
Your Complete Guide To Every Important Event In The MF Global Meltdown
 
With increasingly bewildering news surrounding the whereabouts of the missing client money, occasionally drab details from bankruptcy court and paparazzi shots of Jon Corzine surfacing on the news everyday,  it seems that problems ensnaring the brokerage firm are interminable.
To make it easier for readers, we've compiled all the important events you need to know to better understand the situation, from  the initial Moody's downgrade and European debt holdings that set off the alarm on MF Global to the House subcommittee hearing that's just been announced.
There was trouble brewing over the summer, when regulators told MF to build up more capital.

Image: Business Insider
 
Source: Washington Post
Then, a Moody's downgrade and a quarterly earnings release provided a double-whammy to the company stock.

 
The company decides to release earnings early on Oct. 25—revealing a $186 million net loss and $6.3 billion of European debt on their books. The European holdings only adds fuel to the fire of shareholder fears, and share prices for the firm continued nosediving, at one point trading below $1. A Fitch downgrade and another Moody's downgrade, both to junk, follows later that week.
Source: BI
By Oct. 28, everyone assumed MF Global would be bought out by a bigger company as its stock traded below $1 at times.

Image: BloombergTV
 
Goldman, Macquarie and State Street were initially rumored to be the most likely acquirers, but later reports note a slew of other banks expressing interest in buying MF Global or having been approached by CEO Jon Corzine.
Source: BI
Over the weekend, meetings and talks at MF Global continued as many expected a deal by Monday. But...

 
At the end of the weekend, it is reported that Interactive Brokers is a handshake away from sealing a deal to buy MF Global.
But...
Source: DealBook
Oct. 31: Bankruptcy day

Image: Business Insider
 
MF Global does not a leave a pretty legacy in its last hours. Before the bankruptcy was publicized, shares of MF Global are halted and MF Global traders are blocked from going onto the floors of the CME, NYMEX and the Intercontinental Exchange. The New York Fed also strips the firm of its primary dealer status earlier.
A trustee, James Giddens, is appointed by the court to oversee the bankruptcy process. 
Source: BI
After the bankruptcy filing, it is reported that there is a shortfall in segregated client funds at MF Global.

Image: Paul David Gibson
 
The amount of missing money is later calculated to be around $600 million.  JP Morgan and Harris Bank are the two entities initially connected with the investigation to where the shortfall may have landed.
It is a cardinal rule of Wall Street that client money are to remain strictly segregated from company funds. If the one responsible for the shortfall is found, criminal charges are very likely.
Source: DealBook
Federal agencies begin swooping in, and everyone is investigating MF Global at once.

Image: AP
 
They include the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the SEC and the FBI.
CME Group, which owns the CME and NYMEX, also announce their own independent investigation.
Source: BI
On Nov. 4, Jon Corzine resigns from MF Global.

Image: AP
 
Corzine, who is most famous for being an ex-Goldman Sachs CEO and former democratic senator and governor of New Jersey, has been the face that many blamed for getting MF Global into this predicament. Corzine was the one who led MF Global's efforts in taking positions on European sovereign debt, which set off investor fears.
Source: BI
Meanwhile, the investigation behind the $600 million missing client funds escalates...

Image: Business Insider
 
Clients had originally expected a smooth transition to a new broker after MF Global's bankruptcy, but the discovery of the missing $600 million causes all cash-only accounts to be frozen by the trustee. Client accounts which had open positions are transferred to new brokers, but with only 60% of the collateral to back them up, and customers receive margin calls.
SEE ALSO: BI talks to two MF Global clients, who spill on what it's like to have their accounts frozen.
In addition...
Source: DealBook
And it seems that MF Global's collapse has drastically affected confidence in another investment bank, Jefferies.

 
MF Global's collapse due to loss of confidence over European sovereign debt also shocks the market and those in the financial industry. Investors immediately begin fleeing Jefferies, a mid-size investment bank that has a business model similar to MF Global and a sizable European debt holding-- causing Jefferies stock to tumble.
Source:  BI 
On Nov. 11, the MF Global trustee fires nearly all the employees in the firm's US brokerage unit.

 
The job cuts do not go through quietly, within a day, former employees begin suing MF Global for possibly violating New York labor laws -- which require that all terminated workers be given 90 days prior notice.
Source: BI, BI2
Then, some good news is followed by bad news for former MF Global clients regarding their frozen accounts and the missing money.

Image: stevendepolo via Flickr
 
At a Nov. 16 hearing, a bankruptcy judge approves an order to transfer about $520 million back to customers who had cash-only accounts at MF Global.
But on Nov. 22, things take a turn for the worse -- the trustee announces that the actual shortfall may be double -- to $1.2 billion.
Meanwhile, the Commodity Customers Coalition, a grassroots group representing thousands of MF Global customers, starts up to represent the interests of the clients.
Source: BI, BI2, CCC
But a day later, the MF Global trustee reports that he had received a $1.3 billion transfer from Harris Bank, adding another confounding variable...

Image: Lisa Du/Business Insider
 
The $1.3 billion—which is in cash, securities and foreign currencies—will go directly to Giddens. The money represents a " cushion" for the trustee's payouts to MF Global customers who have had their accounts frozen, and will hopefully go towards making the clients whole.
Source:  BI
A congressional hearing has now also been scheduled.

 
On Nov. 22, a hearing is set in  with the House Committee on Financial Services' Oversight and Investigations subcommittee for Dec. 15, and Jon Corzine is called in to testify.
The presence of MF Global COO Bradley Abelow, federal regulators from the CFTC, SEC and New York Fed, and representatives from Fitch, Moody's and Standard and Poor's have also been requested.
Source: BI
Most of the events that have unfolded have been in the US...

Image: Lisa Du, Business Insider
But check out what's going on with MF Global operations around the world > > >
Desperately Seeking Sarah! Fringe Group Running Iowa Ad To Get Palin Into GOP Race

 
Hot Air reports that Conservatives4Palin, the Palin fan group, has raised enough money to run an ad in Iowa urging the former governor to get into the GOP presidential race.
Your contributions have made it possible for us to run the Palin reconsider television ad next week in the Sioux City, Iowa market. Thanks to everyone who chipped in to make it possible...What we do next after the television ad goes up is a more difficult question. If this ad is able to build some momentum for the Governor, the best way to keep that momentum going may be to commission a national GOP primary poll that includes the Governor as one of the options.
Me thinks they may be aiming at the wrong market.
These folks are clearly a pretty determined bunch, however, someone may want to point out to the group that the person most in need of convincing is not the Iowa caucus goer but Palin herself who has shown zero interest in running since announcing she wouldn't be in October. 
And it's not like the bar is so high that if Palin had decided to jump in she wouldn't have had a shot -- beside Cain and Perry, Palin looks like a veritable political genius.  But she's barely made a peep, even on her Facebook page, suggesting that whatever Palin does next it ain't going to involve running for office.
  * Consumer morale boost follows surprise rise in business sentiment
  * Stable consumption vital to keeping Germany out of recession
  * Poor interest rates see Germans favour spending over saving
  * Retailers satisfied with first Saturday of Xmas shopping - HDE (Adds quotes, data from retail association)
  By Alexandra Hudson
  BERLIN, Nov 28 (Reuters) - German consumer morale brightened for a second month heading into December, as willingness to spend rose to its highest level since January, despite a darkening long-term economic outlook and easing income expectations, a survey showed on Monday.
  For those anxious that Europe's powerhouse economy might be tipping towards recession, the GfK index bucked forecasts for a fall to give another rare piece of good news like last week's surprise increase in the Ifo index of business confidence.
  The survey's headline figure, based on a survey of 2,000 Germans, rose to 5.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 5.4 in November. Analysts had forecast a fall to 5.2 in a Reuters poll.
  The sub-index tracking willingness to buy jumped to 40.3 points from 31.2 the previous month, although readings for the economic outlook and income expectations both fell.
  " When considering what to do with their money at the moment consumers are tending to purchase items that will hold value, such as property or consumer durables, rather than put their money in the bank," the GfK institute said in its report.
  The GfK said Germans planned to spend on average around 241 euros on Christmas presents this year, just below the previous year's level.
  German retailers said they were satisfied with the first Saturday of Christmas shopping, with tablet computers, smartphones and 3D television sets proving popular choices, according to association HDE.
  HDE Managing Director Stefan Genth said November trading was not quite as good as last year and there was " room for improvement " , but that retailers were very optimistic for the decisive weeks to come .
  GfK predicted private consumption would still grow in 2012, albeit at a slower rate than the 1.5 p ercent forecast for 2011.
  " After the Christmas season, we see cautious optimism ," Klaus Wuebbenhorst, CEO of GfK SE told journalists in Frankfurt.
  " However, that's all with certain conditions. We don't have a crystal ball we can look into to see how the debt crises in Europe and the U.S. will develop . "
 
  SPENDING VS SAVING
  An increasing wariness of financial institutions amid a worsening sovereign debt crisis and disappointment at low interest rates on offer, had left Germans less likely to save.
  " This does not mean that Germans are burning through their savings. They are saving, but not so much as before, " said Wuebbenhorst.
  The GfK institute added that a robust labour market in which unemployment is expected to fall further next year, and income expectations still standing above their long-term average, had all helped to support spending.
  " The domestic economy is fulfilling its role as a key crutch for business activity in Germany. Stable private consumption is a key requisite for Germany to continue to grow and avoid recession given the backdrop of falling export expectations."
  For consumers' positive mood to continue, politicians needed to regain their trust and demonstrate their ability to act decisively to deal with the crisis, the GfK added.
  Germany posted likely economic growth of 3 percent this year, continuing its stellar rebound from the 2008/09 financial crisis. Expansion will slow next year however, with estimates ranging from around 0.5 to 1 percent as spiralling debt woes of Germany's euro zone partners take their toll on exports and domestic confidence.
  The GfK's economic outlook sub-index stood at -7.2, its worst reading since August 2009, and a direct result of fears over the debt crisis. However, the institute also noted that German consumers, like the country's surprisingly optimistic firms, could help Germany show more resilience than expected.
  Thursday's key Ifo business sentiment indicator showed the mood improved unexpectedly in November for the first time in nearly half a year. Ifo economist Klaus Abberger told Reuters the November index showed the debt crisis had not yet reached the real economy and Germany had a good chance of avoiding recession this winter..

  At 1454 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 3.5 percent at 939.26, and had hit a day's high of 939.96 points.
  Technical factors added weight to the move as the index had sold off nearly 8 percent in the preceding two weeks.
  Banks were among the top gainers with the STOXX Europe 600 Banking Index up 5.7 percent. (Reporting by Brian Gorman)
 
  The Commerce Department on Monday said that sales edged up 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted 307,000-unit annual rate, which was the fastest pace in five months yet still below analysts' expectations. The supply of new homes in the market would last 6.3 months at the current pace of sales.
  Still, the median sales price fell 0.5 percent, casting a pall on the market's outlook as potential buyers can be spooked by falling prices. (Reporting by Jason Lange Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio) (jason.lange@thomsonreuters.com +1 202 310 5487 Reuters Messaging: jason.lange.reuters.com@reuters.net))
  * Stock markets buoyed by hopes of euro zone debt deal
  * German, French push for greater euro zone integration
  * Strong consumer spending in the U.S. lends support
  * Coming Up: U.S. new home sales at 1500 GMT (Updates prices paragaph 4)
  By Christopher Johnson
  LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil jumped sharply to around $100 per barrel on Monday as concerns over possible disruption to Middle East oil supplies overshadowed worries over a worsening economic outlook for the euro zone.
  Brent crude futures for January rose $3.09 per barrel to a high of $109.49 before easing back to around $109 by 1440 GMT.
  U.S. oil's gain was even stronger, boosted by a healthy start to U.S. consumer spending ahead of the key year-end holiday season, with prices up $3.97 to a high of $100.74 before easing back to around $99.25.
  " Tension with Iran and talk of a European oil ban on Iranian oil is raising concerns of supply problems," said Christophe Barret, global oil analyst at Credit Agricole. " There is also some optimism over talk of a closer fiscal union among core euro zone states, although this would be a long way away."
  Markets got an early boost from a report suggesting the International Monetary Fund was preparing a 600 billion euro ($800 billion) rescue plan for Italy.
  Oil held on to its gains even after the IMF said it was not in any discussion with Italian authorities on a financing plan due to a weaker dollar and supply worries.
  Rising stock markets helped support sentiment on hopes that Germany and France, the euro zone's biggest economies, could find ways of imposing tighter budget control. .
  U.S. President Barack Obama was due to press senior European Union officials on Monday to reach a solution to the emergency that Moody's says now threatens the credit standing of all European government bond ratings.
  IRAN OUTLOOK
  Iran's parliament voted on Sunday to reduce diplomatic relations with Britain, with one lawmaker saying Iranians angered by London's latest sanctions could storm the British embassy as they did the U.S. mission in 1979.
  Europe is edging towards an Iranian oil embargo, despite worries a ban would hit euro zone members hardest, boost oil prices and force Iran to rely on China to buy more crude at discounted prices.
  Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix said an EU boycott of Iranian crude oil could exacerbate the region's economic problems:
  " The higher crude prices that Europe will need to pay for its crude oil will contribute to make the European economic crisis worse," Jakob said.
  James Zhang, oil analyst at Standard Bank, agreed, saying any moves towards a European embargo of Iranian crude was likely to put extra upward pressure on oil prices:
  " The timing of such an embargo could hardly be worse, as European crude inventories are at multi-year lows," Zhang said. " Even relatively small disruptions could cause spikes in flat prices and term structures."
  ($1 = 0.7536 euros) (Additional reporting by Cho Mee-young in Seoul and and Seng Li Peng in Singapore editing by William Hardy)
  MILAN (Reuters) - A rapidly growing population, climate change and degradation of land and water resources are likely to make the world more vulnerable to food insecurity and challenge the task of feeding its people by 2050, the United Nations' food agency said.
  The world would have to boost cereals output by 1 billion tonnes and produce 200 million extra tonnes of livestock products a year by 2050 to feed a population projected at 9 billion people, up from 7 billion now, according to U.N. estimates.
  Intensive farming of the past decades has helped to feed millions of hungry people but it has often led to degradation of land and water systems on which food production depends, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said on Monday.
  " These systems at risk may simply not be able to contribute as expected in meeting human demands by 2050. The consequences in terms of hunger and poverty are unacceptable. Remedial action needs to be taken now," FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf said.
  A quarter of the earth's land is highly degraded, another 8 percent is moderately degraded, while 36 percent is stable or slightly degraded and 10 percent ranked as improving, the FAO said in its report - State of the World's Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture.
  Water scarcity is growing as salinisation and pollution of groundwater, as well as degradation of water bodies and water-related ecosystems, rise, the report said.
  In many large rivers, only 5 percent of former water volumes remain in-stream and some rivers such as China's Huang He (Yellow River) no longer reach the sea year-round. Large lakes and inland seas have shrunk and half the wetlands of Europe and North America no longer exist, the Rome-based FAO said.
  With the increasing competition for land and water for food and feed in agriculture as well as industry and urban development uses, the challenge of providing sufficient food for everyone has never been greater, it said.
  Almost 1 billion people are now undernourished, with 578 million people in Asia and 239 million in sub-Saharan Africa, the FAO said.
  In developing countries, even if agricultural output doubled by 2050 as expected to feed the world, one person in 20 would still risk being undernourished, an equivalent to 370 million hungry people, most of whom would be in Africa and Asia, it said.
  STEPS TO TAKE
  Future agricultural production would have to rise faster than population growth for nutrition to improve and for food insecurity and hunger to recede, the FAO said.
  That would have to occur largely on existing farming land with improvements coming from sustainable intensification that uses land and water efficiently without harming them, it said.
  There have been warning signs of a slowdown of agricultural output growth rates in many areas to only half of what they were during the green revolution, it said, referring to a period in the 1960s and 1970s when farm yields got a boost through intensive practices and new seed varieties.
  Innovative farming practices such as conservation agriculture, agro-forestry, integrated crop-livestock systems and integrated irrigation-aquaculture systems can help boost food production while limiting impacts on ecosystems, it said.
  Most irrigation systems across the world perform below their capacity, so improving the efficiency of water use by farmers with improved management of resources and modern technology would be crucial, the FAO said.
  Gross investment needs between 2007 and 2050 for irrigation development and management are estimated at almost $1 trillion, while land protection and development, soil conservation and flood control would require around $160 billion in the same period, the report said.
  (Reporting by Svetlana Kovalyova Editing by Anthony Barker)
  MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Slowly but surely, drug cartels have ground down support for Mexico's ruling conservatives with a trail of dead over the past five years.
  Now, President Felipe Calderon's National Action Party (PAN) is trying to use the same gangs as a quick fix for its fading hopes of re-election next year - by painting rivals for the presidency as corrupt and in the pockets of the cartels.
  Calderon's term in office has been dominated by a bloody conflict with drug traffickers that has claimed 45,000 lives, eroding support for the PAN and turning the drugs war into a make-or-break issue for July's presidential elections.
  Latest surveys show his party is headed for defeat. The PAN is trying hard to taint the image of its bitter rival, the centrist opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
  Last month Calderon said some PRI members might consider deals with drug gangs, stirring up claims by critics of the opposition party that it made secret pacts to keep the peace in the 71 years it ruled Mexico until 2000.
  And on Tuesday the office of Calderon's attorney general said it was investigating whether a drug cartel pressured voters to back the PRI in a state election on November 13.
  John Bailey, a political scientist at Georgetown University in Washington, said Calderon had played a " double game" by calling for unity in the fight against organized crime - then suggesting his rivals were complicit with the gangs.
  " Going negative is ugly, but it's effective," he said. " I don't think Calderon has clean hands on this at all."
  But Calderon is well aware that most Mexicans want to root out drug gangs - and reject making deals with them.
  Voters like Mayra Lara, a 29 year-old business manager in Mexico City, say they would have to think very hard before voting for a party that was allegedly colluding with criminals.
  " How can you trust a government that supports drug traffickers, drug traffickers who are up to their necks in violence, recruiting young folk and the rest of it?" she said.
  So far, the mud-slinging has not hurt the PRI's main presidential hopeful, the telegenic former governor of the State of Mexico, Enrique Pena Nieto. Polls give the 45-year-old around twice the support of his nearest rivals.
  Unless the PAN can make the mud stick to Pena Nieto or people close to him, it may not matter much in 2012 if the PRI's reputation suffers, said Federico Berrueto, director general of pollster Gabinete de Comunicacion Estrategica.
  " Pena Nieto is not seen as a traditional PRI politician," said Berrueto. " And when it comes to the presidency, the party is less important than the person."
  DOUBTS ON DEMOCRACY
  The closeness of the election in Michoacan two weeks ago made it ideal for raising the spectre of foul play.
  The western state has been ravaged by drug gangs and the PRI candidate for governor defeated Calderon's older sister by just 43,000 votes - out of about 3 million eligible voters.
  Then a tape was leaked to the Mexican media in which a man identified as a leader of local cartel La Familia said voters in his district had to back the PRI or face reprisals.
  It was not clear how the recording was made, or how it came into the hands of the media, raising questions about the evidence, said Javier Oliva, a political scientist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).
  The man on the tape also stated the leftist Party of Democratic Revolution (PRD), which ruled Michoacan for the past decade, had ties with drug gangs. Hours after it was broadcast, the attorney general's office said it would investigate.
  The PRI leadership has denied cutting deals with drug gangs, but its record of corruption during the party's long and often authoritarian hold on power has made it an easy target.
  The end of PRI rule in 2000 is seen by many as the start of democracy in Mexico, faith in which has been tested during the drug war. A study published in October by pollster Latinobarometro showed only 40 percent of Mexicans felt democracy was the best political system. That figure was down 9 percentage points from 2010 and the lowest in Latin America apart from Guatemala.
  Many Mexicans feel the war has infringed on their freedoms.
  On Friday, human rights activists filed a complaint with the International Criminal Court in The Hague against Calderon, accusing him and other officials of allowing subordinates to kill, torture and kidnap civilians in the war.
  Michoacan, Calderon's home state, has been a crucial battleground in the conflict. It was there that he launched the drug war shortly after taking office in December 2006.
  And Michoacan was where in 2009, weeks before mid-term elections, Calderon's government arrested 35 public officials on suspicion of ties to drug traffickers. Many were from the PRD. The case against nearly all of them later collapsed.
  ACCUSING THE ACCUSER
  The PAN needs to produce results fast in the drug war.
  A survey by pollster Mitofsky published this month showed just 14 percent of Mexicans think Calderon, who is barred by law from serving a second term, would win the conflict.
  Despite this, two thirds of voters want the next president to continue the war, according to a separate September study called Citizenry, Democracy and Drug Violence (CIDENA).
  An hour before the attorney general's office announced its probe, the PAN issued a statement questioning the PRI's desire to fight crime. PAN senator Ruben Camarillo urged the PRI to come clean about the party's reported links with drug gangs.
  " I want to hear those voices from the PRI that have kept silent about the accusations and the clear evidence," he said.
  The PRI has hit back, accusing the PAN of having its own ties with drug cartels, and the PRD has joined the fray.
  With so many accusations swirling about, all parties are likely to end up with their reputations damaged unless Mexico steps up faltering efforts to bring corrupt officials to book, Mexican political analyst Fernando Dworak said.
  " If they don't, we'll have a demagogue waiting to take over as has happened in other Latin American countries," he said.
  ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan ratcheted up pressure on NATO on Monday over a cross-border attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at the weekend, threatening to drastically reduce cooperation on peace efforts in Afghanistan.
  The incident has complicated Washington's bid both to ease a crisis in relations with Islamabad and stabilise the region as it tries to wind down the war in Afghanistan.
  " This could have serious consequences in the level and extent of our cooperation," military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas told Reuters.
  Pakistan has a long history of ties to militant groups in Afghanistan so it is uniquely positioned to help bring about a peace settlement, a top foreign policy and security goal for the Obama administration.
  Washington believes Islamabad can play a critical role in efforts to pacify Afghanistan before all NATO combat troops pull out in 2014, so it can't afford to alienate its ally.
  Pakistan shut down NATO supply routes into Afghanistan in retaliation for the weekend shooting incident, the worst of its kind since Islamabad allied itself with Washington in 2001.
  " We have been here before. But this time it's much more serious," said Farzana Sheikh, associate fellow of the Asia programme at Chatham House in London.
  " The government has taken a very stern view. It's not quite clear at this stage what more Pakistani authorities can do, apart from suspending supplies to NATO forces in Afghanistan."
  Adding a new element to tensions, and a diplomatic boost for Islamabad, Pakistan's ally China said it was " deeply shocked" by the incident and expressed " strong concern for the victims and profound condolences for Pakistan."
  " China believes that Pakistan's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity should be respected and the incident should be thoroughly investigated and be handled properly," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said in a statement on the ministry's website.
  Pakistan has been trying to move closer to Asian powerhouse China as ties with the United States have suffered.
  China and Pakistan call each other " all-weather friends" and their close ties have been underpinned by long-standing wariness of their common neighbour, India, and a desire to hedge against U.S. influence across the region.
  On Saturday, NATO helicopters and fighter jets attacked two military outposts in northwest Pakistan, killing the 24 soldiers and wounding 13 others, the army said.
  Pakistan's military denied reports that NATO forces in Afghanistan had come under fire before launching the attack. Abbas said the attack lasted two hours despite warnings from Pakistani border posts.
  " They were contacted through the local hotline and also there had been contacts through the director-general of military operations. But despite that, this continued," he said.
  After a string of deadly incidents in the largely lawless and confusing border region, NATO and Pakistan set up a hotline that should allow them to communicate in case of confusion over targets and avoid friendly fire.
  " TRAGIC, UNINTENDED"
  NATO described the killings as a " tragic, unintended incident" and said an investigation was underway. A Western official and an Afghan security official who requested anonymity said NATO troops were responding to fire from across the border.
  Pakistan's military said the strike was unprovoked and has reserved the right to retaliate.
  Both explanations are possibly correct: that a retaliatory attack by NATO troops took a tragic, mistaken turn in harsh terrain where differentiating friend from foe can be difficult.
  An Afghan Taliban commander, Mullah Samiullah Rahmani, said the group had not been engaged in any fighting with NATO or Afghan forces in the area when the incident took place.
  But he added Taliban fighters control several Afghan villages near the border with Pakistan.
  A similar cross-border incident on Sept 30, 2010, which killed two Pakistani service personnel, led to the closure of one of NATO's supply routes through Pakistan for 10 days.
  The attack was the latest perceived provocation by the United States, which infuriated and embarrassed Pakistan's powerful military in May with a unilateral special forces raid that killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.
  Last month, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Islamabad and held a town hall meeting to try and win over Pakistanis, held talks with her counterpart and urged all sides to seek peace in Afghanistan.
  She also repeated U.S. calls for Pakistan to crack down on militants, especially those who cross the porous border to attack American forces in Afghanistan.
  Any goodwill from that trip probably evaporated after the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) strike, which triggered a fresh wave of anti-U.S. sentiment in Pakistan.
  OBAMA EFFIGY Burnt
  The main Pakistani association that delivers fuel to NATO forces in Afghanistan said it would not resume supplies any time soon in protest against the NATO strike.
  In the Mohmand region, where the attack took place, hundreds of angry tribesmen yelled " Death to America." About 200 lawyers protested in Peshawar city, some burning an effigy of Obama.
  Newspaper editorials were equally strident.
  " We have to send a clear and unequivocal message to NATO and America that our patience has run out. If even a single bullet of foreign forces crosses into our border, then two fires will be shot in retaliation," said the mass-circulation Urdu language Jang newspaper.
  The NATO strike has shifted attention away from what critics say is Pakistan's failure to go after militants.
  Pakistan vowed to back the U.S. global war on militancy launched after al Qaeda's September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, and won billions of dollars in aid in return.
  But the unstable, nuclear-armed country has often been described as an unreliable ally, and the United States has had to resort to controversial drone aircraft strikes against militants on Pakistani territory to pursue its aims.
  U.S. frustrations grew so much that Obama ordered the raid that killed bin Laden in Pakistan be kept secret, knowing it could make the United States even more unpopular in Pakistan.
  The NATO supply route is one of the levers Pakistan has over Washington.
  Pakistan is the route for nearly half of NATO supplies shipped overland to troops in Afghanistan. Land shipments account for about two thirds of the alliance's cargo.
  Pakistani Taliban militants opposed to Pakistan's alliance with the United States often open fire on trucks carrying supplies to NATO forces in Afghanistan.
  Thousands of trucks are now stranded near the border and in other areas, sitting ducks for militants.
  BEIRUT (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of Syrians protested on Monday in state-backed rallies against unprecedented economic sanctions imposed by the Arab League over President Bashar al-Assad's military crackdown on popular unrest.
  State television showed rallies " supporting national unity and rejecting foreign interference" in the capital Damascus and the second city of Aleppo. There were demonstrations also in the eastern cities of Deir al-Zor and Hasaka, the TV said.
  The Arab League approved the sanctions against Syria on Sunday, the toughest imposed against a member state, isolating Assad's government over repression now in its ninth month which the United Nations says has killed 3,500 people.
  The European Union said the sanctions were a further " reaction to the regime's brutality and unwillingness to change course," and Britain said they could help enlist support at the United Nations for action against Damascus.
  But Syria's closest trading partners, Lebanon and Iraq, said they would not support the Arab League measures, and the actual economic impact could be less severe than proposed.
  " We do not agree with these sanctions and we will not go along with them," Lebanese Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour told Reuters in Beirut.
  Lebanon believes along with Iraq that the sanctions - which fall short of a full trade embargo - could harm their interests. On Monday, the Arab League appealed to Damascus, offering " a review of all of the measures" if Syria drops its opposition to an Arab plan to end the crackdown.
  Anti-Assad activists in Syria said on Sunday that security forces had killed at least 24 civilians, many in a town north of Damascus that has become a focus for the protests. Others were killed in raids on towns in the province of Homs.
  FIGHTING BACK
  " The indications are not positive ... the sanctions are still economic but if there is no movement on the part of Syria then we have a responsibility as human beings to stop the killings," Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, Qatar's prime minister and foreign minister, told reporters.
  " Power is not worth anything when a ruler kills his people," he said after 19 of the League's 22 members meeting in Cairo on Sunday approved a decision to enforce sanctions immediately.
  Along with peaceful protests, some of Assad's opponents are fighting back. Army defectors are grouped loosely under the banner of a Syrian Free Army and more insurgent attacks on loyalist troops have been reported in the last several weeks.
  The sanctions include a travel ban on top Syrian officials and a freeze on assets related to Assad's government. They are aimed at halting dealings with Syria's central bank and investment in the country, Sheikh Hamad said.
  He added that non-member Turkey, which attended the Arab League meeting, would also honour some of the measures, dealing a further blow to a Syrian economy already reeling from sanctions imposed by the EU and United States.
  UNITED NATIONS " SILENCE"
  Arab nations wanted to avert a repeat of what happened in Libya, where a U.N. Security Council resolution led to NATO air strikes. Sheikh Hamad warned Arab states that the West could intervene in Syria if it felt the League was not serious.
  British Foreign Secretary William Hague said the Arab League sanctions demonstrate that " the regime's repeated failure to deliver on its promises will not be ignored."
  Hague said Britain hoped the move would help break what he called United Nations silence " on the ongoing brutality taking place in Syria," after Russia and China thwarted Western efforts to pass a U.N. Security Council resolution on Syria.
  The sanctions represented the toughest Arab League action against a member state since Egypt's expulsion in 1978 over its peace accord with Israel. Cairo was later readmitted.
  Assad, who inherited power from his father in 2000, said in an interview this month that he would continue the crackdown and blamed the unrest on outside pressure to " subjugate Syria."
  Many Arab leaders have become increasingly concerned by a series of " Arab Spring" revolts that have toppled the rulers of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.
  MERCHANT CLASS
  One Western diplomat said Assad could for now count on support from China and Russia at the United Nations but they may change position if he intensifies the crackdown and if the Arab League campaigns for international intervention.
  China and Russia have oil concessions in Syria. Moscow also has a little-used naval base in the country and provides military advisers to the Syrian army.
  " The sanctions are likely to lose Assad support among those in Syria who have been waiting to see whether he will be able to turn things around, such as merchants who could now see their businesses take more hits," the diplomat said.
  The president of the Union of Arab Banks, a division of the Arab League, said the sanctions would hit Syria's central bank, which has " big deposits" in the region, especially the Gulf.
  Arab ministers were spurred to action by worsening violence in Syria and by the Assad government's failure to meet a deadline to admit Arab League observers and take other steps to end its crackdown on the uprising.
  Syrian official media quoted an undated letter by Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem to the Arab League as saying Damascus viewed the plan for outside monitors as interference.
  Syrian officials blame the violence on armed groups targeting civilians. Government security forces say 1,100 of their members have been killed.
Technically:
• Singapore Telecom (ST SP S$3.02 - SELL) - Forming a large bearish flag pattern. Possibly embarking on new
downtrend.
• Yanlord Land Group (YLLG SP S$1.04 - SELL) - Tested 200-day SMA but failed to breakout above it.
Indicators issuing a short term signal.
• Lian Beng Group (LBG SP S$0.345 - SELL) - Recently violated 30-day and 50-day SMA, currently sitting
above 200-day SMA.
..... cimb
Crude oil rose significantly at the beginning of this week
Crude oil soared today to begin the week with high levels after it seen some kind of decline last week, as European leaders are willing to implement more actions and take more measures to stem the deepening debt crisis, and less supply from middle east may occur amid unrest there and sanctions on Syria, where unclear picture for the Iranian oil.
Arab league officials have imposed economic sanctions on Syria with Violence and roughness are the slogan of Syrian forces, which forced Arabs to impose these sanction, which is threatening the oil supply in Syria, where the Iranian supply future remain uncertain.
Crude soared significantly today to reach so far high of $99.88 after it opened the session at $97.59 which is the lowest level it recorded today, and it is currently trading positively around $99.70, and it may continue this upside recovery if it breached the $100 level.
Investors are optimistic at the beginning of the week looking for more measures that Europeans may take in order to stem the debt crisis, and measures to reorder the treaties in Europe, and organize the policies in the continent, which will make the European leaders more capable of doing something about the crisis.
Hopes are pushing commodities to the upside despite the uncertainty that intensified last week, but with rumors that the IMF would support Italy with almost 600 billion Euros which were denied by both the IMF and Italian officials, as Italian debt has rose significantly with high borrowing costs that reached to dangerous levels that urged Portugal, Greece and Ireland to call for bailouts.
Also in Europe, several reports said that European leaders have finally found decided how to leverage the firepower of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and would put the headlines on how to intervene in markets and supporting the European nations, as tomorrow the finance ministers had arranged a meeting to discuss these topics.
All what we see in Europe is hope but with no serious actions so far, and optimism is obvious in markets due to these hopes, but what would really happen in the coming months nobody knows, where Moody's hinted yesterday that all EU members' ratings are under pressure, and would be downgraded if the crisis continued to deepen and banking sector as well, and this move is preceded by S& P's move last week.
And in U.S., the black Friday showed positive signs with more spending from consumers, as retailers reported high sales in thanksgiving holiday on Friday, which indicated a better spending economic cycle and stronger economy.
And with a weakening dollar, crude is benefitting to reach so high levels and may break the $100 barrier, as it is hovering below this level, taking into account positive factors that pushed it to the upside.
Volatility may appear on crude trading ahead of the EU finance minister meeting tomorrow which is expected to be effective and have its impact on the crisis, and to show more acts that leader would take soon.
Ecpulse
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Gold Price Hits $1718, Investors Fear " Euro Breakup Endgame" , Italian Savers " Are Bond Buyers of Last Resort"
The Gold Price rallied to $1718 per ounce Monday morning in London - 2.1% up on Friday's close - while stocks and commodities also saw strong gains following news that leaders may be close to an agreement on the Eurozone rescue fund.
" News out of the US is also contributing to the more upbeat mood on markets, with preliminary reports from retailers suggesting that it was a good Black Friday weekend," says Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank, referring to reports that Americans spent over $52 billion in the days following Thanksgiving on Thursday.
" With a slew of US data flow out this week [however] this optimism over the outlook for US economy is sure to be tested in the coming days."
Despite this morning's rally, the Gold Price remains nearly 5% off its November high.
The Silver Price also gained this morning, climbing to $32.22 per ounce - 2.8% up from the end of last week.
Eurozone finance ministers are due to meet tomorrow amid reports that they will finalize a plan to leverage the European Financial Stability Facility. European leaders agreed last month that the EFSF could offer part-guarantees to private sector buyers of distressed Eurozone government bonds at auction.
Germany meantime is continuing to push for changes to European treaties, according to press reports on Monday. A number of potential treaties and agreements are reported to be under discussion, all aimed at creating more robust incentives for national governments to exercise fiscal discipline.
" The Germans have made up their minds... they are doing everything they can to push for [treaty change] as rapidly as possible," a senior European Union official told news agency Reuters.
European nations that argue for a larger European Central Bank role, or for jointly-issued 'Eurobonds', are " those countries that have to sort out their budget problems and [have chosen] to misunderstand that they have to make more efforts," German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview on Sunday.
" The goal," Schaeuble added, " is for the member states of the common currency to create their own Stability Union and to concentrate on that."
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development 's latest 'Economic Outlook', published today, calls for " a substantial relaxation of monetary conditions" in the Eurozone. The OECD has cut its global growth forecast and predicts recession for the Eurozone and the UK - adding that fiscal tightening could also " tip the US economy into recession" .
Eurozone contagion is " rising and hitting probably Germany as well," Pier Carlo Padoan, OECD chief economist, said Monday.
" So the first thing, the absolute priority, is to stop that and in the immediate [term] the only actor that can do that is the ECB."
An auction of German government bonds 'failed' last week when only €3.9 billion of 10-Year bunds were sold - versus a maximum target of €6 billion.
" Markets continue to move faster than politicians," says Mansoor Mohi-uddin, head of foreign exchange strategy at UBS in Singapore - adding that investors have begun to " price in the endgame" for the single currency.
" Failure to come up with a comprehensive solution on December 9 [the next European leaders' summit] is certainly possible," adds Joachim Fels, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.
" We believe that it would open up a much darker scenario that, eventually, could entail a breakup of the Euro."
Ratings agency Moody's meantime says that its " central scenario remains that the Euro area will be preserved without further widespread defaults" but warns that " even this 'positive' scenario carries very negative rating implications in the interim period."
Elsewhere in Europe, the International Monetary Fund has denied a report in Italian newspaper La Stampa claiming that it was preparing to lend Italy €600 billion at interest rates of 4-5% - enough to cover Italy's financing needs for around a year-and-a-half.
The Italian Banking Association meantime is today promoting 'Buy a Bond' day, encouraging ordinary Italians to lend their savings to the government. The initiative is supported by the country's professional soccer players.
" Italian savers may be bondholders of last resort as banks and institutional investors are reducing holdings of government bonds," says Wolfram Mrowetz of Milanese investment firm Alisei SIM.
Here in the UK, chancellor George Osborne is expected to announce so-called 'credit easing' measures - designed to boost lending to small businesses by offering guarantees - in Tuesday's autumn budget report to parliament.
" We are making available £20 billion for the National Loan Guarantee Scheme," Osborne told a BBC interviewer on Sunday.
" However it sits within an envelope that could be as large as £40 billion."
The British Chamber of Commerce meantime has today predicted the Bank of England will increase the size of its quantitative easing program - through which the Bank buys assets (mainly government bonds) from institutions such as banks and pension funds - from the current £275 billion to £325 billion.
Over in Australia, Gold Mining output fell to around 66 tonnes in the third quarter of the year - down 2.4% from Q2 - according to an industry survey published Sunday.
Melbourne based mining consultants Surbiton Associates, which carried out the survey, explain the drop was party caused by some producers choosing to process lower ore grades - while preserving high grade ore in case of a fall in the Gold Price.
Crude oil's strong rebound and break of 100.15 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 103.37 is finished at 94.99 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 103.37 first. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 114.83 resistance next. on the downside, below 94.99 will dampen the immediate bullish case and bring more consolidations. But after all, downside is expected to be contained by 89.16/17 cluster support (50% retracement of 74.95 to 103.37) and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, current development indicates the fall from 114.83 has finished at 74.95. The structure suggests it's merely a correction or part of a consolidation pattern. Hence, rise from 33.2 is not finished yet. As long as 89.16/7 support holds, we'd now favor a break of 114.83 resistance to resume the rally from 33.2. Meanwhile, break of 64.23 support is needed to confirm completion of the whole rise from 33.2. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bullish in crude oil.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart
 
Oil Breaches 100 Again on Syrian Sanctions, Elite Bond Rumor
Crude oil jumps sharply today on Syrian Sanctions and news out of Eurozone and breaches 100 level. Gold also rebounds strongly on dollar's weakness and is back above 1700 level. The Arab League overwhelmingly approved sanctions against Syria over the weekend, by 19-3 votes. Qatari Foreign Minister Hamad bin Jassim announced the sanction in Cairo aiming to " avoid any suffering for the Syrian people" , and those measures include cutting off transactions with Syrian central bank and suspending Arab government funding for Syrian projects. That's another move in current wave of international pressure to end its violent suppressions of protests against President Bashar Al-Assad, which lead to at least 3500 death according to UN. Unrests in North Africa and Middle East led to almost entirely halted oil production in Tunisia and Egypt.
Overall market sentiments were lifted today on news report that IMF was preparing a bailout package for Italy after the country's benchmark 10 year yield continued to stay above the unsustainable 7% level. The package would amount to up to EUR 600b and there were discussions on what form of support could be offered. However, the rumor was later dismissed by IMF as it denied of any discussions on bailout program for Italy.
Later in the day, there were also rumors that Germany was considering to jointly issue bonds with France, Finland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Austria, the Eurozone's six triple A rated countries. The join bonds, called " elite-bonds" , are expected to stabilize AAA countries and could be used to raise funds to aid troubling nations including Italy and Spain. Yield could be at around 2-2.5%, slightly higher than German bunds. Though, Germany Finance Ministry denied the speculations.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects sharp deterioration in European growth next year while US is expected to gain momentum mildly. Overall Eurozone GDP is expected to slow from this year's 1.6% to 2012's 0.2%. OECD warned that recovery would stall amid escalating debt crisis. Even Germany's growth is expected to slow from 3.0% in 2011 to 0.6% in 2011. UK's growth is expected to slow from 0.9% in 2011 to 0.5% in 2012 on weak international demand and contraction in consumer spending and further QE is warranted from BoE. Meanwhile, US growth is expected to accelerate from 1.7% in 2011 to 2.0% in 2012 but that would only hold if Washington break their impasse over the federal budget. Meanwhile, OECD also expect China's growth to slow from 9.3% in 2011 to 8.5% in 2012 on global headwinds.
Moody's warned that the current sovereign debt crisis is now " threatening the credit standing of all European sovereigns." The rating agency noted that according to its " central scenario" , the " euro area will be preserved without further widespread defaults" . But even in that case, there are still " very negative rating implications in the interim period" . Meanwhile, the probability of " multiple defaults" is " no longer negligible" . And " a series of defaults would also significantly increase the likelihood of one or more members not simply defaulting, but also leaving the euro area."
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold recovers back to above 1700 today but is still limited well below 1736.6 support turned resistance. Hence, near term outlook remains bearish and fall from 1804.4 is still in favor to continue. Below 1667.1 will target 61.85 retracement of 1535 to 1804.4 at 1637.9 first. As noted before, whole rebound from 1535 has completed with three waves up to 1804.4. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 1535 support. On the upside, though, break of 1736.6 will turn focus back to 1804.4 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that correction from 1923.7 is going to extend with another fall. However, there is still no clear sign of long term trend reversal yet and price actions from 1923.7 would still be finally unfolded as correction/consolidation only. Hence, while the fall from 1804.4 might extend further lower, we'll look for reversal signal again inside 1478.3/1577.4 support zone. Above 1804.4, on the other hand, will target a test on 1923.7 high.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Singapore, Malaysia central banks sign liquidity agreement
Pivot: 2800
Our preference: Short positions below 2800 with targets @ 2576 & 2525 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 2800 look for further upside with 2905 & 3010 as targets.
Comment: as long as 2800 is resistance, likely decline to 2576.
Key levels
3010
2905
2800
2683.44 last
2576
2525
2500
Eurozone puts top economies on edge of recession: OECD
PARIS - The eurozone crisis is now one step away from plunging advanced economies into an abysss of recession and even depression, with waves of bankruptcies and wealth destruction in Europe, the OECD warned on Monday.
The eurozone is already in slight recession and the credibility of governments to keep the eurozone balanced on a high wire has been stretched to the limit: one false step now could tip the United States, Japan and advanced economies into a new grim landscape.
Excessively tight fiscal policy is sending the US economy towards stagnation, the OECD warned a week after failure of congressional efforts to broker a deal on spending cuts and stimulus measures.
'The euro-area crisis represents the key risk to the world economy at present,' the OECD said in an unusually stark outlook report. 'A large negative event would... most likely send the OECD area as a whole into recession.'
Even if policymakers manage to avoid the worst, the eurozone is in for a brief recession and the United States for a period of slow growth, with emerging countries also hit.
China will slow but still show strong growth with moderate inflation.
But the OECD, forecasting OECD-area growth of 1.9 per cent this year and 1.6 per cent next year, said that if US fiscal policy were eased, US growth would be 1.7 per cent in 2011 and 2.0 per cent in 2012.
The eurozone was set for growth of 1.6 per cent this year and next year just 0.2 per cent, the OECD said, but also stressed there was still time for decisive action by policymakers to shore up stricken credibility and avert a far worse outlook.
The European Central Bank should buy up devalued government debt bonds in huge quantities and interest rates must fall, the OECD said, taking the opposite line to Germany which has so far rejected extra bond purchases, arguing that the priority is for countries in trouble to reform their economies. -- AFP
 
Source: Business Times Breaking News
Strong Sing dollar key to economic growth
SINGAPORE - A strong Singapore dollar is key to the country's economic growth as it ensures the price stability that will enable long-term planning, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Monday.
'A low-inflation environment supports long-term planning and economic growth and preserves real incomes and wealth. Key to this is a strong Singapore dollar,' Mr Lee said at a dinner to mark the Monetary Authority of Singapore's 40th anniversary.
The Singapore dollar has fallen about 1.7 per cent against the greenback since the start of the year and is currently near the bottom of its trading band, according to most economists' estimate.
Mr Lee also said safeguarding the real value of Singapore's foreign reserves has become more challenging.
'In an environment of lower returns and higher risk, it is all the more important for MAS to preserve the value of our OFR (official foreign reserves), to maintain confidence and deter speculation in the Singapore dollar.'
Singapore says it has official foreign reserves of more than US$200 billion, but most economists believe the figure is much larger.
Besides the reserves held by MAS, Singapore's main sovereign wealth fund, the Government of Singapore Investment Corp, is estimated to have over US$300 million in assets, according to a recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch report. -- REUTERS
 
Source: Business Times Breaking News