 in late September, which was roughly the location of the 200-day moving average. Silver prices were also slightly higher, tracking gold's modest gains. Spot silver was up 0.2 percent on the day at $31.72 an ounce, but remained on track for a 7 percent decline in November. A senior official at ScotiaMocatta, a bullion dealer, said on Thursday Indian imports of silver would be marginally lower this year compared to last year. India is a leading consumer of silver and the world's largest consumer of gold.

 

* Gold on track for second week of falls

* Euro drops on Europe debt concerns

* Indian silver imports expected to decline in 2011

By Clare Kane

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Gold steadied on Thursday to around $1,700 an ounce after its decline to one-month lows this week triggered some bargain hunting, with a slightly weaker dollar adding support to the precious metal.

Gold's rise echoed gains in commodity markets, but concerns about the euro zone debt crisis continued to weigh on sentiment.

Although gold is regarded as a safe haven asset to shield investors in times of uncertainty, it has increasingly become prone to pressure from selling in the wider financial market, moving in tandem with other assets as investor sentiment remains fragile.

Spot gold traded at $1,694.29 an ounce at 1448 GMT, up 0.1 percent from $1,692.79 late in New York on Wednesday. On Monday it hit a one-month low at $1,665.88 an ounce.

The precious metal is set for its second straight week of falls, down 1.5 percent so far this week.

" Gold is having some difficulty holding above the $1,700 level over the last few days. The U.S. dollar will probably dictate where we head from here," Ross Norman of Sharps Pixley said.

The dollar traded slightly lower against a basket of currencies. A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in U.S. dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies.

" The market tends to quieten down by the first week of December and we're getting to the point where those who want to take profits after a pretty good year will start to do."

Gold, which hit a record above $1,920.30 in September, is up more than 19 percent in the year-to-date. So far in November it has lost 1 percent.

Trading was subdued due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. U.S. gold futures was down 0.2 percent at $1,693.40 an ounce.

CRISIS CONCERNS

The euro fell to the day's low versus the dollar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she still does not think common European bonds are necessary, intensifying concerns that European leaders cannot agree on solving the debt crisis.

France pressed Germany on Thursday to let the European Central Bank act decisively to halt a stampede out of euro zone government bond markets that has raised doubts about the survival of the single currency.

Germany itself suffered a failed bond auction on Wednesday, highlighting how investors are wary even of Europe's safest haven.

The threat to the euro from the crisis increases the chances for gold to ease further, analysts said.

" That the price slump in gold is mainly U.S. dollar-driven is evident from the fact that gold calculated in euros has been able to rise," Commerzbank said in a note.

" Obviously gold is continuing to be sold to generate liquidity and compensate for losses in other asset classes. If equity and commodity markets continue to remain under pressure, this trend is initially likely to continue."

Gold priced in euros was a touch higher on the day, trading around 1,271.51 euros an ounce, but has risen by nearly 2 percent in the last three trading days, its strongest three-day stretch of gains in two weeks.

" It wouldn't surprise me if we still have another shift lower to test the big line of support, which is the 200-day moving average, which is getting close to $1,600 level," Tom Kendall, precious metals analyst at Credit Suisse said of the price of gold in dollars.

Gold hit a 2-1/2 month low of $1,534.49 in late September, which was roughly the location of the 200-day moving average.

Silver prices were also slightly higher, tracking gold's modest gains. Spot silver was up 0.2 percent on the day at $31.72 an ounce, but remained on track for a 7 percent decline in November.

A senior official at ScotiaMocatta, a bullion dealer, said on Thursday Indian imports of silver would be marginally lower this year compared to last year.

India is a leading consumer of silver and the world's largest consumer of gold.

 

 

* Gold to revisit a high of $1,709.91  
* Coming Up: Germany GDP detailed yy Jul 2011  0700 GMT

	
    By Lewa Pardomuan	

    SINGAPORE, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Gold regained strength
on bargain hunting on Thursday but declines in equities blamed
on the euro zone crisis could prompt investors to sell bullion
to cover losses, while another rally in the U.S. dollar could
also put pressure on prices. 	
    Japanese stocks hit a two-and-a-half-year low and the euro
struggled after a disappointing German bond sale raised alarm
that Europe's ever-worsening sovereign debt crisis is starting
to affect even the continent's economic powerhouse. 	
    Spot gold added 0.25 percent to $1,697.03 an ounce by
0800 GMT, having slipped on Wednesday on falling equities, weak
Chinese factory data and a contracting euro zone economy.	
    Prices have eased more than 10 percent since hitting a
record of around $1,920 in September.	
    " In the near term, gold needs to sustain or close above
$1,726 an ounce for the reversal of the bullish tint,"  said
Pradeep Unni, senior analyst at Richcomm Global Services. 	
    " The recent weakness of the gold price has been largely due
to the option expiry of gold contacts and also the return of a
degree of confidence in the U.S. dollar, but that isn't going to
sustain for long after the failed U.S. debt deal."  	
    U.S. gold December futures added $1.9 to $1,697.80
an ounce. Thursday is the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.	
    	
    Debt problems plaguing Europe and the United States have
pressured markets, knocking the S& P 500 down more than 7 percent
over the last six sessions. World stocks hit their lowest in six
weeks on Wednesday. 	
    The euro held near seven-week lows against the dollar	
after poor demand for German government bonds indicated that
investors viewed investing in the euro zone as being too risky.
  	
    " The safe haven bid for gold could come back. For the
short-term however, gold prices are still tracking broad
movements in equity and commodity markets,"  said Ong Yi Ling, an
analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.  	
     " It is not immune to losses in external markets. In the
2008 financial crisis, gold dropped about 34 percent from its
peak before prices bottomed. I am looking for support at the
$1,600 level, and I think resistance is at about $1,780 to
$1,800."  	
    The physical sector saw some bargain hunting but overall
trading was muted at jewellers waited for prices to decline
further.	
    " There are bargain hunters at the lower end. I've seen a lot
of buyers when prices first dropped to $1,660, but I don't know
where they are now,"  said a dealer in Hong Kong.	
    " In general, people don't want to sell their gold bars now
because we don't know if recession is coming or not."  	

 

 

SINGAPORE, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Gold fell further on
Thursday as declines in equities blamed on the euro zone crisis
prompted investors to sell bullion to cover losses, while a
firmer U.S. dollar also put pressure on prices. 	
       	
    FUNDAMENTALS	
    * Spot gold fell 0.27 percent to $1,688.19 an ounce
by 0020 GMT, having slipped on Wednesday on falling equities,
weak Chinese factory data and a contracting euro zone economy.
Bullion struck a record of around $1,920 an ounce in September. 	
    * U.S. gold December futures dropped $4.8 an ounce
to $1,691.1 an ounce.	
    * The Nikkei average fell more than 1 percent to its lowest
level since April 2009 on Thursday, as mounting European debt
concerns push overseas equities markets lower. 	
    * A " disastrous"  German bond sale on Wednesday sparked fears
that Europe's debt crisis was starting to threaten even Berlin,
with the leaders of the euro zone's two biggest economies still
at odds over a longer-term structural solution. 	
       	
    MARKET NEWS	
    * The euro wallowed at seven-week lows against the dollar in
Asia on Thursday, having suffered a steep fall after a
" disastrous"  German bond sale fuelled fears the region's debt
crisis was beginning to threaten even Europe's biggest economy.
  	
    * U.S. crude futures eased below $96 a barrel on Thursday as
worries over global economic growth and a stronger dollar
outweighed a sharp drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles.

 

 

 

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/23/2011

By  Ryan SchwimmerNovember 23, 2011

 

* Gold eases, set for 1 pct slide in November

* ETF flows remain positive

By Clare Kane and  Amanda Cooper

LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Gold fell on Wednesday driven by worries about the  euro zone  debt crisis, which weakened the single European currency against the dollar, mitigating the impact of safe-haven bullion buying.

Italian and Spanish bond yields remained near euro-lifetime highs despite the presence of the European Central Bank in the market, while a disappointing German bond auction compounded the region's troubles.

The dollar rallied to its highest against a basket of major  currencies  in seven weeks, while its correlation to gold reached its most negative in a week, meaning that the bullion price was more likely to move inversely to the U.S. unit.

U.S. initial jobless claims and durable goods data, which came in broadly neutral, had little impact on gold, Barclays Capital precious metals analyst Suki Copper said, adding that the euro zone debt crisis and the impasse among U.S. lawmakers on a plan to tackle the country's multi-trillion dollar deficit would remain the focus for the market.

Spot gold was last down 1.08 percent on the day at $1,681.49 an ounce by 1512 GMT, having fallen to a session low of $1,679.59. So far in November, the gold price has fallen by about 1 percent, following October's 5.5 percent rise.

The expiry of options on gold  futures  on COMEX on Tuesday kept the gold price under pressure, even though most open interest was located around out-of-the-money options, along with evidence of further dollar funding stress.

Three-month cross-currency basis swaps, a means for non-U.S. investors to access dollar funding, showed the cost of acquiring the U.S. currency rose to its highest since the credit crunch of late 2008, creating greater incentive among holders of gold to sell the metal in exchange for hard cash.

" We're seeing some post-options expiry selling coming through. The turmoil still going on in financial markets and the euro dollar swap rates are still fairly high.... Gold may still be a casualty of that," Credit Agricole analyst Robin Bhar said, who added that the fundamental backdrop for gold remained positive.

" The bullish factors for gold haven't really disappeared, it's more positioning pushing it down."

The gold price, which is still on track for a near-20-percent gain this year, its eleventh consecutive yearly price increase, has fallen by about 12 percent from September's record $1,920.30, but this has not deterred investors.

 

DEMAND ONGOING

Holdings of gold in exchange-traded funds backed by physical metal have risen more than a million ounces in the last week, their largest weekly increase since early August.

Total holdings of metal at the major ETFs tracked by Reuters are up 2 million ounces in November, the heftiest inflow since July's 2.95-million ounce net rise.

" Total metal held in trust across the ETPs we track daily are at a record high, so we've seen the investment side starting to become very supportive but the physical side is still a little fluid," Barclays Capital's Cooper said.

Reflecting the demand among European investors for safe-haven assets in which to put their cash, European ETF inflows account for about 10 percent of total net inflows, while in terms of U.S. gold futures, speculative investors have raised their holdings by nearly 3 million ounces in November, which would be the second-largest monthly increase of 2011.

Weak manufacturing data from  China, the world's largest user of raw materials and second-largest gold consumer, wracked the industrial commodities, along with data showing the services sector in the euro zone contracted for a third straight month in November.

China's factory sector shrank the most in 32 months in November on signs of domestic economic weakness, reviving worries the country may be slipping towards a hard landing and fuelling fears of a global recession.

The euro zone's private sector also contracted for a third month in November as a paralysing debt crisis dragged the currency bloc to the brink of recession.

Silver fell 3.7 percent to $31.46 an ounce, alongside both gold and the base metals, which came under pressure after the Chinese manufacturing data.

Platinum and palladium were down between 1.5 and 3.3 percent. Platinum last traded at $1,544.75 an ounce, compared with $1,566.50 late in New York on Tuesday, while palladium fell to $582.7547 from $602.00 previously. (Additional reporting by Clare Kane editing by Keiron Henderson)

 

 

 

SINGAPORE, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Spot gold traded steady
on Wednesday, after buying related to options' expiration lifted
prices by more than 1 percent in the previous session, as
investors continue to watch the unfolding euro zone debt crisis.
     
      FUNDAMENTALS
      * Spot gold was little changed at $1,700.39 an ounce
by 0041 GMT, as heavy buying related to the expiry of COMEX
December options boosted prices in the previous session.
      * U.S. gold barely moved at $1,702.10.
      * The IMF on Tuesday beefed up its lending instruments and
launched a six-month liquidity line, throwing help to countries
with solid policies that may be at risk from the euro zone debt
crisis.
      * French President Nicholas Sarkozy has embraced a German
campaign for treaty change that could give European authorities
intrusive powers to intervene in the national budgets of
countries sharing the euro currency.
      * Spain's Treasury paid the highest yields in 14 years to
issue short-term bills on Tuesday, in a sign that a resounding
election victory for the centre-right People's Party on Sunday
has done little to soothe investors nerves.
      * For the top stories on metals and other news, click
, or
     
      MARKET NEWS
      * U.S. stocks fell for a fifth day in a row on Tuesday,
having lost more than 5 percent over that period as borrowing
costs in Spain hit another record high.
      * The euro held up remarkably well early in Asia on
Wednesday as investors took comfort in news the International
Monetary Fund had beefed up its lending instruments to help
shield some smaller countries from the euro zone debt crisis.


 

 

 

 

 

SINGAPORE, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower
on Tuesday, extending a decline of more than 2 percent from the
previous session, as worries about a debt crisis in both the
United States and euro zone spurred selling across markets.	
    	
    FUNDAMENTALS	

    * Spot gold edged down 0.2 percent to $1,674.79 an
ounce by 0009 GMT, off the four-week low of $1,665.88 hit on
Monday.	
    * U.S. gold also inched down 0.2 percent to
$1,675.80.	
    * U.S. lawmakers abandoned their high-profile effort to rein
in the country's ballooning debt on Monday in a sign that
Washington likely will not be able to resolve a dispute over
taxes and spending until 2013. 	
    * On the other side of the Atlantic, the debt crisis swept
closer to the heart of Europe as Moody's warned about France's
credit ratings outlook, despite a crushing victory of Spain's
conservatives in the election over the weekend.
  	
    * Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest
gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell for the first time in two
weeks, down 1.81 tonnes to 1,291.27 tonnes by Nov. 21. 	
        	
    MARKET NEWS	

    * U.S. stocks fell for a fourth session on Monday, as the
lack of progress in dealing with heavy debt both in the United
States and Europe further sapped investor confidence in
equities. 	
    * The safe-haven U.S. dollar stayed well bid in Asia on
Tuesday following a sharp pullback in global risk appetite as
the sovereign debt storm intensified on both sides of the
Atlantic. 	

 

 

 

 

(EURUSD)

 

 

 

Gold falls as dollar firms, fear sweeps markets

* Uncertainty in  euro zone  dominates market sentiment

*  China  silver imports slump in October, platinum imports jump

* Coming up: U.S. existing home sales, Oct 1500 GMT

By Susan Thomas

LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Gold fell as much as 1.5 percent on Monday, swept lower by a rising dollar and falls in other financial markets as worries deepened about government debt in Europe and the United States.

Gold has moved lower in tandem with riskier assets recently, bucking its traditional trend of rising in uncertain times. It could fall further in sell-offs in other markets, as investors liquidate gold positions to cover losses elsewhere as funding dries up.

" It's not behaving the way bulls would like it to behave," said Matthew Turner of Mitsubishi Corp. " There are enormous macro issues in Europe, the U.S. and China and we don't know how it will pan out. It's uncertainty on top of uncertainty, and a lot of people are standing on the sidelines."

As well as fears about  Italy  and other debt-strapped euro zone countries, attention is on the United States, where leaders are set to declare defeat in efforts to agree deficit-cutting measures. [nID:L5E7ML02J]

The dollar hit a six-week high versus a currency basket, as investors shifted from riskier  currencies  into the safety of the U.S. unit.

Stocks in Europe fell 2.1 percent to a six-week low, and are more than 17 percent lower for the year.  U.S. crude  fell more than $2.

Spot gold was down 0.8 percent at $1,711.30 at 1417 GMT, off an intraday low of $1,699.19. It fell 3.5 percent last week, its largest one-week decline in a month.

Technical analysis suggested spot gold could fall towards $1,687 an ounce during the day, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

On the chart, the 50-day moving average is almost crossing below the 100-day moving average, seen as a bearish technical signal.

Gold fared better on the crosses. It was up 0.2 percent in pounds at 1,094.57 pounds, and down 0.5 percent in euros at 1,270.14 euros.

U.S. gold was down 0.7 percent at $1,712.9 at 1409 GMT, off an intraday low of $1,698.7.

 

Gold could find some support from a World Gold Council's third-quarter demand report last week showing central bank buying reached nearly 150 tonnes, far above most analysts estimates.

" Certainly the report would have been very encouraging for gold bulls. Notwithstanding that, gold is suffering with risk assets. In the long run we'll see gold performing well but in the short term you'll get these anomalies," Ross Norman, of Sharps Pixley, said.

" You would think with the monumental news we're hearing out of Europe on the economic situation that gold should be running to fresh all-time highs. Gold has these bouts of behaving in a peculiar fashion, and this is one of them."

Gold can often benefit from times of economic or financial market uncertainty, because of the portfolio protection it can offer if inflation picks up and because of its immediate convertibility into hard currency.

In a further knock to market sentiment, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan said that a long-term global recession is certain to happen and China must focus on domestic problems.

 

INVESTMENT INTEREST

Still, investment interest in gold remained strong last week, despite the 3 percent price fall, as money managers upped their positions in gold  futures  and options.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, reported a rise of 3.631 tonnes from a day earlier to 1,293.088 tonnes in its holdings, the highest in more than three months.

The ETF witnessed an inflow of 24.422 tonnes last week, the biggest one-week rise in holdings since mid-August.

Spot silver led the decline in the precious metals complex, down 3.4 percent at $31.26.

China's October silver imports dropped 26 percent on the year, and the total inflow in the first 10 months of the year slumped 28 percent, the official trade data showed.

Platinum imports in October jumped 65 percent on the month to 6,340 kilograms, as platinum prices wallowed in discount over $100 to gold and attracted buying. Year-to-date imports of platinum rose 14 percent on the year to 66,680 kilograms.

Platinum was down 1.5 percent at $1,563.74 and palladium was off 1.7 percent at $591. (Editing by Alison Birrane)

 

 

Personal  opinion.. gold now at cross road,.. but given that daily chart is supported by sma 34, I am willing to bet that it will move up for today, at least until the US session comes about.

I just went in to long gold at 1723.74, stop loss at 1702.19, TP 1780.00.

Will see how it goes and probably will make a decision to close it this last afternoon.

More of my other trade at http://inlovewithgold.blogspot.com

 

 

SINGAPORE, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Spot gold fell half a
percent on Monday after its biggest weekly loss since September,
as investors remained cautious even after Spain's centre-right
opposition won a landslide victory in the election and is
expected to launch drastic austerity measures.
     
      FUNDAMENTALS 


      * Spot gold eased half a percent to $1,717.79 an
ounce by 0030 GMT, after a weekly decline of more than 3
percent.
      * On the chart, the 50-day moving average is near crossing
below the 100-day moving average, seen as a bearish technical
signal.
      * U.S. gold dropped 0.4 percent to $1,719.
      * Spain's centre-right opposition stormed to a crushing
election victory on Sunday and is expected to push through
drastic measures trying to prevent the nation being sucked
deeper into the debt crisis. 
      * After more than two months of talks, the U.S.
congressional deficit-reduction committee looked set to concede
failure, unable to bridge deep partisan differences over taxes
and spending going into the 2012 elections.
      * Money managers, including hedge funds and other large
speculators, raised their bullish bets in gold futures and
options to a two-month high during the week of Nov. 15, as
bullion prices held near $1,800 an ounce, data on Friday showed.
   
               
      MARKET NEWS
      * The worst week for U.S. stocks in two months ended with
traders mostly sitting it out on Friday as they waited for
politicians in Europe and the United States to tackle festering
debt problems.
      * The euro got off to a subdued start in Asia on Monday
after a short-covering squeeze late last week ran out of steam
and news of an overwhelming election victory for Spain's
centre-right opposition was greeted with cautious optimism.