Genting Sing
Last:0.755
+0.005
GenSp starts to move up again
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Okay, then I agree with sifu...
But nowadays, I don't trust " breakouts" anymore..
In days of old yes it works, but not now... lol...
alexchia01 ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 13:16) Posted:
No, I disagree with you.
I've been in the market long enough to understand the trend.
I'm just adjusting my position according to the market movement.
You may think this is being tossed by the market, but to me, the market is telling me something.
And I'm only acting according to what the market tells me.
The worst is to hold to one's affirmation when the market is telling you otherwise.
iPunter ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 12:59) Posted:
But it appears to me you do not have a firm stand on the major trend.
I will rather not be tossed around by the market... lol...
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Darkest before dawn
Calling the bottom
We also lower our TP from SGD2.13 to SGD2.06 (-3%).
Maintain Buy.
Above expectations but due to positive VIP win rate.
2Q11 core net profit of SGD206.3m (-38% YoY, -38% QoQ) lifted 1H11 core net profit to SGD541.3m (+25% YoY), 61% of our full-year estimate. The outpeformance was due to RWS’ 1H11 VIP 3.3% win rate, above the theoretical and our assumption of 2.85%. 2Q11 VIP win rate of 2.7% vs. 1Q11’s 3.8% coupled with VIP volume which fell 13% QoQ caused 2Q11 core net profit to fall 38% QoQ. RWS’ share of VIP volume was 52% in 2Q11 (1Q11: 59%). No dividends were declared, as expected.
Better outlook from 4Q11.
We tweak our 2011 earnings estimates higher by 7% on a higher VIP win rate assumption of 3.1% (assumes 2H11 VIP win rate of 2.85%) moderated by a lower 55% share of VIP volume (1H11: 55%) versus 60% previously. The lower share of VIP volume trims our 2012-13 earnings estimates by 4% p.a.. 3Q11 is expected to be slow due to the Hungry Ghost month and MICE events that favours MBS which would be offset somewhat by the F1 Singapore GP. That said, we expect VIP and mass market volumes at RWS to peak in 4Q11 due to the school holidays that favours RWS.
Too much bad news priced in – maintain Buy, but trim TP to
SGD2.06.
We are still bullish on RWS’ long term prospects, riding on the growing ASEAN economy, potential legalization of junkets and the establishment of Singapore as a Chinese Yuan hub.
In tandem with our trimmed earnings estimates, we lower our DCF based TP from SGD2.13 to SGD2.06. Although GENS lost market share in 2Q11, this risk is narrowing as both integrated resorts approach the 50%:50% mark in terms of GGR.
Genting Singapore – Summary Earnings Table
FYE Dec (SGD m) 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F
Revenue 49.5 2,753.3 3,246.1 3,464.5 3,716.3
EBITDA 14.9 1,422.1 1,601.6 1,662.8 1,800.9
Recurring Net Profit (40.0) 782.6 949.1 1,003.9 1,139.7
Recurring Basic EPS (Cents) (0.1) 6.4 7.7 8.2 9.3
EPS growth (%) (65.0) n.m. 20.4 5.8 13.5
DPS (Sen) - - - - -
PER n.m. 26.8 22.3 21.0 18.5
EV/EBITDA (x) n.m. 14.7 12.6 11.5 10.0
Div Yield (%) - - - - -
P/BV(x) 4.9 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.6
Net Gearing (%) 22.0 Cash Cash Cash Cash
ROE (%) (1.2) 16.9 17.0 15.3 14.9
ROA (%) (0.6) 8.2 9.1 8.9 9.6
Revision in Net Profit (%) n.a. n.a. +7.1 -4.5 -4.2
Consensus Net Profit (SGD m) n.a. n.a. 1,118.2 1,328.6 1,600.2
Genting Singapore’s (GENS) 1H11 results were above expectations on above theoretical VIP win rate at Resorts World Sentosa (RWS). Although RWS lost gross gaming revenue (GGR) share to Marina Bay Sands (MBS), at 49% in 2Q11, this risk is narrowing. We tweak our 2011 earnings estimates higher by 7% on higher VIP win rate of 3.1% but trim our 2012-13 earnings estimates by 4% p.a. on a lower 55% share of the VIP volume (60% previously).
No, I disagree with you.
I've been in the market long enough to understand the trend.
I'm just adjusting my position according to the market movement.
You may think this is being tossed by the market, but to me, the market is telling me something.
And I'm only acting according to what the market tells me.
The worst is to hold to one's affirmation when the market is telling you otherwise.
iPunter ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 12:59) Posted:
But it appears to me you do not have a firm stand on the major trend.
I will rather not be tossed around by the market... lol...
alexchia01 ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 12:56) Posted:
I'm in the red for this Bugger.
I long this counter last Friday thinking it would continue it's climb today.
This morning fall back down and climb back above my stop-loss price.
Now, forming a white candlestick from the support of $1.665, so there is still a little chance it could goes up.
I just hold my other half and see how price move next.
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Can see lower than 1.6.....
By the way, in current market, must set further stop loss as not to be flush away.... lol....
Got into this burger on Friday also. Holding. 5-day chart looks OK, right ?
alexchia01 ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 12:56) Posted:
I'm in the red for this Bugger.
I long this counter last Friday thinking it would continue it's climb today.
This morning fall back down and climb back above my stop-loss price.
Now, forming a white candlestick from the support of $1.665, so there is still a little chance it could goes up.
I just hold my other half and see how price move next.
iPunter ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 12:37) Posted:
Dropped like sheet still don't take profit on rebound?...
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Yes.. must stand firm and be decisive to cut when it break your expected pattern.... lol
But it appears to me you do not have a firm stand on the major trend.
I will rather not be tossed around by the market... lol...
alexchia01 ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 12:56) Posted:
I'm in the red for this Bugger.
I long this counter last Friday thinking it would continue it's climb today.
This morning fall back down and climb back above my stop-loss price.
Now, forming a white candlestick from the support of $1.665, so there is still a little chance it could goes up.
I just hold my other half and see how price move next.
iPunter ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 12:37) Posted:
Dropped like sheet still don't take profit on rebound?...
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I'm in the red for this Bugger.
I long this counter last Friday thinking it would continue it's climb today.
This morning fall back down and climb back above my stop-loss price.
Now, forming a white candlestick from the support of $1.665, so there is still a little chance it could goes up.
I just hold my other half and see how price move next.
iPunter ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 12:37) Posted:
Dropped like sheet still don't take profit on rebound?...
alexchia01 ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 12:20) Posted:
Sold half my Genting SP today because it hit my stop-loss price, but it immediately jump back up again.
So, keep my other half and see how price move in the next few days.
Although today is down, but there seems to be some support at $1.665.
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Dropped like sheet still don't take profit on rebound?...
alexchia01 ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 12:20) Posted:
Sold half my Genting SP today because it hit my stop-loss price, but it immediately jump back up again.
So, keep my other half and see how price move in the next few days.
Although today is down, but there seems to be some support at $1.665.
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Sold half my Genting SP today because it hit my stop-loss price, but it immediately jump back up again.
So, keep my other half and see how price move in the next few days.
Although today is down, but there seems to be some support at $1.665.
I oso think so. My opinion oni. No call whatsoever.
Isolator ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 10:47) Posted:
It will be going lower... |
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It will be going lower...
Wow, so shiork... lol...
louis_leecs ( Date: 15-Aug-2011 10:44) Posted:
| accummulate at tis price im rather put under pillo,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,sio sio every night,,,,,,,,,,,,,,sweet sweet every night,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,happy happy every night,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
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accummulate at tis price im rather put under pillo,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,sio sio every night,,,,,,,,,,,,,,sweet sweet every night,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,happy happy every night,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
initial past year's excitement and solid earnings for casino business is over..future earnings will not be impressive....another report....read in between the lines....no wonder those BBs are fighting..
Phillip SR 15/8: Genting reported revenue of $729m, -21% q-q -17% y-y. Net profit dropped to $243m, -20% q-q -22% y-y. Poor 2Q11 showing was mitigated by gain from AFS assets of $45.6m. 2.66% theoretical win rate results in adjusted EBITDA margin of 49.5%. Results were below expectations if Net profit meeting 43% of our full year forecast. • We revised our revenue estimates downwards by 10%, resulting in 20% decline in NPAT. To better reflect the tumultuous market conditions, the cyclicality of gaming sector and the limited earnings catalyst ahead, we attached a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple vs previous 15x. Both revisions resulted in fair value estimates falling sharply from $2.36 to $1.59. We hence downgrade our rating from BUY to Hold////.
15-08-2011 08:47:33
RESEARCH ALERT-Credit Suisse cuts Genting Singapore target to S$2.50
SINGAPORE, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse has cut its target price for casino operator Genting Singapore to S$2.50 from S$2.65 and kept its outperform rating.
STATEMENT: Credit Suisse has cut its 2011 net profit estimate for Genting Singapore by 8 percent and by 5 percent for 2012 to reflect lower revenue and higher depreciation charges.
Genting's second quarter results fell from the previous quarter and the same period a year earlier due to lower VIP win rate, Credit Suisse noted.
Genting's Singapore casino Resorts World at Sentosa made S$352.5 million ($290.9 million) in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in April-June, down 33 percent from the S$524.6 million reported for the year ago period. [ID:nL3E7JC24T] However, it said it remains positive over the long-term outlook for Genting, as it would benefit from rising tourist arrivals to Singapore and strong economic growth in the region.
Have you started your accumulation? Cheers and good luck.
New123 ( Date: 13-Aug-2011 20:18) Posted:
| Soon you will see it prices rises back to $1.80,$1.90 then $2.00 and above... Good chance to consider in accumulating some... |
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U r not the oni one who is waiting. Plenty ppls
r waiting, haha.
this time ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,may b,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,e,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,they gonna gun down it,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,may be,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,let say ................................$1.00 is goooooooooood accummmmmulate poit,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,im waitind
