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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/28/2011
By Peter LaTonaNovember 28, 2011PRECIOUS METAL PRICES ARE RISING THIS MORNING
Precious metals prices, along with the world equity markets are all rising this morning on rumors coming out of the European debt crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is denying that they are in talks to help Italy to the tune of 600 billion euros. Despite this denial, many analysts are still expecting that the Italian economic crisis could come to a boiling point, whereby the IMF has little choice but to act.
It is also being rumored that France and Germany might come together and form a “stability pact” to fight the debt crisis. The report is short on details, but one portion is drawing a great deal of attention,when it states that the European Central Bank (ECB) needs to become more aggressive in fighting the debt crisis. If European politicians can just agree to a comprehensive plan, then the ECB should jump in and help.
On Monday, there was speculation that Germany quickly denied, that Germany might float additional bonds together with the eurozone’s five other triple A rated nations, and then use the proceeds to help out Italy and Spain. Despite the denials, markets seem to appreciate this rumor and there is greater hope that the European leaders will get together and form a plan to save the euro currency.
Black Friday brought in record retail sales, and as a result, the U.S. stock market is set to open over 200 points up. This optimism goes against a report released Monday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The OECD is reporting that the global economy is slowing, the Eurozone is in a mild recession and the U.S. may soon follow. The OECD sharply reduced its forecasts for the world economy from 4.2% to 3.4% in 2011 and from 4.6% to 3.8% in 2012.
At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
- Gold price - $1,721.00 – up $33.40
- Silver price - $32.18 – up $1.12
Gold rises more than 2 percent on Europe hopes
Nov 28 (Reuters) - Gold rose to its highest in a week on Monday due to early gains in the euro linked to hopes that Europe will take bolder steps to resolve a crippling debt crisis, while a recovery in equities also prompted buying from some investors.
Spot gold rose more than 2 percent to hit $1,715.23 and was trading at $1,714.39 an ounce at 0834 GMT.
Gold hit a lifetime high of around $1,920 in September.
* Spot gold may end rebound at $1,716-technicals * Coming Up: U.S. new home sales 1500 GMT By Lewa Pardomuan
SINGAPORE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Gold jumped above $1,700 an ounce on Monday due to early gains in the euro and hopes that Europe will take bolder steps to resolve a crippling debt crisis, while a recovery in equities also prompted buying from a few investors.
Gold held on to its 1 percent gain even after the International Monetary Fund said it was not in discussions with Italian authorities on a financing plan, dousing speculation that it was preparing an aid package.
Spot gold added $25.44 an ounce to $1,704.59 an ounce by 0710 GMT -- its biggest daily gain in more than 2 weeks. Gold was still below a lifetime high of around $1,920 touched in September.
Sentiment has improved, said Dick Poon, manager of precious metals at Heraeus in Hong Kong, but the outlook for bullion depends on how Europe resolves the debt crisis and the economic situation in the United States.
" Everybody still tries to keep more cash on hand," said Poon.
Euro zone finance ministers will meet on Tuesday, with detailed operational rules for the region's bailout fund -- the European Financial Stability Facility -- ready for approval. The approval would pave the way for the 440 billion euro facility to draw cash from investors.
Moody's Investors Service warned on Monday the rapid escalation of the euro zone sovereign and banking crisis was threatening the credit standing of all European government bonds. U.S. gold futures rose $20.5 an ounce to $1,706.2 an ounce.
Other precious metals tracked gold higher, with silver rising more than 2 percent, palladium up more than 3 percent and platinum gaining nearly 2 percent.
Gold tumbled to its weakest in nearly a month last week after declines in equities blamed on the debt crisis in Europe prompted investors to cash in on bullion to cover losses.
But a rebound in equities helped restore gold's appeal, while strong retail sales in the United States over the Thanksgiving sale season offered investors some respite.
Also underpinning investor sentiment was news that central banks bought nearly 26 tonnes of gold in October, boosted by a purchase of almost 20 tonnes by Russia as well as buying from Mexico, Belarus and Colombia, data from the IMF showed. " For now, we are seeing a bounce in financial markets after the record retail sales this Black Friday weekend. Bargain-hunters are back to push prices higher with a little bit of optimism," said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
" However, for this rally to be sustainable, we need a long-term resolution of Europe's problems. Investors will be focusing on the meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Tuesday for more operational details of the bailout fund."
Asian shares gained on hopes Europe will come up with some concrete steps this week towards activating a euro zone bail-out that is crucial to relieving funding stresses on the region's troubled economies.
The euro rose on a report the IMF was preparing a rescue plan for Italy but pared gains after doubts were cast on the report, while the Fund later said there were no such discussions.
U.S. retailers racked up a record $52.4 billion in sales over Thanksgiving weekend, a 16.4 percent jump from a year earlier, as early hours and attractive promotions brought out more shoppers, an industry trade group said on Sunday.
SINGAPORE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Gold jumped 1 percent on
Monday as the euro rose on hopes Europe will take a bolder step
to resolve a crippling debt crisis and
after an Italian newspaper reported the International Monetary
Fund was preparing an aid package for Italy.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold added $15.00 an ounce to $1,694.15 an
ounce by 0044 GMT after hitting a session high at $1,696.29 an
ounce -- its biggest daily gain in nearly a week. Gold was still
below a lifetime high of around $1,920 in September.
* U.S. gold for September rose $11 an ounce to
$$1,696.7 an ounce.
* Prime Minister Mario Monti faces a testing week seeking to
shore up Italy's strained public finances, with an IMF mission
expected in Rome and market pressure building to a point where
outside help may be needed to stem a full-scale debt emergency.
MARKET NEWS
* Asian shares rose Monday and the euro gained on
expectations Europe will come up with some concrete steps this
week towards activating a euro zone bail-out fund that is
crucial to relieving funding stresses on the region's troubled
economies.
* U.S. crude futures rose more than $1.50 per barrel in
early Asian trade on Monday on optimism about the euro zone debt
after Germany and France explored radical methods of securing
deeper and more rapid fiscal integration among the bloc.
News I read seems to point that gold is still on the uptrend - would they hv flashed those news with hope that retailer like us move in to buy from them while they unload ? Not sure - just a wild guess.
Just stare at the weekly chart,..I will not be surprise if the price of gold fall below 1600 level. I am still bias on the downtrend. The push up in price last friday was quickly follow by retracement I may be wrong, but any possible surge in price , will give me the opportunity to short.
My thought.
Wall Street traded higher for most of the abbreviated session on hopes that " Black Friday," the traditional start of the U.S. holiday shopping season, would support major retailers. But gains were quickly offset by headlines out of Europe that further dented market sentiment. With less than 20 minutes before the close, all three stock indexes had turned negative.
Yields on Italy's debt approached recent highs that sparked a sell-off in world markets. Italy paid a record 6.5 percent to borrow money over six months on Friday, and its longer-term funding costs soared far above levels seen as sustainable for public finances.
High debt yields from major economies in Europe such as Spain, France and Germany suggest investing in the region is seen as being more risky.
" Trading remains cautious (since) the poor auction of German bonds mid-week raised concerns the debt crisis is spreading to Europe's core," said WhatsTrading.com options strategist Frederick Ruffy.
Adding to concerns, Standard & Poor's downgraded Belgium's credit rating to double-A from double-A-plus, citing concerns about funding and market pressures.
The Dow Jones industrial average finance/markets/index?symbol=us%21dji" > .DJI slipped 25.77 points, or 0.23 percent, to 11,231.78 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX declined 3.12 points, or 0.27 percent, to 1,158.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC shed 18.57 points, or 0.75 percent, to 2,441.51.
For the week, the S& P 500 fell 4.7 percent, giving back almost two-thirds of its gains in October, the market's best month in 20 years. The Dow was off 4.8 percent for the week and the Nasdaq fell 5.1 percent.
Pressuring the Nasdaq, shares of Netflix (NFLX.O) fell 6.8 percent to $63.86.
Entertainment companies with major consumer product units ranked among the gainers. U.S.-listed shares of Sony Corp (SNE.N) rose 4.2 percent to $16.96. Disney (DIS.N) shares rose 0.3 percent to $33.51.
Trading volume was thin, as expected, with just 3 billion shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq as the stock market closed at 1 p.m. The day after Thanksgiving is typically one of the lightest trading volume days of the year. (Reporting by Angela Moon Editing by Jan Paschal)
'Gold stocks bounce back and outperform silver in 2012'
Currency Wars - Russia Officially Adds 19.5 Tonnes Of Gold Reserves In October Alone
Given continuing currency debasement by the US and other debtor nations, the simmering currency wars of recent months may soon heat up. Read More
Bloomberg: Biggest Gold Hoard Ever Bolstering Bullish Bets From Traders: Commodities
Gold traders are more bullish after investors accumulated the biggest-ever hoard of the metal, driving them to protect their wealth ... Read More
Euro Crisis Spreading
but if its bonds are losing safe haven status the time may have come to think again. Read More
/
Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/23/2011
By Stephanie ChandlerNovember 23, 2011EUROPEAN COMMISSION REQUESTS EUROBONDS TO BE BACKED BY GOLD
Precious metals have remained steady from earlier trading as we head into Thanksgiving. News of the German bonds have put an even more negative light on the situation in Europe and stocks tumbled as a result. Chinese manufacturing activity was down in November, its lowest in 32 months, spurring deflationary fears and pushing the dollar higher making gold buying more expensive.
The news that Germany (along with other European countries) was unable to get needed loans has pushed the European Commission into discussing the possibility of eurobonds with gold collateral, along with pleas for the European Central Bank to lend the funds or start printing money in a last-ditch effort. Ross Norman of SharpsPixley, says, “If Europe sinks then it would impact all currencies and be a positive for gold.” Adding that he feels gold’s inverse correlation to currencies (especially the U.S. dollar) could disappear, setting new standards and causing a “considerable rally in the gold price.” Norman argues that if the eurobonds used gold as a collateral, it would ultimately be a positive for gold, saying, “It highlights the fact that it is the asset of last resort…gold is the asset that holds it value and it underlines gold’s incredibly important roll.
Mark Grant, a managing director at Southwest Securities Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, commented on the German bond crisis earlier today, saying, “This auction is nothing short of a disaster for Germany. If the strongest nation in Europe has this kind of difficulty raising capital, one shudders concerning the upcoming auctions in other European nations.”
At 4:00 p.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,695.00 – Down $9.40.
- Silver - $31.74 – Down $1.26.
* Gold set for second weekly fall
* ETF holdings hit record high
* Analysts cite central bank buys (Recasts lead, adds analyst comment, refreshes prices)
By Amanda Cooper and Clare Kane
LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Gold fell on Friday on a strong dollar as a disappointing Italian debt auction further heightened concerns over the Europe's ongoing debt crisis after a fruitless meeting of euro zoneleaders the previous day.
Global holdings of metal in exchange-traded funds hit a record high, but strong demand was not enough to support the price of bullion, which is set for its second weekly fall.
The euro slipped to a seven-week low against the dollar after a short-term debt auction sent yields on Italian debt soaring, with two-year Italian bond yields reaching a euro-era high of above 8 percent, despite the European Central Bank's presence in the market.
Talks by the heads of Germany, France and Italy on Thursday were overshadowed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel's determined opposition to a joint euro zone bond and a bigger role for the European Central Bank to deal with the crisis.
Demand from key consumers such as India was suppressed by the strength of the dollar, which pushed the price of gold in rupees close to all-time highs, thereby reducing a major source of support for the price.
" The main thing here is the dollar strength we've been seeing but also combined with the deleveraging that's continuing to take place where funds are reducing exposure across the board, that's also impacting gold," Ole Hansen, senior manager at Saxo Bank, said.
" We're getting close to a situation where the dollar seems to be a little bit overstretched on the upside and we could see a correction... Whether that will then be enough to drive gold back above $1,710, which seems to be the line in the sand now, obviously remains to be seen."
Further evidence of central bank demand for gold, together with a rise in investment in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds to a record high this week highlighted the ongoing desire for bullion against a backdrop of uncertainty.
Spot gold was last indicated at $1,689.10 an ounce at 1438 GMT, down 0.3 percent on the day, having recovered from a session low of $1,671.59.
ETF HOLDINGS HIT RECORD
Global holdings of gold in ETFs, one gauge of investment demand, have risen by more than 300,000 ounces this week to hit an all-time high of 69.978 million ounces, following hefty inflows into large U.S. funds such as the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest, and COMEX Gold Trust.
Central banks bought nearly 26 tonnes of gold in October, following purchases from Russia,Mexico, Belarus and Colombia, among others, bringing total official purchases to 230.25 tonnes this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
" The official sector continued to add to gold reserves in October, with a net purchase of 21 tonnes, according to wire reports citing IMF data. This brings our year-to-date tally to 356 tonnes, from 335 tonnes at end-September," wrote UBS strategist Edel Tully, in a note.
" Given gold's much more attractive levels in October, we would not be surprised if a similar trend of significantly more buying than is reflected by IMF data actually occurred during the month," she added.
China and India are widely believed to be prime candidates for adding to their gold holdings, given the size of their foreign exchange reserves.
Silver fell 0.6 percent on the day to trade at $31.58 an ounce. The silver price, which often moves in tandem with gold, is set for a near-9 percent fall in November.
The gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold, has risen for four weeks in a row to 53.93, its highest since early October, indicating gold's outperformance relative to that of silver.
Platinum was down 0.08 percent on the day at $1537.00 an ounce, while palladium fell 0.5 percent to $571.47. (Editing by James Jukwey)
* Spot gold neutral in $1,676-$1,710 range
* Coming Up: French consumer confidence Nov 0745 GMT By Lewa Pardomuan
SINGAPORE, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Gold edged down below $1,700 an ounce on Friday, heading for its second straight weekly fall, as the euro extended losses on growing fears the two-year-old debt crisis in Europe would drag on and eventually trigger a credit crunch.
Instead of rising in times of uncertainty, gold's safe-haven appeal was robbed by declines in equities, which prompted investors to cash in to cover losses caused by the crisis in Europe. A firm U.S. dollar also capped gains.
" It's really draining the liquidity and it triggers, let's say, economic crisis, a stronger dollar overall. It will be tough. Technically, it doesn't look that great," said Dominic Schnider, an analyst at UBS Wealth Management.
" In such an environment, for gold to really see firm price advances is quite challenging," said Schnider, adding that a positive outcome to the problems in Europe could be supportive for gold.
Spot gold slipped 0.51 percent to $1,685.79 an ounce by 0626 GMT, down from a lifetime high around $1,920 struck in September, with physical buying from jewellers also drying up.
U.S. gold for December contract fell $9 to $1,686.9 an ounce. Asian shares slipped on Friday as European officials failed to soothe investor fears that the euro zone's debt crisis could trigger a credit crunch if funding costs run out of control.
France and Germany agreed to stop bickering openly over whether the European Central Bank should do more to rescue the euro zone from a deepening sovereign debt crisis, while expressing their backing for Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti in his task of overcoming the country's massive debt burden.
The euro hit a seven-week low as it struggled to find any traction with markets seeing no end in sight for the euro zone debt crisis.
Physical gold buyers in Asia waited for prices to slip further, with Thanksgiving holiday in the United States also affecting liquidity.
" I think sentiment in the physical side is not that bearish, but the funds are more cautious because of fears of recession," said a dealer in Hong Kong, adding that a recent drop in prices had attracted purchases from jewellers.
" The funds are worried that their clients will redeem assets to get more cash on hand."
In top gold consumer India, the wedding season which is traditionally a moment for splurging on gold has yet to boost demand, with local futures prices still hovering near all-time highs due to a weak rupee.
India gold prices are likely to fall more than 3.5 percent from its peak after a 16 percent rally last quarter as investors resort to year-end profit-taking while tepid wedding demand weighs, a Reuters poll of banks and brokerages found.
India's gold demand, which recorded a fall of 20 percent in the September quarter, could rise in the last quarter and surpass the 1,000 tonnes demand mark in 2011, according to the World Gold Council figures.
SINGAPORE, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Gold inched down on Friday, heading for its second weekly fall, as investors cashed in to cover losses triggered by the euro zone debt crisis in other markets. FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold slipped 0.13 percent to $1,692.09 an ounce by 0021 GMT, down from a lifetime high around $1,920 struck in September. * U.S. gold for December contract fell $2.1 an ounce to $1,693.8 ounce. * The European Central Bank is looking at extending the term of loans it offers banks to 2 or even 3 years to try to prevent the euro zone crisis precipitating a credit crunch that chokes the bloc's economy, people familiar with the matter say. * Silver imports to India, the world's biggest consumer, would be marginally lower in 2011 from last year's 3,030 tonnes as traders are uncomfortable with prices ruling above 50,000 rupees per kg, a senior official at ScotiaMocatta said. MARKET NEWS * The Nikkei share average fell to a fresh two-and-a-half-year low on Friday after statements by German and French ministers convinced investors that euro zone leaders were no closer to a consensus on how to contain the region's debt crisis. * The euro hovered near a seven-week low versus the dollar in Asia on Friday, struggling to find any traction with markets seeing no end in sight for the euro zone debt crisis.
OK, paste wrongly,
here it is....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/309548-time-to-sell-gold?ifp=0& source=email_macro_view
victortan ( Date: 25-Nov-2011 00:56) Posted:
|
No, never sell.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Barclays-2012-forecasts-Gold-to-hit-$2000-silver-to-hit-$35oz-43949-3-1.html