Courage Marine   

Courage Marine--- A courageous play

Hi All,

For those who had the guts to take positions on CM during the doom past few weeks, I am happy for you......I am happy whenever fellow stock investors make money.

But here are some data for you to consider what you want to do with CM down the road.

Fridays's closing of 16.5cts was done only at closing and 5 lots were done.

EPS for FY05 was 4.82cts and FY04 5.2cts.....these were historically fantastic years for shipping due to unprecendented freight rates.

1Q 06 result..eps 0.8cts and NAV 10.8cts. Taking an optimistic forecast for FY06 using straightline extrapolation of 1Q eps...FY06 eps forecast in comes at 2.4cts, then those who are talking of CM price going to 50cts is looking at P/E of  20.8x. 

This P/E seems quite demanding under the current condition.

Hope this helps those who are undecided what to do next with their CM shares.

 

Trade with care, anything above 17c for now will be a bonus to investors!

 

yes, you are right. if you want to buy or sell. just do it but becareful....... 

 

Hi , Yonger ppl said is just ppl said...what we can do is just listen only n no need to follow.....You know.. like what i sait CM may go to 50c or mayb more end of this year .haha. u belive or not. mayb true. who know anything will happen  in the stock market.....

 

GREAT NEWS....50C OR MORE

 

I say CM may go to 50c end of the year.....

 

Talk talk talk n see see see then wait wait wait now fr 14c back to 16c.....

 

same here bought in 300 CM shares at 14.5c at May. I think can wait for a while.no worry....

 

i had bought in the CM share at  0.145c at may, so time to sell?

 

InvesToMan, are you vested in this stock?

 

For those who didn't take profit earlier.....this may be a good chance to do so if CM move above 17c!

 

Hey ladies and gentleman, it has been a long time since I last contributed to this thread after starting this thread numerous of weeks way back. Well what we can see now is a pretty fundamental solid company which is affected by short term fluctuation in freight rates.

My strong advice for all is to trade with discern when it comes to courage marine because freight rate does not fully dictate although to some extent the future of the company. It is the great synergies between the company and its customers, efficient cost structure and a highly experienced management team that drives the future of it.

Courage Marine certainly has alot of room for growth in the middle east as Nostradamus had mentioned. The strong demand for cement and limestone which are raw materials will definitely offer some prospective insights into the future for all Courage investors. Do maintain a Hold on this stock for those who are vested, do not sell it off too soon.

Trade with caution

 

Courage intends to grow its presence in the Middle East to take advantage of the growing global energy and infrastructure demand. Meeting the demand for cement and limestone is an example of how Courage's strategy of having more spot than term contracts earns it higher margins. This is as freight rates on the Middle East routes are generally 20% over those in Asia such as the Taiwan-China route.

More details here:

SGX

 

The dividend for 2006 (based on 2005's performance) was $20.80 per 1000 shares.   It must be the dividend guaranteed for 2007(which will be based on 2006's), which is supporting today's price level of 0.15 to 0.155 cents, with the number of  "hard-up sellers" becoming lesser and lesser  every day.   It's not wishful thinking, you would agree with me,  that the dividend may be $15 per 1000 shares, which is equivalent to 10% of  the $150 payable per 1000 shares. The profit for 2006 cannot contract by more than 50%, can it? Isn't the dividend better than the 2% to 2.5% interest paid by most banks. Another point is that the high oil price could have been factored into the new contracts which means CM's profit cannot be unduly affected every year. What is your view?

 

hikitty, I'm not suggesting the CM will plunge worthless. All I'm trying to say is that CM will make less money this year and if we work out the yield, it wouldn't be 10%!! Many ppl still have the impression that the yield will still be 10% for FY06!! Well, perhaps they are still right if CM share price drop to a lower level!!

 

The dividend payout is pretty good, that's ard 10% if u buy at the IPO price.

 

Thanks BullRun for the "learned" clarification.  My point is there shd be a support level for CM.   It shd not be all gloom for CM as according to its  annual report for 2005, it has been  profitable since its inception and it will propose (according to its IPO intention) a dividend payout of not less than 50% of its 2006 net profit (dividend payout for 2005 was $20.80 per 1000 shares). .  

 

scotty, http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

u can find out more from there.....

hikitty, CM share price corrected not becasue of contra or margin players..it corrected mainly due to the poor Q1 result and weak BDI.  It will be wrong to imagine that share price will move up if company not affected by fiasco like ACCS...etc...Don't think or imagine, sound investment need to base on facts.  For the case of CM, the DBI need to break 3000 pts for them to perform better  than Q1 and 4000 pts for them to have performance similar to last year. And this need to happen very soon as CM vessels are all quite old already so even if the BDI hit 4000 in few years time(very like since we need to wait for the next cycle  and there are many new vessels added each day).....they may not be able to benefit since most of the vessels will need to be sent for scrap by then.

 

hello bullrun and shplayer,

what is BDI? Can explain to me?

 

With volume drying up every day and contra or margin players being sidelined, how much more can CM downtrend?  Unless CM is another ACCS or CAO fiasco, the downtrend should reverse soon with the evident absence of contra players.  Don't forget that 2006 is still a healthy market unlike "the 2002 World Cup's when it was reeling from the dot.com bust." (extracted from a write-up by Chow Penn Nee in Business Today ("Today"  of 9 June )