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February 26, 2012 • 13:18:40 PSTWhat this would be telling us fundamentally is that gold is now convinced beyond all shadow of a doubt that the near world-wide currency debauchment..... Read More 
施 罗 德 投 资 ： 料 升 30％ 金 价 年 底 可 达 每 安 士 2250美 元
（ 2012-02-25）
施 罗 德 投 资 产 品 经 理 卫 克 指 出 ， 黄 金 接 下 来 没 有 太 大 的 下 行 风 险 。 黄 金 价 格 可 能 会 在 美 国 和 中 国 的 增 长 变 得 强 劲 时 ， 才 会 稍 微 下 降 。
韩 宝 镇 ZAOBAO 报 道
黄 金 价 格 在 今 年 底 预 料 将 上 升 30％ ， 达 到 每 安 士 2250美 元 。 在 未 来 五 至 八 年 ， 黄 金 价 格 将 会 继 续 攀 升 。
施 罗 德 投 资 （ Schroders） 产 品 经 理 卫 克 （ Christopher Wyke） 说 ： “即 使 黄 金 在 （ 黄 金 的 ） 牛 市 的 后 期 达 到 每 安 士 5000美 元 ， 我 也 不 会 惊 讶 。 ”
他 昨 天 是 在 一 项 说 明 会 上 发 表 了 以 上 看 法 。 他 也 从 四 个 方 面 来 说 明 黄 金 的 牛 市 还 未 过 去 。
卫 克 指 出 ， 从 图 表 的 线 条 观 察 黄 金 价 格 历 年 的 走 势 ， 可 以 看 出 过 去 10年 ， 黄 金 的 价 格 是 在 上 涨 的 。 图 表 也 没 有 呈 现 抛 物 线 的 情 况 ， 这 显 示 黄 金 价 格 的 波 动 并 不 大 。
黄 金 的 供 应 量 也 没 有 因 为 价 格 上 涨 而 增 加 。 世 界 最 大 的 黄 金 生 产 国 是 中 国 ， 可 是 中 国 收 藏 黄 金 ， 却 不 出 口 黄 金 。
事 实 上 ， 中 国 还 进 口 黄 金 ， 近 几 个 月 的 入 口 更 有 所 增 加 。 有 许 多 中 国 投 资 者 对 股 票 市 场 和 房 地 产 市 场 感 到 失 望 ， 开 始 投 资 黄 金 。
此 外 ， 目 前 的 市 场 也 并 非 人 人 都 拥 有 黄 金 。 中 央 银 行 、 金 饰 等 都 对 黄 金 有 需 求 ， 过 去 几 年 一 些 国 家 中 央 银 行 都 开 始 购 买 黄 金 。
卫 克 说 ， 中 国 拥 有 1000公 吨 黄 金 ， 可 是 这 却 只 占 中 国 1.5％ 的 储 备 ， 这 个 比 重 仍 然 很 小 ， 因 此 中 国 预 料 将 会 继 续 增 持 黄 金 。
在 1980年 ， 黄 金 占 当 时 世 界 金 融 资 产 的 12％ 。 在 2011年 ， 已 被 开 采 出 来 的 黄 金 价 格 达 7万 亿 元 ， 只 占 世 界 金 融 资 产 的 3％ 。 卫 克 认 为 ， 这 个 黄 金 的 比 重 可 增 加 至 6％ ， 更 多 人 将 拥 有 黄 金 的 可 能 性 因 此 是 很 高 的 。
他 指 出 ， 黄 金 接 下 来 没 有 太 大 的 下 行 风 险 。 黄 金 价 格 可 能 会 在 美 国 和 中 国 的 增 长 变 得 强 劲 时 ， 才 会 稍 微 下 降 。
不 过 ， 即 使 如 此 ， 投 资 者 也 会 从 投 资 组 合 中 的 其 他 投 资 产 品 赚 到 钱 。 换 言 之 ， 当 黄 金 表 现 不 好 时 ， 股 票 市 场 就 会 有 良 好 的 表 现 。
至 于 在 投 资 组 合 中 持 有 黄 金 的 比 重 应 该 是 多 少 ？ 卫 克 指 出 ， 这 应 该 依 照 投 资 者 个 别 的 风 险 承 受 力 来 决 定 。 一 般 上 ， 投 资 者 可 持 有 介 于 5％ 至 25％ 的 黄 金 。
说 到 投 资 期 ， 卫 克 指 出 ， 由 于 黄 金 价 格 在 未 来 五 至 八 年 会 继 续 上 涨 ， 因 此 应 该 以 此 作 为 投 资 期 。
另 一 方 面 ， 他 昨 天 也 介 绍 了 施 罗 德 的 黄 金 与 贵 金 属 基 金 （ Schoder AS* Gold & Precious Metal Fund） 。 该 基 金 比 许 多 市 场 上 的 黄 金 基 金 表 现 来 得 好 ， 原 因 包 括 该 基 金 能 够 持 有 其 他 贵 金 属 ， 分 别 是 铂 、 银 和 白 金 ， 并 且 可 视 黄 金 的 表 现 ， 决 定 增 持 或 减 持 其 他 贵 金 属 。 由 于 银 的 波 动 大 ， 他 不 鼓 励 永 久 持 有 银 。
hanpt@sph.com.sg
Gold slips but notches largest gain in four weeks
* Gold breaks ranks with euro, ends week with 3 pct gain
* Silver eases after touching five-month high
* Platinum takes breather after strike-related gains
* Coming up: U.S. pending home sales Monday
By Frank Tang and Jan Harvey
NEW YORK/LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell
on Friday, breaking ranks with the euro, as sharp
gains from earlier in the week based on economic optimism and a
Greek bailout deal prompted investors to take profits.
Silver touched a five-month high after climbing past its
200-day moving average. Analysts, however, said it looks
vulnerable for a pullback after the sharp rise.
Bullion posted its largest weekly rise in four weeks, as
expectations for further easing by China and a near-zero
interest-rate outlook for the next several years boosted the
metal's inflation-hedge appeal.
News that Europe sealed a rescue package for Greece to avert
an imminent chaotic default lifted gold along with the euro and
other riskier assets. Other investors bought gold on fears of
more European monetary easing and lingering doubts about
Greece's ability to implement deep cuts.
" When the debt crisis showed signs of easing, people started
to look at gold's correlation with the equity market," said Min
Tang-Varner, securities analyst at investment research firm
Morningstar.
" It's a delicate balance about whether or not gold is
considered a wealth accumulation tool or a commodity," she said.
Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $1,771.36 an ounce
by 2:41 p.m. EST (1941 GMT), heading for a three-percent rise
for the week.
The metal is on track for its second consecutive monthly
gain after it flirted with entering a bear market in late
December.
Gold ignored the dollar's weakness, which usually supports
the metal. However, further losses in bullion were limited by
inflation fears as Brent crude futures rose above $125 a barrel.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled down
$9.90 an ounce at $1,776.40. Volume was 25 percent below its
30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed, largely in line
with its recent trading pace.
Gold has risen 13.5 percent this year. However, it appears
to struggle to gain further to approach its record at $1,920.30
an ounce.
" It is not our favourite position to go long gold at these
high levels," LGT Capital Management analyst Bayram Dincer said.
" The potential for disappointment, and price consolidation, is a
given."
SILVER SET FOR BIG WEEKLY RISE
Silver peaked at $35.70 an ounce, the highest
interday price since September 23. Its rally picked up momentum
after breaking through its 200-day moving average at $34.84 on
Thursday.
It ended down 0.2 percent at $35.26 an ounce.
Silver prices are up nearly 7 percent this week for their
best weekly performance since mid-January. It is set for a gain
of nearly 30 percent year to date, making it the best performing
precious metal so far in 2012.
The gold/silver ratio, the number of silver ounces needed to
buy an ounce of gold, dipped to 50 on Friday, the lowest since
late October, as silver prices outperformed.
" Silver looks like it is rallying more with gold than on its
own merit, in our view. This may leave it open for a pullback,"
said James Steel, chief commodity analyst at HSBC.
by Peter LaTona February 24, 2012
GREEK FALLOUT NIPS INVESTOR CONFIDENCE
There is an
unintended consequence of restructuring the Greek debt that has not received a great deal of attention. To put it simply, private bond investors are going to be more cautious and more demanding when they look at other sovereign debt. If they can be forced to take big losses in Greece, then they could be forced to take large losses in other debt-ridden countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland. It makes matters worse when this restructuring does not trigger the insurance payments (credit default swaps) investors purchased to protect these investments. It is a concern that going forward, private investors will either avoid sovereign bonds or demand higher interest rates to compensate for the higher risks. Either way, it sets up a scenario whereby already debt-ridden countries might have their borrowing costs significantly increased.
Gold and Silver prices moved sharply up this week. Most of this movement has been credited to the deal struck to restructure the Greek debt, thus opening them up for another bailout. However, there is some thought that this movement can be attributed to Greece getting out of the spotlight, allowing even more serious concerns to come front and center. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is sticking by its prediction calling for a
U.S. recession in the coming months. The European Committee is forecasting a recession in the eurozone. There is no easing of tensions between Iran and Israel, and
oil prices are going up. Greece has been getting a lot of our attention, but it might be the least of our worries.
At 4 p.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,773.40 – Down $11.90.
- Silver - $35.44 – Down $0.18.
Gold off 3-month high dollar weakness supports
* Eyes on G20 weekend meeting, EU summit next week
* Gold uptrend intact, any correction may be sharp
* Coming up: U.S. new home sales, Jan 1500 GMT
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Gold edged lower on
Friday, although a weaker dollar supported positive sentiment
after upbeat economic data in the previous session weighed on
the greenback and sent bullion to a three-month high.
Gold was headed for a weekly rise of more than 3 percent,
its biggest one-week gain in nearly a month, after rallying for
four straight sessions to push through a key technical level,
aided by macroeconomic data.
Upbeat data from Germany on Thursday pushed the euro to a
2-1/2-month high against the dollar, helping gold as a cheaper
greenback attracts buyers holding other currencies to
dollar-priced commodities.
" Technicals, along with the weakness in the dollar, lead to
gold buying," said Peter Tse, director at ScotiaMocatta in Hong
Kong.
Tse said technical indications suggested gold could test
higher levels, after it broke key resistance around $1,760 on
Wednesday, but some profit-taking selling could emerge ahead of
the Group of 20 finance ministers meeting on weekend.
" Beware that any correction could be sharp and deep, even
though the trend is still looking fairly good for the time
being," he added.
The euro zone debt crisis is expected to dominate the
discussions at the G20 meeting, before a European Union summit
on March 1-2.
Spot gold edged down 0.2 percent to $1,777.04 an
ounce by 0149 GMT, off a three-month high of $1,787.11 on
Thursday.
U.S. gold lost 0.4 percent to $1,779.10.
Investors will also be watching a second three-year
long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) allotment by the European
Central Bank on Feb 29, which is expected to inject nearly half
a trillion euros to banks.
Hopes of more monetary easing by central banks have helped
gold rally nearly 14 percent this year, as any injection of
cheap cash raises the inflation outlook, which polishes gold's
appeal as an inflation hedge.
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed
exchange-traded fund, said its holdings gained 1.209 tonnes to
1,282.796 tonnes by Feb. 23, the highest in more than two
months.
Spot silver lost 0.1 percent to $35.28 after a hefty
3 percent rise in the previous session pushed prices to $35.59,
a level unseen in nearly four months.
Spot platinum edged down 0.2 percent to $1,714.99,
off a five-month high of $1,731.50 hit in the previous session.
The metal is headed for a weekly rise of more than 5 percent.
Traders and analysts cautioned that platinum's recent rally
might be losing steam soon.
" I wouldn't read too much into it, as the size and volume in
trading of that metal has been fairly light. We have to wait a
few days to confirm that the rally can be sustainable," said Tse
of ScotiaMocatta.
By Craig C. CalvinFebruary 23, 2012ANOTHER 3-MONTH HIGH FOR GOLD ECONOMISTS WARY ON STEADY JOBLESS CLAIMS The Gold price reached another three-month high today, helped upward by the dollar’s weakness and a belief that central banks around the world will continue current loose monetary policies. Yesterday, Gold ended at its highest point for the year so far, and the upward trend carried through today’s trading. George Gero, vice president of RBC Wealth Management, said today that the number of outstanding futures contracts has increased from a month ago. Gero said, “We were looking for that ($1,800 an ounce) by June perhaps we may see if sooner.” In a note to clients, analysts with Commerzbank wrote, “The sovereign-debt crisis is thus likely to keep the market on tenterhooks for some time yet, which should benefit Gold.” Silver, Platinum, and Palladium joined Gold in ending the day up, as well.
Despite today’s encouraging report about the weekly number of new claims for unemployment benefits,economists are cautioning that it could just be an unseasonably warm winter that is pushing gains in the labor market. With March fast approaching, the jobs market for this month looks a lot like it did for last month. During January, a net 243,000 jobs were added, while the unemployment rate dropped by 0.2 percent from where it was in December. For last week, jobless claims were at 351,000, the same number as the week before. Although some point to these figures as an indication that the unemployment situation in the U.S. is improving, not all economists agree. Credit Suisse economist Jonathan Basile said that despite the improvement in employment numbers that is raising confidence among U.S. firms, it could still be too early to trust that a lasting jobs recovery is under way. Basile said, “We do know this is a very warm winter, and in recent months, there’s been a lot more construction jobs showing up than usual. These are the times of year when there are construction layoffs. I think we’re going to have to get through the March, April, May data to sort out whether this strength in jobless claims is a weather phenomena or a fundamental move.” Some other economists have predicted that state governments and the federal government are likely to continue cutting jobs.
At 4:05 p.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,781.50 - Up $10.20.
- Silver - $35.38 - Up $1.08.
Last Updated : 23 February 2012 at 12:35 IST
Buy Gold, Silver and Nickel: Angel Commodities
MUMBAI (Commodity Online): Gold, silver and nickel will be the hot commodities on Thursday at the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), an Angel Commodities technical report states while giving a strong buy signal on these three metals.
On the negative, both gold and silver could come under pressure on account of of uncertainty with respect to global economic growth coupled with a stronger dollar.
Meanwhile, unfavourable economic data from the Euro Zone front is indicating that the region may slide into recession. French Flash Services PMI declined by 2 points to 50.3 in February compared to 52.3-level in prior month. German Flash Services PMI fell to 52.6-level in February compared to 53.7-mark a month ago. European Flash Services PMI also declined to 49.4 in February when compared to 50.4 a month earlier
MCX gold is trading at Rs 28,729, MCX silver at Rs 57,328 and MCX nickel at Rs 987.80 as of 12:08 PM IST
Technical strategy recommendations for Thursday Feb 23, 2012
Source: Angel Commodities technical report
/i read i post./
(Posted: February 21, 2012)
With the Greek drama taking an intermission and the euro strengthening at the U.S. dollar’s expense, it looks like gold wants to move higher – and, quite possibly, it has enough oomph to break through strong technical overhead resistance as we approach and possibly exceed $1,800 an ounce.
As I have pointed out in past NicholsOnGold commentaries, it is important to distinguish the forces and players that drive gold prices in the short term – measured in days, weeks, and sometimes months – from those that determine the longer-term trend and average price over many years.
... more ...
By Peter LaTonaFebruary 23, 2012Jobless Claims Unchanged from Last WeekU.S. claims for unemployment benefits just came out and are unchanged from last week. They have held at the lowest levels we have seen since 2008. Economist polled by Reuters had expected claims to rise slightly from 351,000 to 354,000, so there is renewed hope the U.S. job recovery might be turning the corner.
The European Commission came out with a report today indicating that they expect euro zone economy will experience its second recession in three years in 2012. The larger European Union (EU) will stagnate as they warn the entire region is still encumbered by a vicious cycle of debt. Economist say that the fragile economic recovery the EU has experienced the last two years cannot withstand the high public debt, lack of investor confidence and high unemployment.
On an interesting note, silver was trading at $36.73 per oz in Mumbai, India today. One kilo of silver was trading at $1181 rupees, which is $36.73 in U. S. dollars. India is well known to be the world’s largest consumer of gold, but it is also the third largest consumer behind the U.S. and Japan. Last year India imported about 4800 tons of silver and this year forecasts are for over 5000 tons.
At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
- Gold price - $1,783.00 – up $12.70
- Silver price – $34.95 – up 63 cents
Gold pauses after rally
monetary easing hopes support
* Weak data from China, euro zone could prompt monetary easing
* Platinum rally may be short-lived
* Spot gold could rise to $1,797/oz - technicals
* Coming Up: Germany, Ifo business climate, Feb 0900 GMT
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Spot gold edged lower on Thursday, taking a breather
after rising to a three-month high in the previous session, although expectations of further
monetary easing after sluggish economic data from the euro zone and China continue to support
prices.
The enthusiasm in platinum waned, after supply concerns and chart strength pushed the metal,
dubbed by some as " the commodity du jour" , to multi-month highs in the past three days.
Data showed unexpectedly weak activity in the euro zone, while China's manufacturing sector
contracted for the fourth straight month, fueling anticipation that central banks will further
ease monetary policy to promote economic growth.
Gold benefits from loose monetary policy, as abundant credit keeps the opportunity cost of
carrying gold low. In addition, higher inflation outlook caused by a flood of cheap cash
burnishes the appeal of gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation.
" There is always a case to be made for gold, as long as the central banks keep taking new
easing measures or keep indicating they will take more new measures down the road," said a
Singapore-based trader.
Weak numbers out of China strengthened the case for further easing by Beijing, he added.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,774.69 an ounce by 0713 GMT, after three
consecutive days of gains.
U.S. gold inched up 0.3 percent to $1,776.50 an ounce.
Technical signals were also supportive of gold's strength. Chart analysis suggested that
spot gold could extend gains to $1,797 an ounce during the day, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao
said.
Scrap selling was spotted from Thailand and Indonesia, while buying from China and India
remained muted, dealers in Hong Kong and Singapore said.
PLATINUM RALLY MAY PROVE SHORT-LIVED
Spot platinum hit a five-month high of $1,726.5 an ounce earlier in the day, before
retracing to $1,717.24 an ounce, down 0.2 percent from the previous close.
Prices of the metal, mainly used in jewellery and automotive sectors, rallied about 5
percent this week on chart strength and supply woes in South Africa because of labour problems
at Impala Platinum, the country's second biggest producer of the metal.
The lack of forward borrowing and option buying suggest that Implats' production loss has
not caused severe supply shortage, the Singapore-based trader said.
Technical analysis suggested that platinum might be running out of steam in the short run.
" Bullishness on breaking the 200-day moving average may prove short-lived," said Tim
Riddell, head of ANZ Global Markets Research, Asia.
The breakthrough fuelled expectations that platinum could move towards $1,790, the centre of
the predominant trading range in the first three quarters of 2011, but it may be just completing
a broad cycle from the December low below $1,340, he added.
" What it means is that the current bullish expectations about breaking moving average needs
to be tempered and any slippage below $1,690 could trigger disappointment and a sharp
retracement to $1,570-$1,600 areas."
Gold pauses after rally on technicals, oil
SINGAPORE, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Gold prices were little
changed on Thursday, hovering below a three-month high hit in
the previous session when bullion rallied 1 percent on technical
buying, while high oil prices also lent support.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold inched down $1.60 to $1,774.19 an ounce
by 0013 GMT, off a three-month high of $1,781.40. It pierced
through a key resistance level at $1,765 on Wednesday.
* U.S. gold gained 0.3 percent to $1,776, retracing
from a three-month high of $1,783.4 hit on Wednesday.
* Gold diverged from the recent pattern of moving in tandem
with riskier assets, rallying 1 percent on Wednesday while the
global stock market eased on growth concerns after weak data
from the euro zone and China.
* High oil prices helped buoy the sentiment in gold. Brent
rose to a nine-month high on Wednesday on heightened tensions
between the West and Iran, after U.N. inspectors sent to visit
the country's nuclear installations declared their mission a
failure.
* Spot platinum was little changed at $1,719.49 an
ounce, just below a five-month high of $1,725.25 hit in the
previous session during which prices surged on chart
breakthrough and supply concerns.
* Impala Platinum, the world's second-largest
platinum producer, has warned customers that its April platinum
deliveries would be down about 50 percent due to labour problems
at its Rustenburg mine.
* Easing inflation and a revival in stock markets could dent
gold imports by India, the world's biggest consumer, pushing
shipments down by about 35 percent in value terms in 2012/13, a
government panel said on Wednesday.
MARKET NEWS
* Banks led U.S. stocks lower on Wednesday as the S& P 500
stalled near a 10-month-high after signs of weak European
business activity rekindled concerns about a recession overseas.
* The yen nursed losses in Asia on Thursday, having plumbed
a 7-month low against the greenback, while sterling also
struggled after minutes of the Bank of England February policy
meeting were more dovish than expected.
DATA/EVENTS
0900 Germany Ifo business climate Feb 2012
0900 Germany Ifo current conditions Feb 2012
0900 Germany Ifo expectations Feb 2012
1500 U.S. New home sales Jan
by Craig C. Calvin February 22, 2012
GOLD SETTLES AT THREE-MONTH HIGH
SKEPTICISM ON GREECE JUSTIFIED, PIMCO CEO SAYS
After a sluggish performance earlier in the day,
Gold settled at a three-month high this afternoon. With investors engaging in profit-taking in the wake of fading enthusiasm for Greece’s bailout agreement and the release of less-than-positive economic data from China, bargain hunters pushed Gold prices upward just before the end of afternoon trading. Gold’s rise was also helped by significant Platinum and Palladium gains, largely seen as a result of an ongoing South African strike. South Africa is a major exporter of Platinum to the rest of the world. Silver was the only metal to see a loss, ending the day slightly lower.
Amid renewed fears about a possible European recession that flared again today,
banks dragged U.S. stocks down. Weak economic growth in Europe has investors worried about both the debt loads of countries in the eurozone and the exposure banks might have to that debt. Steven Baffico, chief executive at Four Wood Capital Partners, said, “We’re very concerned around the markedly deteriorating credit fundamentals in Europe.” Fears over Europe have intensified with reports that the Greek financial bailout package could activate credit-default swaps in the region. In response to eurozone fears, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 27-point loss today, while the S& P 500 lost 5 points.
Economist and Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian said
investor skepticism about Greece’s bailout agreement is justified. Furthermore, he is recommending that investors make a reduction in their risk allocation based on that skepticism. El-Erian, pointing to geopolitical turmoil in such countries as Syria and Iran as well as Greece, warned of the possibility of quick and sharp market disruption. About the Greek debt deal, he said, “The market is being very rational in saying it’s a step but it’s not a big-enough step yet. Fundamentally, Greece is going to have to find a way to restore growth and restore competitiveness. If it doesn’t do that, private capital isn’t going to come in and if private capital doesn’t come in, you don't get the oxygen that an economy needs.” El-Erian expressed the opinion that Greek debt contagion risks and potential interruptions of Middle Eastern energy supplies represent a global economic risk, and that central banks will have limited options for responding to an escalation of any of those situations.
At 4:15 p.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,776.30 – Up $18.80.
- Silver - $34.32 - Down $0.18.
Gold holds near 2-1/2-week high Greece still a worry
* Spot platinum hits 5-month high at $1,693/oz
* China manufacturing sector contracts for 4th month in Feb -HSBC
* Spot gold to pierce into $1,766- $1,771 range - technicals
* Coming up: Eurozone Markit Mfg flash PMI, Feb 0858 GMT
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Gold edged down on
Wednesday from a 2-1/2-week high as concerns about Greece's
ability to implement an unpopular bailout deal balanced out the
gains triggered by the actual agreement, and slower factory
activity in China contributed to the fall.
Spot gold rose to $1,759.84 an ounce in early trade,
its highest level since February 3, before reversing course to
fall 0.2 percent to $1,755.16 an ounce by 0330 GMT.
U.S. gold was little changed at $1,757.
Cash gold staged its biggest one-day rise in two weeks on
Tuesday, climbing 1.5 percent along with riskier assets after
euro zone finance ministers gave the greenlight to the
130-billion euro bailout for Greece.
The euphoria quickly faded, however, as worries about
implementation resurfaced, and data pointing at a continuous
contraction of China's massive manufacturing sector added to the
gloom.
Gold has been seesawing in the range between $1,700 and
$1,760 since late January, tracking Greece's torturous path to
securing the bailout, while physical demand provided limited
support.
" We don't see a substantial amount of enquiries in the
physical market, either from the industrial or the jewellery
sector," said Dick Poon, manager of precious metals at Heraeus
in Hong Kong.
China's physical demand has slowed since the Lunar New Year
celebrations in January, and India's demand from its jewellery
sector is also declining, Poon added.
Technical analysis suggested that spot gold could break
above $1,760 and trade in the range between $1,766 and $1,771
during the day, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
INDONESIA SCRAP SELLING
The gains in gold prices over the past few days have
triggered some scrap selling, especially from Indonesia, dealers
said.
" Yesterday, the domestic prices in Indonesia were much lower
than the international market, and people were taking advantage
of the price disparity," said a Singapore-based dealer.
Gold bar premiums in Singapore dipped to $0.7-$1 an ounce
from previously $1.20, as a result, she added.
Spot platinum pierced through the 300-day moving
average and hit $1,701.5 an ounce, its highest in nearly five
months, before retracing slightly to $1,696.50.
The gold-platinum spread dropped to below $60 an ounce, its
lowest since late September, down from a peak near $220 in early
December.
Traders said the rapid gains in platinum could be a
combination of a breakthrough of a key technical resistance and
ongoing worries about supply in top producer South Africa.
" Platinum cleared the previous high hit in November, so some
long-positions holders could be adding to their positions," said
a Tokyo-based trader, adding that industrial demand for the
metal remained sluggish.
Gold rises over 1 pct on Greek deal uncertainty
* Gold rallies as Greek deal increases economic uncertainty
* Oil rally spurs inflation worries, China, Fed easing
supportive
* Silver up despite drop in Chinese imports
* Coming up: U.S. existing home sales Tuesday
By Frank Tang and Amanda Cooper
NEW YORK/LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Gold rose more
than 1 percent on Tuesday, breaking ranks with the
euro and equities, as a massive European bailout deal had
investors buying the metal amid doubts the bailout will work.
Gold rallied to its highest in more than two weeks after
euro zone finance ministers agreed a 130-billion-euro ($172
billion) rescue for Greece. Analysts said the deal bought time
for the single-currency bloc but left deep doubts about Greece's
ability to recover and avoid default.
Bullion has benefited from news that China recently cut its
required reserve ratio and committed to help the euro bloc. The
metal already received a strong boost after the U.S. Federal
Reserve last month said it would keep rates near zero at least
until late 2014.
" Gold gets a boost from the EU kicking the can down the
road," said Rob Kurzatkowski, senior commodity analyst at
optionsXpress.
" Not only does the bailout perhaps delay the inevitable
(Greek bankruptcy), but it also opens the door for higher
inflation across the euro zone," he said.
Spot gold rose 1.3 percent on the day to $1,755.81 an
ounce by 3:01 p.m. EST (2001 GMT), having earlier hit a high of
$1,757.40, the loftiest price since Feb. 3.
Bullion posted its biggest one-day gain in two weeks.
A near $3 rally in U.S. crude futures to nine-month highs
amid possible supply disruptions due to rising tensions between
Iran and the West also boosted gold's inflation hedge appeal.
U.S. COMEX April futures settled at $1,758.50 an
ounce, up $32.60 from Friday's close as traders returned after
Monday's U.S. Presidents Day holiday.
Analysts said gold outperforming the U.S. stock markets and
other riskier assets highlighted underlying inflation worries
and lingering doubts on Greece's ability to avert a chaotic
default in the long run. Both the S& P 500 and euro traded in the
negative territory.
However, gold could face strong headwinds as liquidity
appears to tighten for European banks soon.
The European Central Bank wants its second offer of cheap
ultra-long funds next week to be its last, putting the onus back
on governments to secure the euro zone's longer-term future.
GOLD-EURO CORRELATION
The positive 30-day log correlation between gold and the
euro has risen to near 0.5 up from 0.3 last week, indicating a
stronger positive link between the two.
" Gold is trading more like the other metals - as a risk
asset, rather than a risk hedge," Citigroup analyst David Wilson
said.
Even though gold has at times failed to rally in response to
euro zone debt fears, investors have snapped up almost as much
of the metal through exchange-traded products so far this month
as they did in the whole of January.
Holdings of gold in the world's major ETPs are set for a
rise of more than 600,000 ounces so far in February, marking a
second straight month of net inflows.
Silver was up 2.2 percent at $34.29 an ounce,
shrugging off a decline in imports by China.
Chinese imports of silver fell to 191.7 tonnes in January,
the lowest in three years. In 2011, China imported a total of
3,575 tonnes of silver, the lowest in four years.
February 21, 2012 • 15:27:36 PSTThe downside risks for the banking sector are still absolutely enormous & therefore the knock-on effect on gold is huge. Read More
By Peter LaTonaFebruary 21, 2012GOLD, SILVER PRICES HEAD HIGHER THROUGH DAY The headlines give the Greek bailout settlement credit for the big move in Gold and Silver prices today, and that was no doubt a factor. However, the wise investor might look deeper. These prices might reflect a world in constant turmoil, and this Greek package (which is not fully approved), might be but a small contributor. Oil prices are beginning to rise sharply as tensions between Iran and the West escalate. The Iranians know that the U.S. is certain to retaliate should they block the Strait of Hormuz. But would that deter them? How long will Israel sit back and wait? Rising oil prices are certain to threaten a fragile economic recovery should they continue to go up. Add to this that China just loosened its banking requirements, thus joining Europe and the U.S. in pumping more paper money into its financial system. None of these factors would lead anyone to predict falling Gold and Silver prices, so perhaps today’s movements do reflect more than just one global event.
At 4 p.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold – $1,760.70 – Up $35.80.
- Silver - $34.41 – Up $1.13.
Last Updated : 21 February 2012 at 18:00 IST
Tax free Gold- Singapore's new investment attraction
SINGAPORE (Commodity Online): Singapore has revealed that Gold will not be subject to taxes with effect from October 2012, thus seeking to make the country into a gold trading hub. The move is expected to attract investments in the area since the 7% Goods and Services Tax (GST) has been completely removed.
Many companies that operate in the precious metals vault business will now find Singapore an attractive choice of setting up their business. JP Morgan Chase & Co had already built a vault in 2010. Miners had earlier opted to mould and sell gold bars in Hong Kong (which does not tax gold) but with the GST being scrapped, they are expected to become increasingly interested in starting business activities in Singapore.
" We will facilitate the development of gold trading which can draw on Singapore's strengths as a financial and trading hub to meet strong demand for investment-grade gold in Asia. Investment-grade gold and other precious metals are essentially financial assets that are actively traded and are just like other financial instruments that do not attract GST. I will therefore exempt them from GST”, Finance minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam had said in the parliament last week.
by Ryan Schwimmer February 21, 2012
PESSIMISM SURROUNDING GREEK BAILOUT
MORE THREATS FROM IRAN
European stocks are trading flat this morning, and U.S. stock futures are pointing to a higher open for Wall Street. Eurozone finance ministers finally approved a second bailout package for Greece late Monday night,
but there is still pessimism surrounding the announcement. This was perhaps best explained by Fawad Razaqzada of GFT in London, who said, “There is a general feeling of relief that eurozone finance ministers finally sealed the deal with Greece, but concerns still linger.” Private bondholders of Greek debt have agreed to a 53% haircut, which is even higher than the originally-agreed-upon 50%.
Razaqzada also said that one thing investors will be keeping an eye on is oil after Iran blocked exports to Britain and France. He said, “…the action pointed to rising tensions between the West and Iran.” Mohammad Hejazi, the deputy head of Iran’s armed forces, said, “Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national interests, and want to decide to do that,
we will act without waiting for their actions.” This comes shortly after Israeli officials said they were still considering an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran is also continuing to threaten to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical tensions have historically been a key driver of precious metals prices.
Precious metals are trading higher, though they have come down from overnight highs. With the currencies market being the main driver for precious metals prices lately, Citigroup analyst David Wilson believes that “Gold is trading more like the other metals, as a risk asset, rather than a risk hedge. You’d have thought that all the macro issues would be supportive for gold, when looking at U.S. and European debt, and a slowing China, but it seems to be largely driven by the dollar/euro.” Citigroup announced that they see gold moving closer to $1,800 this year. Silver is currently tracking gold after reports that China imported less silver in January than in the past three years, however, Indian imports have increased.
At 8 a.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
- Gold - $1,746.40 – Up $21.50.
- Silver - $33.93 – Up $0.64.
