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Hi shplayer,
I agree with you on this analysis. Stamford Land is like Dr Jekyl and Mr Hyde. Got 2 sides.
The risk of investing in S.Land is high cos the value might never be recognized for shareholders. and while waiting, shareholders are subjecting themselves to a highly geared co with low operating profits. (Take note that its developments for these 2 years are one-off events = not much catalysts for growth after that)
I am a shareholder, though, and hope that its value get recognized. meanwhile, i will also not hesitate to run if there are no further future catalysts. Any recommendations on other undervalued co. with not as contradictory fundamentals? pls share! 
My 2 cts.
shplayer ( Date: 24-Oct-2010 00:07) Posted:
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As investors, we should be forward looking....hotel occupancy and rate in Aust is set to improve further in 2011 and 2012...
SL first quarter 2010 eps is already 4.4 cents......and hence getting an average of five years does not reflect the true situation (I am not sure if the average of five year is 2.9 cents, but it is likely that this year is omtted out).....if you look at sgx announcement, you will notice the number of transaction of insider buying......
Any sale of hotel or office is going to signnicantly increase the eps......and the stamford residence in sydney is already fully sold and profit should start being recognised...(I am not sure, please go and check yourself)......look forward to the stamford residence to be fully sold as well......
shplayer ( Date: 24-Oct-2010 00:07) Posted:
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For investors, STL is a stock that has contradictory fundamentals.
One the one hand, the stock price is undervalued when you consider its 'true NAV'......this has been extensively discussed in this thread.
However, when one considers its operational performance, it is quite demanding.
The average eps over the past 5 years is 2.9c and divident is 2.6c. At 56.5c, the P/E is 19.5X and a yield of 4.6%.
OCK is famous to reward retail investors as shown in the previous 2 counter SP shipping etc....
He reject the offer of 850 million for the hotel and he wants to sell it...so when a higher offer come, that it....it is the same for the office properties...the recent purchase by OCK suggest there is value in the company....
Info is available but how many people actually find value in it...most people who read report (I think not many) just go to the column of NAV and take the value directly from there.....without know what happen years ago, it will be difficult to know the actual value of the company......OCK know best which I think why he and his wife purchase recently....I not very sure too....check out sgx announcement...don't take my word for it.......
Another one is Guocoleisure where QLC want to privatise in 2005 at $1.20 but fail........he also keep buying and to date, he own 65%......
If you ask me why the price is so low.....I think because a lot of people still sit on the side line.....
And when sgx merge or acquire ASX, it is like dual listing for StamfordLand as it is listed in SGX but has assets in Aust.......
letsmakemoney ( Date: 22-Oct-2010 12:30) Posted:
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Hi jamesng..........
I used to be a supporter of SL too.but find the risks too high after thinking thru........
Because if Stamford Land really is so undervalued, why is no one except Mr Ow buying up? since all the figures u gave is openly available news. There must be significant risks involved thats why people don't buy up.
E.g.........why does Mr Ow want to keep his co. listed if he hasn't raised money from the capital markets for about a decade? to make minority shareholders rich? i don't think so.
He would be better off taking the co. private at a cheap price rather than keeping it listed. which he will do soon.@ $0.60? $0.80? its naive to think it can go so high as $1.20.
Btw, if people can't be bothered to recognize the stock = it will simply be forever undervalued.
thats the risk minority shareholders have to take.
My 2 cts worth
jamesng ( Date: 21-Oct-2010 20:47) Posted:
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Consider below, anyone would want to buy all the share up to privatise it as long as the price is less than $1.10-$1.15
Bid of Dyson Plaza last month = A$134 million
Bid of Hotel chain some years back = A$850 million
Stamford Residence (Sydney) almost completely sold = A$200 million.
Debt = S$440 million
Outstanding shares = 864 million
Based on a exchange rate of 1 AUD = 1.25 SGD, it is $1.20/share.
Share price is only $0.565 now.
And directors are buying recently and SL got assets in Singapore and NZ which you will get free. And Ock will only accept offer higher than 850 million for the hotels and higher than 134 million for the office building.....
The above estimate is conservative considering Aust strong economy and dollar.
I agree...GO is not on the cards at this point in time.
This man creates value through expansion and acquisition and is not his style to fortify and consolidate by buying his own company shares. The only reason he may be buying company shares is fear of corporate raid by mainland Chinese investors seeking to expand downunder. You mentioned ...The top 20 shareholders hold about 62.11% of issued shares...data from latest AR. => share are quite illiquid. Is it possible that some in this group may one day want to sellout to realise the shares value by selling to mainland Chinese investors?
But on the other hand, he once was seeking a REITs for the company and had to purchase a Singapore hotel first. That news used to circulate around more than two years ago. If he really wanted to, he would have acquired a hotel during the crisis period when assets were going cheap. But he did not. So were the old news proven wrong as were only rumours or still waiting to be proven correct while waiting for the right time to unfold?
Personally, I have sold all my Stamford Land shares and not planning to buy at this point since the price is high and market is toppish. There are also better buys elsewhere.
Stamford Land and GuocoLeisure share movements behave quite similarly. Both are undervalued and usually thinly traded. But prices can jump suddenly on high volume. Both counters are also tightly held with investors expecting the big boss to do a GO. After a while the prices drop and counter go back to sleep. And then GO forgotten again....
Always playing the same track in the CD....
shplayer ( Date: 10-Oct-2010 21:24) Posted:
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chinton86 ( Date: 11-Oct-2010 19:20) Posted:
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Consider this.......currently OCK direct & deemed interest is approx 37% of issued shares. If I am not wrong, to trigger a GO, he will need to cross the 50% mark....i.e another 13+% or about 112m shares.
The top 20 shareholders hold about 62.11% of issued shares...data from latest AR. => share are quite illiquid.
So far, since 16 Sep, he has acquired only 1.356m shares...between 49 to 55c....i.e. STL price increased 6c in acquiring a mere 1.356m shares(0.15% of issue shares).
To acquire another 112m shares from the open market, how much do you think he will have to push up the price?
Given the above stats, if his intention is a GO, then shouldn't you be very bullish about STL?......but I maintain my view that GO is not on the cards at this point in time.
tonylim2 ( Date: 09-Oct-2010 22:46) Posted:
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chinton86 ( Date: 09-Oct-2010 18:06) Posted:
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chinton86 ( Date: 06-Oct-2010 22:45) Posted:
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Don't think it will GO (General Offer). The open mkt purchase so far is merely .14% of issued shares.
Bear in mind, things are going well with STL
1. Appreciation of AUD => XC gains
2. Hotel business in 1Q is up 25% YoY.
3. Rental revenue from Dynon Plaza estmated to contributeof eps 1c.
4. Revaluation of DP yielding non cash eps of 4.2c
5. Aussie economy currently is one of the best worldwide.
6. Completion of sale of 100C Pasir Panjang property in April 2001 for SGD23m (cashflow of approx 2.7c per share) and profit of SGD4.26 (approx 0.5c per share)
The quarter just passed, 30 Sep, is half year (financial year) for STL......interim divident? Revaluation of NAV due to AUD appreciation?
Something worth considering.....but DYODD