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December 27, 2011 • 23:21:51 PSTWith the recent price drop precious metals over the past month, many people are wondering if the pm bull market is coming to an end... Read More
Last Updated : 28 December 2011 at 12:50 IST
How will precious metals fare in 2012?
CALIFORNIA (Commodity Online): How will gold, Silver and other precious metals perform in 2012? Year-end predictions by experts with decades of experience in buying and selling gold, silver and other bullion coins with the public almost unanimously point toward price increases. However, some of their opinions significantly vary on how high the increases will go in the next three months and a year from now, according to the Professional Numismatists Guild (www.PNGdealers.com), a half-century old, non-profit organization composed of the country's top rare coin and bullion coin dealers that conducted an opinion poll of its members.
PNG officials report their members' predictions on whereGold will close at the end of the first quarter in 2012 ranged from a low of $1,475 per ounce to a high of $2,155, with a mean average of $1,759.57 . Their estimates for gold at the end of 2012 varied from $1,450 up to $2,575 with the average $1,976.22. Predictions about silver in the first quarter varied from $24.35 per ounce to $57.50 with a mean average of $34.04, and from $23 to $130 with the average of $48.73 by the end of 2012.
" Thirty PNG member-dealers responded to the opinion poll that was conducted between December 16 to 23, 2011," said Jeffrey Bernberg, PNG President.
" These are professionals with an average of over 35 years each of frontline experience buying and selling American Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs, South African Krugerrands and other precious metals bullion and rare coins with the public. Obviously, no one can accurately predict the precise future of the commodities markets, but many people have turned to precious metals and rare coins as an important part of their portfolios. With the uncertainty of world economic events, it is more important than ever to deal with reputable, experienced dealers when buying or selling."
PNG members were asked where they think U.S. spot prices will close on Friday, March 30, 2012, and also on Monday, December 31, 2012. Here are the low and high estimates and mean averages of the dealers' opinions on silver, gold, Platinum and Palladium by the end of the first and fourth quarters of 2012.
Silver, end of first quarter 2012:Lowest prediction: $24.35 Highest prediction: $57.50 Mean average (30 respondents): $34.04
Silver, end of fourth quarter 2012:Lowest prediction: $23.00 Highest prediction: $130.00 Mean average (28 respondents): $48.73
Gold, end of first quarter 2012: Lowest prediction: $1,475 Highest prediction: $2,155 Mean average (30 respondents): $1,759.57
Gold, end of fourth quarter 2012: Lowest prediction: $1,450 Highest prediction: $2,575 Mean average (28 respondents): $1,976.22
Platinum, end of first quarter 2012: Lowest prediction: $1,335 Highest prediction: $2,050 Mean average (27 respondents): $1,602.64
Platinum, end of fourth quarter 2012: Lowest prediction: $1,400 Highest prediction: $2,200 Mean average (27 respondents): $1,818.83
Palladium, end of first quarter 2012: Lowest prediction: $515 Highest prediction: $1,012 Mean average (25 respondents): $694.03
Palladium, end of fourth quarter 2012: Lowest prediction: $622 Highest prediction: $1,525 Mean average (25 respondents): $815.65
December 27, 2011 • 17:32:20 PSTWe should decisively take out $2,000, but it should trade above $2,500. I think gold will have an even better year in 2013. Read More
* Investors cautious on mixed U.S. data
* Spot gold could fall to $1,596/oz - technicals
* Coming up: U.S. retail sales redbook, weekly 1355 GMT
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Gold edged lower on
Wednesday, tracking falls in industrial metals and equities, as
concerns about global economic growth weighed on market
sentiment amid thin year-end trading volumes.
Investors were cautious as the latest data out of the United
States sent mixed signals. Improving labour market conditions
lifted consumer confidence to an eight-month high in December,
but persistently weak house prices remain an obstacle to faster
economic growth.
Industrial metals, along with equities, eased in thin
holiday trade.
" There have been a couple of positive signs on the U.S.
economy, but it's hard to be hung up on them too much," said a
Singapore-based trader.
" The economic prospects are so dire that it seems to have
taken people's appetite away from commodities ,
especially in industrial metals, late in this calendar
year."
Although gold traditionally has a safe haven appeal, the
euro zone debt crisis is threatening the global economy, causing
a liquidity shortage in markets and forcing investors to abandon
their gold positions to cover losses elsewhere.
Spot gold edged down 0.3 percent to $1,588.29 an
ounce by 0307 GMT, on course for a third consecutive session of
losses.
U.S. gold also inched down 0.3 percent to $1,590.50.
Technical analysis suggested that spot gold could fall to
$1,596 during the day, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Investors are watching Italy's final bond auctions of the
year this week. Italian government bond yields edged higher on
Tuesday and were expected to rise further with investors growing
nervous that thin liquidity may complicate Rome's plans to sell
8.5 billion euros worth of debt on Thursday.
Asia's physical market remained lacklustre in the final week
of the year, as market participants have largely moved to the
sidelines, with premiums steady in Singapore and Hong Kong,
dealers said.
" There is not too much activity as prices circle around
$1,600 level," said Ronald Leung, a physical dealer at Lee
Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong, but added that buying from
China had been steady.
Chinese authorities said they have banned gold exchanges
outside of the two in Shanghai, after small gold trading
platforms sprouted all over the country during a gold rush among
Chinese investors.
China should buy gold to further diversify and protect its
foreign exchange reserves, the head of research at China's
central bank said.
COMEX gold may target $1560/oz on Tuesday
NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Gold prices may continue their downtrend on Tuesday targeting a previous low of $1560. Most traded COMEX gold February contract is trading at $1598.3, down $7.7 as of 5:58 AM CT, Tuesday.
Overall trend is weak. To watch out for will be the US CB consumer confidence for December to be released later in the day. Expectations are for a reading of 58.5
Since the market is coming from the Christmas festivities, volumes and activity may remain thin, especially with a new year fast approaching.
Resistance at $1600/$1610. Support at $1591/$1575
By Timothy OakesDecember 27, 2011CHINA-U.S. CURRENCY ‘WAR’ ESCALATING? Since the Mid-Day Gold & Silver Market Report, precious metals prices have remained relatively steady with some marginal gains. Between now and the new year, the Gold market “will see odd movements this week as many money managers have closed out the year, leaving the market with technical and headline-sensitive traders,” said Carlos Perez-Santalla of PVM Futures. The long-term outlook for Gold continues to be supported by continuing Gold purchases by central banks.
After a meeting Monday between Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Chinese officials, an agreement between the two nations has been reached to start directly trading their currencies with each other. This has been an ongoing issue between the United States and China as China views the current currency landscape as influenced too much by the U.S. dollar. The short-term effect is relatively limited to helping the current U.S. trade deficit with China, but the long-term effect could be a devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Georgetown University professor of international affairs Charles Kupchan said, “Chinese officials have made it clear that they believe the international economy is too heavily dominated by the dollar. … They believe, as part of China’s rise, that the international system should move to a more balanced structure. … With markets looking askance at both the euro and the U.S. dollar, investors in both China and Japan would find it attractive to trade directly.”
Another topic of conversation between Japan and China dealt with the role they would play in keeping tabs on North Korea during the transition to new leadership, which is not expected to become final until all North Korean political parties convene in February or March but is likely to be just a formality. The hope is that the leadership transition is peaceful. Chinese President Hu Jintao said, “China is ready to make joint efforts with all relevant parties, including Japan, to maintain peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and to achieve lasting peace, security and order on the peninsula and (in) northeast Asia.” The six parties are North and South Korea, China, Japan, Russia and the United States, which are resolved to mollify North Korea’s quest to further develop its nuclear weapons.
At 4:01 p.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,595.20 – Down $11.80.
- Silver - $28.70 – Down $0.44
Last Updated : 27 December 2011 at 11:25 IST
Where is gold and silver headed?
By Willem Weytjens
After the sharp drop in precious metals recently, many people (including me) wonder what will happen next withGold & Silver (& other PM's). To be honest, I don't know where gold will be in 1 week or a 1 month from now. However, there are some facts that are compelling, which can help us in our decision-taking process. The following is a bullish argument for Precious Metals.
Fundamentally, the outlook for precious metals has never been better: the crisis seems to be far from over, and a lot of money needs to be printed. This should bode well for precious metals. Also, the fact that we haven't had a " mania" phase in Precious Metals yet (perhaps we had some of it earlier this year with Silver) is also supportive for the PM sector.
Short term, sentiment in Gold is pretty bearish, as the charts from Sentimentrader show us: Sentiment is below the green dotted line. Those charts use a relative measure of extreme, that being 1.5 standard deviations from a one-year moving average. So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted line or below the green dotted line in the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, we're seeing a statistically extreme value.
However, back in 2008, Public Opinion on Gold was even more bearish, which should hold us back from concluding that we are at the bottom for Gold.
Public Opinion for Silver however, is at extremely bearish levels and has been bearish for some time now. Back in 2008, a similar situation occurred.
When we look at the weekly chart of the Gold Price during this bull market, we can see that price ALWAYS found support at the 50EMA (50 weeks Exponential Moving Average), except for 2008 when Deflation was the bogeyman. I marked all those events on the price chart, but also on the indicator on the bottom of the chart, which shows us the % difference between price and the 50 weeks EMA. Right now, price is very close to this 50EMA, meaning Gold might be in the process of bottoming.
The factors above tell us Gold (and especially Silver) might be in the process of setting a bottom.When we compare the Bull Market in Gold with the Technology Bubble in the 1990?s, we can see that Gold is still far away from topping…
Silver dropped below support at $30 and still has not managed to close back above it. Below current prices there is little support on the way down to the high teens (18-19$). We are still far away from a buy signal on both the RSI and MACD.
Gold could be in an ABC down wave, which could take it as low as $1,400.
Source: profitimes
/iReadiPost
Last Updated : 26 December 2011 at 19:05 IST
Gold and Dow: Prepare for extremes you have never seen in your life
By Hubert Moolman
I must admit that I do not prescribe to the 2012 end of the world or end of an era phenomenon however, my recent analysis suggests that 2012 could indeed be a very significant year.
I have been following a fractal (pattern) on the Dow chart for the last couple of years. I have written about it before, in a previous article. Basically, the Dow chart is forming a similar pattern to that which was formed in the late 60s to early 70s.
If this pattern continues in a similar manner to that of the late 60s to early 70s pattern, the Dow could indeed have a horrible year. Below, is a long-term chart of the Dow:
I have highlighted two fractals on the chart. I have also indicated five points on both fractals to illustrate how they could be similar. Point 1 on both fractals was the exact point at which the Dow Gold ratio made a significant peak. This is an important marker, and it gives credibility to the comparison of these two patterns.
It appears that the Dow is currently searching for that point 5. Point 5 could already be in, or it could be a little higher than the recent high (of 12 928). However, from a timing point of view, it is likely that we have reached point 5 already (a retest could still be possible).
If the current fractal continues its similarity to that of the late 60s to early 70s fractal, the Dow could have a horrible drop for most of 2012. I do not wish to speculate as to how low it will go however, if it stays exactly true to the past fractal (fractals do not always stay exactly true), it could drop to 6000.
Since my other analysis suggests that we are at the end of era (an era of the corrupt debt-based monetary system), I would really expect the worst-case scenario. That means that a drop to 1000 is very possible (not necessarily in 2012), even though it appears highly unlikely.
The Dow's inflated value, relative to the value of gold, was brought about by this debt-based monetary system. It follows naturally that in the event of the debt-based monetary system collapsing (it will eventually) the Dow gold ratio could go back to levels prior to the introduction of this system. This level could be anywhere between 0.2 and 1, in my opinion. Therefore, it is possible to have a Gold price of $5,000, with the Dow at 1000. I do not say that we will have these levels, but it is certainly possible. All I am saying is that we have to be prepared for extremes never before seen in our lifetime.
In addition, I have written before of how similar today's conditions are to that of the Great Depression. Based on that analysis, today's economic fundamentals certainly support the theory of a massive drop in the Dow, relative to gold and even the US dollar.
Now, if you think that gold cannot rise when the Dow has a massive drop as suggested above, then you should look at the following chart and think again:
I have compared the gold chart (top) from 1970 to 1975 to the Dow chart (bottom) for the same period. From the beginning of 1973, the Dow started a massive drop, while gold started a huge rally. Furthermore, the beginning of 1973 happens to be the same point as point 5 in the first chart.
From a short-term perspective, the Dow gold ratio is " overbought" , and could drop significant lower over the coming months. Below is a 3 year chart of the Dow gold ratio:
On the chart, I have drawn a possible blue support line, which now could be resistance. It appears that the ratio broke down from that support in July this year, and is now in the process of retesting that break-down point. The RSI seems to be at a three-year extreme, and suggests that upside potential from here, could be limited. If the ratio turns around now or closer to that blue line, it could fall very fast.
Gold appears to be at a very critical point of the bull market. See the chart below:
The gold price is currently holding just above the upward sloping line. Based on my long-term fractal analysis, this line is a critical area, and should price rebound form this line it could rally like it did in late 1979.
Source: hubertmoolman
/i came i read i posted/
Last Updated : 26 December 2011 at 19:05 IST
Gold prices risk falling to $1450/oz as long as it remains below $1625/oz
By Deepak Rangan
Since Gold is currently trading in a downtrend channel, we can safely look into some potential price levels gold will target it starts moving even lower. COMEX gold is trading in the $1600-$1610 zone.
The downtrend resistance line has proved to be very strong since prices turned south after hitting the trendline. As such, we can assume that the downtrend is firmly in place.
MACD is below Zero and the 14 day RSI is below the level of 50, indicating that market is till weak.
The most important fact is however that prices are currently below the $1625 support and also below the 200 DMA, a very strong combination. Hence, the $1625 area will remain crucial to Gold for as long a prices remain below this level, the risk of a $1450/oz gold will remain.
The next support is located around $1300 and should provide a major support to gold prices.
//i read i post
Fibonacci Supports Gold Market
gold-speculator.com
DECEMBER 23, 2011
Morris Hubbartt
Weekly Market Update Excerpt
posted Dec 23, 2011US Dollar Fibonacci Resistance Chart
Analysis
- Money is being created worldwide, but not through work and investment. I’m referring to money printing. Assets are being held at above market value with accounting techniques, to protect bank balance sheets. This new “state of the union” requires ongoing money creation to maintain itself.
- When the US government speaks of a strong currency, what they really mean is acompetitive currency. The European crisis is causing a rally in the dollar and negatively affecting gold.
- That very rally is making the United States even less competitive than it already is, and nothing significant has changed in regards to the US debt crisis.
- Use the dollar rally as an opportunity to build your position in the ultimate currency, which is gold.
- Do you believe that a crisis in Europe just solved America’s enormous debt problems? The US remains the greatest debtor nation in the history of the world, and the debt problem is worsening. The dollar’s fundamentals are unchanged, and it remains in a long term bear market.
- Take a good look at the above chart of the US dollar, and the Fibonacci resistance points. The dollar is at the 50% Fibonacci retracement line now. Traders are making a serious error betting large capital on a terrible fundamental situation like the dollar, and the technical situation is not very good either.
UUP (US Dollar Proxy) Chart
- I mentioned the black candle warning, and suggested that was opening the door for price appreciation in the metals and that is exactly what we got. I see the dollar headed much lower over the long term.
Gold Commercial Buying Chart
- Be careful about thinking you can outsmart the gold bull. Prices decline in every market, at times. This gold market has been hit with selling and fear, but it is a necessary cleansing process that puts gold into stronger hands.
- No gold investor enjoys this process, but gold should make new highs, many more times before this bull market ends. Gold is the ultimate long term winner in any debt crisis, and selling out because Europe’s debt woes are growing simply makes no sense at all.
- Looking at the above chart, you can see that in 2008, the gold price shot up about 33%, after the initial commercial buying. From there the low was violated by about $57. That technical failure was greeted with even more commercial buying. From there, the price soared almost 50% in just four months, hitting an all-time high.
Gold Fibonacci Support Chart
- $1540 is a very important price point for gold. It is a major area of support. There is potential for a double bottom in play, and it is accompanied by heavy commercial buying. Historically, such buying has had great impact on the gold price, carrying it substantially higher.
- Further, the upwards trending 290 day moving average is near $1540 now. The key Fibonacci 61.8% retracement line also sits near $1540. If this market does go down to test $1540, I see a strong chance it passes that test with flying colors.
Gold Super Highway Chart
- All signals look good to see gold $2330 in 2012 and likely by mid-year. I was becoming concerned that my superhighway price channel was too narrow, but this correction has made the channel I envision more realistic.
- Quite a number of gold investors are now shorting gold, and that is becoming a bit of a wild card. A short-covering rally is very possible as the tax-loss selling dries up and buyers begin to dominate sellers.
GDX Sentiment Chart
- In recent weeks I have used the COT report to highlight key support for the gold bullion market. In addition, I have now identified key sentiment indicator support for gold stocks.
- Note the times of extreme sentiment on gold stocks over the past several years. These extremes are present now, and have historically offered good times to buy gold stocks.
- Although there is no guarantee that history will repeat the same way as it has in the past, you do not invest in high risk gold stocks for guaranteed returns, but rather for the kind of possible reward that is offered now. Nobody should invest in gold stocks for “safety”.
- Gold stocks are all about taking big risks and hoping for even bigger rewards. The message of gold stocks sentiment now is to hold existing positions and buy new ones.
- As a group, my current sentiment indicator readings are the most extreme dating back to the days of the Lehman collapse in 2008.
GDX Versus Gold Chart
- Every Indicator I look at is saying that if the bottom is not in, it is very close to being here. The MACD on the above GDX versus gold ratio chart is phenomenally bullish, and projects a big upside move for the gold sector. It indicates that gold stocks will likely also outperform when the next breakout in gold occurs. Position yourself now for price appreciation in gold stocks.
GDXJ Fibonacci Arc Chart
- A week ago I pointed out the double bottom that was forming on GDXJ. That bottom now looks to be solidly in place. Note that the weekly chart MACD is completing a one-year decline and is close to turning up.
- The difference between an arc and a regular Fibonacci line is that the price can retrace to any price point along the arc.
- The Fibonacci arc defines a certain time point as more important than any particular price point.
- Fibonacci arcs can reveal possible turning points in time, and we are at an important Fibonacci arc point now. For GDXJ, the price at $26 is resting on the 3rd retracement arc. Significant rallies can begin from these types of technical set-ups.
Silver Fibonacci Chart
- The silver bottom may very well be in, but if it’s not, the above chart gives a clear indication of where the bottom will likely be found. I continue to see the likelihood that silver is ready to begin its next ascent, but the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line sits near $25, and that is a key buying area, if it happens.
- If it does happen, my plan is to dramatically enlarge my already-large silver position. I am holding most of my silver for triple digit targets (more than $100 per ounce).
- Volume patterns are textbook bullish. It is important for silver investors to be careful about using it only as a trading vehicle. Silver is also a key asset and your focus should be on getting more!
Merry Christmas to everyone. Thank-you for your patronage!
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Gold firms as upbeat data lifts euro, stocks
* Dollar retreats as appetite for 'risk' assets improves
* Euro zone debt crisis overhangs financial markets
* SPDR holdings drop 1 percent to lowest since early Nov (Updates prices)
By Jan Harvey
London, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Gold prices firmed a touch in Europe on Friday, tracking gains in the euro as upbeat U.S. data boosted interest in assets seen as higher risk at the dollar's expense, though volumes were light as financial markets wound down towards year-end.
Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,607.55 an ounce at 1310 GMT. The precious metal remains on track for its worst quarterly performance in more than three years, although it has climbed more than 13 percent this year.
" Markets have now moved into a pretty rock-steady price range, with most investors on the sidelines ahead of the new year," said Pradeep Unni, senior analyst at Richcomm Global Services. " Volatility too has declined significantly."
" In the immediate term it looks like gold will be associated with the other risky assets and may slip lower when we see a spike in the U.S. dollar. The safe-haven status of gold seems to have been tarnished a bit."
Positive jobs and consumer sentiment data from the United States sparked a retreat in the dollar -- which has been a beneficiary of safe-haven flows recently -- and a rise in the euro. Gold, which becomes cheaper for holders of other
currencies as the U.S. unit weakens, rose.
Stock markets climbed to a two-week high in Europe as nominally higher-risk assets benefited from the data, although they remain overshadowed by the
euro zone debt crisis.
Doubts remain over whether this week's European Central Bank tender of half a trillion euros' worth of cheap loans will be effective in easing the strain for troubled euro zone economies.
The threat of sovereign downgrades throughout the euro zone is still hanging over the euro, keeping sentiment towards the currency bearish heading into the new year.
" We still stress the vulnerability of precious metals to a tightening of euro zone money market liquidity which might result from the region's sovereign debt problems," Standard Bank analysts said in a note.
i
LARGEST GOLD ETF HOLDINGS DECLINE
The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, recorded an outflow of just over 13 tonnes on Thursday. Its holdings are on track to decline just over 26 tonnes this year, which would be its first annual outflow since the fund was launched in 2004.
ETFs issue securities backed with physical metal, giving investors exposure to the underlying asset price without having to buy, store and insure it. They proved a popular way to invest in gold after the credit crisis lifted interest in physical metal as a haven from risk.
However, inflows into the funds have slackened from the record levels they hit in recent years.
" The accumulated holdings of the 14 biggest gold ETFs fell to 74.909 million ounces from the all-time high of 75.902 million ounces set on 14 December, a decrease of 1 million ounces, or 31.1 tonnes," said HSBC in a note.
" Any further declines in gold ETF holdings may weigh further on prices," it added.
From a technical perspective, gold prices are likely to remain in a relatively narrow range ahead of year-end, with gains capped by resistance at the 200 day moving average near$1,621. Analysts at ScotiaMocatta said prices are set to remain supported above $1,590, the December 20 low.
Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.5 percent at $29.24 an ounce. Spot platinum was up 0.4 percent at $1,424.88 an ounce, while spot palladium was up 0.2 percent at $652.50 an ounce. (Additional reporting by Rujun Shen Editing by Alison Birrane)
Gold steady after upbeat US data Europe weighs
SINGAPORE, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Gold traded steady on
Friday, taking cues from slightly higher equities after upbeat
U.S. economic data encouraged investors, while the persistent
gloom hanging over the euro zone weighed on sentiment.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold edged up 0.1 percent to $1,607.89 an
ounce by 0036 GMT, on course for a weekly rise of half a
percent.
* U.S. gold was little changed at $1,610.20.
* The dangers facing Europe's financial system have
continued to worsen, Europe's recently created super-watchdog,
the European System Risk Board (ESRB), said on Thursday, as it
urged the euro zone to get its new rescue fund up and running.
* Spanish and Italian bond yields crept higher on Thursday,
even as Italy's Senate passed a vote of confidence in the
government of Prime Minister Mario Monti that put a final seal
on an emergency austerity budget.
* The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless
benefits hit a 3-1/2 year low last week and consumer sentiment
scaled a six-month high in December, bolstering views the
economy was gaining momentum, even though third-quarter growth
was revised down.
* Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest
gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 1 percent from a day
earlier to 1,254.57 tonnes, the lowest since early November.
MARKET NEWS
* U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, putting the S& P 500 on the
cusp of finishing out the year higher as another decline in
jobless claims pointed to further improvement in the labour
market.
* The euro barely budged in holiday-thinned Asian trade on
Friday, leaving it on track to end the year modestly lower
against the dollar as the European debt crisis looks set to last
for many more months.
by Peter LaTona December 23, 2011
GOLD, SILVER PRICES NEUTRAL
On a day when the “Santa Claus Rally” boosted stocks almost 125 points, the S& P 500 squeaked into positive territory for the year. One year ago, most analysts were predicting a very strong year for the stock market with an S& P 500 climbing over 1,350 points. Today, investors are happy just to get positive gains. The S& P 500 closed at 1,265.33.
This is the time of predictions for the coming year. It is no surprise that investor uncertainty is at a six-year high. The most certain prediction is one for continued volatility. About 38% of respondents to a poll by the American Association of Individual Investors said they think stock prices will remain flat the first six months of 2012. Only 33% said they expect prices to rise, which is below the historical average of 39%.
We can expect to see the same players driving the markets for a while.The European sovereign debt problem, U.S. debt problems, not enough jobs, slow growth and a political system in which the two parties cannot agree -- these can all wait until next week. For now, Happy Holidays from APMEX!
At 4 p.m., the APMEX precious metals prices were:
- Gold - $1,608.80 – Down $2.80.
- Silver - $29.15 – Up $0.04.
Should I buy gold or sell gold? Definitely buy!
: 23 December 2011 at 11:05 IST By Jeff Clark
It wasn't a fun week for gold. By the close on Friday, the metal was down 6.7% (based on London PM fix prices), the biggest weekly decline since September. It got downright irritating when the mainstream media seemingly rejoiced at gold's decline. Economist Nouriel Roubini poked fun at Gold bugs in a Tweet. Über investor Dennis Gartman said he sold his holdings. CNBC ran an article proclaiming gold was no longer a safe-haven asset (talk about an overreaction).
While the worry may have been real, let's focus on facts.Have the reasons for gold's bull market changed in any material way such that we should consider exiting?Instead of me providing an answer, ask yourself some basic questions: Is the current support for the US dollar an honest indication of its health? Are the sovereign debt problems in Europe solved? How will the US repay its $15 trillion debt load without some level of currency dilution? Is there likely to be more money printing in the future, or less? Are real interest rates positive yet? Has gold really lost its safe haven status as a result of one bad week?
And one more: What is the mainstream media's record on forecasting precious metals prices?
Our take won't surprise you: not one fact relating to the trend for gold changed last week. We remain strongly bullish.
So why did gold, silver, and related stocks fall so hard?
The reasons outlined in this month's BIG GOLD are still in play (the MF Global fallout, a rising dollar, year-end tax-loss selling, and the need for cash and liquidity to meet margin calls or redemption requests). Last Wednesday's 3.5% fall took on a life of its own, selling begetting selling, fear adding to fear (especially the case with gold stocks). None of these reasons, however, have anything to do with the fundamental factors that ultimately drive this market. Once those issues shift, then we'll talk about exiting.
So, should we buy now? Is the bottom in?
Let's take a fresh look at gold's corrections and compare them to the recent one. I've updated the following chart to include the recent selloff.
[How do I calculate the data? I look for the periods in every annual gold chart that represent a distinct fall greater than 5%, then measure the highs and lows.]
Our recent drop equals 12.5%. This isn't to suggest that the correction is over, but it does show that we've already matched the average decline, which is also 12.5%. This comes on the heels of the 15.6% fall in September. You'll notice something else: We've now had three major corrections (greater than 5%) in one year, the first time that's happened in this bull market.
The worst-case scenario would be a drop that matched the biggest on record, 27.7%. From $1,795 - the recent interim peak price - that would take us to $1,295. That wouldn't be fun, but a fall to that level would not by any stretch signal the end of the bull market, nor a fall into unprofitability for our producers. And it would represent a true blood-in-the-streets buying opportunity. After all, that's exactly what happened in 2006 and again in 2008, and in both instances Gold eventually powered much higher. The bears were wrong then, and they'll be wrong again this time, even if that extreme scenario were to come to pass.
Here's the updated picture for silver:
Silver's volatile nature really comes through in these data, which measure corrections of 10% or more. The recent decline tallies 18.4%. It, too, comes on the heels of a recent correction, a 35.2% tumble in September. The average of these declines is 20.3%, which would take our current correction to $28.22, close to last Thursday's price. Like gold, we've now had more corrections this year (four) than we've ever had in this bull market.
The worst plausible scenario we see for Silver in the near term would be a fall to $16.32, matching 2008's 53.9% drop. But you'd have to be awfully bearish to think it will plummet that far.
These data should actually give you some comfort. We've been here before. We've seen worse before. And yet, in every instance, gold and silver eventually climbed higher. So, unless you really believe that Obama and Merkel have brought happy days back to the world economy, precious metals will resume their ascent, and probably sooner rather than later. And when they do, you may well never be able to buy at these prices again. Those who were too scared to buy at $560 in 2006 and $700 in 2008 missed out on what were some of the greatest buying opportunities of this bull market.
Would I buy now? Given that each metal has already met its average decline, and that both have seen more corrections this year than any other, we're likely closer to the bottom than the top. So yes, I added an extra contribution to my favorite bullion accumulation program last week.
Either way, my advice is to spend a little more time watching the drivers for gold and a little less time worrying about the price. Until those things change, look for an entrance, not an exit.
Source: caseyresearch
December 22, 2011 • 17:32:50 PSTand I’m going to tell you & the listeners now, you haven’t seen anything yet compared to what you are going to see as gold moves toward $4,500.” Read More
Gold edges up after upbeat US data Europe weighs
* SPDR holdings drop 1 percent to lowest since early Nov
* Spot gold signals mixed - technicals
* Coming up: U.S. durable goods, Nov 1330 GMT
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Gold inched higher on
Friday in thin trade, taking cues from higher equities after
upbeat U.S. economic data encouraged investors, while the
persistent gloom hanging over the euro zone weighed on
sentiment.
Data showing a drop in U.S. jobless claims encouraged modest
gains in equities and commodities. The euro traded steady, on
track to end the year slightly lower against the dollar.
Concerns about the euro zone debt crisis kept investors on
edge. Spanish and Italian bond yields crept higher on Thursday,
even as Italy's Senate passed a vote of confidence in the
government of Prime Minister Mario Monti that put a final seal
on an emergency austerity budget.
Spot gold edged up 0.4 percent to $1,611.96 an ounce
by 0254 GMT. It was on course for a weekly rise of nearly 1
percent, snapping two weeks of consecutive losses.
U.S. gold inched up 0.2 percent to $1,613.90, headed
for a weekly gain of 1 percent.
Technical signals were mixed for spot gold as it is trapped
in the range of $1,597 and $1,618, and a move outside the range
will indicate its next direction, said Reuters market analyst
Wang Tao.
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest
gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 1 percent from a day
earlier to 1,254.57 tonnes, the lowest since early November.
The ETF saw an outflow of more than 25 tonnes in the past
two sessions, nearly half of its outflow so far this month.
" It's the year-end redemption," said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst
at Phillip Futures. " Even though gold suffered sharp declines
recently, the price is still up more than 10 percent this year,
so some investors are cashing in the profit."
Trading volumes were thin as many have closed positions
ahead of the year end. Prices could move higher in the next
month or two as investors return to the market after the
year-end holidays.
" Some investors will start building positions as current
prices are considered low, once we see a rebound in liquidity,"
said a Shanghai-based silver trader.
Spot silver rose 0.6 percent to $29.27 an ounce, but
was on course for a 1.5-percent weekly decline and a monthly
loss of more than 10 percent.
By Craig C. CalvinDecember 22, 2011EXPERTS SEE GOLD’S CONTINUED RISE PAYROLL TAX SNAG COULD SLOW ECONOMYAlthough the price of Gold experienced a drop in the latter part of this year, falling by 13% in September and by 8% last week, most experts are unfazed and see the precious metal rising again in 2012. Jeffery Wright, a senior research analyst with Global Hunter Securities, recently said, “What I am looking for is a Gold price of $1,800 an ounce in 2012,” adding that spikes to $1,900 or $2,000 are likely if Washington lawmakers continue to be at odds on how to address fiscal problems in the U.S. Wright said, “Once we get back into those discussions, there will be further pressure on the U.S. dollar and a refocusing on Gold as a safe-haven asset.” Meanwhile, metals and mining analyst Leo Larkin of S& P Capital IQ predicted that Gold could see a price of $1,900 in the coming year. He said, “Gold has been going up without interruption for 10 years.” Larkin said the current dip in prices as a “totally normal” correction, and he expects this upward trend to continue in 2012. Over the past 10 years, Gold has risen an average of 17% annually.
Analysts are warning that if Congress cannot reach agreement on extending the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits by the Jan. 1 expiration date, the end result could be a slowdown in the growth of the U.S. economy of nearly a full percentage point in the coming year, as well as a sharp drop in stock values. Nomura economist Lewis Alexander said, “If the payroll tax cuts revert to their 2010 levels and unemployment benefits are not extended, we think that U.S. GDP growth in 2012 could be depressed by roughly 0.8 of a percentage point, implying growth of just 1.5 percent versus our current forecast of 2.3 percent.” Earlier this week, congressional Republicans rejected the short-term payroll tax cut extension that was passed in the Senate after Republican-requested cuts were removed from the bill. The Senate has adjourned for the Christmas holiday, and the worry is that lawmakers in Washington will be unable to come to an agreement in January. Phoenix Partners Group’s Michael Block said, “If they really screw this up, we could retest those October lows below 1,100 for the S& P 500 index.”
At 4:14 p.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,606.90 - Down $6.70.
- Silver - $29.13 - Down $0.15.
By Ryan SchwimmerDecember 22, 2011
U.S. WARNED AGAIN MIXED ECONOMIC REPORTS RELEASED
U.S. stock futures and the U.S. dollar are rising this morning, after the release of the weekly jobless claims report. Economists expected a rise in claims, but the report showed that 4,000 fewer people filed for unemployment benefits last week. As expected, the number is still in line with a level consistent with an improving economy, and the 364,000 filings are the lowest since April 2008. Third-quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers also were released, reflecting a revision downward by 0.2%. A key measure of inflation was revised higher, and consumer spending was weaker than originally reported. Gold and Silver gave up mild gains after the positive unemployment numbers were reported.
Fitch Ratings placed the U.S. on warning again regarding the country’s AAA credit rating, though it said a decision likely wouldn’t come until 2013. “Federal debt will rise in the absence of expenditure and tax reforms that would address the challenges of rising health and Social Security spending as the population ages,” the company said in a statement. “The high and rising federal and general government debt burden is not consistent with the U.S. retaining its ‘AAA’ status despite its other fundamental sovereign credit strengths.” The agency said a “credible plan” must be crafted to solve the problem of a large budget deficit.
At 8 a.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,608.50 – Down $5.20.
- Silver - $29.20 – Down $0.08.
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