China Energy   

Upside or downside

whoa there was a married deal of 6423 lots done at 1.282.......

 

<BEIJING, April 29 (Xinhua) -- The required reserve ratio for financial institutions engaged in deposit business will be raised by 0.5 percentage point as of May 15 to 11 percent, the People's Bank of China said on Sunday.

    This is the fourth time the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio this year and the seventh time since last year in an effort to rein in excessive liquidity and cool the booming economy.>



But the China index is up at noon today - unaffected by this piece of news?

 

Seem that CE fails to hold at 1.30 level. down to 1.26 this morning before picking up at 1.29.

Anyone can comment out there? Anything to do with China cooling the economy?

Thanks.

 

Yes agreed. Seem stagant at 1.35 level for few days after the AGM.

While others are moving together with STI index, CE seem sideline...Anyone care to comment what will be the ideal entry price?

Thanks.

 

CE stabilised at 1.35 - 1.37.

 

kilroy has made a wise move, different people has diff risk appetite. As long everybody make money, it should be goooood...

Remember, the first principle of investing is to make profit $$$$$.......


Current situation for CE :-

- Getting more votatile as it's going to test its historical high 1.47.

- MARket getting very HOT!

- worry of china raising it's interest rate ( economy overheated), watch out in may.


 

 

 

hi kilroy,  i am currently still waiting to enter this counter.  i dun want to repeat my mistake again to enter a counter in its all time high price just to entertain my impatience (as in my ferrochina, now i m stilll waiting to break even )

please keep us updated in this thread when you think this  small cycle has bottomed up. thanks.

 

Some stocks cycle very big and some very small. China Energy can consider a small cycle as it go from 1.47 to 0.98 and now to current price. I believe this is due to it volatility so I wont be surprise if it goes back down again.  Everytime I enter a trade, I put myself capital at risk. So the quickly I take my profit (when the indicator tells me to), the lesser risk I am exposed.

While waiting patiently for the indicators to show me the buy signal, I have 15 other stocks to track its cycle as well.  These two months have been quite difficult as most of the stock prices are at their all time high and overbought.  I dont go chasing the stock but if i do, the company has to be fundamentally sound and with good dividend payout.  I also have other investment vehicles other then stocks if I dont see any buy signal.

I cannot imagine buying a stock at its all time high price and thereafter seeing the price drop and have to wait for god knows when to be able to sell it for a tidy profit. Worse case if it doesnt have good dividend yield.

Good luck with your China Energy~  I just treat my family for dinner at Geylang Lor 3, Sha Tin Rest tonight.  Hope you can enjoy your profit with your love ones soon.

 

hi kilroy, glad that u not the type to look back and have regrets. life too short for things like that.

or rather, sgx has too many counters to have regrets (can always look at others to make profits ;)) hahaha.

i'm still holding on to the initial lots bought. but had recently contra off those i bought the wk b4. no more ammu to pick up so have to contra off even if i know it has further upside to it. sigh. that's life. wah, u looking to buy in at last support px? wah wah. i doubt that will come soon thou. but if i'm wrong and it comes (soon), pls. inform via this thread so that i may join u. kekeke.

thanks in adv. hope u had a gd wkend.

 

CE will be testing its historical high soon... current market is really volatile...those who just got in better hold tight.

 

Thanks for the advise...Have vested interest. Bought in 1.37 today for long term.

Have faith in the prospects of this company... 

 

No lah. Got a decent profit so I wont regret.  I will only regret if I have to sell because I needed to cut my loses due to a bad decision made.

I hope you this counter make lotsda of $$ka-ching$$ for you too. :)

I will buy again at the last support 1.17 thereabout.

 

alvinwong1012, the fact that it did not take a beating during the bloodbath already spoke vol. of ML's report. You mean you expect it goes up to near 1.88 range just because of the release of report? Always take the TP set by research with a pinch of salt.

 

bunbun, good to hear that we are in this 2gther. Me vested too.

 

kilroy, regretted selling? now sitting at $1.37. if dip lower, can consider buying back.

i'm still vested in this.

 

Yesterday, Merrill Lynch came out a report on CE that the TP is now 1.88 with good prospects and high demand for alternate energy. Anyone out there care to share why the price remain stagnant at 1.32-1.33 level?

Thanks.

 

Placed my SELL order the night before for 1.35.  Have been unsuccessful with the SELL order at 1.35 for the past two sessions as the price seems to resist 1.35.  Today's opening FILLED my SELL order for 1.35 but it ended at a disappointing 1.32.  ADX shows strong uptrend and CCI is overbought. I sold it because a little bird told me to.  Market sectors are all RED today. Buying opportunities ahead.

 

One month ago, i posted that CE is a good buy. Now? I still think it is....why?

Few reasons :-

- China huge demand for energy and clean energy

- CE is currently the largest DME producer in china 

- Ask yourself, at current capacity 150k mtpa DME, the profit is xxx ( go and check yrself) ,  what if they expand to 450k mtpa in the first half 07? what if they expand to 2 million mtpa in th next year ? 

Risks :-

- Cock up in the managment of the company

- Deal of expansion ( to 450k) did not realised in first half 07 

- China Market major correction 

 Also, best to have holding power and for holding slightly longer time.


 

 

1 of the main producers of DME. DME supposedly to be a 'cleaner' fuel alternative as compared to petrol and diesel coz give leser by-products. for China who is now facing pollution problems in its 1st- and 2nd-tier cities, has mentioned before on its national tv that it will take this problem seriously and find solutions for it.

Am vested in it and along the way, played contra :)

Good to know that ML released report w target of $1.88

 

Sorry, re-post again because the editor didn't come on and I believe it's difficult to read w/o the paragraphing and highlights.

 

It rises today against the drop in broad market because Merrill Lynch ML says "Early bird catches the worm;a new BUY" Investment summary:

We initiate coverage on China Energy with a Buy recommendation and a price objective of S$1.88. The investment merits of China Energy can be summarized as follow: Rising crude prices and advances in DME process technologies have led to the expansion of DME usage in various applications including LPG blendstock and potentially as natural gas supplement and diesel substitute. However, DME production capacity in China is still at a lowly 300,000tpa (est.). With a potential DME market of 16 million tpa, China would have to rapidly expand its DME production to meet the growing demand.

 

Set up in 2000, China Energy (CEGY) has successfully progressed from its pilot plants to commercial-scale DME production. It is currently the largest DME producer in China with patented technology, established customer base and strong support from the government. The company has 150,000tpa DME and 250,000tpa methanol production as of end FY06.

 

We project CEGY to achieve 85% EPS CAGR over the next three years with the following growth strategies:

- Acquire 450,000tpa DME capacity by 1H07

- Build new 1,200,000 tpa DME capacity by FY08 

- Build another 600,000 tpa DME capacity by FY09 

- Continuous process innovation to reduce operating costs

- Develop new DME markets through partnerships with PRC government

At 11xFY08E earnings, China Energy trades below its PRC peers, which are priced at an average forward PE of 18x as well as Japanese alternative Energy plays trading at 27x forward P/E. Our priced objective is based on DCF valuation (using 14% WACC and 1% terminal growth) and translates to 40% upside over the next 12 months.

 

It rises today against the drop in broad market because Merrill Lynch ML says "Early bird catches the worm;a new BUY" Investment summary We initiate coverage on China Energy with a Buy recommendation and a price objective of S$1.88. The investment merits of China Energy can be summarized as follow: Rising crude prices and advances in DME process technologies have led to the expansion of DME usage in various applications including LPG blendstock and potentially as natural gas supplement and diesel substitute. However, DME production capacity in China is still at a lowly 300,000tpa (est.). With a potential DME market of 16 million tpa, China would have to rapidly expand its DME production to meet the growing demand. Set up in 2000, China Energy (CEGY) has successfully progressed from its pilot plants to commercial-scale DME production. It is currently the largest DME producer in China with patented technology, established customer base and strong support from the government. The company has 150,000tpa DME and 250,000tpa methanol production as of end FY06. We project CEGY to achieve 85% EPS CAGR over the next three years with the following growth strategies: �� Acquire 450,000tpa DME capacity by 1H07 �� Build new 1,200,000 tpa DME capacity by FY08 �� Build another 600,000 tpa DME capacity by FY09 �� Continuous process innovation to reduce operating costs �� Develop new DME markets through partnerships with PRC government At 11xFY08E earnings, China Energy trades below its PRC peers, which are priced at an average forward PE of 18x as well as Japanese alternative Energy plays trading at 27x forward P/E. Our priced objective is based on DCF valuation (using 14% WACC and 1% terminal growth) and translates to 40% upside over the next 12 months.