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Property and it prices - Outlook for 2008

Just to get some opinion from all ... I'm looking for a condo at the west and one of the agent quote me $700 psf for The Parc pool facing ... I'm understand newly launch price at around $900 psf ! Just wondering whether to grap now or wait some more ??

 

US Private Sector Jobs fell 693,000 (cut n paste)

In d past US (ALONE) is able to withstand world demand (now it cannot sustain), like bubble dots. com, asian financial crisis. this time round it cannot as it need to revise it own economy n also world economy

US jobless rate is update for Nov 08 from 533,000 to 584,000, while for Oct 08 from 320,000 to 423,000 and Dec 08 stood at 524,000, driving jobless rate to it highest level of 7.2% since Jan 1993, suggesting prolong year-long US recession is deepening.

The revisions brought it non-farm payroll in the four months throught Dec to 1.9 million job lost, so this 1st Q of 2009 job losses is going as bad as last Q of 2008.   

teeth53      ( Date: 11-Jan-2009 20:40) Posted: Bull run over for Singapore property. The Year of the Ox begins later this month but the bull run is already over for Singapore's property sector, described as the world's hottest market just two years ago. http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20090111/tap-finance-economy-singapore-property-06f3cb7.html Prices of private homes fell 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, following a 2.4 percent drop in the preceding period, according to the latest data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), the state agency responsible for land use planning. The fourth quarter marked the sharpest drop in home prices in a decade, the URA said. "Further contraction is on the way," analysts from the Hong Kong-based CLSA brokerage and investment group said in their outlook for the property sector. "We continue to expect the URA index to see an accelerated fall in the next quarter," they said. Local home prices have not fallen so far since 1998 when Singapore was stung by the Asian financial crisis that pushed the local property sector into a slump lasting until 2005, when the government approved the construction of two multi-billion-dollar casino complexes. By 2007, real estate giant Jones Lang LaSalle was describing Singapore's market as the world's hottest, and the city-state's property prices surged 31 percent overall.   teeth53      ( Date: 10-Dec-2008 20:37) Posted: Dec 2008 almost going and gone. Welcome 2009 which will contiune with it 1st Q...this cycle need to cut n cut staffs down to max d profit, may not be as companies can even go bust even after cutting as there isin't any business for consumer to spend as people's get less pay, less money, less job, less work, less to borrow, less in anything we every thing we do....it seem oredi starting....:(( Come this last 4th Q 2008 and into 1st Q 2009. In order for badly hit Companies to stay afloat, likely to start those dreadful action...Retrenchment property play is no exception as MTI has announed on Wed, that it's suspending it comfirmed lists for industires Govement land sales programs due to signaficant and dynamic changes in global economic conditions.

 

Bull run over for Singapore property. The Year of the Ox begins later this month but the bull run is already over for Singapore's property sector, described as the world's hottest market just two years ago.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20090111/tap-finance-economy-singapore-property-06f3cb7.html

Prices of private homes fell 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, following a 2.4 percent drop in the preceding period, according to the latest data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), the state agency responsible for land use planning.

The fourth quarter marked the sharpest drop in home prices in a decade, the URA said.

"Further contraction is on the way," analysts from the Hong Kong-based CLSA brokerage and investment group said in their outlook for the property sector.

"We continue to expect the URA index to see an accelerated fall in the next quarter," they said.

Local home prices have not fallen so far since 1998 when Singapore was stung by the Asian financial crisis that pushed the local property sector into a slump lasting until 2005, when the government approved the construction of two multi-billion-dollar casino complexes.

By 2007, real estate giant Jones Lang LaSalle was describing Singapore's market as the world's hottest, and the city-state's property prices surged 31 percent overall.

 

teeth53      ( Date: 10-Dec-2008 20:37) Posted: Dec 2008 almost going and gone. Welcome 2009 which will contiune with it 1st Q...this cycle need to cut n cut staffs down to max d profit, may not be as companies can even go bust even after cutting as there isin't any business for consumer to spend as people's get less pay, less money, less job, less work, less to borrow, less in anything we every thing we do....it seem oredi starting....:(( Come this last 4th Q 2008 and into 1st Q 2009. In order for badly hit Companies to stay afloat, likely to start those dreadful action...Retrenchment property play is no exception as MTI has announed on Wed, that it's suspending it comfirmed lists for industires Govement land sales programs due to signaficant and dynamic changes in global economic conditions.

 

It is seen coming sooner then expected...it bad news, but good news for stock this week.

Layoffs in S'pore set to rise

A wave of layoffs is set to hit multi-national companies who have Singapore offices. »Sony, Nomura

• More mid-career staff turning to teaching
• New warnings hint at even tougher times

• SINGAPORE
  •	Private sector economists drastically cut 2008's growth forecast
  •	MTI suspends Confirmed List for Industrial GLS Programme
  •	Labour chief says legislation to stop retrenchments is not the solution

 

Dec 2008 almost going and gone. Welcome 2009 which will contiune with it 1st Q...this cycle need to cut n cut staffs down to max d profit, may not be as companies can even go bust even after cutting as there isin't any business for consumer to spend as people's get less pay, less money, less job, less work, less to borrow, less in anything we every thing we do....it seem oredi starting....:((

Come this last 4th Q 2008 and into 1st Q 2009. In order for badly hit Companies to stay afloat, likely to start those dreadful action...Retrenchment

property play is no exception as MTI has announed on Wed, that it's suspending it comfirmed lists for industires Govement land sales programs due to signaficant and dynamic changes in global economic conditions.

 

Expecting shares price to trade lower, Propeties sales cool, and property and REITs rental is no exception...this cycle need to cut n cut staffs down to max d profit, may not be as companies can even go bust even after cutting as there isin't any business for consumer to spend as people's get less pay, less money, less job, less work, less to borrow, less in anything we every thing we do....all of us are going to visit recession as US will prolong it longer as usual...Very UsUsUal situation here for gobal economy to be vitalize it vitality. Consumer is waning and it has started in US.

It all started some time in 1Q/2Q of year 2007 when Bearstearn goes bust and housing loan start defaulting on rackless credit over rolling from companies to companies, lending and now bank got no business to lend to weaker bank, so there isin't any money to borrow as well even for the rich Arab oil px (SWF) starting to fall, where got more $$$ to give due credit to borrower or to make Bankers richer. EG is Lehman, DBS high notes..worthless and many US CEO forego bonus in million of US$.

teeth53      ( Date: 13-Oct-2008 19:45) Posted: (it has oredi started retreching....)

 

Two town councils invested S$12m in Lehman—related structured products

Channel NewsAsia - Wednesday, November 19

SINGAPORE: The financial health of two Singapore town councils remains in the black despite their investments in failed Lehman—linked structured products. Holland—Bukit Panjang and Pasir Ris—Punggol Town Councils invested a combined S$12 million using their sinking funds.

Going forward, the co—ordinating chairman of PAP town councils, Dr Teo Ho Pin, said future investments will remain diversified but will be on the conservative side.

Just like thousands of Singaporean investors who have lost money on failed Lehman—linked structured products, the Holland—Bukit Panjang Town Council may lose its S$8 million investment.

The town council invested 6.7 per cent of its sinking funds available for investment in Lehman Brothers’ Minibond Notes, DBS High Notes 5 and Merrill Lynch’s Jubilee Series 3 Notes.

It had invested another S$3 million in Pinnacle Notes Series 6, but this investment was unaffected.

For Pasir Ris—Punggol, its S$4 million investments in the Minibond Series 2 and 3 amounted to 2.6 per cent of its funds.

Based on the 14 PAP town councils’ latest financial statements submitted to the National Development Ministry, these investments amounted to 0.6 per cent of their total funds of S$2 billion.

Like many others, the town councils are anxiously waiting to see if the Lehman Minibond notes will be making dividend payments next month.

Dr Teo Ho Pin, chairman, Holland—Bukit Panjang Town Council, said: "If there is a credit event that occurs next month for the Lehman Brothers’ Minibond, then that will be a default and... there’ll be a loss on that investment."

Town councils can invest up to 35 per cent of their sinking funds in financial instruments like equities, corporate bonds and funds.

Holland—Bukit Panjang Town Council said while its investment income will be reduced as a result of the failed investment, its financial status remains in the black and improvement works will not be affected.

During a six—year period starting from 2002, the return on its investments totalled about S$24 million. As of March 31 this year, it also has a total kitty of S$118 million.

Over the last six years, the Holland—Bukit Panjang Town Council made a healthy investment return of more than four per cent every year. This is well above the average fixed deposit return of 0.9 per cent. With the investment income, the town council has been able to deal with the impact of inflation.

Dr Teo continued: "Our assurance to our residents is that the sinking fund is still intact. We have adopted a very prudent approach in terms of investing our funds.

"We have to continue to adopt a diversified investment strategy so we are able to achieve healthy returns for our town council funds, cyclical maintenance purposes and we have to balance between investment risk and returns."

Six other PAP—run town councils also have exposure to Lehman Brothers through their fund managers’ investment portfolio.

These investments total some S$4 million and account for less than one per cent of each town council’s funds available for investments.

The National Development Ministry said it has no plans to amend the investment guidelines it has put in place as town councils are in the best position to decide how to manage the funds.

Senior Minister of State for National Development Grace Fu told Parliament on Monday it was not practical nor desirable for the ministry to be overly prescriptive in enforcing the guidelines, which seek to achieve an optimal balance between reasonable returns and financial prudence.

Hougang and Potong Pasir Town Councils, the two that are managed by opposition MPs, have earlier said they do not have any investments related to Lehman Brothers products and their sinking funds are not affected by the failed financial instruments. — CNA/vm

 

 

SINGAPORE: Singapore government statutory boards are not exposed to the structured products and credit notes linked to bankrupt US investment bank Lehman Brothers.

Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam told Parliament that none are holding the Lehman Minibonds, Pinnacle Series, DBS High Notes Five, Merill Lynch Jubilee Series products.

Mr Tharman says four statutory boards — the Civil Service College, Singapore Land Authority, Infocomm Development Authority and the Professional Engineers’ Board — have invested in other credit—linked notes.

He says the notes suffered a 14 per cent paper loss this year, not very different from the recent global market performance.

The exposure of the four boards to such notes make up only 0.05 per cent of the total investment portfolios of all of Singapore’s statutory boards.

One of the statutory boards also has financial products linked to credit default swaps, but this makes up only 0.1 per cent of its portfolio.

Mr Tharman also says the government has advised all the statutory boards to maintain sound principles of diversification and risk management when investing.

— CNA/yt

 

and sti falling.

 

Recession induced by falling exports/demand and property prices is a laggard. Falling property prices is as certain as tax and death.

singaporegal      ( Date: 12-Oct-2008 21:11) Posted: I don't understand how Singapore can slip into a recession and property prices NOT be affected.

 

oil pump fall again as oil fall to US$55 B4 recovering to near US$60....

Others   /   The Rising Risk of Systemic Financial Meltdown

Painting a nice picture, S'pore will weather the storm, it does not effect the rich, so we will succeed in matter of fact. Most of the poor will be poorer due to d un-solve widering income gap. A few more millionaire will be made and economic report will again paint a rosy picture. Risk is get risker and only way to get rich is gamble. It is not going to get better, going to go turn ugly further down d road. To the wise, spare a thought and save some for rainy day. S'pore depending on India, China, EU (Gee...) and also alot on US to take in our factory products...rite. One down, not out, two to go..... Oh!! about M'sia coming election. U know, i know Y...M'sia is looking for a new mandate to gov.

teeth53      ( Date: 15-Oct-2008 20:54) Posted: Property is no exception, oil falling below US$70/- as investors is wary, turn cautious after each rallies. as US investors fear recession goes into prolong or deeper recession. teeth53      ( Date: 13-Oct-2008 19:45) Posted: Come this last 4th Q 2008 and into 1st Q 2009. In order for badly hit Companies to stay afloat, likely to start those dreadful action...Retrenchment, (expectation in lower earning as business / economy slow down or lost cetain business contract...oredi into technical recession), stop issue or cut bonus, cut overtime, cash is tight, belt tightening, bank borrowing drag it feet to lend. Long serving staffs...high salary go 1st (hope they can cut salary then chose the easy way...retrench). There can be few casualty, a few more victim and many unpaid bill effecting those poorer citizen.  Sub-prime credit (indeed) woes certainly has aggravated avalanche effected US housing woes. In stocks, it went into tail spin. In U.S, it closed a few big leading investment bank that lead to financial meltdown which G7, E.U. and IMF and world bank try to avert. It take time to do so... Singapore economy is very open to global trade exposure and to U.S. export, expecting lower earning come into play when compaies start reporting...and property play is no exception.

 

Properties market will turn sour and cool, esp highend market and not for HDB apartments, this is the work of sub-prime woes yhat turn it into a global recession, in turn it now revert back to US shore before reaching us....and so....

teeth53      ( Date: 15-Oct-2008 20:54) Posted: Property is no exception, oil falling below US$70/- as investors is wary, turn cautious after each rallies. as US investors fear recession goes into prolong or deeper recession. teeth53      ( Date: 13-Oct-2008 19:45) Posted: Come this last 4th Q 2008 and into 1st Q 2009. In order for badly hit Companies to stay afloat, likely to start those dreadful action...Retrenchment, (expectation in lower earning as business / economy slow down or lost cetain business contract...oredi into technical recession), stop issue or cut bonus, cut overtime, cash is tight, belt tightening, bank borrowing drag it feet to lend. Long serving staffs...high salary go 1st (hope they can cut salary then chose the easy way...retrench). There can be few casualty, a few more victim and many unpaid bill effecting those poorer citizen.  Sub-prime credit (indeed) woes certainly has aggravated avalanche effected US housing woes. In stocks, it went into tail spin. In U.S, it closed a few big leading investment bank that lead to financial meltdown which G7, E.U. and IMF and world bank try to avert. It take time to do so... Singapore economy is very open to global trade exposure and to U.S. export, expecting lower earning come into play when compaies start reporting...and property play is no exception.

 

Property is no exception, oil falling below US$70/- as investors is wary, turn cautious after each rallies. as US investors fear recession goes into prolong or deeper recession.

teeth53      ( Date: 13-Oct-2008 19:45) Posted: Come this last 4th Q 2008 and into 1st Q 2009. In order for badly hit Companies to stay afloat, likely to start those dreadful action...Retrenchment, (expectation in lower earning as business / economy slow down or lost cetain business contract...oredi into technical recession), stop issue or cut bonus, cut overtime, cash is tight, belt tightening, bank borrowing drag it feet to lend. Long serving staffs...high salary go 1st (hope they can cut salary then chose the easy way...retrench). There can be few casualty, a few more victim and many unpaid bill effecting those poorer citizen.  Sub-prime credit (indeed) woes certainly has aggravated avalanche effected US housing woes. In stocks, it went into tail spin. In U.S, it closed a few big leading investment bank that lead to financial meltdown which G7, E.U. and IMF and world bank try to avert. It take time to do so... Singapore economy is very open to global trade exposure and to U.S. export, expecting lower earning come into play when compaies start reporting...and property play is no exception. HLJHLJ      ( Date: 13-Oct-2008 00:54) Posted: Your are right. Another thing is that developers can get stretched as well. However, this round, developers are more ready. They have more cash now. Hope some of them will lelong some units out next yr. LOL. I really do not wish sole bread winners to lose their jobs and have to sell their only house. Quite poor thing. Hope they do not over-commit and sell at the mercy of the market.

 

There are quite a number of postings on various properties, with very good descriptions, and analysis.  With  this enomous financial crises still looming around UNITED STATES, and spreading to Erope, Russia, Asia, etc.  It appears it is still finding the balancing, and in the subsequent events that will open up and we may witness more and more business failures and more retrenchments, and resulting in the number of jobless increasing by the day in the coming months.  Having got some ideas of failures in BANKING/BUSINESES so far, has any body got any good and forward-looking ideas  to solve this great financial crisses of this 21st century yet, or that most of us are still in the dark-tunnel groping in the dark  not knowing wich it the correct way to take to proceed to the exit point/points from DARKNESS TO LIGHT.

Please share your ideas; as for me  THE MARKET STILL WILL BE FLUCTUATING. Now ,may be it is wiser to keep some funds to invest in good times, when opportunies presented.

Thanks.

 

 

 

 

 

Come this last 4th Q 2008 and into 1st Q 2009. In order for badly hit Companies to stay afloat, likely to start those dreadful action...Retrenchment, (expectation in lower earning as business / economy slow down or lost cetain business contract...oredi into technical recession), stop issue or cut bonus, cut overtime, cash is tight, belt tightening, bank borrowing drag it feet to lend. Long serving staffs...high salary go 1st (hope they can cut salary then chose the easy way...retrench). There can be few casualty, a few more victim and many unpaid bill effecting those poorer citizen. 

Sub-prime credit (indeed) woes certainly has aggravated avalanche effected US housing woes. In stocks, it went into tail spin. In U.S, it closed a few big leading investment bank that lead to financial meltdown which G7, E.U. and IMF and world bank try to avert. It take time to do so...

Singapore economy is very open to global trade exposure and to U.S. export, expecting lower earning come into play when compaies start reporting...and property play is no exception.

HLJHLJ      ( Date: 13-Oct-2008 00:54) Posted: Your are right. Another thing is that developers can get stretched as well. However, this round, developers are more ready. They have more cash now. Hope some of them will lelong some units out next yr. LOL. I really do not wish sole bread winners to lose their jobs and have to sell their only house. Quite poor thing. Hope they do not over-commit and sell at the mercy of the market. ozone2002      ( Date: 12-Oct-2008 22:13) Posted: takes time for pple to get retrenched, reduce wages, be outta jobs etc.. once that happens monthly mortgage instalment payments will not be fulfilled and panic selling will start in the housing market .. isn't it great to get things on the cheap? rather than fight with everyone for higher prices when everything is rosy..

 

Rental market will be affected as well. Better seal a deal fast if you want to rent.
Many expat, PR are looking into buying condos or HDB to reduce their rentals. Also an apportunity for them to invest.

I think HDB price will not drop much if they supported it but if condo drops, then HDB resales will subside also but less as PR will go in to buy. I feel that condo will be more affected.

pikachu      ( Date: 13-Oct-2008 10:12) Posted: How about the rental market? I am thinking of renting out my flat.

 

How about the rental market? I am thinking of renting out my flat.

 

Your are right. Another thing is that developers can get stretched as well. However, this round, developers are more ready. They have more cash now. Hope some of them will lelong some units out next yr. LOL.

I really do not wish sole bread winners to lose their jobs and have to sell their only house. Quite poor thing. Hope they do not over-commit and sell at the mercy of the market.

ozone2002      ( Date: 12-Oct-2008 22:13) Posted: takes time for pple to get retrenched, reduce wages, be outta jobs etc.. once that happens monthly mortgage instalment payments will not be fulfilled and panic selling will start in the housing market .. isn't it great to get things on the cheap? rather than fight with everyone for higher prices when everything is rosy..

 

takes time for pple to get retrenched, reduce wages, be outta jobs etc..

once that happens monthly mortgage instalment payments will not be fulfilled and panic selling will start in the housing market ..

isn't it great to get things on the cheap? rather than fight with everyone for higher prices when everything is rosy..

 

I don't understand how Singapore can slip into a recession and property prices NOT be affected.