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Really don't understand why there are still so many sellers at $0.85.... contra players?? the CEO mentioned the whole company as a whole remain profitable and business are stable. At least to me it means limited downside risk. Cheers :)
May recover after result. Vested some
Queue 50 lot at 82.
So those who bought below .90 is quite comfortable .
SFGuyRuleZ ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 10:21) Posted:
Thanks Bro Octavia for the info..
Based on last paragraph and if their findings are accurate,
fair value based on 2nd Q's earnings ~= $0.9
fair value based on 2nd half of the year ~= $1.175
fair value based on full year's profit of NOK650m for financial year 2013 ~= $1.56
Octavia ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 09:43) Posted:
Vard Holdings is reporting its 2Q13 after market today. The co had issued a profit warning on 1 July, which has sent the stock plunging 23.4% in ten days and to its lowest since Oct11 yesterday. Vard's senior management team based in Norway reviewed of the " outsourcing yards" in Brazil where Vard had outsourced the 4 old vessel orders for hull manufacturing. Seemingly, the project had fallen into higher cost overruns than what the management had thought earlier.
Given the " cost plus" outsourcing contracts, Vard had to take the hit to its profit. House note that only 6 weeks back, during the 1Q13 results presentation, mgt had chalked out a new delivery schedule for the 5 vessels under construction in Brazil. One of them has been delivered while the other 4 are scheduled to be delivered in 3Q13, 1Q14, 1Q14 and 3Q14, respectively. The cost overruns on this project over the last 6 wks have come as a big surprise to the mgt too.
Auditors have asked the management to include the " entire presumptive losses" on this project in 2Q13. How much are the losses from these 4 vessels? Macquarie thinks it's around NOK140m. The build price of the vessels was NOK1500m (for 4 vessels). Vard was supposed to make around 10% margin on these. So overall, it seems Vard has given up its NOK150m EBITDA on these 4 vessels and made around NOK140m loss. Macquarie estimates 2Q13 profit would be only around NOK50m, much below consensus estimate of NOK189m. 2Q13 EBITDA margin should be around 6.0% in MER’s view. For 3Q13/4Q13, expect Vard to start including " start-up costs" from its new Promar yard (which will hire 400 people). Thus, margins will improve in 2H13 but still around 10% in MER’s view. Including NOK140m of loss in these 4 vessels plus some startup costs in the new yard, Macquarie thinks 2013 EBITDA margins will come around 8%, which means full year profit should come around NOK650m vs houseearlier estimate of NOK874m. While
Macquarie has an Outperform recommendation on Vard Holdings and a 12-mth TP of $1.82. House note that estimates are under review and think there is potential downside risk of approximately 25% to 2013’s earnings and approximately 15% to 2014’s earnings profit estimates. |
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Thanks Bro Octavia for the info..
Based on last paragraph and if their findings are accurate,
fair value based on 2nd Q's earnings ~= $0.9
fair value based on 2nd half of the year ~= $1.175
fair value based on full year's profit of NOK650m for financial year 2013 ~= $1.56
Octavia ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 09:43) Posted:
Vard Holdings is reporting its 2Q13 after market today. The co had issued a profit warning on 1 July, which has sent the stock plunging 23.4% in ten days and to its lowest since Oct11 yesterday. Vard's senior management team based in Norway reviewed of the " outsourcing yards" in Brazil where Vard had outsourced the 4 old vessel orders for hull manufacturing. Seemingly, the project had fallen into higher cost overruns than what the management had thought earlier.
Given the " cost plus" outsourcing contracts, Vard had to take the hit to its profit. House note that only 6 weeks back, during the 1Q13 results presentation, mgt had chalked out a new delivery schedule for the 5 vessels under construction in Brazil. One of them has been delivered while the other 4 are scheduled to be delivered in 3Q13, 1Q14, 1Q14 and 3Q14, respectively. The cost overruns on this project over the last 6 wks have come as a big surprise to the mgt too.
Auditors have asked the management to include the " entire presumptive losses" on this project in 2Q13. How much are the losses from these 4 vessels? Macquarie thinks it's around NOK140m. The build price of the vessels was NOK1500m (for 4 vessels). Vard was supposed to make around 10% margin on these. So overall, it seems Vard has given up its NOK150m EBITDA on these 4 vessels and made around NOK140m loss. Macquarie estimates 2Q13 profit would be only around NOK50m, much below consensus estimate of NOK189m. 2Q13 EBITDA margin should be around 6.0% in MER’s view. For 3Q13/4Q13, expect Vard to start including " start-up costs" from its new Promar yard (which will hire 400 people). Thus, margins will improve in 2H13 but still around 10% in MER’s view. Including NOK140m of loss in these 4 vessels plus some startup costs in the new yard, Macquarie thinks 2013 EBITDA margins will come around 8%, which means full year profit should come around NOK650m vs houseearlier estimate of NOK874m. While
Macquarie has an Outperform recommendation on Vard Holdings and a 12-mth TP of $1.82. House note that estimates are under review and think there is potential downside risk of approximately 25% to 2013’s earnings and approximately 15% to 2014’s earnings profit estimates. |
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Vard Holdings is reporting its 2Q13 after market today. The co had issued a profit warning on 1 July, which has sent the stock plunging 23.4% in ten days and to its lowest since Oct11 yesterday. Vard's senior management team based in Norway reviewed of the " outsourcing yards" in Brazil where Vard had outsourced the 4 old vessel orders for hull manufacturing. Seemingly, the project had fallen into higher cost overruns than what the management had thought earlier.
Given the " cost plus" outsourcing contracts, Vard had to take the hit to its profit. House note that only 6 weeks back, during the 1Q13 results presentation, mgt had chalked out a new delivery schedule for the 5 vessels under construction in Brazil. One of them has been delivered while the other 4 are scheduled to be delivered in 3Q13, 1Q14, 1Q14 and 3Q14, respectively. The cost overruns on this project over the last 6 wks have come as a big surprise to the mgt too.
Auditors have asked the management to include the " entire presumptive losses" on this project in 2Q13. How much are the losses from these 4 vessels? Macquarie thinks it's around NOK140m. The build price of the vessels was NOK1500m (for 4 vessels). Vard was supposed to make around 10% margin on these. So overall, it seems Vard has given up its NOK150m EBITDA on these 4 vessels and made around NOK140m loss. Macquarie estimates 2Q13 profit would be only around NOK50m, much below consensus estimate of NOK189m. 2Q13 EBITDA margin should be around 6.0% in MER’s view. For 3Q13/4Q13, expect Vard to start including " start-up costs" from its new Promar yard (which will hire 400 people). Thus, margins will improve in 2H13 but still around 10% in MER’s view. Including NOK140m of loss in these 4 vessels plus some startup costs in the new yard, Macquarie thinks 2013 EBITDA margins will come around 8%, which means full year profit should come around NOK650m vs houseearlier estimate of NOK874m. While
Macquarie has an Outperform recommendation on Vard Holdings and a 12-mth TP of $1.82. House note that estimates are under review and think there is potential downside risk of approximately 25% to 2013’s earnings and approximately 15% to 2014’s earnings profit estimates.
Which death is preferably to every other?"The unexpected"
Julius Caesar
Dear Peter, $1.555 still attainable???
(Come Money Come !!!)
Peter_Pan ( Date: 10-Jul-2013 21:15) Posted:
| Wow heavily shorted today! |
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Wow heavily shorted today!
Cimb is confident Vard will get the brazilian l tender within weeks ! Just hang on there
Sorry saw wrongly. Thought opening price was 0.84. Nevertheless, Vard looks like it will rebound from 0.83 and tomorrow's market shall confirm..
SFGuyRuleZ ( Date: 10-Jul-2013 17:40) Posted:
| Nice inverted hammer!! Possible bullish reversal?? |
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Short sell 1.5k
Dun blame yourself. It is human nature......
ZeeZee ( Date: 10-Jul-2013 18:27) Posted:
I do very few trades because I was still using a youth account. There are certain restrictions in place. But nevertheless, my mistake was not letting it go after it passed my stop loss of 1.22. thinking that it will recover.
My take on Vard is that the pessimism should be over after the low ball offer by fincantieri. In the first place, STX group accepted the offer only because they were desperate for cash. The group is also trying to sell STX Pan Ocean proving my point. But I never expected the profit guidance. And still, I didnt cut my loss.
GorgeousOng ( Date: 10-Jul-2013 15:14) Posted:
| 儍 人 有 儍 福 ！ ！ ！ 🙊 🙈 🙉 🙉 🙈 🙊 |
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I do very few trades because I was still using a youth account. There are certain restrictions in place. But nevertheless, my mistake was not letting it go after it passed my stop loss of 1.22. thinking that it will recover.
My take on Vard is that the pessimism should be over after the low ball offer by fincantieri. In the first place, STX group accepted the offer only because they were desperate for cash. The group is also trying to sell STX Pan Ocean proving my point. But I never expected the profit guidance. And still, I didnt cut my loss.
GorgeousOng ( Date: 10-Jul-2013 15:14) Posted:
儍 人 有 儍 福 ！ ！ ！ 🙊 🙈 🙉 🙉 🙈 🙊
SFGuyRuleZ ( Date: 10-Jul-2013 14:59) Posted:
| This is a test of his faith and love, and be with her through ups and downs, regardless of whatever people says. Would he be rewarded? They say good things happen to " fools" who wait. I am also one of the fools. lol. |
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The Joker says......
Peter_Pan ( Date: 10-Jul-2013 18:02) Posted:
Kindly explain your analysis.
Dividend_Warrior ( Date: 10-Jul-2013 17:44) Posted:
| 0.83 really is a good support...... |
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I guessing only...should have bought during matching...
SFGuyRuleZ ( Date: 10-Jul-2013 17:18) Posted:
hmm ic.. Thanks!!
Peter_Pan ( Date: 10-Jul-2013 17:09) Posted:
| Should be contra players i think |
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Kindly explain your analysis.
Dividend_Warrior ( Date: 10-Jul-2013 17:44) Posted:
| 0.83 really is a good support...... |
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0.83 really is a good support......
Nice inverted hammer!! Possible bullish reversal??
Looking @Vard current price of 0.83.... I'm just guessing... Vard 2nd qtr profit could drop ~50-60%???
Hope Vard would secure more contracts...
