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bsiong
    30-Jun-2012 01:37  
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Last Updated : 29 June 2012 at 19:05 IST
Source :Commodity Online

Gold to rise sharply in second half of 2012: Commerzbank



NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Gold to rise sharply in the second half of this year and also looks for gains by platinum group metals, said Commerzbank, the second-largest bank in Germany, after Deutsche Bank.

The bullion is still down more than 6 percent in the second quarter, its steepest quarterly loss since 2004. Gold has fallen more than 12 percent from the 2012 peak of around $1,790, and 18 percent from an all-time high above $1,920 reached in September 2011.

According to the German bank, all are rallying sharply from Thursday’s sell-off as the dollar weakens after some progress was reported at the European Union summit.

The previous slide in gold as puzzling, since the high risk aversion among market participants during the European debt crisis should be supporting rising gold prices, they added.

“Gold is thus behaving less like a safe haven at present and more like a risky asset class,” the bank continued.

“In any case, we are confident that bargain-hunters will support gold at the current prices, and expect to see a sharp rise in price in the second half of the year. Fundamentals also strongly suggest increased platinum and palladium prices.” Commerzbank concluded.

At 9:22 a.m. EDT, August gold futures at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange is up $44.80 an ounce to $1,595.20.

The Commerzbank holds representations and holdings in various commercial and financial centers in Asia and the Americas.
 
 
bsiong
    30-Jun-2012 01:33  
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bsiong
    30-Jun-2012 01:26  
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Gold jumps 3 pct after EU deal, set for monthly gain

 
* Gold heads for first monthly rise in five
    * EU leaders agree to recapitalize banks from rescue fund
    * Prices still on track for worst quarter since Q3 2008

    By Frank Tang
    NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - Gold surged 3 percent to
$1,600 an ounce o n F riday and appeared set to end June with its
first monthly gain in five, as a European deal to shore up banks
and cut borrowing costs lifted the investment appeal of bullion
and other commodities. 
    Silver and platinum group metals also soared after EU
leaders agreed to let their rescue fund inject aid directly into
stricken banks from next year and intervene on bond markets to
support troubled member states. 
    Bullion, which has for the most part of this year moved in
tandem with riskier assets, also received a boost from heavy
short-covering after losses earlier this week sent the metal
close to being oversold. 
    A nearly 5 percent jump in crude oil, with sharp gains in
grains, other commodities, the euro and U.S. equities amid a
better economic outlook after the EU deal also helped gold.
    " The gold rally is likely to continue because once again we
held well above the $1,525 key support level, we've had rapid
short-covering and now we have some physical demand. I don't
think the market will press prices significantly at least in the
near term,"  said James Steel, chief commodity analyst at HSBC.
    Spot gold was up 2.9 percent at $1,595.26 an ounce by
12:07 p.m. EDT (1607 GMT), having hit a one-week high of $1,600
an ounce.
    U.S. gold futures for August delivery were up $45.50
an ounce at $1,595.90, with trading volume in line with its
30-day average for the first time in about a week, preliminary
Reuters data showed.
    Spot silver rose 4.3 percent to $27.47 an ounce.
    Still, gold was on track to drop 4.5 percent for the three
months to the end of June, its biggest quarterly fall since the
third quarter of 2008. 
    After an 11-year bull run, which took gold prices to a
record $1,920.30 an ounce last September, it is now up just 2
percent on the year.
    " After 11 years it is only natural that gold stops and
pauses for breath before taking the next step higher,"  Saxo Bank
vice president Ole Hansen said. " The worry is obviously that
momentum has been completely lost and leveraged players (such as
hedge funds) have left the building." 
    An event that could put some life back into gold is
difficult to find at the moment, Hansen said. 
    " Before we move higher, there is a risk that we need to
clear the table, which could be triggered by a move below
$1,500,"  Hansen added.
    
    
    INDIAN BUYING PICKS UP
    Physical gold buying in major consumer India picked up a
little on Friday. Weakness in Indian demand has undermined spot
prices this year, with Indian gold prices near record highs due
to rupee weakness.
 

 
bsiong
    30-Jun-2012 01:23  
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Mid-Day Gold & Silver Market Report, 6/29/2012

by Brandi Brundidge June 29, 2012


COMMODITY PRICES JUMP WITH EU LEADERS ANNOUNCEMENT



Precious Metals prices are on the rise today, following yesterday’s losses.  As anyone that follows the trends of precious metals knows, the prices have been following the global economic predicament and the movement of the U.S.A. dollar.  There is speculation that silver is undervalued at the current levels and about what is actually driving the price.  Julian Phillips at silverforecaster.com said, “With the monetary stresses now and for the next few years at current levels, there is little reason why prices should fall.  Gold will react more and more as a monetary metal and the silver prices will move with it, not with economic conditions.”

Crude oil and gold prices began to climb this morning after EU leaders announced a strategy to have a single financial director for the region.  The European Central Bank will step into this supervision role for banks in the eurozone.  This approach would help calm the markets.  Crude oil had a bit of bearish news that Saudi Arabia is restarting an oil pipeline project that has been on hold for a reported two decades, which will resolve some concern involving the Strait of Hormuz. 

U.S.A. consumer sentiment for June fell to its lowest level since December.  Americans' attitude towards the economy isn’t necessarily optimistic right now especially from the view point of households with incomes over $75,000.  Richard Curtin a survey director said, " Since these households account for a large share of total spending, if the declines continue in the months ahead, it could have a substantial impact on total spending.”

At 1 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
  • Gold, $1,599.10, Up $47.50.
  • Silver, $27.57, Up $1.22.
 
 
bsiong
    30-Jun-2012 00:11  
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report, 6/29/2012

By  Timothy OakesJune 29, 2012


EUROPEAN UNION SHOCKER SENDS PRECIOUS METALS HIGHER   

Precious Metals prices moved noticeably higher in early morning trading as the dollar weakened against the euro on news of a European plan to lower eurozone member nations’ borrowing costs. Economist Vishnu Varathan said, “It still falls short of a concrete solution, but the removal of severe pessimism over what’s going to come out of the EU summit is driving markets higher.” Meanwhile, the news has led analyst Lynette Tan to offer a positive year end outlook for Gold. She said, “In the long run, we’re still bullish on Gold.  It’s still likely to hit last year’s high of $1,920. The global economy is not doing well, and we expect safe haven demand to be back for Gold.”

Eurozone leaders came together and hammered out a surprising compromise plan to help member nations. There are still issues to be worked out, but going from “no hope” to at least a road map of a plan on which everyone agrees has been a boost to global markets. The biggest shock of all was Germany’s agreement to a majority of the provisions. Banker Holger Schmieding said, “The  summit result offers no ‘silver bullet’ to solve the euro crisis once and for all. … It is another attempt to buy some extra time for the underlying fiscal repair and structural reforms to show results. All in all, there is some progress.” However, strategist Charles Diebel stated what many investors are probably thinking: “It is one step on a very long road. But we don’t have any details, and arguably the detail is where the risk lies, because the market will start to pick holes in it, as we’ve seen previously.”

At 9:03 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,598.50, Up $46.60.
  • Silver, $27.73, Up $1.38.
 
 
bsiong
    29-Jun-2012 10:05  
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Gold Drops as Silver is Cents from 2 Year Low

Weekly BarseliottWaves_gold_body_gold.png, Gold Drops as Silver is Cents from 2 Year Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

 

No change…I’m looking lower. “The latest move off of the high is impulsive (5 waves) which favors lower prices from the current level to at least Friday’s low at 1553. The bearish RSI reversal signal that was in place for gold last week is now in place for USD crosses.” The mentioned 5 wave decline was succeeded by a 3 wave advance into former congestion (resistance). Look lower as long as price is below 1641. A break of the December low could result in an historic collapse.

 

LEVELS: 1500  1522  1553 1589 1615  1641

 

 
bsiong
    29-Jun-2012 10:03  
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report, 06/28/2012

By  Robert DavisJune 28, 2012


OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES SLIDE ON EUROPEAN FEARS   

Most commodities, including Precious Metals and oil, ended the day with lower prices.  Prices were pushed down by a stronger American dollar and fears of a continued lack of resolution to the eurozone crisis. Oil ended the day at the lowest price in eight months as it closed below $80 per barrel. Dan Flynn, a trader at Price Futures Group in Chicago, when interviewed by Bloomberg News, said, “We’re not getting a lot of good news with the economy.”

Part of the reason for the drop in prices is the  summit among European leaders, who are desperately trying to stop the bleeding from Europe’s wounded economy. “The mood is one part hope, one part trepidation, and one part fear that there will be a lack of resolution at this latest meeting, which is probably a fair (to optimistic) assessment,” wrote Matt Smith, analyst with Summit Energy.

The American economy is on shaky ground, a statement that should surprise no one, but was particularly well outlined in a recent Reuters article. According to analysis of first quarter GDP growth, more than half of the growth of GDP in the first quarter came from pent up demand from the automobile sector, demand that since has waned. Data show that GDP growth in the first quarter, excluding this demand from the auto industry, was a measly 0.7 percent. This looks particularly worrisome when compared to the GDP growth of the fourth quarter of 2011, a relatively robust 3 percent. “It highlights that the U.S. is not immune from the weakness in the rest of the world. Corporate profits are likely to remain under pressure, a development that is unlikely to help the employment outlook,” said Jeremy Lawson, a senior economist at BNP Paribas in New York. This decline in auto demand correlates with the price decline for Platinum and Palladium, which are key ingredients in automobile components.

At 5 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,554.30, Down $25.60.
  • Silver, $26.37, Down $0.70.
 
 
bsiong
    28-Jun-2012 23:28  
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report, 6/28/2012

By  Timothy OakesJune 28, 2012


CONCERNS MOUNT AHEAD OF EUROPEAN SUMMIT DOLLAR RISING   

Precious Metals prices were weathering the blows of investors concerns over the eurozone debt crisis. Concerns ahead of the European Union summit have influenced investors and world markets. The Indian rupee continues to struggle, which has curbed the primarily Gold investing nation’s normal buying activity. Analyst Robin Bahr said, “There’s no semblance of a safe haven at the moment, but  as the price goes lower, that bid does come back  as you maybe get some renewed investor interest -- sovereign wealth funds and central banks looking to nibble away, and even some physical buying.”

Concerns over Germany’s economic issues mount, as executive and consumer sentiment fell from 90.5 in May to 89.9 (the lowest for Germany since late 2009) and unemployment rose. The issue is that core member nations, not just secondary nations, are now affected by the growing debt crisis. Economist Christoph Weil said, “Germany won’t be able to disconnect from the euro region developments. … The second quarter will show an economic contraction, and there are no signs of improvement for the following three months. Whether the situation stabilizes afterward hinges decisively on the euro crisis, and the latest developments are no real reason for optimism.”

Pressure continues to build for German Chancellor Angela Merkel within the European Union as she continues to be attacked on all sides from nations that find her intransigence irritating. Merkel is also feeling global pressure. The issue is that as unpopular as her beliefs are in the EU, they are quite popular with the German people.  Billionaire George Soros said he believes her position is a bit myopic. He said, “Merkel has realized that the euro is not working, but she cannot change the narrative she has created because that narrative has caught the imagination of the German public, and the German public has accepted it.”

At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,570.10, Down $9.90.
  • Silver, $26.96, Down $0.11.
 
 
bsiong
    28-Jun-2012 09:34  
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Gold Working on 7th Week of Consolidation

Weekly BarseliottWaves_gold_body_gold.png, Gold Working on 7th Week of Consolidation

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

 

No change…I’m looking lower. “The latest move off of the high is impulsive (5 waves) which favors lower prices from the current level to at least Friday’s low at 1553. The bearish RSI reversal signal that was in place for gold last week is now in place for USD crosses.” The mentioned 5 wave decline was succeeded by a 3 wave advance into former congestion (resistance). Look lower as long as price is below 1641. A break of the December low could result in an historic collapse.

 

LEVELS: 1500  1522  1553 1589 1615  1641

 
 
bsiong
    28-Jun-2012 09:31  
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Gold barely moves ahead of European Union summit



  SINGAPORE, June 28 (Reuters) - Gold held nearly steady on

Thursday and could trade in a narrow range ahead of a European Union summit, which is unlikely to deliver new measures to tackle the region's debt crisis and may prompt investors to turn to the safety of the U.S. dollar.

Gold touched a record of about $1,920 an ounce in 2011, when investors turned to the metal as a safe haven during the debt crisis in Europe. But this year, declines in other markets have caused investors to sell gold for cash, sending prices to the lowest in more than four months at $1,527 in mid-May. FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was little changed at $1,573.99 an ounce by 0019 GMT, having briefly risen to above $1,581 an ounce on Wednesday on bargain hunting.

* U.S. gold for August delivery fell $3.60 to $1,574.80 an ounce.

* German Chancellor Angela Merkel will pit herself against France and Italy on Thursday at an EU summit that could shape the euro zone's future, insisting they must put the bloc's fundamental problems ahead of pleas for emergency action.

* Weaker local currencies are weighing on gold demand from India, the world's largest consumer of the precious metal, and Indonesia, another leading Asian buyer, as traders also favour cash on concerns over a deterioration in the euro zone crisis.

MARKET NEWS

* The euro stayed on the backfoot in Asia on Thursday, though its downside was seen limited in case an impending summit of European leaders surprise markets with concrete measures to tackle the region's debt crisis.

* Japan's Nikkei share average rose at Thursday's open, supported by domestically driven stocks, although gains could be limited as hopes dwindle for a credible fix to the euro zone's debt crisis.

* U.S. crude rose for a third day on Thursday as positive economic data from the United States and a larger-than-expected fall in oil output from Norway offset concerns that a European summit is unlikely to produce concrete measures to solve the debt crisis.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

0755 Germany Unemployment rate sa Jun

0900 EZ Business climate Jun

0900 EZ Economic sentiment Jun

1230 U.S. GDP Q1

1430 U.S. Jobless claims Weekly

 

2300 S.Korea Industrial output yy May

2313 Japan Manufacturing PMI Jun

2330 Japan CPI, core nationwide yy May

2350 Japan Industrial output prelim mm May

 

 
 

 
bsiong
    28-Jun-2012 09:29  
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 6/27/2012

By  Ryan SchwimmerJune 27, 2012


ANALYSTS SAY FURTHER EASING IN EUROZONE NECESSARY

Better than expected economic data boosted American stocks while Gold remained flat during trading today. As Matthew Kaufler of Federated Clover Advisors explains, “The housing data came in better than expected  and we got good news on durable goods orders, so we’re having a relief rally that the economy is showing signs of relative strength and not weakening as some had feared.”

Investors are still waiting for tomorrow’s European summit to start before they make any decisions, it seems. Carlos Perez-Santalla of PVM Futures said, “The primary focus now seems to be the dreaded potential deflationary pressures (but) deflation would be more believable if the European economy were more stable.” Perez-Santalla also said that  further easing in the eurozone will be necessary. Money printing methods have historically been very supportive of the Gold price.

At 5:15 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,576.10, Down $0.30.
  • Silver, $26.98, Down $0.18.
 
 
bsiong
    27-Jun-2012 23:49  
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 6/27/2012

By  Ryan SchwimmerJune 27, 2012


EURO LEADERS ‘UNUSUALLY DIVIDED’ BEFORE SUMMIT

Precious Metals are trading lower this morning,  thanks to investors moving to the sidelines  ahead of the European Union summit, which starts tomorrow. Michael Turner of RBC Capital Markets said, “This could be a reasonably long holding pattern until the headlines start to flow from the European Council’s heads of state summit tomorrow.” The wait-and-see approach has currencies like the U.S.A. dollar and the euro trading mostly flat.

While summer is not likely to hold any big moves by policymakers in the U.S.A., Europe or China, Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Brebner believes  one thing could support gold. “I think we’ll continue to see very steady buying by central banks, which have been in the market for the last couple of quarters or so. That should help gold prices from weakening,” he said.

European leaders aren’t exactly agreeable ahead of the summit. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in response to euro bonds being a potential solution to the debt crisis, said that  she doesn’t expect that to happen in her lifetime. With borrowing costs in Italy and Spain reaching dangerous levels, the leaders of those countries are calling for assistance, but Merkel wasn’t keen on that idea either. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said, “The most urgent issue is the one of financing. We can’t keep funding ourselves for a long time at the prices we’re currently funding ourselves.”

At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,567.30, Down $9.10.
  • Silver, $26.80, Down $0.36.
 
 
bsiong
    27-Jun-2012 23:48  
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report, 06/26/2012

By  Robert DavisJune 26, 2012


INVESTORS SEEK SAFE HAVEN AS UNCERTAINTY REIGNS   

Stocks rose slightly today, as economic data and headlines cast a glimmer of hope onto trading floors. Home prices rose slightly, according to the Case-Schiller index that measures home values in 20 major cities across the United States. However,  optimism is still mixed with copious amounts of doubt, as described by Keith Wirtz, who oversees $15 billion as chief investment officer for Fifth Third Asset Management: “There are lots of variables at play. … People are looking at signs of stabilization in the housing market there’s the European summit this week it’s almost quarter end. It’s going to be a volatile week.”

Mixed with the good news about the housing market was a  drop in consumer confidence  to the lowest level in five months, indicating that consumers are getting jittery about the job market and their investments. According to a report by the Investment Company Institute, mutual funds saw cash outflows top $620 million, meaning investors withdrew at-risk money to invest in safer assets such as bonds and Gold. The same report showed inflows of $3.6 billion into bond funds, demonstrating investors’ search for a safe haven.

At 5 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,574.40, Down $15.50.
  • Silver, $27.13, Down $0.52.
 
 
bsiong
    26-Jun-2012 22:02  
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report, 6/26/2012

By  Timothy OakesJune 26, 2012


EUROZONE WORRIES MOUNT PRECIOUS METALS ON THE MOVE   

Precious Metals prices have been fairly volatile on eurozone debt fears and the escalation of violence and rhetoric involving Syria. Analyst Robin Bhar said, “Gold is capped on the upside by disappointment post-Fed, while on the downside,  we have some bargain hunting, and a bit of physical buying into the troughs. … We are stuck in a fairly small range here, in the $1,570 to $1,600 area, certainly until the weekend, when we will get to hear more on how the eurozone will be (tackled).”

The eurozone debt issues continue to escalate after the announcement of a  fifth eurozone nation applying for aid. Although Cyprus, the fifth nation seeking aid, is a much smaller “hit,” the combined effect of rising Italian and Spanish yields, Greek resolution, and monetary bailout has European leadership at a crucial crossroads. A summit has been put together to overcome some hurdles the European Union is now facing. Basically the whole of Europe is interested in a single treasury and the euro bond, except Germany. But Germany is, at this point, the only truly solvent nation and facing its own issues in being the benchmark, as production and consumer sentiment in Germany has slid over the last couple of months. Chairman Jim O’Neill said, “The euro crisis is in some ways mind bogglingly simple to solve ... because it isn’t economics, it’s politics. … If (German Chancellor) Angela Merkel and her colleagues stood there together with the rest of the euro area … and if they behaved as a true union, this crisis would be finished this weekend.”

At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,579.80, Down $9.10.
  • Silver, $27.30, Down $0.33.
 
 
bsiong
    26-Jun-2012 08:32  
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report, 6/25/2012

By  Brandi BrundidgeJune 25, 2012


GOLD MOVING HIGHER, BUT GASOLINE PRICES INCHING DOWN   

The price of Gold has moved higher as the safe haven appeal of the yellow metal returns on continued weariness over the eurozone debt crisis.  Cyprus has become the fifth eurozone country to ask for assistance from Europe. The Cypriot government said in a statement, “The purpose of the required assistance is to contain the risks to the Cypriot economy, notably those arising from the negative spillover effects through its financial sector, due to its large exposure to the Greek economy.”

Goldman Sachs strategist Jim O’Neil is more concerned with the United States economy than Europe’s due to America’s fragile condition that seems to be off track. O’Neil said, “Europe doesn’t run the world. The second half of the year, unless Europe completely implodes, I’m still in the camp that the markets recover, particularly the U.S. and some of the big (emerging markets), and we could still conceivably see new highs,” he said. “So we shouldn’t get solely focused on the European stuff.”

Gasoline prices are slowly falling, which in turn is positive for the economy to an extent. Credit Suisse economist Jonathan Basile said, “It’s like a stabilizer in the economy, but you also don’t want to see gasoline prices falling persistently, because that will tell you there’s got to be something else fundamentally wrong in the global picture. Gasoline prices are the most visible prices in the economy. People see it. … It’s very easy to see lower prices. That’s the good news. But you have to put it into the context of what’s going on.”

At 5 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,585.30, Up $17.90.
  • Silver, $27.57, Up $0.80.
 

 
tanglinboy
    26-Jun-2012 07:25  
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Buy gold! The only safe haven!!
 
 
bsiong
    26-Jun-2012 00:11  
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bsiong
    26-Jun-2012 00:08  
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Gold holds above $1,570/oz ahead of EU summit



 


* Gold buyers await fresh direction from summit, US data

* Euro, shares wilt, Bunds climb as risk aversion increases

* Gold/silver ratio hits highest since Oct. 2010 

By Jan Harvey

LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) - Gold prices held above $1,570 an ounce on Monday, taking a breather after last week's sharp correction as traders took to the sidelines ahead of a European Union summit later in the week, and further economic data from the United States.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,571.29 an ounce at 1444 GMT against $1,571.44 late on Friday, while U.S. gold  futures  for August delivery were up $5.60 an ounce at $1,572.50.

At the summit meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday, European leaders are set to discuss specific steps towards a cross-border banking union, closer fiscal integration and the possibility of a debt redemption fund.

Muted expectations for the meeting, together with concerns over global economic growth, prompted investors to scale back exposure to riskier assets on Monday.

European shares fell for a third session, the euro wilted and Spanish and Italian government bond yields rose as hopes faded that the summit will produce game-changing measures to tackle the debt crisis. Gold was little changed.

" We're at quarter-end as well as month-end, and on Thursday (we have) the EU summit," said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance in Geneva.

" I think we'll most probably remain sideways between $1,550-1,580, with a better possibility of testing $1,600."

The metal ended Friday with its worst weekly performance since May, down 3.5 percent after U.S. authorities disappointed bulls by failing to launch more aggressive monetary policy measures, like quantitative easing.

Further easing would maintain pressure on long-term interest rates, keeping the opportunity cost of holding gold at rock bottom, and weigh on the dollar.

Investors are still waiting to see whether weakness in Europe will drag on U.S. growth. A further run of poor data could yet force the Fed to act.

" The broader picture suggests gold could move a bit lower, but it will stay in this range until we see definitively whether the bulls will be right about the printing presses at central banks ramping up again, or whether they will hold fire until the world gets a lot worse," Macquarie analyst Hayden Atkins said.

" It is in a wait-and-see kind of mode."

Next week's June U.S. non-farm payrolls report is likely to be central to this, he said. An extremely poor report for May was the catalyst for gold's last rally above $1,600 an ounce.

 

 

SUPPORT HOLDS

From a technical perspective, chart support held for gold around the $1,560 an ounce level last week. Below that, support around the metal's May low below $1,530 is expected to cushion any fall.

" We prefer to buy dips in gold and expect the range lows near $1,520 to underpin a move back toward the $1,640 area," Barclays Capital said in a note.

Analysts say a break of the $1,640 June high will be needed to re-establish an uptrend.

On the physical markets, a recovery in the rupee from last week's record lows versus the dollar, which pushed up local gold prices, failed to stimulate fresh buying in major consumer India. Traders said they were awaiting further price correction.

Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.2 percent at $26.78 an ounce. The gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, rose to its highest since Oct. 2010 on Monday at 58.6 as the grey metal underperformed.

Spot platinum was up 0.1 percent at $1,428.25 an ounce, while spot palladium was flat at $603.75 an ounce.

Given economic problems in the United States and  euro zone, " we believe the immediate upside for prices of platinum group metals is limited" , Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note.

" Nevertheless, there is scope for both platinum and palladium to perform better next year should the global economy start to stabilise," it added. " Hence, our preferred long position in precious metals for (the second quarter) remains gold. Nevertheless, we would swap a long gold trade into a long platinum/ palladium position as we move through next year." (Editing byJames Jukwey)

 
 
bsiong
    25-Jun-2012 22:03  
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report, 6/25/2012

By  Ryan SchwimmerJune 25, 2012


SPAIN FORMALLY REQUESTS EU AID   

Uncertainty in Europe has led to American stock futures falling and Precious Metals prices remaining flat. A two-day  European Union summit meeting is set  for later this week, but Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak said that “nothing of substance will come” of the meeting.  He said Germany is “just not giving in to the requests for largesse that the rest of Europe wants them to disperse in the form of socializing debt obligations in the euro region.”

After informally making the request last weekend,  Spain has formally requested aid from the eurozone. Olli Rehn, the EU’s top economic official, said aid could arrive in a matter of weeks, adding, “The policy conditionality of the financial assistance … will be focused on specific reforms targeting the financial sector, including restructuring plans which must fully comply with EU state aid rules.”

Gold  seems to be in a holding pattern  at the moment. Macquarie analyst Hayden Atkins said, “The broader picture suggests Gold could move a bit lower, but it will stay in this range until we see definitively whether the bulls will be right about the printing presses at central banks ramping up again, or whether they will hold fire until the world gets a lot worse. It is in a wait and see kind of mode,” suggesting that increases in the Gold price are likely, and that it’s just a matter of ‘when’ and not ‘if.’

At 9:26 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

  • Gold, $1,573.90, Up $6.50.
  • Silver, $26.85, Up $0.08.
 
 
bsiong
    25-Jun-2012 19:00  
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Gold edges lower as dollar firms ahead of EU summit



 


* Gold buyers await fresh direction from summit, US data

* Euro, shares wilt, Bunds climb as risk aversion increases

* Gold/silver ratio hits highest since Oct. 2010 

By Jan Harvey

LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower in Europe on Monday, extending last week's sharp correction as the dollar firmed, but moves were muted ahead of a European Union summit later in the week and further economic data from the United States.

Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,566.09 an ounce at 1008 GMT, while U.S. gold  futuresfor August delivery were up 60 cents an ounce at $1,567.50.

The metal ended the last session in its worst weekly performance since May, down 3.5 percent after the U.S. authorities disappointed gold bulls by failing to launch more aggressive monetary policy measures, like quantitative easing.

Further easing would maintain pressure on long-term interest rates, keeping the opportunity cost of holding gold at rock bottom, and weigh on the dollar. Investors are still waiting to see whether poor U.S. data will yet force the Fed to act.

" The broader picture suggests gold could move a bit lower, but it will stay in this range until we see definitively whether the bulls will be right about the printing presses at central banks ramping up again, or whether they will hold fire until the world gets a lot worse," Macquarie analyst Hayden Atkins said.

" It is in a wait-and-see kind of mode." Next week's June U.S. non-farm payrolls report is likely to be central to this, he said. An extremely poor report for May was the catalyst for gold's last rally above $1,600 an ounce.

Prior to that, markets are focused on this week's European summit meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday.

European leaders will discuss specific steps towards a cross-border banking union, closer fiscal integration and the possibility of a debt redemption fund, according to a document prepared for the meeting.

But muted expectations for the summit, together with concerns over global economic growth, prompted investors to scale back exposure to riskier assets on Monday.

European shares fell for a third session, while Spanish and Italian government bond yields rose as hopes faded that the summit will produce game-changing measures to tackle the debt crisis, while safe-haven German bunds rose.

The dollar index rose to hit a two-week high on Monday, as risk-averse investors flocked to the U.S. unit. It was up 0.7 percent against the euro.

" With the (Federal Reserve) event risk out of the way for now, Europe regains centre-stage as EU leaders meet for the summit in Brussels which starts on Thursday," UBS said in a note. " But while gold's reaction to (Fed) outcomes is clear-cut, its reaction function when it comes toeuro zone  headlines has been quite muddled."

" The ambiguity and difficulty in trading gold in this type of environment adds to the lack of urgency to hold gold, especially now that balance sheet expansion from the Fed does not seem likely in the near-term."

 

 

SUPPORT HOLDS

From a technical perspective, chart support held for gold around the $1,560 an ounce level last week. Below that, support around the metal's May low below $1,530 is expected to cushion any fall.

" We prefer to buy dips in gold and expect the range lows near $1,520 to underpin a move back toward the $1,640 area," Barclays Capital said in a note.

Analysts say a break of the $1,640 June high will be needed to re-establish an uptrend.

On the physical markets, a recovery in the rupee from last week's record lows versus the dollar, which pushed up local gold prices, failed to stimulate fresh buying in major consumer India. Traders said they are awaiting further price correction.

Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.5 percent at $26.68 an ounce, tracking losses in gold.

The gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, rose to its highest since Oct. 2010 on Monday at 58.6 as the grey metal underperformed.

Spot platinum was up 0.3 percent at $1,431.17 an ounce, while spot palladium was up 0.3 percent at $605.75 an ounce.

Given economic problems in the United States and euro zone, " we believe the immediate upside for prices of platinum group metals is limited" , Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note.

" Nevertheless, there is scope for both platinum and palladium to perform better next year should the global economy start to stabilise," it added. " Hence, our preferred long position in precious metals for (the second quarter) remains gold. Nevertheless, we would swap a long gold trade into a long platinum/ palladium position as we move through next year." (Reporting by Jan Harvey Editing by Alison Birrane)

 
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