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Talking about petroleum, SPC is a good buy next week 28 or 29 Jan 08. Best buy if DJ declines this coming Fri nite. I reiterate again that SPC will announce its coporate result on 30 Jan 08. It definitely make tons of money over the last few Qtrs. The dividend pay out is substantial. Now is your choice and decision, but must rule out the global market plunge. No obligation hah, friends.
coming back to positive
Quotes:
Singapore shares closed sharply lower Tuesday but off their lows as nervous investors tried to price in a US recession that will likely drag the rest of the world with it.
With no lead from Wall Street overnight, investors took their cue from the meltdown in European bourses where France and Germany had their worst declines since just after the 9/11 terror attacks.
DBS Vickers regional research head Timothy Wong said "it's a bit too early to say" that this is the start of a bear market in Asia. "This is a correction - a deep correction. One after a rally of over five years," said Wong. "I believe this is an extended pause for the Asian markets before we see some stability return." The Straits Times Index closed down 50.60 points or 1.7 percent at the intra-day high of 2,866.55, off a low of 2,746.73.
Market volume was 2.8 billion shares valued at 2.9 billion Singapore dollars.
Decliners led gainers 751 to 147 with 868 stocks unchanged.
Wong said that the consolidation phase in the Asian markets started in August when the US subprime crisis began to unfold. A correction tends to last six to nine months, he said, after which he expects markets to recover. "This is not the end of the positive momentum in Asian equities," he said.
Bargain-hunters will eventually emerge but investors must "be aware that we are not quite out of the woods in terms of this period of heightened volatility," he said.
"There have been some jitters in the financial markets because of [subprime] concerns," said Paul Sheard, chief economist at Lehman Brothers. "Markets around the world have become a little bit nervous. Over the next week or so, we expect some calming influence to appear." Help may come from the Federal Reserve which is widely expected to cut policy rates by at least 50 basis points late next week to prevent the US from slipping into a recession.
Banking stocks were mixed with DBS Group unchanged at 17.50 Singapore dollars, United Overseas Bank 4 cents lower at 16.60 dollars and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp up 2 cents at 7.40 dollars.
Investors picked up select blue chips that allowed the STI to close off its lows. Singapore Airlines rebounded, rising 36 cents to 15.28 dollars, CapitaLand gained 2 cents to 5.42 dollars and Singapore Telecom gained 7 cent to 3.65 dollars.
Other property heavyweights were lower with City Developments down 20 cents to 10.82 dollars and Keppel Land 7 cents lower 5.67 dollars.
But Robinson & Co Ltd bucked the general market trend, rising 1.76 dollars to 6.22 dollars. A unit of Dubai-based Al-Futtiam Group, ALF Global, has offered 6.25 Singapore dollars per share for the retailer, valuing it at 537.1 million dollars
Singapore shares ended Thursday morning sharply lower after crude oil hit 100 dollars a barrel for the first time overnight and weak manufacturing data fanned fears the US economy could be headed for a recession.
The Dow Jones industrials fell more than 200 points Wednesday after the Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index dropped below 50 in December. A reading below 50 signals economic contraction while readings over 50 indicate expansion.
The US remains a key market for Asian exports.
At the midday break, the Straits Times Index was down 53.06 points or 1.5 percent at 3,408.16, off a low of 3,397.90.
Volume was 800 million shares valued at 746.1 million Singapore dollars. Decliners outpaced gainers 484 to 136 with 1,076 stocks unchanged.
A recession in the US will trigger a more severe slowdown in the domestic economy, prompting DBS Vickers to cut its rating for the Singapore market to 'neutral'.
"Mounting uncertainties from the US, a depreciating US dollar, high oil prices and inflationary pressures suggest rising risks to our earnings forecasts," DBS Vickers Securities said in a note to clients.
Singapore's economy shrank in the fourth quarter of 2007 as manufacturing growth shuddered to a near halt, official data showed Wednesday.
The city-state's economy contracted 3.2 percent over the three months to December compared with the previous quarter.
Property stocks extended their losses as the strength in residential prices began to taper off in the fourth quarter, sparking fears demand may weaken this year.
City Developments fell 38 cents to 13.72 dollars, CapitaLand was down 5 cents at 6.20 dollars and Keppel Land was 4 cents lower at 7.20 dollars.
Among banks, DBS Group was down 36 cents at 20.28 dollars, United Overseas bank gave up 24 cents at 19.44 dollars and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp was off 2 cents at 8.24 dollars.
Oil-sensitive transport stocks also retreated, with Singapore Airlines down 30 cents at 16.90 dollars and Neptune Orient Lines Ltd off 8 cents at 3.86 dollars.
Oil rig builders were lower although they are expected to benefit from a continued rise in oil prices. Keppel Corp was down 16 cents at 12.80 dollars while SembCorp Marine dipped 2 cents to 4.02 dollars.
Singapore shares are expected to open flat to lower on Thursday on a lacklustre lead from Wall Street, where investors digested retail sales and housing data suggesting a deterioration in US economic health.
The International Council of Shopping Centers said its index of retail chain store sales rose 2.8 percent last week, rounding out a sluggish December performance that puts merchants on track for a smaller sales gain than the trade group originally expected.
Still, there is some hope sales will rebound as shoppers start spending with holiday gift cards.
US home prices fell in October for the tenth consecutive month, posting their largest drop since early 1991. The record 6.7 percent slide in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index also marked the twenty-third consecutive month that prices either fell or grew more slowly than the prior month.
A spike in oil prices above 96 US dollars a barrel is also expected to make local investors wary.
Yesterday, the benchmark Straits Times Index rose 38.68 points or 1.1 percent to close at 3,473.21, after trading between 3,447.72 and 3,479.17 points.
Volume was thin at 1.3 billion shares valued at 1.0 billion Singapore dollars.
Gainers outnumbered decliners 510 to 177 with 1,036 stocks unchanged.
The index has risen for three consecutive trading sessions on thin volumes as fund managers window-dress their year-end portfolios.
CIMB-GK research head Song Seng Wun said that these movements may not be indicative of the overall market.
"But it does set the tone if the market ends on a positive note, although on significantly reduced volumes, for when people come back from holidays," Song said.
| S'pore enjoys steady flow of billion-dollar investments |
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Thu, Dec 27, 2007
The Straits Times |
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THE stream of huge deals flowing into Singapore this year is striking proof that investors still have plenty of confidence in the country.
Commitments were made in bricks-and-mortar fixed assets as well as research and development, with some global giants - such as pharmaceutical company Novartis, chipmaker Qimonda, Neste Oil and Renewable Energy Corp - ready to spend at least $1 billion each.
These mega deals will also create jobs and boost the Republic's reputation as a hub for petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals and renewable energy.
Such huge investments are typically based on long-term considerations and are unlikely to be affected by cyclical events, although economists say a severe global recession could still delay some of them.
Standard Chartered Bank economist Alvin Liew believes that as long as Singapore's fundamentals remain sound and long-term growth projections remain buoyant, 'investment commitments will be there and not fall off the cliff'.
ExxonMobil's Jurong Island petrochemical plant
EXXONMOBIL announced in September that it would go ahead with its second multibillion-dollar petrochemical complex on Jurong Island.
The new Singapore Parallel Train complex is estimated to cost US$4 billion (S$5.8 billion) - almost double the cost of ExxonMobil's first complex, which is also on Jurong Island.
The Train, which will be up and running by early 2011, will be equipped to turn crude oil components into petrochemical products that are new to consumers in booming Asia, said the oil giant.
For example, it will be the first location in the world where ExxonMobil will produce large-scale commercial quantities of a new-age material called Vistamaxx. This is a kind of speciality elastomer or rubber said to have unprecedented elasticity, softness and strength, with uses ranging from medical equipment to space-age fabrics.
ExxonMobil said 400 business and plant jobs will be created when the second complex is up and running.
Its total investment in Singapore now comes to around US$11 billion.
Novartis' cutting-edge drug facility in Tuas
SWISS drug giant Novartis announced its biggest-ever manufacturing investment - a US$700 million (S$1.01 billion) plant to produce protein-based drugs, known also as biopharmaceuticals.
The facility will be sited in Tuas, next to its US$180 million tablet-making plant, Novartis announced in October. Construction of the plant will begin next year and will create more than 300 jobs when it is completed in 2012.
The plant will carry out clinical and commercial manufacturing of products that can be used to treat such afflictions as cancer, asthma, arthritis and spinal cord injury.
The development is especially significant as the drugs the plant will produce - known as biologics - are at the forefront of the global pharmaceutical industry.
Industry watchers say biologics are set to be the pharmaceutical sector's main growth driver in the next three years.
World's largest biodiesel complex by Neste Oil
FINLAND'S Neste Oil is investing 550 million euros (S$1.15 billion) to build a biodiesel plant in Tuas, which will be the world's largest.
Construction will start next year and the plant will be completed in 2010, said the Helsinki-listed company in November.
The plant, which will convert palm oil into car fuel, will be able to produce 800,000 tonnes of biodiesel annually.
Biodiesels are a renewable energy source as they are derived from crops that can be repeatedly grown and harvested.
Also, Neste says greenhouse gas emissions from its fuel are 40 to 60 per cent less than those from conventional diesel.
It will most likely use locally produced palm oil for the plant, which will eventually employ 100 people.
Shell Eastern's petrochemical plant
SHELL Eastern Petroleum announced in April it will build a butadiene extraction unit to complement the US$3 billion (S$4.4 billion) petrochemicals complex that will be completed in 2009.
Though it did not reveal the cost of the unit, industry watchers say it could run into 'several tens of millions of dollars'.
Butadiene is used to produce polymers and chemical intermediates for making end-products such as synthetic rubber.
Shell's wholly-owned complex will span Pulau Bukom and Jurong Island.
When completed, the complex will employ about 200 engineers, skilled workers and semi-skilled labour.
Singapore-led group's Jurong petrochem facility
A CONSORTIUM led by Singapore's Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) will build a US$2 billion (S$2.9 billion) petrochemical plant on Jurong Island, JAC announced in October. Its partners include Swiss- based oil and commodity trading house Glencore and South Korean refiner SK Energy.
The facility will produce petrochemicals such as benzene and xylene, which are used in end-products like detergents.
Construction will begin next year and is expected to be completed by 2011.
Renewable Energy Corp's solar plant in Tuas
NORWEGIAN firm Renewable Energy Corp is building a $6.3 billion plant for making solar energy products.
The plant will have the capacity to make solar modules with annual output of 1.5 gigawatts - enough to power several million households, the firm announced in October. The plant, to be built in Tuas View, is expected to start output in 2010 and create 3,000 jobs.
Qimonda's wafer fab in Tampines
GERMAN chipmaker Qimonda will build an estimated $4 billion wafer fabrication plant in Tampines.
The plant, announced in April, will make Dram chips that usually go into personal computers. Production is expected to start in 2009 with 1,500 jobs created.
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Reminder to all that the new minimum bids start today. And today is only half-trading day. Don't get yourself caught.
Current Minimum Bids Schedule
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Current Forced
Order Bids
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Approved New Minimum Bids Schedule
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Approved New Forced Order Bids
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Security
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Price of
Security
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Minimum
Bid Size
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Security
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Price of
Security
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Minimum
Bid Size
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1. Shares, rights, options and other securities
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Below $1.00
$1.00 ? $2.99
$3.00 ? $4.98
$5.00 ? $9.95
$10.00 & above
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$0.005
$0.01
$0.02
$0.05
$0.10
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+/-6 bids
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1. Stocks (including preference shares), Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS), business trusts, warrants and any other class of securities not specified in this table
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Below $1.00
$1.00 ? $9.99
$10.00 & above
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$0.005
$0.01
$0.02
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+/-10 bids
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2. StreetTRACKS® Straits Times Index Fund (?STI ETF?)
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All
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$0.01
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+/-30 bids
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2. Exchange-traded funds
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All
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$0.01*
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+/-30 bids
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$0.001**
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3. Bonds, debentures and loan stocks
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All
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$0.001
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+/-30 bids
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Isn't year end traditionally a low season with most people taking off for holdiays ? Will the market climb back up ?
The trap is set up by the fund managers, stock analyst, stock broking houses....
The power of bargain hunters had pushed the STI back to green.
But take note that this may be a trap.
Quotes:
BT News
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Published December 17, 2007 
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STOCKS
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Watch for more of 'buy in anticipation, sell on news'
By R SIVANITHY
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT
LAST week's column raised the very strong likelihood that the major equity indices had risen ahead of Tuesday's US interest rate meeting, but could well drop sharply after the meeting, regardless of the outcome.
This is exactly what happened, but we hasten to add that it wasn't rocket science by any stretch of the imagination that we got it spot-on, since the 'buy in anticipation, sell on news' approach to trading stocks has been around since time immemorial.
And it's precisely because of its simplicity and widespread appeal that we can reasonably expect the same buy-and-sell pattern to manifest itself again in the not-too-distant future, possibly starting as early as this week.
We're talking here of the traditional year-end 'window-dressing' that more often than not occurs in the final days of each year when the Straits Times Index enjoys odd, late pushes designed to enhance its appearance and make fund managers' performance look better than it really is.
The main targets are usually SingTel, the banks, Singapore Exchange and Keppel Corp, though we'd also keep an eye on the Jardine group since in some cases - mainly Jardine Matheson and Cycle & Carriage - volume is thin, thus making it that much easier to achieve window - dressing goals.
So given that everyone expects the index to be padded before year-end, it is possible that some early birds might look to position themselves ahead of the expected activity by buying first and selling later as time passes and the chances of window-dressing increase.
Beyond that, a look through the numerous 2008 outlook reports making their rounds now tells one thing is certain - brokers, analysts and researchers are not as cocksure about stocks continuing to rise as they were 12 months ago.
Some houses have tried to couch their views in non-alarmist language, presumably to cushion the blow for clients, while others have gone for the jugular and spoken more bluntly about the consequences of the US slipping into a recession.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley fall into the latter category. Goldman called its 2008 outlook for the region 'Asia, interrupted', while Morgan Stanley's Dec 10 US Economics was entitled 'Recession coming'.
Goldman said (under a section called 'Honey, I shrunk the returns') that 'despite our confidence in Asia's secular story, US and China macro risks, optimistic earnings expectations and highest starting valuations in five years imply a difficult start to 2008'.
It added that 'even with the recent market selldown, the 12-month forward PE ratio for the region is about 15, up from the mid-13 times range at this time last year... we believe risks to Asian EPS growth are on the downside - 8-10 per cent growth is more likely than the current 16 per cent expectation'.
Morgan Stanley's views on an impending US recession have been detailed in this column before. Suffice to say that the US investment bank believes that the bad news has not yet been fully reflected in Wall Street prices.
In a Dec 13 Asia-Pacific strategy report, it said 'during bull markets, highly geared companies tend to outperform. However, with current credit market turmoil, highly geared stocks may suffer funding constraints, limiting their growth potential and reversing their outperformance'.
Falling in the camp that prefers to use more encouraging language is Schroders, which said that 'while the structural case for investing in the region remains compelling for investors looking at the long-term, the spectacular run (in 2007) warrants some caution'.
It went on to say it expects a shift to more fundamental-based investing as opposed to momentum investing, which has benefited 'many of the over-valued China names including shipping, shipbuilding and commodity stocks'.
DBS Bank, in the meantime, while positive about Asia's growth in 2008 - which is positive for equities - also said it is cautious for the first quarter as markets begin re-pricing a slower US growth outlook.
'We forecast solid growth in Asia but uncertainty, hence risks are rising. The US slowdown may enter a fourth year and financial market stress in the US and Europe threatens our forecasts to the downside,' said DBS.
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Quotes:
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Published December 17, 2007
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Analysts staying bullish on SGX in the new year
But wild card is whether the US goes into a recession and how Asia responds
By LYNETTE KHOO
(SINGAPORE) With lingering market uncertainties and repricing of risks, 2008 is probably going to be a less exciting year for the stock market, compared to the record-breaking run this year.
But analysts are betting that on the whole, share prices would remain on an uptrend.
'2008 would still be an okay year though it will not be as exciting as this year,' said Gabriel Yap, senior dealing director at DMG & Partners Securities. 'On a technical basis, the key support lines have not been broken.'
He added that 2008 would be a year where the great investors - those who are able to make profits even in volatile markets - would shine.
With current concerns over the US sub-prime fallout, a slowdown in the US economy and high oil prices, any market gains would be hard-fought, analysts said.
Most predicted that the market would be more choppy in the first half of 2008 before some stability sets in in the second half.
'The sub-prime mortgage crisis with its impact on the US economy is not going to disappear overnight and may still cause market volatility during the first half of next year,' said Yeo Kee Yan, retail market strategist at DBS Research Group.
With wild swings likely to persist, he recommended buying on weakness at the Straits Times Index (STI) level of 3,000-3,300 and selling into strength at 3,700-4,000.
UOB Kay Hian analyst K Ajith expects the STI to drift sideways in the 2,960-3,900 range at least in the first half next year given the market's uncertainty and a higher risk premium.
To recap, a liquidity-driven rally saw the STI breaking new highs in the first half of 2007 on the back of record property prices and surging Chinese markets. But the second half was dampened by credit woes arising from the US sub-prime crisis, sending the STI below the 3,500 level.
Last Friday, the STI closed 12.93 points or 0.37 per cent lower at 3,466.38, after credit ratings downgrade for US banking giant Citigroup, and Lehman Brothers' warning about further writedowns further sapped market confidence.
While destabilising factors remain, analysts believe that a doomsday scenario is unlikely.
'We are unlikely to see panic-selling. The Fed has shown flexibility to ensure that the US does not go into a recession and most people are looking at a 75 basis point cut to 3.5 per cent,' Mr Yap said.
Analysts said that the wild card really is whether the US goes into a recession, and how Asia responds. As of now, the Asia outperformance story looks intact, and Singapore's economy is still supported by strong domestic demand, with non-US export demand picking up the slack from the US.
'The strength of the domestic economy underpins our optimistic outlook on Singapore,' Merrill Lynch said, pegging its bottom-up STI target for 2008 at 4,426.50.
'We believe the recent market retreat represents an excellent opportunity to buy into the re-rating of Singapore.'
Analysts said that they like China plays, particularly consumer stocks that are catalysed by China's growth story and the Beijing Olympics 2008. Huge QDII (qualified domestic institutional investors) inflows are also expected next year as more such funds obtain Chinese regulatory approval to invest in S-shares.
'That's (QDII) going to spark tremendous revaluation of S-shares largely due to the large valuation gap between Singapore and China/Hong Kong,' Mr Yap said.
So far, S-shares are trading at an undemanding forward PE of about 14.5 times compared to A-shares and H-shares at 28.6 times and 18.1 times respectively.
Analysts recommended taking up some defensive positions next year but have mixed views on banking and offshore marine stocks. Although the fundamentals for these sectors remain strong, some analysts believe banks could see more turbulence before the sky clears, while the huge foreign exchange losses incurred by Labroy Marine and SembCorp Marine, reflecting the US dollar exposure among such stocks, is cause for concern.
With the market still pricing in slowing US consumption and rising inflation, CIMB-GK analyst Kenneth Ng believes that company-specific drivers will become more relevant than these broad sectoral themes. 'We see 2008 as a year for selective stock-picking, above broad sector bets.'
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Tks for the feedback. Cheers
This is in line with how US trade their counters too.
But then, I believe it will take some time to learn the cycle on how our market is going to move the price movement in intra-day trade.
Last time, for bluechip, at least I know that I am making a quick kopi profit with 2 price bid up.
Now, I should be taking around 1 week to observe first before doing intra-trade trade.
Must know the rule of the game first before you can win the game.
Tks Pinnacle.. guess those abv $5 and $10.. not sure how fast it will move after 24 Dec.
Another piece of important information for those playing contra and shorting:
Singapore Exchange Limited (SGX) announced the final changes to the minimum bids schedule for the securities market. The new schedule, which will be implemented on 24th Dec 2007 , seeks to improve trading efficiency and market liquidity.
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Products
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Existing Minimum Bids Schedule
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Products
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Revised Minimum Bids Schedule
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Remarks
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Price Range
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Bid Size (S$)
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Forced Orders (Bids)
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Price Range
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Bid Size (S$)
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Forced Orders (Bids)
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Securities
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Below $1
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0.005
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+/- 6
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Securities
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Below S$1
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0.005
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+/- 10
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The public consultation paper on 18 May 2007 proposed a forced order bids of +/- 20 bids. This will be changed to +/- 10 bids during launch.
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S$1 - S$2.99
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0.01
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S$1 - S$9.99
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0.01
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S$3 - S$4.98
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0.02
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S$5 - S$9.95
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0.05
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S$10 and above
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0.1
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S$10 and above
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0.02
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Exchange Traded Funds (except STI ETF)
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Below $1
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0.005
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+/- 6
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Exhange Traded Funds
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All
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0.01 or 0.001 as determined by SGX-ST
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+/- 30
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S$1 - S$2.99
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0.01
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S$3 - S$4.98
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0.02
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S$5 - S$9.95
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0.05
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S$10 and above
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0.1
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STI ETF
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All
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0.01
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+/- 30
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Bonds, debentures, loan stocks
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Below $1
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0.005
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+/- 6
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Bonds, debentures, loan stocks
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All
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0.001
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+/-30
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S$1 - S$2.99
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0.01
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S$3 - S$4.98
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0.02
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S$5 - S$9.95
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0.05
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S$10 and above
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0.1
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Thanks for the information.
Take note for those playing contra:
Trading on Christmas Eve (24 December 2007) and New Years Eve (31 December 2007) will be from 9.00 a.m. to 12.30 p.m.
The Opening routine will be from 8.30 a.m. to 9.00 a.m. and the Closing routine from 12.30 p.m. to 12.36 p.m.
