
All Of The Reasons Everyone Is Freaking Over France
 
The yield on French 10-year bonds over German bunds has been shooting up recently, and a battle is taking shape between France
with much of the rest of Europe and team of Germany and the European Central Bank over whether eurobonds could mitigate mounting borrowing costs on sovereign debt in the near term.
As it stands, France's banks have high exposure to Italian sovereign debt and the French government has no access to
European Central Bank resources to stem borrowing costs.
Although France is generally regarded as one of Europe's stronger economies, the loss of its AAA rating would be devastating to
European efforts to build a firewall that would prevent contagion from spreading through the EU banking system.
France is losing its competitive edge.

Image: YouTube
 
 
Source: The Economist
France's debt is large — and growing.

Image: Ken Marshall on Flickr
 
 
Source: Der Spiegel
And its government is doing little to curb its deficit.

 
With growth slowing, it is already going to have trouble adhering to EU rules to bring its budget deficit under 3% by 2013.
Source: Der Spiegel
High costs of employing workers makes doing business expensive —
particularly in comparison to neighboring Germany.

Image: Dionetian on Flickr
 
Source: Der Spiegel
THE BIG KAHUNA: France's banks have massive exposures to Italian debt.

Image: AP
 
With Italy under fire and PM Silvio Berlusconi doing little to get his country's debt under control, the possibility that French
banks might have to write down some of their Italian assets is looking increasingly likely.
 
Source: New York Times
There's little hope that France can grow its way out of these immediate
problems.

Image: MJC Rodez on Flickr
 
And with an election looming, Sarkozy may not be so keen on new austerity.

 
Although he knows that budget cuts are in order, it could be difficult to choose between making unpopular spending cuts
and the eliminating the tax loopholes that have made him the darling of the business elite.
In a speech today, he also refused to cut more jobs and said the government will increase spending to €1.6 billion ($2.17 billion) in 2012.
 
Source: Reuters
Meaning the French government could have trouble backing up its massive
banks.

Image: Grigory Gusev via flickr
 
This would probably put further strain on France's already significant debt burden, as the country will probably not be able to access
more funding from the eurozone rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility.
Not to mention the fact that Merkel has been dominating Sarkozy in bank recapitalization talks.

 
While that outcome was not unexpected — Sarkozy's plan likely violated EU treaties — France's interests still lost out to Germany's.
Now Moody's announced that it is scrutinizing France's growth prospects.

Image: Casey Fleser on Flickr
 
From a Moody's report published October 17, reassessing France's stable outlook:
The deterioration in debt metrics and the potential for further contingent liabilities to emerge are exerting pressure
  on the stable outlook of the government's Aaa debt rating. Moody's notes that the French government now has l
ess room for maneuver in terms if stretching its balance sheet than it had in 2008. France's continued commitment to implementing the necessary economic and fiscal reform measures as well as visible progress in achieving the targeted sustainability improvements will be important for the stable outlook to be maintained.
Further strains on the French government could make this downgrade a reality.

Image: donald judge via Flickr
 
A French downgrade would have dire consequences for the rest
of the eurozone.

Image: Flickr bazylek100
 
That could completely derail EU leaders' plans to prevent contagion from spreading throughout the eurozone.
At the moment...

 
Unlike Italy and Spain, France is not part of the Securities Market Programme—the plan which allows the European
Central Bank to mitigate rising bond yields by purchasing debt on the secondary market.
If the yield on French debt and the cost of insuring it continue to rise, fears about rising borrowing costs could be self-fulfilling.
The bigger the worry, the higher the cost of French borrowing, which will generate even more fear in the markets.
So France is arguing with Germany and the ECB over eurobonds.

 
The official German government and ECB line has been positioned firmly against these ideas, and
this squabble appears to rapidly be turning into a shouting match.
Here's what's next.
Bankers: Here Are 10 Reasons Why You Should Request A Transfer To Hong Kong Right Now
Their bankers are celebrated, credited with Asia's amazing economic boom.
But which city to choose? We say Hong Kong.
In 40 years, its amazing skyline has blossomed as its economy took off.
Even if you're just bored in America, this could be the shake-up your career needs.
There are plenty of hedge funds to employ you.

Image: LisaDeern
 
The biggest, Value Partners, has $8.6 billion under management.
Even more exciting, Hong Kong hedge funders really know how to kick back and exorcise the stress: for five years running, hedge fund " Fight Night" has invited industry members to pummel each other for charity.
The opportunity to go head to head with the likes of Neil " Hands of Steel" Bullock is tough to turn down.
 
The big luxury brands are in force.

Image: Madonna Tribe
 
It's a natural byproduct of robust high finance.
Macau is a blast if you love to gamble.

Image: Wikimedia Commons
 
Macau, China's other special administrative district and the " playground for Asia's rich and famous," has a gambling industry three times the size of the Sin City. And Vegas isn't catching up Macau is expected to grow faster.
If that's not your kind of vacation, you can take in tons of natural beauty.

Image: kevindooley via flickr
 
The New York Times called the city-state a " haven of natural beauty."
Hong Kong's Ocean City theme park is popular and expanding. Most importantly, it has giant pandas.
The government might hand you cash just for living there.

Image: Fatwallet.com
 
Maybe not a windfall for a high-paid banker, but a few grand never hurts.
The nightlife rises above the competition.

 
The city takes high-quality eating and drinking seriously the month-long Wine & Dine Festival just wrapped up.
For the culturally inclined, Hong Kong's art scene is hip and growing.
Basically, the party never stopped, even when the recession hit. Even in 2009, they were throwing Sexy Santa parties.
There are more than enough jobs to go around.

Image: Jojo Nicdau via Flickr
 
Unemployment is only 3.4%.
There are amazing places to live.

Image: johntrathome on flickr
 
A 2,312 square-foot pad recently went for $9.5 million (Google Street View of the address). CNN reports that $12.9 million is typical for a luxury apartment in the city.
Check out our slideshow of these breathtaking HK digs.
The cost of living is bearable for a banker.

Image: Herry Lawford via flickr
 
That means Hong Kong is now the fourth-most-expensive Asian city to work in, after Tokyo, Osaka, and Singapore.
You can get the new iPhone like anywhere else.
Now check out the argument for Shanghai > >
Awesome Money Facts
 
It's humongous, and you could spend hours looking at it.
You should definitely do that!
In the meantime, here are some highlights.
This is what the chart looks like. You can see why you can spend hours looking at it.

Image: XKCD
Everything's in 2011 dollars...

Image: XKCD
For example: Colonel Steve Austin would cost a lot more to fix today than he did in his 1970s TV show. (But we can rebuild him!)

Image: XKCD
And all those famous prizes are worth more than you think after adjusting for inflation.

Image: XKCD
And now on to today... The cost of your smartphone (hardware not included)

Image: XKCD
The cost of Wikipedia

Image: XKCD
The average value of a pound of loose change

Image: XKCD
The same pound with no pennies

Image: XKCD
The same pound with no quarters
And here's what all those pennies you get in change every year are worth...

Image: XKCD
The cost of various dinners for four. (Arby's is quite the bargain!)

Image: XKCD
San Francisco restaurants = 2X+ the national average

Image: XKCD
And now, one of the reasons " the 99%" are protesting in the streets. Average hourly production worker pay hasn't changed in 50 years. But as for average CEO pay...that's average 1965 CEO pay on the bottom...

Image: XKCD
...And that righthand column is TWO THIRDS of average CEO pay in 2007 (our screen wasn't big enough to fit the whole thing).

Image: XKCD
The average household takes home $104 per day, after tax.

Image: XKCD
It costs $35 a year to own a fish.

Image: XKCD
And $200 a year to own a bird.

Image: XKCD
And $670 a year to own a cat.

Image: XKCD
And $695 a year to own a dog.

Image: XKCD
And $730 a year to own a rabbit. (Why so much to own a rabbit?)

Image: XKCD
It costs $92,000 to own a Porsche for 5 years, not including the car.

Image: XKCD
If you save $1,000 a year for 30 years and earn a 5% annual return, you'll end up with $66,000. Inflation will have consumed the value of most of the gain.

Image: XKCD
Kate Middleton's wedding cake cost $78,000

Image: XKCD
Her dress cost $350,000

Image: XKCD
Her flowers cost $800,000.

Image: XKCD
But none of those things came close to the cost of security: $20 million. (The whole wedding was a bargain at $80).

Image: XKCD
It only costs $8,604 a year to live in Scranton.

Image: XKCD
It costs $3,650 a year to own a car.

Image: XKCD
And $5,650 a year to eat.

Image: XKCD
No wonder the average household has nearly $10,000 of credit card debt

Image: XKCD
And pays $2,100 a year to carry that debt.

Image: XKCD
A pack a day costs $3,050 a year

Image: XKCD
And treating the cancer you might get from smoking it will cost $117,000

Image: XKCD
The average household is worth a lot less now than it was in 1984. Except for older households.

Image: XKCD
And if you're rich, it will cost you $303,000 to raise a kid.

Image: XKCD
We're just getting started. Check back tomorrow for more amazing facts about money.
The World's Largest TV Maker Is About To Give Google TV A HUGE Boost
 
It seems like a strange move, given that Samsung's Smart TV apps platform  has been pretty successful. The platform facilitates about 50,000 app downloads each day.
But, Google's new Google TV 2.0 software is a huge step up from the previous generation. Essentially, it's something we might actually want to use.
Samsung has not yet decided when it will unveil the new TV sets powered by Google TV. Competitor LG will announce its Google TV sets at CES in Las Vegas this January, the WSJ reports.
  NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein and Chief Financial Officer David Viniar could be asked to testify in former board member Rajat Gupta's civil insider-trading case, according to court documents.
  The Goldman executives are among 10 people " whom we would most want to depose," ahead of trial, Gupta's defense attorney Gary Naftalis said in court papers made public on Monday.
  Gupta, 62, was charged on Oct. 26 with leaking Goldman boardroom secrets to his friend Raj Rajaratnam, the central figure in a broad U.S. crackdown on insider trading at hedge funds. Besides Rajaratnam, Gupta is the most prominent executive to face insider-trading charges in the case.
  Gupta faces criminal charges brought by the Justice Department and a civil case filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He is fighting the charges.
  The letter, dated Nov. 15, listed Blankfein, Viniar, Goldman Sachs Chief Operating Officer Gary Cohn, Managing Director David Loeb and lead board member John Bryan. Blankfein testified as a government witness at Rajaratnam's criminal trial.
  Neither the influential Wall Street bank nor any of its executives has been accused of wrongdoing.
  Gupta stepped down from Goldman's board earlier this year. He also is a former director of Procter & Gamble Co and former global head of the McKinsey & Co consultancy.
  Rajaratnam was convicted in May and sentenced last month to 11 years in prison. U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff also ordered him to pay $92.8 million to the SEC. The market regulator named him as a defendant in its case against Gupta.
  In a separate letter to the judge, lawyers for Rajaratnam said the Goldman Sachs employees they want to depose include Cohn and Loeb.
  A Goldman Sachs spokesman, Michael DuVally, declined to comment.
  The names of Cohn and Loeb came up on Friday in court at oral arguments over whether or not depositions in the regulator's case should be taken until a criminal case against Gupta is completed.
  The SEC said in a separate letter to the court that it wanted to interview Gupta and his wife, Anita Matto Gupta, and Rajaratnam and his brother, Rengan.
  The judge has scheduled April 9, 2012 for the start of Gupta's criminal trial and Oct. 1, 2012 for the civil trial.
  The cases are SEC v Gupta and Rajaratnam, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, No. 11-07566 and USA v Rajat Gupta No. 11-907 in the same court. (Reporting by Grant McCool)
  MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia on Tuesday dismissed new U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's financial and energy sectors as " unacceptable" and said they would damage any chances of renewing negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear programme.
  A sharply worded Russian statement underscored Moscow's longstanding opposition to sanctions beyond those endorsed by the United Nations Security Council, where Russia holds veto power as a permanent member. The Council has passed four packages of limited sanctions against Iran since 2006.
  " We again underline that the Russian Federation considers such extraterritorial measures unacceptable and contradictory to international law," Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in the statement.
  It indicated that despite big powers having united to push through a U.N. nuclear agency board resolution last week that expressed increasing concern about Iran's nuclear programme, Russia continues to differ sharply with the West on how to win Tehran's cooperation.
  " Such practices ... seriously complicate efforts for constructive dialogue with Tehran," Lukashevich said.
  The United States, which fears Tehran's nuclear programme is secretly geared to developing atomic weapons, named Iran on Monday as an area of " primary money laundering concern" in a step designed to dissuade non-U.S. banks from dealing with it.
  It also blacklisted 11 entities suspected of assisting Iran's nuclear activity, which Tehran says is meant for peaceful purposes including power generation, and expanded sanctions to target companies that aid its oil and petrochemical industries.
  Britain and Canada also announced new sanctions against Iran's energy and financial sectors while France proposed measures including freezing the assets of Iran's central bank and suspending purchases of oil.
  FEWER CONCERNS IN MOSCOW THAN WEST
  Russia has significant commercial ties with Iran and built a nuclear power plant, the Islamic Republic's first, that was switched on this year.
  Analysts say Moscow see less risk than the West of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future, and uses its ties with Tehran as a lever in relations with the United States, its former Cold War foe.
  Russia has approved four sets of Security Council sanctions over Iran's nuclear programme, most recently in 2010, when President Dmitry Medvedev also pleased Washington by scrapping a contract to sell Tehran ground-to-air missiles.
  Those moves came at a time of improving relations between Russia and the United States, after President Barack Obama downsized a European missile defence plan that Russia opposed and signed a nuclear arms limitation treaty with Medvedev.
  Now, however, with talks on missile defence cooperation with Washington at an impasse, and the possibility that a Republican critic of Russia could be elected U.S. president in 2012, Moscow appears to see little gain from supporting new Iran sanctions.
  Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who plans to return to Russia's presidency in a March election, has expressed less concern over Iran's nuclear ambitions than Medvedev, the protege he ushered into the Kremlin in 2008.
  Russia has underlined its opposition to further sanctions and is calling instead for a step-by-step process under which existing sanctions would be eased in return for actions by Tehran to dispel international concerns.
  Western powers have not warmed to that idea, given that previous talks with Iran failed even to agree an agenda, with Iran loath to negotiate any aspect of its nuclear programme.
  Moscow says additional sanctions are hurting the chances of reviving talks between Iran and six global powers -- Russia, China, the United States, Britain, France and Germany.
  " Strengthening sanctions pressure, which for some of our partners is becoming practically an end in itself, will not promote increased readiness on Iran's part to sit down at the negotiating table," Lukashevich said.
  (Writing by Steve Gutterman Editing by Mark Heinrich)
  By Rie Ishiguro
  TOKYO, Nov 22 (Reuters) - The euro zone debt crisis could hurt Japan's economy through a rise in the yen and falls in share prices and exports, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi said on Tuesday, in a sign of the bank's growing caution about the economic outlook.
  His comments are yet more evidence of growing caution within the central bank, which left monetary policy unchanged last week but downgraded its economic assessment.
  " We need to pay close attention to the possibility that shocks arising from Europe could ... hurt the overall global economy," Yamaguchi said in a speech at the Japan Center for International Finance, adding that the U.S. economy is also not at full strength in the aftermath of the Lehman shock.
  " In that case, there would be downward pressure on the Japanese economy through financial channels such as a rising yen and stock price falls, as well as declines in exports and through a possible impact on business sentiment."
  Yamaguchi said Europe's debt problems are the prime source of uncertainty over the outlook for the Japanese economy, in which the BOJ currently expects growth to pick up in the fiscal year from April on support from emerging economies and efforts to rebuild after the March earthquake.
  His remarks suggest the central bank would be ready to offer further monetary stimulus if risks to Japan's economic recovery increase.
  Yamaguchi is seen as a key figure to watch for signals on the direction of monetary policy and is regarded as the man in charge of communicating the BOJ's view to the government and ruling party lawmakers.
  At its last policy meeting, some of the nine board members, though not a majority, saw a higher risk of Europe's problems turning into a negative feedback loop in which tighter bank credit, less fiscal spending and an economic downturn feed into one another.
  Echoing such concerns, Yamaguchi said: " At present in Europe, there is no sudden negative feedback loop such as the one seen during the Lehman shock. But such a (mechanism) is emerging between public finances, the financial system and the real economy."
  The central bank cut its growth forecasts and eased monetary conditions on Oct. 27 by adding 5 trillion yen ($65 billion) to its asset buying scheme, taking it to 20 trillion yen.
  Its decision to stand pat last week reflected the dominant view within the central bank that its previous easing had taken into account the recent slump in output and business sentiment. ($1 = 76.9800 Japanese yen) (Editing by Joseph Radford)
  * Support for mkt opening growing in China:ex-trade official
  * Still, further reforms face high hurdles
  * No " pre-cooked" plan to shortchange private sector
  By Lucy Hornby
  BEIJING, Nov 22 (Reuters) - There is growing support among regional officials for further market opening in China, a decade after entry to the World Trade Organization forced its economy to adapt to bracing competition, argued China's former lead trade negotiator.
  Long Yongtu, who led the negotiations that brought Communist China into the WTO in 2001, said his recent meetings and travels showed growing impatience with the vested interests that have slowed reforms to a crawl in the past few years.
  " The mainstream of Chinese leadership and many senior colleagues, including provincial and local leaders, still believe that reform and opening up should continue," Long told Reuters from his office in one of Beijing's earliest skyscrapers .
  " The general feeling is still for going ahead or we will face more difficulties and problems. This is the consensus of the majority of cadres," said Long, who is now a member of the international board for the Boao Forum for Asia. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
  Reuters Insider interview with Long: http://reut.rs/rTBJ3M
  Reuters Insider on coddled banks: http://reut.rs/uIZX8c
  China " fine tunes" credit conditions
  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
  Even so, economic reformers -- particularly those who favour dropping the investment barriers for foreign companies and reining in the powerful state-owned companies -- face a difficult path in today's China.
  Over the past decade, the Chinese government has bolstered the position of the state sector, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, when Beijing poured 4 trillion yuan ($630 billion) worth of stimulus spending into the economy, much of it via government-owned companies.
  With another global slowdown looming, few senior Chinese officials publicly advocate further market opening or reform.
  Those backing a market-based approach lost credibility when Western governments responded to the economic crisis by intervening heavily in their economies, said Long.
  " Some government officials say that for the last 10 years we were always trying to streamline and take away privileges. They say 'But look at (the West)!," Long said.
  Long admitted that the planned handover of the top posts in China late next year had put a damper on any reform initiatives at the local level.
  China's top leadership will hand over the reins next fall in a planned reshuffle that will reverberate through a Party bureaucracy that permeates every level of society, from big business in Beijing to local administrators in remote provinces.
  " Many cadres prefer not to take action, or not very big action, to avoid a big mistake or jeopardising their career," he said.
 
  NO PLAN TO FAVOUR THE STATE SECTOR
  China has largely met its WTO commitments to open its markets, contributing to a decade of economic growth that has catapulted its economy to the world's No. 2 spot. But some sectors, such as financial services and the resources industry, stay largely out of reach.
  And trade friction persists. Trading partners complain that the surge of cheap exports from China has undermined their own industries, while their firms face continuing market access issues and in some cases requirements that they transfer technology to local partners.
  As for the dominance of state-owned enterprises, there was no " pre-cooked intention" to short-change the private sector, Long said.
  But China was desperate to avoid the global financial crisis of 2008, and only the big state enterprises -- whose spending accounts for 35 percent of China's total fixed-asset investment -- were large enough to absorb the flood of stimulus money that came into the economy.
  Long himself was surprised that the foreign banks -- a particular bone of contention during WTO negotiations -- had only managed to get about 3 percent of the market in China, lower than the 10 to 15 percent he had expected.
  He attributed that partly to foreign banks' missteps and argued that China's biggest banks could benefit from more competition in any case.
  " The big banks, they feel they have no pressure to reform. In fact, they don't know how."
  ($1 = 6.355 Chinese Yuan) (Editing by Don Durfee and Jacqueline Wong)
  * Geopolitical jitters support prices despite U.S., Europe debt woes
  * COMING UP: American Petroleum Institute weekly stocks, 2130 GMT (Adds quote para 17, updates prices)
  By Zaida Espana
  LONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures rose above $108 a barrel on Tuesday as fresh sanctions on Iran raised the prospect of political instability in the region, offsetting the effect on the oil price of worries about the health of Western economies and their fuel demand.
  The United States, Britain and Canada on Monday announced new sanctions on Iran's energy and financial sectors, ratcheting up pressure on Tehran to stop its nuclear programme.
  ICE Brent crude January futures rose $1.47 to $108.35 a barrel by 1239 GMT, after falling for four consecutive sessions. Brent has risen 13 percent this year, and is set for a third annual gain.
  U.S. January crude futures were $1.44 cents firmer at $98.36 a barrel by the same time, having risen to an intra-day high of $98.49 a barrel, after three sessions of losses.
  " There is geopolitical risk after Western countries intensified pressure on Iran, cutting financial links and also putting sanctions on the oil industry," Commerzbank oil analyst Carsten Fritsch said. " This increases the risk of supply disruptions either directly from Iran or transported via the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one third of seaborne oil."
  Investors fear oil prices could spike in the event of air strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, which could cut supply from OPEC's second largest crude producer and disrupt trade in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transit channel.
  The uncertainty has supported prices, under pressure from the worsening debt crisis in Europe and the United States that is expected to hurt economic growth.
  Analysts expect that liquidity in the oil market will however dry up ahead of the U.S. long holiday weekend.
  " Over the next two days the main input is likely to be Thanksgiving. Liquidity should gradually dry up as we go into a very long trading weekend," Petromatrix's Olivier Jakob said.
 
  GEOPOLITICAL RISK PREMIUM RETURNS
  OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said on Tuesday that the global oil market is balanced and prices are " comfortable" .
  Earlier, Iraq's oil minister had said in Tokyo he expects OPEC members to agree to trim output when they meet in December amid weak demand.
  On the supply front, Iran dismissed the new sanctions as propaganda, adding that new western states sanctions would not stop it exporting petrochemicals to the European Union.
  U.S. sanctions have already made it extremely difficult for many global oil companies and traders to obtain bank financing to trade Iranian crude, less than a third of which goes to Europe, with the rest flowing to China and India.
  The United Arab Emirates could start as early as end-December pumping oil via a key pipeline that will allow it to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and protect exports.
  Escalating unrest in other Middle East nations Egypt and Syria also underpinned oil prices, analysts said.
  Stockpile watchers await the latest weekly oil data from the American Petroleum Institute due at 4:30 pm. EST (2130 GMT). A Reuters poll of analysts forecasts a fall in U.S. crude oil and distillate stocks last week while gasoline stockpiles rose.
  Pricing pressures remain on the downside according to Barclays' oil analyst Amrita Sen, if the debt crisis in Europe or the tensions in the Middle East do not flare up.
 
  EUROPE, U.S. DEBT
  World equities took a hit on Monday as fears about the ability of politicians on either side of the Atlantic to tackle huge debt burdens sapped investor confidence in riskier assets.
  A " super committee" of U.S. lawmakers failed to reach agreement on a deficit-cutting plan while risk premiums on Spanish, Italian, French and Belgian government bonds rose as investors fled to safe-haven German Bunds.
  " The big concern now is whether U.S. politicians will stall an economy that is starting to recover," ANZ analysts, led by Mark Pervan, said in a note.
  Even China's economy faces growing risks from Europe's sovereign debt crisis and from debt held by local Chinese governments, the World Bank said, but it could engineer a soft landing by easing monetary policy. (Additional reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore editing by Keiron Henderson)
It cites shock Europe scenario and weak Q3 profits maintains defensive stance
 
By KELLY TAY
 
GIVEN tepid Q3 earnings, recommendation downgrades, and the possibility of a shock scenario in Europe, DMG & Partners Research said that there may be further downside for the Singapore equity market.
 
Gloomier outlook: DMG has made more downward net profit forecast revisions (25 per cent) than upward ones (10 per cent) for the current FY
'The current STI (Straits Times Index) level has factored in some negatives and weakness in global economic growth, but not a shock scenario in Europe . . . Any further deterioration in Europe could lead to more downside for the Singapore equity market,' said DMG analyst Leng Seng Choon in the research house's Q3 2011 results wrap report.
The STI currently trades at minus-one standard deviation (SD) to the 1.62 times historical average price-to-book ratio. Over the past 15 years, there were four occasions when the STI traded below the minus-one SD level: the Asian Financial Crisis from Q4 1997 to Q1 1998 the tech bust in Q4 2001 the Sars period from Q4 2002 to Q2 2003 and the global financial crisis from Q4 2008 to Q2 2009.
With global economic concerns presenting a headwind to the STI's performance, the research house has maintained its defensive stance on the equities market.
For Q3 2011, DMG said that 17 per cent of companies exceeded its net profit forecast, while 58 per cent came in in line with expectations. Twenty-five per cent, however, performed more than 10 per cent below its net profit forecast. These included companies such as Tiger Airways and Noble.
'Tiger Airways suffered widening losses from Australia, but what surprised most was that its Singapore side also reported losses on the back of falling yields,' said the report.
DMG also warned that the sudden reversal in PMI (purchasing managers index) numbers globally has led to slowing cargo shipments from Asia, and could be a precursor to falling demand for passenger travel over the coming quarters.
The report said that Noble's results came in 'way below street's and our expectations' due to the poor performance of Noble's cotton division. Its net loss of US$17 million - its first loss in 14 years - has led DMG to slash its FY2011-2012 forecast earnings by 30-40 per cent, and to cut its target price (TP) by 40 per cent to $1.20.
'We continue to recommend Olam over Noble for its large exposure to food-related commodities, which are more resilient in an economic downturn scenario,' said DMG.
On the back of increasing concerns, DMG has, for the current FY, made more downward net profit forecast revisions (25 per cent) than upward ones (10 per cent), with the rest remaining unchanged.
The technology sector, in particular, has seen its full year forecasts lowered significantly, even though Q3 results were largely in line with expectations. This is because the outlook for the current quarter has turned gloomy, and DMG believes that the situation would not improve until Q2 2012.
With more downward net profit forecast revisions, DMG saw 13 per cent of recommendations being downgraded, with the balance remaining unchanged. There were no recommendation upgrades following the release of Q3 results.
Downgraded recommendations include companies from the oil & gas sector such as STX OSV, Ezra, and Swiber. Ezra, for example, was cut from a 'buy' to 'neutral'. DMG said that Ezra's exposure to the deepwater segment is attractive, but continued cost expansion to build a global platform will hurt the company's near-term earnings.
Still, DMG said of the sector: 'We remain positive on the sector as a whole as we believe elevated oil prices will continue to drive order book expansion. Petrobras awards will be a major re-rating catalyst for Singapore shipyards.'
The research house said that its top 'buys' were corporates whose earnings would be 'more resilient in an economic downturn', such as ComfortDelgro (TP of $1.75) Frasers Centrepoint Trust (TP $1.79) M1 (TP $2.85) and Olam (TP $2.98).
It also noted that some corporates - such as Capitaland, Sembcorp Marine, and UOB - are more cyclical but their share prices could still perform well in the current environment.

  By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent
  LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters)- In some cultures, the number 7 is mystical and magical in the euro zone, it's a Mayday call.
  Yields on the bonds of two of the currency bloc's largest economies -- Italy and Spain -- were either at or within a whisker of 7 percent in the past week, creating huge concern about future funding and prompting a selloff in riskier assets.
  Widely considered the level at which funding costs become too high to be sustainable, extended periods of 7 percent yields have previously prompted bailouts for Ireland and Portugal.
  Italy and Spain are too big for this, particularly combined, so it is almost certain that the coming week will be dominated by investors watching to see whether this can reverse or at least be contained.
  Weekly bond-buying data from the European Central Bank, released on Monday, will give some idea of how much the authorities had to fight to keep yields just where they were.
  The European Commission also publishes its consultation paper on common euro zone bond issuance, something Germany strongly objects to.
  With the end-of-month deadline approaching for the euro zone to produce firm plans for leveraging the EFSF bailout fund, markets will also be keenly watching central bank officials and bloc finance ministers.
  The point for financial markets is that after months or worrying about whether contagion will take hold from Greece and other smaller countries' debt problem, it already has done.
  " We saw selling pressure moving to the core members, including the Netherlands and Austria," said Nick Stamenkovic, macro strategist at RIA Capital Markets.
  And with yields rising in France and Belgium as well it could even be argued that core Europe now only consists of Germany. But Bunds have begun acting in a way that suggests they may be losing some of their safe-haven appear.
  Add to that the behaviour of euro/dollar cross currency basis swaps. The cost to European banks of swapping euros for dollars rose in the past week to its most expensive level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
  Europe may not actually be on the brink, but markets are beginning to act as if it is.
 
  HERE COMES THE U.S.
  With such a crisis under way, it is hard to imagine that anything else could demand too much investor attention. But while Europe wallows, the U.S. economy has been pulling out of its mid-year-slump.
  Recent readings on the U.S. economy have steadily topped analysts' expectations. Many now think the fourth quarter will prove stronger than the third, when the economy expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate.
  The coming week offers up the Richmond Federal Reserve's manufacturing report and U.S. durable goods orders. Better-than-expected results would add to the improving mood and set markets up for the bellwether jobs data a week later.
  Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at wealth manager Brewin Dolphin, contrasts what is happening in the U.S. economy with the euro zone, which is sliding towards recession.
  " In the U.S., you have a Federal Reserve that is taking exactly the opposite tack to the ECB," he said. " It has been making very positive noises in its efforts to support the U.S. economy. And there is not at this stage any real drive towards fiscal austerity in the States."
  The problem for Washington is that the euro problems could easily undermine the U.S. resurgence. For example, a surge in the dollar if the euro became unstable would undermine exports.
  The euro zone's economic decline is expected to be highlighted in the coming week in manufacturing surveys and various consumer soundings.
  It all points to more volatility on financial markets -- with euro zone sovereign debt yields centre stage. (Editing by Hugh Lawson)
  " A few minutes ago Ali Akbar Javanfekr was arrested after holding a news conference with local media," Mehr said.
  Iranian media reported on Sunday that Javanfekr was sentenced to a year in jail and banned from journalism over a publication which was deemed to have offended public decency.
  Javanfekr is also the head of Iran's state news agency IRNA.
  Witnesses said " security forces fired tear gas inside the building of the state-run Iran newspaper," where Javanfekr was giving the news conference.
  Iranian authorities shut down reformist Etemad newspaper on Sunday after it published a scathing attack by Javanfekr on the president's rival conservatives. The daily is banned from publishing for two months for " disseminating lies and insults to officials in the establishment."
  Iran's conservatives accuse Ahmadinejad of being in the thrall of a " deviant current" of advisers seeking to undermine the authority of the clergy in the Islamic Republic's system of government.
  * Says euro zone growth in " soft patch" not long-term decline
  * Inflation likely to decelerate over coming two years (Adds detail)
  By Carmel Crimmins and Padraic Halpin
  DUBLIN, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The euro zone's sovereign debt crisis has spread from its periphery to its core but the region's economic weakness is likely to be temporary, outgoing ECB board member Juergen Stark said on Monday.
  " The sovereign debt crisis has re-intensified and is now spreading over to other countries including so-called core countries. This is a new phenomenon," Stark said in a speech to Ireland's Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin.
  " The sovereign debt crisis is not only concentrated in Europe, most advanced economies are facing serious problems with their public debt."
  The European Central Bank sees a strong dampening of growth in the euro area in the fourth quarter, but this phase should be temporary, Stark also said.
  The 17-nation euro zone economy grew a modest 0.2 percent in the third quarter from the second, lifted by France and Germany, but economists say the bloc is almost certainly heading for a recession.
  Survey data has deteriorated in the past two months, indicating " stronger dampening effects" in the fourth quarter after relatively benign third-quarter, Stark said in a speech in Dublin.
  " Based on most recent information, our staff do not expect longer term weakening in economic activity, but expect a soft patch," he said.
  " We should avoid talking ourselves into recession."
  A nasty mix of inflation, slowing exports and rising unemployment in the euro zone has caused many economists to predict a mild recession in Europe from the fourth quarter. ECB President Mario Draghi has also predicted a " mild recession" in the bloc by the end of the year.
  Stark said the debt crisis had spread around the world, but rejected the idea that weakness in the euro zone was dragging down the United States and United Kingdom.
  " I think all these countries have their particular problems," he said.
  Inflation is likely to slow over the next two years, he said, citing projections from other institutions.
  " We see in this projection horizon, a moderation of inflation in line with what we have defined as price stability in the ECB," he said. (Writing by Conor Humphries Editing by John Stonestreet)
Silver
Silver confirmed the breach of the ascending support level of the rising wedge, and then the metal declined sharply to settle below 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 32.95 and also below the Simple Moving Average 50 around 32.50 with the start of this week. These factors suggest that the downside movement could extend towards 30.30 basically. Therefore, we expect a downside movement to control the metal’s movement during this week.
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 29.15 and key resistance now at 34.00.
The short-term trend is to the downside targeting 26.65 as far as areas of 48.50 remain intact.
Support: 32.50, 32.00, 31.45, 31.25, 30.75
Resistance: 32.95, 33.40, 33.75, 34.00, 34.60
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion selling silver below 32.95 and take profit in stages at (31.45 and 30.30) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 34.00 might be appropriate
Gold
Looking at Friday's closing, we will notice that the metal has closed negatively below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the CD leg for our accurate bearish harmonic AB=CD pattern. Hence, the path is clear for reaching the second technical objective of the pattern at 61.8% followed by the first extended technical target at 76.4% level. Actually, the recently drawn negative sign on AROON indicator argues us to say that 76% will be reached. Ultimately, a break of 1703.00 will add further confirmation for our proposed harmonic scenario but on the other side, areas of 1785.00 should hold to protect it.
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1627.00 and key resistance now at 1800.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.
Support: 1715.00, 1695.00, 1687.00, 1673.00, 1650.00
Resistance: 1732.00, 1755.00, 1765.00, 1773.00, 1785.00
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling gold around 1728.00 targeting 1650.00 and stop loss above 1785.00 might be appropriate.
Oil settled below 97.70 after breaching the level on Friday. The commodity breached the ascending trend line that carried price from the lows at 75.00 areas as well. Accordingly, we anticipate further decline this week however the main obstacle to the downside resides near 95.50 areas which is the 200 days SMA. Stochastic is within overbought areas thus we may see fluctuations to retest the breached ascending trend line before resuming bearishness. While stability back above 99.90 will invalidate bearishness and resume the bullish trend toward the highs again.
The trading range for the week is among the major support at 94.00 and the major resistance at 100.00.
The short-term trend is to the downside with steady weekly closing below 105.00 targeting 65.00.
Support: 96.60, 95.60, 95.00, 94.50, 94.00
Resistance: 97.50, 98.00, 99.00, 99.60, 100.35
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend selling oil around 98.00 targeting 96.70 and 95.50. Stop loss with four-hour closing above 99.00
Crude oil declined heavily at the beginning of the week amid fears in Europe that debt crisis is deepening, where uncertainty dominates global markets, and the fact that the global economy is slowing became more obvious especially after Japan reported a weak industrial sector.
Many signs are seen around the globe showed that global economy is struggling due many factors, as the world's biggest economy is not feeling well, as U.S. Super committee is not finding a deal on how they will reduce the budget deficit by $1.2 trillion, where it is expected that they will announce their failure of reaching a deal today.
Crude oil for January delivery opened today's session at $97.52 and recorded a high of $97.85, where it retreated sharply after that reaching so far a low of $96.01 and it is currently trading negatively around $96.05.
Oil is affected by negative factors that kept it within the downward trend beating any positive factor that could give it some positive momentum, where it continued its downside rally that started last week moving below the $100 levels.
From Asia, negative signs are seen from Japan after it reported  worse than expected activities in the industrial sector amid declining exports, indicating that the yen's appreciation and Europe's debt crisis both are still holding away the nation's recovery since March's 11 disaster.
On the other hand, Europe remain the main focus for investors as its crisis is an endless tragedy that is keeping growth pace very weak amid the strict austerity measures that are weighing down the economy, where fears are spreading in the continent which keep the economic activities limited.
The rating agency Moody's warned today that the future image for France would be negative amid rising borrowing costs on the country, and a slowing pace of growth amid challenges that are affecting the whole economy, where France is doing her best to keep its debt rating on the top AAA.
Crude is a growth sensitive commodity and signs of a slowing growth pace in Europe and Asia would affect it negatively taking it from high levels into its normal levels, as the global economy is not stable and it faces a lot of challenges and retardants.
On a way or another, European leaders would act seriously and stop this crisis from spreading, but the question is when, and this is keeping uncertainty high dominates global markets, where crude will be so volatile today ahead of major news that could be announced from Europe or U.S., but before that, it will continue its downside movement indeed.
  CAIRO (Reuters) - Cairo police fought protesters demanding an end to army rule for a third day on Monday and morgue officials said the death toll had risen to 33, making it the worst spasm of violence since the uprising that toppled President Hosni Mubarak.
  The bloodshed in and around Cairo's Tahrir Square, epicentre of the anti-Mubarak revolt, threatens to disrupt Egypt's first free parliamentary election in decades, due to start next week.
  Clashes have raged on and off since police used batons and tear gas to try to disperse a sit-in in Tahrir on Saturday.
  Protesters have brandished bullet casings in the square, but police deny using live fire. Medical sources at Cairo's main morgue said 33 corpses had been received there since Saturday, most of them with bullet wounds. At least 1,250 people have been wounded, a Health Ministry source said.
  " I've seen the police beat women my mother's age. I want military rule to end," said 21-year-old Mohamed Gamal. " I will just go home in the evening to change my clothes and return."
  Islamists dominated demonstrations against army rule on Friday, but the unrest in Tahrir since then has drawn in many of the young activists who helped topple Mubarak on February 11.
  Army generals were feted for their part in easing him out, but hostility to their rule has hardened since, especially over attempts to set new constitutional principles that would keep the military permanently beyond civilian control.
  Police attacked a makeshift hospital in the square after dawn on Monday but were driven back by protesters hurling chunks of concrete from smashed pavements, witnesses said.
  " Don't go out there, you'll end up martyrs like the others," protesters told people emerging from a metro station at Tahrir Square, where about 4,000 had gathered by midday.
  CLOUD OVER ELECTION
  The violence casts a pall over the first round of voting in Egypt's staggered and complex election process, which starts on November 28 in Cairo and elsewhere. The army says the polls will go ahead, but the unrest could deter voters in the capital.
  Some Egyptians, including Islamists who expect to do well in the vote, say the ruling army council may be stirring insecurity to prolong its rule, a charge the military denies.
  German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle called for an end to the violence. " This is quite evidently an attempt to thwart a democratic transition process and we are opposed to that attempt," he said.
  Political uncertainty has gripped Egypt since Mubarak's fall, while sectarian clashes, labour unrest, gas pipeline sabotage and a gaping absence of tourists have paralysed the economy and prompted a widespread yearning for stability.
  The state news agency MENA said 63 flights to and from Cairo had been cancelled because of the latest unrest.
  The military plans to keep its presidential powers until a new constitution is drawn up and a president is elected in late 2012 or early 2013. Protesters want a much swifter transition.
  The army said on Monday it had intervened in central Cairo to protect the Interior Ministry, not to clear demonstrators from nearby Tahrir Square, whom it also offered to protect.
  " The protesters have a right to protest, but we must stand between them and the Interior Ministry," said General Saeed Abbas. " The armed forces will continue in their plans for parliamentary elections and securing the vote."
  " SAME MENTALITY"
  The Interior Ministry, in charge of a police force widely hated for its heavy-handed tactics in the anti-Mubarak revolt, has been a target for protesters demanding police reform.
  " Unfortunately the Interior Ministry still deals with protests with the same security mentality as during Mubarak's administration," said military analyst Safwat Zayaat.
  The latest street clashes show the depth of frustration, at least in Cairo and some other cities, at the pace of change.
  " Military rule is defunct, defunct," crowds chanted. " Freedom, freedom."
  Internet clips, which could not be verified, showed police beating protesters with sticks, pulling them by the hair and, in one case, dumping what looked like a body on a rubbish heap.
  Residents reacted angrily when police fired tear gas into a crowd gathered below a burning building 200 metres (yards) from Tahrir Square, hindering the rescue of trapped residents.
  Outside the burning apartment building, protesters chanted " Tantawi burnt it and here are the revolutionaries," referring to Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, Mubarak's defence minister for two decades and leader of the army council.
  " I don't want Tantawi ... I am staying tonight," said Ayman Ramadan, a data entry clerk, said early on Monday morning.
  Doctors in orange vests were treating casualties on pavements in the middle of Tahrir.
  The April 6 Youth movement told MENA it would stay in Tahrir and pursue sit-ins in other cities until its demands were met, including one for a presidential vote by April.
  Other demands include replacing the cabinet with a national salvation government and an immediate investigation into the clashes in Tahrir and trial of those implicated in it.
  Presidential candidate Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, a Salafi Islamist, told protesters: " We are demanding as the minimum that power be handed over within six months."
  Presidential hopefuls Mohamed ElBaradei and Abdallah al-Ashaal denounced violence against protesters and called for a national salvation government, MENA said.
  Liberal groups are dismayed by the military trials of thousands of civilians and the army's failure to scrap a hated emergency law. Islamists eying a strong showing in the next parliament suspect the army wants to curtail their influence.
  Analysts say Islamists could win 40 percent of assembly seats, with a big portion going to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Kerry, berry! Bo Berry Bonana fanna fo Ferry. KERRY! Come on everybody! I say now let's play a game. I betcha I can put the blame on some else's name.
Super committee has broken down in the blame game as the great partisan divide continues on how to cut 1.2 trillion dollars in spending. The Democrats believe that the only way to fix the deficit is to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire, thereby putting through the highest tax increase in history during a time when the economy is struggling. The Republicans refuse any type of tax increase except for the possibility to rein in spending and closing tax loopholes. The bottom line is that the Republicans believe that the deficit is a spending problem and not that the people are being taxed too little. The ongoing uncertainty is weighing on stocks as well as the price of oil.
Yet that is not the only reason that oil is faltering. The market is still focused on Europe and that situation seems to get more dangerous every day. The Wall Street Journal writes, " Spain's conservative opposition won a sweeping electoral victory on Sunday, in the latest sign that Europe's financial crisis is remaking the political map. Spain became the third ailing euro-zone economy to see a change of government in recent weeks, as the Popular Party won a strong mandate to overhaul one of the currency bloc's largest ailing economies, after administrations in Italy and Greece collapsed over their inability to push through economic overhauls demanded by the European Union and financial markets. This political turmoil has triggered a dangerous new phase of the region's sovereign-debt crisis, sending borrowing costs soaring for even higher..."
Oil is also going to focus on increased violence in Egypt as they border the sensitive oil throughway, the Suez Cannel. Inventories will be released on Wednesday for petroleum but will be released Friday for natural gas. We are looking for U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) to fall by 2.1 million barrels and gasoline inventories to rise by 1.5 million barrels and distillates to fall by 2.2 million barrels runs will be up 0.5.
Bloomberg News reports Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to U.S. President Barack Obama that China will increase the flexibility of fluctuations in its currency, the official China Central Television reported.
China will push forward yuan reform in an active, gradual and controllable manner, the television station cited Wen as telling Obama yesterday in Bali, Indonesia. China is closely monitoring changes in the yuan's exchange rate, the report said.
Policy makers in the world's second-largest economy have pledged to adjust the nation's growth toward domestic demand and narrow its external surplus to help address lopsided flows of trade and investment that contributed to the global financial crisis of 2008. Unbalanced trade flows have triggered calls from the U.S. and other Group of 20 nations for China to allow its currency to trade more flexibly.
Chinese President Hu Jintao told Obama at a Nov. 12 meeting that a large appreciation won't solve U.S. problems. During a trip that began Nov. 11 in Hawaii, Obama announced steps to expand trade and military cooperation with Asia-Pacific nations that share U.S. concerns over China's currency and intellectual property policies and territorial claims.
The yuan is allowed to fluctuate 0.5 percent on either side of the daily fixing rate set by the central bank. China's yuan has appreciated 4.13 percent against the dollar this year, according to Bloomberg data, the best performance of 10 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
http://www.pfgbest.com
10 Things You Need To Know This Morning
 
- Asian markets were down in overnight trading with the Hang Seng off 1.44%. Europe is sharply lower and U.S. futures opened lower.
- The 12-member bipartisan super committee is expected to announce today that it cannot agree on deficit savings and is likely to set off $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts beginning 2013. The Congressional Budget Office is expected to score a proposal today, ahead of the Nov. 23 target for reaching a deal. The S& P is expected to downgrade U.S. credit rating. Don't Miss: The 15 countries that will get smashed if the government cuts spending >
- Japanese exports fell 3.7% in October from a year before, according to the country's finance ministry. This is the first drop in three months and indicates that Japan's recovery since the earthquake earlier this year is expected to slow. Now here at the 10 countries that will dominate world trade in 2050 >
- Moody's has warned that its outlook on France's AAA credit rating could turn negative if interest rates on French sovereign debt increased and if its growth prospects weakened. The French-German 10 year spread widened on the news. Check out why everyone is freaking out about France >
- Spain's center-right Popular party led by Mariano Rajoy won the election on Sunday with 99% of votes counted. The Popular party now has 186 seats in the lower house of parliament.
- Germany's central bank cut its growth forecast to between 0.5% - 1% in 2012, down from earlier expectations of 1.8%. Growth is expected to shift from exports to the domestic economy.
- In M& A news, property and casualty insurer Alleghany Corp. has agreed to buy Transatlantic Holdings in a $3.4 billion cash-and-stock deal. Alleghany will pay $59.79 per share. Meanwhile, Validus Holdings has made a hostile $55.35 per share bid for Transatlantic. Meanwhile, Gilead Sciences wil buy Pharmasset Inc. for $11 billion.
- UK energy company Centrica has agreed to pay £1.03 billion to Statoil ASA for its gas and oil fields in the Norwegian North Sea. It also won a £13 billion natural-gas sales agreement that would boost UK energy imports by 25%.
- The European Commission believes that Eurobonds, issued jointly by the 17 member nations, are the best way to solve the financial crisis. The findings will be presented on Wednesday and could intensify a rift with Germany which has adamantly been against eurobonds. Meanwhile, EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner, Olli Rehn, said the economic recovery has stalled. Now here are 7 big debates happening in Europe right now >
- BONUS - Gisele Bundchen was spotted out at lunch with her son in New York's West Village yesterday.