Longcheer   

China 3G licence

longcheer is suffering the "victorian" syndrome... ask forumner Victorian... he did an excellent exposition in the SPC thread..

seriously I remembered longcheer very well when it was trading at 33cts not too long ago...it dropped to incrementally to 26cts and I held on evening down... then it moved.. I chicken out at 35cts.. but it then moved on and the rest as they say is history... coming from this background, personally, I cannot understand ppl buying the stock even at 80cts..

 

continue to bleed , 0.83 now.

 

Still on downtrend.... be cautious

 

What's happening with the China play? The expenses are running away from reality. First Longcheer and now Biotreat. Hongguo next?

This are really exciting times.

 

feel sorry for longcheer holder, the price keep lau sai... in a fast-speed way... when it will stop? 0.70?

 

SGX doing nothing about the sudden down of 24% in a counter like Longcheer ?Others Counter when going up 15% to20% its start to question ?What are they doing ?Goodluck to all Longcheer shares holder .

 

In situations like this, its very important to have a stop loss rule. My rule of thumb is to sell off immediately if the stock suddenly falls 3-5% of its recent peak.

Its easy to say but difficult to carry out in practise because you're always second guessing yourself... hoping that the price will rise again.

 

Last friday, it is a long black candle with Gapdown of 18cents.
(Thur close: 1.18; black candle at high volume from 1.23->1.18).
(Fri open: 1.00; from 1.18->1.00->0.935 huge volume).

Needless to say, Coming monday, it would be another open price gap down from the close of 0.935.

When a growth stock suppose to perform underperform in a bad market condition, the situation is dire.

Aniwae, try steer clear in a warzone (...) till order returns.

 

Vested painfully. =(

Correct me if Im wrong, the next support is around 0.89, which could signal potential downside. 

Either way, I will be monitoring this counter very closely on Monday. Recovery can take days, weeks or months. I advise all not to be overly optimistic.

Unless you are a big risk taker, go with Singaporegal's advice.

 

This is the risk of investing in a growth stock which has widespread fund investors. Sometimes the sellings can be quite overdone. The sellings were by some foreign funds in the morning followed by some local houses probably forced sellings. The steep drop of 20% on unusually high volumes is out of syn with the projected down rating by DBS and I think some buying back may return after after the co. briefing on Monday. Longcheer is basically still a very profitable co. catering to the insatiable Chinese PRC appetites for the comm. industry, even so the co. has taken to successfully increase their sales overseas. Sometimes when the big funds sell they are following mandates to clear their clients'  positions irregardless of fundamentals. Expect over the weekend when perspectives are cooler the stock prices may recover to a more appropriate level nexy week.

 

Resistance @ $1.17~$1.09 based on candlestick Gap Down

Short term look very bad as many indicators pointed down.

High Volume Sell down yesterday and Break Long term up side trend line.

 

Bloodbath may continue next week! Stay away!

 

yes, the drop is too much. I agree. If China start issuing 3G license, how many percentage of market Longcheer will have?

 

thankz !!

Trading in the market is like this....there will be ups and downs. Most importantly, don't lose heart. I still got profits from the recent bull run to "tahan" this loss...

But seriously, I still think the drop is too much... monday shld see rebound if Dow behaves tonight. If when Biotreat announced the loss and lots of brokerage firms release sell reports, the drop wasn't so great.

Long term wise, if China start issuing 3G license soon...then it might not be so bad.

 

<...bought the stock on wed @ 1.22 when there was v sudden interest ....>

I almost made the same mistake. Was contemplating buying in @1.22 but if I recall correctly there was an article in the Business Times about some assumptions regarding profit growth made by analysts. I took it as a sign that the Mgmt was no optimistic of sustaining the sterling growth in the previous quarter.

I count my blessings I did not jump in. I've made a fair bit from this counter. Hopefully zujzuj, you'll have your breaks soon. Good luck!

 

various reasons for drop perhaps...primarily, stock dropped 'cos issued profit warning..

but it isn't just about the 5% drop in profit. brokerage houses issue reports based on full year targets. Longcheer is facing stiffer competition and decreased profit margins--so even tho they're selling more, they're earning less relative to previous years: 42% increase in sales, but only 22% rise in income. And competition getting tougher. Moreover, 40% rise in expenditure. Cash earnings approx S$24 mil compared to previous year S$129.4 mil. ie,dropped by some 80%.



a further idea of loss of profitability can be seen from their divvy yield. previous year div of 1.04c, special div of 3.12c. This year only 1.6c, no special div. So the untold story from these figures: rough estimation is a 60% decrease in profitability looking ahead. that's why your BBs are selling.

in addition to nervy market sentiment.  

 

a lot of people i know got burnt in this (including myself)...the drop was way too much compared to its reported statements.

If you look at it, a 5% decrease in Q profits resulted in a 20% fall in price ??

Anywayz, share my personally lesson with everyone...

I bought the stock on wed @ 1.22 when there was v sudden interest and lots n lots of buy up from 1.17 to 1.24. Checked the chart and it looks great. MACD cutting, Acc/Dis up as well, price crosses 2EMAs and a reversal looks like happening. The results was supposed to be announced last night and such sudden interest usu meant that the results will be great.

On thurs morning, I was expecting the price to continue gg up in anticipation of the results later at night. However, after a short period at 1.23, it went down n down to close at 1.18. I made a mistake -> instead of recognising the signs that the charts were telling me, cutting loss first as there wasn't the expected increase, I went to average down..hoping for a reversal later in the afternoon.

The rest they say is history......end up cutting loss and losing quite a bit today...

(hope my "experience" serves as a guide to everyone)

 

What happened here? I think this caught many people by surprise.

This drop occurs even during CD.... after XD, its price will be even lower.

 

You are very right, ihatcoy. Can you imagine, the correction is just around the corner, those counters who is on poor earning side, will be DEAD big time.

 

In good market sentiments, poor earning card would not cause much impact. Coz' everyone's optimistic, Dont' mind paying more.

But,

When it comes poor market sentiments
(right now what STI is;broadbase).
Everyone wanting to bail out, even at a discount (Gravity pull).

Suspect monday will even gap down further.
In fact, on thursday (1.23->1.18) is already a tinge of hint.