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Last Updated :  15 June 2012 at 17:05 IST
Source :Commodity Online
Gold to take out previous highs in 2012: SEB
 
LONDON (Commodity Online):  Gold is set to take out previous highs in this year, said SEB Commodity Research in a monthly commodity research note.
SEB stated that, “We still expect gold to take out previous highs in 2012 though we think that there is a risk that gold has already peaked. Our long term gold market view remains neutral vs. current levels.”
After falling back on negative market sentiment in May gold rebounded sharply in early June to trade once again above $1600 per troy ounce. Rising QE3 expectations following disappointing US job market data triggered the move, reiterating the importance of US monetary conditions for the gold price.
In early June gold rebounded sharply in both absolute terms and relative to equities, metals and oil. From an historical perspective, it is currently very expensive vs. equities, fairly expensive vs. copper and fairly normally priced vs. oil. Gold has also strengthened relative to the rest of the precious metal sector, emphasizing the extent to which markets have refocused on liquidity expectations rather than growth projections.
In recent months, rapidly deteriorating economic surprise indices are exerting pressure on politicians to stimulate global and particularly European economies before the spectre of deflation returns. Growth must be restored, especially in Europe, before the region suffocates under the downward growth spiral of austerity programmes.
Despite being more widely discounted than its predecessors, QE3 could certainly initiate a new gold uptrend and a potentially strong one too if it coincided with a further deterioration in the Eurozone crisis, supporting the dollar and boosting safe haven demand.
SEB suggest three bullish factors for gold in short to medium term:
--Speculative positions in COMEX gold remain at post-2009 lows due to increasing short positions, opening up for short covering on a move higher.
--Gold prices have consolidated for almost a year, falling below the long-term trend line. This also occurred in 2008 before moving from $800/ozt to $1900/ozt.
--US TIPS yields have continued lower throughout the period covered by gold market consolidation. US real interest rates and gold prices are usually strongly inversely correlated.
Therefore, their recent detachment strongly suggests one of them is in for a correction. While these three factors need not suggest a likely move higher, a bullish breakout appears more likely given current surrounding conditions.
By  Timothy OakesJune 15, 2012GREEK ELECTION HAS INVESTORS POISED TO ACT          Precious Metals are on the rise this morning ahead of what is viewed as a key Greek election. Global investors are most likely moving from their cash positions to the safe haven of Gold. Analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov said, “Not many will dare take on fresh longs ahead of the weekend given Gold's peculiar behavior recently, when it swings back and forth with or against risk sentiment.” In a note to its investors, HSBC wrote, “The next big event in the Gold world is likely to be the Greek election. Gold may be caught between the election and U.S. monetary expectations.”
Worldwide central banks stand poised to take action based upon Sunday’s Greek election. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has hinted at poor economic conditions as a result of this election and is poised to act. He said, “There are serious downside risks here. … This risk has to do mostly with the heightened uncertainty.” The seriousness is evident as not only the ECB is poised to act, but countries including Japan, England and other G20 nations are preparing to stabilize the global impact. And although since his election, and differing views, French President Francois Hollande has taken Germany to task but shares the same view when it comes to Greece and Sunday’s election when he said, “But I have to warn them, because I am a friend of Greece, that if the impression is given that Greece wants to distance itself from its commitments and abandon all prospect of recovery, there will be countries in the eurozone which will prefer to finish with the presence of Greece in the eurozone.”
American markets are also holding firm ahead of the elections, as well. Strategist Peter Boockvar said, “Ahead of Sunday’s election in Greece,  central bankers stand ready, again. With all the water central banks have expended out of their fire hoses over the past few years in their attempt to ‘do something,’ I can only think of magic candles -- those candles you blow out that only flare up again immediately after.” The G20 is set to meet next week in Mexico, and financial leaders are expected to discuss the weakest global economy since 2009.
At 9:01 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,625.00, Up $5.40.
- Silver, $28.76, Up $0.25.
by Robert Davis June 14, 2012
U.K. CENTRAL BANK STIMULUS LIFTS MARKETS   
The United Kingdom Treasury and Bank of England are preparing to embark on
two economic stimulus measures. The measures are designed to spur lending and give a boost to credit markets. In one measure, the Bank of England will create an additional 5 billion pounds per month, thereby increasing the money supply. The other measure will be an asset purchasing program, in which the central bank will purchase assets from private banks, and the private banks are to loan the cash to the public. “We are not powerless in the face of the eurozone debt storm,” said Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. “The government -- with the help of the Bank of England -- will not stand on the sidelines and do nothing as the storm gathers.”
Despite negative economic data released this morning, stocks on American exchanges climbed higher today as speculation rose about
further stimulus action by the Federal Reserve. “The only reason you could possibly be trading higher, based off of the morning economic data, is the odds of (further stimulus),” said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at New York brokerage BTIG LLC. “There’s nothing in the morning data that’s ‘good.’” 
The Gold price climbed slightly on the stimulus news. Metals analyst James Steel said, “The data out this morning reignited the possibility of further U.S. easing, and that’s supportive to Gold. The market has been characterized with a lot of volatility due to market speculations about Federal Reserve monetary easing.”
At 1 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,624.20, Up $4.80.
- Silver, $28.71, Down $0.34.
Gold Silver News
June 13, 2012 • 15:43:46 PDTderivatives worldwide has grown from $100 trillion to almost $800 trillion. It is a dangerous situation.  Read More
 
 
Last Updated :  14 June 2012 at 13:30 IST
Source :Commodity Online
Gold to be volatile next week on Greek elections, FOMC
 
NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Weekend Greek elections and a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could mean some volatility for gold next week.As per MKS Capital, “With the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Greek elections as well as the carrot still dangling with regards to QE3 (third round of quantitative easing), one would expect us to maintain a range around $1,600 over the next few days.”
“A negative outcome in Greece…that would almost certainly see the nation leave the eurozone will most likely see gold crashing lower alongside the EUR,” they continued.
“A double whammy of (FOMC Chairman Ben) Bernanke making no hint at QE next week could induce further selling from traders clinging on to the hope of further easing and see us trading back towards the $1,520-35 support zone. Whatever the outcome of these events, rest assured we will see volatile markets early next week,” MKS concluded.
According to Sharps Pixley, “Gold prices will no doubt be volatile as a result of the upcoming Greek re-election results and the market speculations of further quantitative easing, long-term investors are still taking advantage of dips in gold prices to further diversify into gold in lieu of depreciating paper currencies,”
In New York market, gold perched above $1,600 an ounce on Wednesday, retaining most of its gains from the previous session as prices were supported by persistent worries over Spain’s surging borrowing costs.
Gold Melts Higher but Pattern Still Bearish
240 Minute Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
 
“The latest move off of the high is impulsive (5 waves) which favors lower prices from the current level to at least Friday’s low at 1553. The bearish RSI reversal signal that was in place for gold last week is now in place for USD crosses.” The mentioned 5 wave decline was succeeded by a 3 wave advance into former congestion (resistance). Look lower.
 
LEVELS: 1553 1582 1608 1629  1641  1672
Last Updated :  14 June 2012 at 19:00 IST
Source :Commodity Online
Safe haven signs appearing in Gold: UBS
 
NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  A safe haven trade may be starting to form in gold, said Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) in a commodities briefing.According to the Zurich based bank, yellow metal is sensitive to U.S. economic data, as weak reports lead to higher expectations for more quantitative easing.
As per UBS precious-metals strategist Edel Tully, “This remains the most powerful driver for gold at the moment. But with so much uncertainty hanging over Europe, it is quite possible that the safe-haven trade is starting to creep in.”
Tully concluded that, “There has been decent interest in front-end options this week, with implied vols considerably higher than actual. This highlights the heightened degree of nervousness in the market at the moment.” She notes German bund yields have begun to rise.
“Of course, it is too early to make any conclusions about German bonds losing their safe-haven value. But if they did, investors would be on the lookout for new ‘secure’ places to park their money, and given the much-reduced list of alternatives, gold would be one of the top options,” Tully concluded.
UBS AG (SIX: UBSN, NYSE: UBS) provides investment banking, asset management, and wealth management services for private, corporate, and institutional clients worldwide, as well as retail clients in Switzerland.
By  Ryan SchwimmerJune 14, 2012GOLD MAY BENEFIT THANKS TO PATHETIC BOND YIELDS   
American stock futures are mostly flat this morning, with many investors seemingly unsure how to react to recent developments in Europe and the United States. David Morrison of GFT Markets said, “As we have seen many times recently, the previous day’s price action has been reversed in early trading. Yesterday we saw stocks rally” as a result of J.P. Morgan’s chief executive testifying before the Senate Banking Committee. However, stocks “then tumbled after an auction of U.S. 10 year Treasuries,” Morrison said. While investors believe stocks may not be the safest place for their money, Morrison said, “An increasing number are coming to the opinion that this continued flight into U.S. Treasuries despite pathetic yields is a very bad sign indeed.” Gold could benefit from this realization, as the metal has historically been a safe haven investment in times of uncertainty.
At a recent bond auction,  the yield on 10 year bonds in Spain  rose above 7 percent, which was the trigger point for Greece, Ireland, and Portugal when those countries requested aid from the European Central Bank. Moody’s Investor Service cut Spain’s credit rating by three notches and now rests one level above junk status. The pressure is on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to come up with a solution, but she recently shot down what she termed “miracle solutions,” calling them counterproductive and said that they would violate the German Constitution.
At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,627.50, Up $8.10.
- Silver, $29.01, Down $0.03.
June 13, 2012 • 07:59:17 PDTReuters: Many more years of money printing from the world's big four central banks now looks destined  Read More
June 13, 2012 • 06:42:50 PDTGold, however, appears to be ignoring the core items, as today's data screams MOAR NEW QE.  Read More
Last Updated :  13 June 2012 at 19:05 IST
Source :Commodity Online
EU debt crisis to boost Gold demand significantly: Commerzbank
LONDON (Commodity Online):  The ongoing European debt crisis is likely to mean more gold demand from investors and central banks, said Commerzbank, the second-largest bank in Germany, after Deutsche Bank.
According to the German bank, the metal rose back above $1,600 an ounce Tuesday despite weakness in the broader commodity markets. So far, the financial aid promised to Spanish banks has failed to have its desired effect.
Further rises in Spanish and Italian bond yields Tuesday and a Fitch downgrade of Spanish banks.
Analyst with Commerzbank stated that, “Fitch has additionally warned that the Spanish economy is developing so poorly and the country is caught up in such a deep recession that the Spanish government will fall significantly short of its fiscal policy targets.”
They continued that, “The sovereign-debt crisis can be expected to keep the markets on tenterhooks for quite some time yet and cause demand for gold to pick up again--not only among retail investors.”
“For instance, the central bank of Kazakhstan has announced intentions to buy 24.5 metric tons of gold this year to increase the proportion of gold in its foreign currency reserves to 20% from 15%. This year, the so-called official sector is likely to be an important demand and thus price-driver for gold,” Commerzbank concluded.
The Commerzbank holds representations and holdings in various commercial and financial centers in Asia and the Americas. 
By  Ryan SchwimmerJune 13, 2012GLOBAL EASING AMOUNTS TO $6 TRILLION SINCE 2008    American stock futures are pointing to a lower start,  and were pushed even lower  after a report indicated retail sales fell in May. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank said, “In reality, price action is likely to remain unpredictable as we move towards this weekend, as position squaring will likely dominate ahead of the Greek election this Sunday.” The focus is squarely back on Greece in the eurozone, as the latest election could make or break the repeated bailout attempts for the troubled country. Gold recovered from early losses after release of the retail sales report.
Since 2008, more than  $6 trillion has been printed as part of money-printing or quantitative easing programs  by the central banks of the world. Further quantitative easing remains a near term possibility for all of the “Big Four” (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan). Many investors assume that further easing is sure to happen, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Gary Baker.
The central banks seem to know a way to offset the inflation created by money printing, however. According to the World Gold Council,  Gold makes up more than 70 percent of the reserves of countriesincluding the United States, Germany, Italy and France. Kazakhstan is the latest to significantly increase its holdings in the metal, and by the end of the year expects to have holdings up to 20 percent. The country has bought 16.2 tons of Gold through April of this year, and expects that number to be 24.5 tons in the second half of the year.
At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,622.50, Up $8.70.
- Silver, $29.02, Down $0.03.
more
June 12, 2012 • 15:18:15 PDT
Jim Rogers, offers insight on bailouts in Europe and why they won't work. He also shares his view on the U.S. economy
read more
by Robert Davis June 12, 2012
FED CONFIRMS RECESSION’S EFFECT ON MIDDLE CLASS WEALTH   
A report released by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday confirmed what many Americans already knew: The Great Recession wiped out a significant amount of household wealth and hit the middle class especially hard. Median net worth in the United States declined by 38 percent between 2007 and 2010. These declines in net worth have had a negative effect on consumer spending, which makes up about 70 percent of the American economy. This reduction in consumer spending, in turn, made the recession longer and deeper, and the recovery painfully slow. “What you see is an economy that’s really very, very stressed for the bottom 60 to 70 percent of the population that’s struggling just to make ends meet,” said Lance Roberts, chief executive of Streettalk Advisors LLC.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans made remarks on Bloomberg Television in favor of
more monetary stimulus and quantitative easing. Despite the fact that Evans has held a view that more stimulus is needed for quite some time, his remarks today added fuel to a rally in stock markets Tuesday. “This market seems to embrace the idea that flooding the system with money is going to somehow make things better. It’s almost Pavlovian someone says more stimulus, and boom,” said Mike Shea, managing partner at Direct Access Partners.
At 4 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,610.90, Up $14.10.
- Silver, $29.01, Up $0.31.
Time to buy gold!
Last Updated :  12 June 2012 at 19:35 IST
Source :Commodity Online
Gold behaving more like safe-haven again: Commerzbank
 
 
NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Gold is behaving more like a safe haven again, said Commerzbank, the second-largest bank in Germany, after Deutsche Bank.
According to the German bank, in a weak overall market environment, the metal remains just shy of $1,600 an ounce, the bank points out. Not only did Spanish 10-year yields rise Monday despite a rescue package for the country’s banks, but market participants worry that the eurozone debt crisis will widen, with Italy perhaps becoming the next focus.
Analyst with Commerzbank added that, “The forthcoming elections in Greece this weekend are likewise not helping to calm the situation.”
“In recent weeks, the sovereign-debt crisis, coupled with relatively low gold prices, has increasingly lured in investors. Fund provider ETF Securities, for instance, reports inflows into its gold ETFs for the third week in a row, bringing total inflows in the past three weeks to $503 million,” Commerzbank concluded.
The Commerzbank holds representations and holdings in various commercial and financial centers in Asia and the Americas.
By  Timothy OakesJune 12, 2012MORE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ADDED TO WORRY LIST    Precious Metals prices have remained relatively steady, rising a bit during early morning trading. Some analysts are saying that the safe haven appeal of Gold is borne not of the eurozone worries, but actually what those worries could do to the U.S. economy. Analyst Nic Brown said, “Gold is sitting, waiting for something to happen, but I would argue it is waiting for something to happen in the United States, rather than Europe. (We need) more clarity in the United States over whether the economic data is going to improve again … or whether the weakening data is a sign of slower economic growth, and that therefore the Fed will have to do something. For me, the focus is definitely on the U.S. side of the Atlantic. In the meantime,  Gold is going up, down or sideways dependent on what is going on in the euro/dollar rate, and there isn’t a great deal else that is moving it around.”
In an interesting turn of events, outspoken Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter put Italy right back in the eurozone spotlight with Spain. However, Italy does not have nearly the exposure that Spain does, considering its much lower unemployment rate and lack of banking exposure to the real estate crisis. In Fekter’s opinion, “Italy has to work its way out of its economic dilemma  of very high deficits and debt, but of course it may be that, given the high rates Italy pays to refinance on markets, they too will need support.” Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti called her remarks “completely inappropriate.” The nation of  Cyprus also could be looking for a bailout, and it could become the fifth country to make such a request. Banking issues in Cyprus are bringing the need to light.
At 9:01 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,604.80, Up $7.80.
- Silver, $28.93, Up $0.23.
By  Peter LaTonaJune 8, 2012WILL CENTRAL BANKS SEND GOLD TO $2,000 IN 2012?    Jeff Kilburg of Kilburg Capital said he still expects  Gold to soar to $2,000  in 2012. “I think (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke has one more bullet left in the chamber,” Kilburg said, and he has to use it wisely. There is no reason not to expect the 12 year Gold bull run to continue given the economic uncertainty around the globe. Central banks became net buyers of Gold in 2010, and they have been net buyers in 2011 and 2012. The current global economic uncertainty could propel this trend forward.
Gold did not have a good week, but it did  rebound from morning losses  to climb back into the positive. Traders appeared to be unwilling to short Gold going into the weekend because there are too many potential Gold moving catalysts in the marketplace. Although expectations of an immediate round of quantitative easing were squashed this week by Bernanke, QE3 is still not out of the picture. The European debt crisis is far from being resolved. The Chinese economy remains covered in a veil of secrecy by Chinese leaders. It is very difficult for investors to get a handle on what is truth and what is fiction.
Markets are closed until 6 p.m. (EDT) Sunday. We will see if the traders were correct in not betting against rising Gold prices over the weekend.
At 5 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metal prices were:
- Gold, $1,596.10, up $7.10.
- Silver, $28.55, down $0.07.
 
Gold Extends Sharp Losses in Wake of Bernanke
NEW YORK (Jun 7) Gold fell sharply in late-morning trading. It dropped below what was psychological support at the $1,600 level.
The yellow metal has dropped sharply during Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress. Bernanke said the U.S. is facing economic headwinds, especially due the European Union debt crisis, but offered up no specifics on any fresh monetary stimulus package to promote more economic growth.
The gold market bulls did lose their newfound upside near-term technical momentum with Thursday's sharp losses. August gold last traded down $46 an ounce at $1,587, while Silver plummeted $1.23 to $28.22. Platium was also lower by @3 to $1,437.