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Last Updated : 24 October 2012 at 22:15 IST
 
Modest pressure on Gold prices likely to remain near term: HSBC
 
Source :Commodity Online
 
  NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Gold prices could remain under pressure in the near term as the yellow metal fell under technical-chart support at $1,720 an ounce and was dragged down Tuesday by the weakness in risk assets, said (HSBC) in a commodity snippet.
Weakness in the euro, price declines in the industrial commodities and the platinum group metals because of lower-than-expected corporate earnings were all weighing on gold. If gold breaks $1,700, the next support level is $1,660, which is where gold held prior to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, said James Steel, analyst with HSBC.
“We continue to see modest pressure on gold prices in the near term, barring any surprise announcements by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) for additional monetary easing policies. However, emerging-market demand for bullion has picked up, given the recent gold price decline, and this may act as a backstop against steeper price drops, in our view,” Steel concluded.
By  Ted PrinceOctober 24, 2012FED ANNOUNCEMENT: QE3 WILL CONTINUEU.S. stocks dropped to a seven-week low  following the end of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting to discuss economic strategy going forward. Few are surprised to learn that plans for indefinite monetary easing and near-zero interest rates until 2015 remain unchanged. " At first glance I don't see any surprises at all," said David Sloan, an economist at 4CAST in New York. " It seems like we had a big meeting last time and this time they have maintained their tone." The Fed remains concerned that theirpolicies are necessary to help boost a job market  that would not be strong enough without it. " They made the strategic decisions back in September and now they are fully in," said Adolfo Laurenti, an economist from Mesirow Financial. " There is really no easy way out, for quite some time."
Gold pulled back once again as the news of further stimulus boosted the dollar. The metal remains slightly above $1,700 today as many investors await the upcoming presidential election to decide what strategic moves they need to make in allocating their personal portfolios. Though the market has slipped downward following highs of near $1,800 last month,  Federal Reserve policy continues to cast a positive outlook on Gold in the long-term. " The U.S. Federal Reserve, through multiple initiatives and actions, consequently has become Gold’s best friend," Jeffrey Wright and Richard Hastings, strategists at GHS, wrote in a report Wednesday. Wright and Hastings added that " the commitment from the Federal Reserve to maintain an accommodative policy until 2015 [...] provides a strong foundation for what we expect will be continued gains in Gold prices into 2014."
At 5 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1702.60, Down $6.80.
- Silver, $31.79, Down $0.03.
Commodity Technical Analysis: Gold 1685/91 is Probable Support if Reached
Daily Bars
Chart  Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
 
Commodity Observations: Gold is nearing potentially strong support from the 38.2 retracement of the rally from 1522.50 at 1691.40 and 9/7 low at 1689.05. The decline from the top would consist of 2 equal legs at 1685.63 (also the 9/3 low).
 
Commodity Trading Strategy Implications: 1685-1691 is a level to consider longs
LEVELS: 1646 1677 1685/91 1714 1730 1753
By  Brandi BrundidgeOctober 24, 2012GOLD FACES THE EUROZONE’S NEGATIVE NEWSThe price of Gold has seemed to lose its momentum after the credit ratings of five Spanish regions were downgraded yesterday, which pushed the euro and Gold down.  The U.S. dollar is stronger today after Germany's business sentiment dropped for the sixth consecutive month, reflecting a weaker economy. Jeremy East at Standard Chartered believes the yellow metal is being tested at this time, but the expectation for future higher prices remains the same. East said, “I think we're going to have another test on the downside. The market is still quite heavily long, especially on the Commitment of Traders."
The European debt crisis has unfortunately worsened over the past three years, which has led to it spreading like a wildfire throughout the eurozone. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the eurozone was released today. The report is viewed as a reliable indicator of how about 5,000 businesses polled in the eurozone have grown. The PMI for October has dropped to 45.8 from September’s reported 46.1. This is the lowest reading since June 2009.  The reading shows how eurozone businesses have been forced to cut jobs to reduce costs with the unforeseen future approaching. " It's very disappointing, it's a depressing scenario as things are getting worse," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at data collator Markit.
At 9:16 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,711.70, Up $2.30.
- Silver, $31.92, Up $0.11.
By  Nicholas WilseyOctober 23, 2012GOLD STAYS DOWN MONETARY EASING DEVELOPMENTSGold has seen a significant dip in price today. With any strong movement in prices there is usually an underlying cause, and today that has been the struggles of the European economy. Spain has had their credit rating downgraded and has fallen behind in their debt reduction plans. The news has caused the euro to lose value and in turn has added value to the U.S. dollar.  However, there are indications this maybe a temporary dip in Gold’s market value. " It's a confluence of markets. With equities off so much, typically when we see a big drop in equities there's sort of a knee-jerk reaction that brings Gold down for a while before Gold picks up in response to the weaker equities," said Jeffrey Nichols, senior economic adviser at Rosland Capital. " So it may be playing through that game once again."
Last month all the talk was surrounding economic stimulus deals being set in motion by the world’s leading central banks. This month the issue has become whether the banks have done enough to stimulate growth.  This week U.S. Federal Reserve members are discussing plans that could add more stimuli to the national economy. While there may be talk, most economists believe it will not go into action right away. " The Fed has entered a holding pattern while watching for signs of a substantial improvement in the labor market," said Ellen Zentner, senior U.S. economist for Nomura Securities.
At 5 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,708.40, Down $17.90.
- Silver, $31.70, Down $0.57.
Last Updated : 23 October 2012 at 18:45 IST
 
Deutsche Bank still bullish on Gold raises 2013 Gold, Silver forecasts
 
Source :Commodity Online
 
FRANKFURT (Commodity Online):  Germany's biggest bank Deutsche Bank raised its 2013 and 2014 forecasts for gold and silver, citing support from stimulus measures by central banks such as the United States Federal Reserve.
According to Deutsche Bank, the gold price could exceed to $2,200 a ounce in 2013. the bank lifted its 2013 gold price outlook by 3% to $2,113 per ounce and its 2014 forecast by y 11.1% to $2,000/oz. The German bank similarly advanced its 2013 price forecast on silver by 3% to $44/oz and its 2014 outlook by 11.1% to $40/oz.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that, “A major support for precious metal prices are the recent moves by central banks to expand their balance sheet. Since gold is often sought as a hedge against currency weakness and inflation at times of loose monetary policy, such moves tend to boost its appeal to investors.”
" We believe central bank action to stimulate growth, avoid deflation and reduce systemic risk is unambiguously bullish for the precious metals sector and specifically gold," they added.
" While we have targeted gold prices moving above $2,000/oz since the beginning of 2011, we believe the Fed's open-ended program of QE announced last month increases our confidence that a surge in the gold price above this level is only a matter of time," Deutsche Bank concluded. 
 
By  Ryan SchwimmerOctober 23, 2012HEAD OF BANK OF ISRAEL SEES GLOBAL RECESSIONPrecious Metals prices are being dragged down by the euro,  even as U.S. stock market indexes are falling. The credit ratings of five Spanish regions were downgraded, hurting the euro’s price. Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Brebner said, “You’ve had QE priced in and what we’re seeing now is a bit of at retracement following that. We have a pause in monetary policy action … Conditions economically remain tenuous … there are concerns with respect to growth, and therefore the potential for deflation is starting to pick up a little bit.”
Stanley Fischer, the head of the Bank of Israel,  believes that the global economy is worsening  to a point of recession. “The empirical evidence is that [QE3] is actually quite effective, and we’ll see. This one is aimed very much at the mortgage markets, and housing had already been making a comeback in the United States so this might give it a push,” he said. Regarding the U.S., he added, “They have to deal with the fact that they have an unsustainable deficit and it’s clear from the polls that the uncertainties about fiscal policy are having a major impact on how people think about the future of the economy.”
24/7 Wall St. recently listed the  10 nations that control the world’s Gold. The list took into account each nation’s Gold-to-GDP ratio, and some of the rankings were surprising. The resarchers wrote, “Gold is no longer just an inflation hedge it is the key protection against a global race to devalue currencies, even if consumer prices are somewhat stable. Bonds pay historically low rates and stock market volatility has spooked many investors, so gold is becoming the true safe haven.”
At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,710.90, Down $15.30.
- Silver, $31.91, Down $0.36.
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Gold Finding Support at Expected Levels
Daily Bars
Prepared by Jamie
Saettele, CMT
 
“This is a level that could produce a low
although 1715 (9/13 low) is probably stronger. The drop has shifted reward/risk
to bulls against the 9/7 low at 1689.” Gold slipped just below 1715 today before
rallying over $10. At least a short term low appears to be in place and focus is
higher towards 1753.
 
LEVELS: 1691 1700 1713 1754 1770 1780  
Last Updated : 22 October 2012 at 22:10 IST
 
Recent Gold retreat may provide window for bargain hunters
 
Source :Commodity Online
  NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Gold traders will be watching to see if bargain hunting emerges after the recent pullback that has taken spot gold to a five-week low. The loss of upward momentum in the short term means potential for the recent correction lower to intensify, said Zurich based bank UBS in a commodity snippet.
" But this also gives a window to those who have been patient enough to wait for cheaper prices to jump in," the Swiss bank noted.
" The challenge, though, is that it is often much easier to express the desire to buy the dip when prices are trending higher than to execute the trade when prices are weakening. A correction in gold will therefore act as a test for market participants who have held a positive but unrealized view on gold to prove their commitment by pulling the trigger once prices become more attractive," they noted.
The bank still sees gold strengthening toward year-end. " But a confirmation of support between now and then will be important for gold, especially with a sense of discouragement growing among market participants as gold remains in a somewhat sedate state," said the bank.
" A test of $1,700 psychological support would be an attractive area for buyers to enter--both physical users and opportune investors--and we expect a dip below this level to be short-lived," UBS concluded.
by Brandi Brundidge
October 22, 2012
GOLD MOVES AHEAD OF FED MEETING GREECE REBUILDING CONFIDENCE
Gold is slowly climbing today ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting.
There is no expectation of further easing after the recent launch of QE3, in
which the Fed announced it would buy mortgage backed securities at a rate of $40
billion per month.
The meeting will provide details on how the American economy has
grown since last month when the Fed pushed out the new quantitative easing
plan. The new plan is scheduled to end once the unemployment rate and economic
state has improved substantially.
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has incurred success with rebuilding his
country’s economy.
The
citizens believe Greece will not face bankruptcy or a eurozone exit.
Citizens’ trust has been regained, and they are bringing money back to the
economy to reinvest into such assets as real estate. The mood was altered when
German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out letting the country default on its
financial debt. " You might see more inflows (in future) because the rhetoric
changed from the German side," said Georgios Tsapouris, an investment strategist
at British private bank Coutts. " At some point you have to move before the
market so there is going to have to be some opportunity," he said.
At 5 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,729.10, Up $5.10.
- Silver, $32.46, Up $0.34. 
By  Peter LaTonaOctober 22, 2012GOLD & SILVER REBOUNDING OFF MORNING DIPSFriday’s disappointing corporate earnings drove stock prices down more than 200 points and took Gold prices down 1.8 percent as investors sought the safety of the U.S. dollar. This morning, the U.S. dollar is down allowing  Gold prices to move up  off morning lows. Gold may also be getting support out Europe, as Spain’s Prime Minister appears to be getting support for proposed austerity measures. This has bolstered the euro, thus putting more downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
The  euro did edge up higher  after the results of Spain’s regional elections came in. The party of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy managed to hang on to power in his home region. This is seen as an important victory as it would indicate support for the wide spread austerity measures proposed by Prime Minister Rajoy. There is still a great deal of investor frustration that Spain has not requested a bailout from the European Central Bank. This win will stabilize the euro for the meantime, but the question is for how long?
At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,726.00, Up $1.90.
- Silver, $32.26, Up $0.15.
Last Updated : 20 October 2012 at 12:15 IST
 
You can see $1,900 Gold by October end, if QE history repeats: Deutsche Bank
  LONDON (Commodity Online):  After QE1 and QE2, gold prices rallied for up to 50 trading days and by around 15%. If it repeated today, this would imply gold prices rising to $1,900/oz by the end of October, said Deutsche Bank, the Germany's largest bank, in a weekly commodities report.
Global gold prices ended lower for the second week in a row. The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,724 an ounce, down 2% on the week.
According to the German bank, gold's performance over the past few days would, if sustained, suggest that the impact of this round of QE is fading earlier and more rapidly than previous QE episodes.
The past few weeks has also seen a significant compression in gold implied volatility, which has fallen to multi year lows. This reduction in implied vol has also been evident in other asset classes such as equities and FX. We would identify US dollar strength as the main risk to gold prices and the outlook for implied vol.
The bank also noted that, “gold to trade in a range in the coming weeks, adding that the metal does not appear to be getting the same boost from the third round of US quantitative easing as it did after the first two rounds.”
" We expect that gold prices could trade in a range over the next couple of months as we see a vacuum in terms of monetary action due to upcoming transitions/decisions in government in both the U.S. and China," they added.
" Somewhat supportive economic data (lately) from the US is also weighing on market sentiment for gold as early signs suggest that economic conditions may be normalizing," Deutsche Bank concluded.
By  Brandi BrundidgeOctober 19, 2012SPAIN CAUSES COMMOTION IN THE MARKET FISCAL CLIFF HERE BEFORE WE KNOW ITSpain unsuccessfully requested a bailout today from the eurozone  to rescue itself from a financial collapse, which directly affected the euro and gold negatively by pushing both down. " We're hearing Europe, the financial crisis you're starting to hear that again, so the dollar strengthened a little bit. And then you're hearing OK news out of China, so that means the Chinese central bank may be delaying their new stimulus measures," said Yu-Dee Chang, chief trader at Ace Investment Strategists.
The fiscal cliff is approaching quickly as the market watches from afar to see how our government decides to handle the tax and spending cuts for the American people. The choices will not only affect all U.S. citizens, along with the economy. " The fiscal cliff impacts the economy both by creating uncertainty and by imposing austerity," Ethan Harris, Bank of America's North American economist, said in a report. " If we go over the cliff for an extended period of time, a recession is likely."
At 4 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,722.50, Down $22.20.
- Silver, $32.11, Down $0.78.

by Ryan Schwimmer October 19, 2012
FRENCH PRESIDENT CLAIMS EUROZONE IS ‘ON TRACK’ – IS IT?
The euro is down this morning after the EU summit ended with no major developments. French President Francois Hollande believes the eurozone is “on track” to fixing the problems in the region, but he’s not fooling anyone. A statement from the summit claimed that banking supervision was coming, but as Alex White of JPMorgan said, “
The statement repeated the passage from the June summit word for word – indicating how little progress has been made. While France and the periphery continue to see banking sector support coming early next year, the German vision still looks like it is based around a timeframe from 2015 and beyond.” If this is true, it could be more than two years before the eurozone is on track again.
The euro’s weakness
seems to be holding the Gold price down at the moment. VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov said, “The EU leaders' summit delivered very little except the banking union, there is nothing to suggest that the euro will be stronger than the dollar going forward, and that's the problem.”
One analyst said, “Data from China were on balance eco positive, dampening hopes for sooner and more aggressive easing there. The U.S. data this week have been generally stronger, again lessening chances for further aggressive easing measures.”
At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,737.40, Down $6.80.
- Silver, $32.56, Down $0.33.
October 18, 2012 • 15:03:21 PDT 
 
Even though the Dow-Gold Ratio has always been followed, it's still fairly obscure & doesn't get much attention. Read More
Gold 1715 Viewed as Probable Support
Daily Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
 
“Gold has finally done something after consolidation at the top of the multiyear range for several weeks. The sharp break has resulted in a test of the 23.6% retracement of the advance from the late 2011 low. The area is also defined by September congestion. This is a level that could produce a low although 1715 (9/13 low) is probably stronger. The drop has shifted reward/risk to bulls against the 9/7 low at 1689.”
 
LEVELS: 1715 1728 1737 1754 1770 1780
By  John FosterOctober 18, 2012GOLD DOWN ON PROFIT TAKING HOUSING PERMITS BOOST ECONOMIC INDEXGold closed down today as continued euro uncertainty and a weak U.S. equities market had many investors looking to consolidate gains. A battle of wills between Berlin and Paris over greater European Union control of national budgets weakened the euro, and Gold, relative to the dollar. Adding to the pressure was new data showing China’s economy slowed for yet another quarter. “Without any other major drivers, the Precious Metals will continue to show weakness and test the downside” because the latest buyers might lack patience to wait for another bull run, said Carlos Perez-Santalla, a broker at PVM Futures. Despite its recent pull back,  Gold is still up $150 per ounce from mid-August.
A jump in home construction permits has underpinned the  largest increase in the index of U.S. leading economic indicators in seven months. While projected to climb only 0.2 percent, the Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.6 percent. “The residential housing market is in the very early stages of a durable recovery,” Joe Lavorgna, at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, said. “Housing is a leading indicator of underlying domestic demand thus, continued improvement in the former bodes well for some acceleration over time in the latter.”
At 5 p.m. (EDT) – the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1742.10, Down $10.40.
- Silver, $32.84, Down $0.42.
By  Ryan SchwimmerOctober 18, 2012GOLD TRADING LOWER WITH EURO AMID EU SUMMITPrecious Metals are trading lower in early morning trading, in line with a softer euro.  Though the euro is down today, for the week it is up approximately 1%, and some analysts are speculating that  the reason is all in the minds of investors.  Instead of expecting this week’s EU summit to produce results, “the market is well prepared for a meeting with no new measures,” according to Anders Moller Lumholtz of Danske Bank.
The weekly jobless claims report showed an unexpected rise in new claims this week, though it has had little effect on the markets.  A jump of 46,000 claims put the level at its  highest in four months.  The Labor Department says that low levels seen in the past week were actually an error in reporting on the part of California.  A spokesman for the department said that the report’s numbers “are being distorted … by an issue of timing.”
The Gold price remains in a narrow range,  despite losses this morning.  Uncertainty in the eurozone is pressuring the Gold price as the euro is coming under fire.  Edel Tully of UBS said, “Gold is trying to establish a foothold around the mid-$1,700s as we step into what is traditionally the busy season for Gold demand in India.”
At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,742.30, Down $10.20.
- Silver, $32.91, Down $0.34.