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You mean Q3 or Q1?
Ya...FV as of now...after the Q3 result, FV could go way below that!
Phillip Sec has a FV of 16c.
Hi...Courage Supports? Where are all of you??? Have you guys completed the analysis??? What is your conclusions??
Courage Q1 result is out!! As expected, EPS dropped 50%!!
Q2 - another vessel for intermediate survey
Q3 - 2 vessels for intermediate and special surveys.
Take note :"we do not expect freight rates to return to the previous excetional high levels schieved in 1H05"!!!
Courage Marine support, redo your forecast and let me know the fair value!!
Gone....sell on strength....16c is still strong, don't wait until result is out...may be 15 to 30 percent lower by then.
A 2nd hand fleet meant that the cost is cheaper. But then, maintenance cost will be higher. So there's no significant cost savings.
STX result is out, I don't want to go into detail since we are talking about courage marine here.
But, in general the following should applies to both company:
-Profit decline due to decline in freight rates and increase in bunker fuel prices.
- Freight rate likely to continue to drop for the rest of FY 06.
- Dry Bulk market expected to bottom out and only rebound in 07.
All these points are what I had pointed out earlier...don't buy into unknow future!
No surprise at all. It should head towards the FV that I forecasted. Cheap PER just got cheaper!!!! NO TRUE, after the Q1 result is out.
CourageMa and STX are both down. Broken 0.17 support. Heading towards 0.14-0.15. Cheap PER just got cheaper.
Buy only around 0.14-0.15 for a rebound.
Agreed. I like to buy small company with good growth potential. But apart from growing in size, profit growth is more important. The reason why I say CM is not a good buy now is that:
1. freight rate had gone significantly down compared to same time last year. You check the BDI..
2. Fuel cost is around 30% higher.
3. Huge Spare capacity, that is an indication that the freight rate may not go up in the near future.
4. It was projected that sometime in Q1 the freight will recover as activities are pick up...buy that didn't actually happen. And look like the rate had resume the down trend since Q2...
5. Cooling of economy in China...this could affect rate further.
The only positive sign exist is the addition of few ship to mitigate all the negative effects... but that will definitely not be enough.
So the Best is Yet to come. Will have to wait...hopefully no too long!!
Not necessary you need a Big Boy to swallow it up. Big Boy are big in size and they have to consider carefully before entering any stock because they are not as liquid as retail investors and cannot exit a stock like wat we retail investors can do at an instant.
Btw in any businesses, I believe that you need to be necessary 'BIG' to make it BIG. At certain times, being small has it advantages. Ultimately, at the end of the day, we are looking for growth companies. It takes a contrarian approach and philosophy to buy into such company. Happy trading.
The cyclical nature of freight rates and the sheer size of its float would "discourage" Couragema from sailing "courageously" again after its listing. If other shipping stocks with a longer track history and a bigger fleet size each can nolonger sail well, how "couragema" can Couragema become? If the stock has the potential of hitting 34 cents (when - in two years after its listing?),why wasn't there any recent statutory filing with SGX to show a Big Boy "couragema" swallowing it up?
Sure, it takes more than juz gut feel when picking stocks...
How you get the PE of 4.5 plus...base on FY05 earning. As I mentioned, that in stock we look at future. Recalcualted the PE using your forecasted FY06 EPS.
Ya...export in and out of China is going to be strong hah. But again many company have spare ships now...and they wouldn't sit there doing nothing....most likely they will shift focus to those routes that are profitable and CM will eventually get affected!!!
The increase in fleet size will not completely offset the drop in freight rate. You may not believe me so let wait for CM Q1 result and see how they perform..Good Luck.
A stock with PE of 4.5plus. Its reli so low. Hmmmm.... speaking of contrarian approach to investing, I think it reli takes more than juz a gut feel when picking stocks.
Fear not about the BDI cos it is likely to stablise. What we should be concern is about the exports of China to its neighbouring countries which represents the demand and the total fleet in the Asia Pacific region which represent the supply. Btw the low freight rate of BDI will be offset by the expansion of fleet size of Courage Marine with a current fleet of 11. Company is taking a strategic approach in acquiring more 2nd hand fleet.
I'm looking at valuation. Putting STX aside, the BDI is what we should be focusing when looking at Courage. CM profit will be significantly affect due to freight rate. Freight rate is something that we cannot ignore. Then the increase in fuel cost.....
I'm not say this company got no future, but the current price is definitely not undervalued!!
I also think this is a promising stock to hv. Globally, trade and consumption are growing, which will mean shipping will grow, irregardless the cycles.
Ya agreed with InvesToMan. I c potential in this company. Vested. I bought 30 more lots today.
joekoh u say the weak market will push up or down the price of any stock. Which it means it is a double edged sword that can glorify or degrate the standard of a company. Am I right to say that it can be 14cents, it can be 34 cents also.
Everything is still not confirmed yet. Courage Marine has already indicated that their 1Q06 profit will be lower than 1Q05 due to the freight rate so I doubt ithere will be any surprise. Remember Courage Marine has a lower capital because it operate 2nd hand vessels whereas STX operate mostly newly build vessels. Tats a vast difference between these 2 companies.
Undervalued based on FY05 earning...I agree.
But we are buying the future. Base on FY06 earning which may by a lot lower than FY05......I have doubts.