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xploration companies can make money, be it that crude oil prices r @ USD20 or 200.. as long as they can cover their capital investment ..
but @ 200 refineries have to pass on the costs to consumers...they are stuck in between, if consumers don't buy..no point having high crude oil prices.. even if u have exploration..what profits goes into exploration comes out from refining..
lookcc ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 19:51) Posted:
crude at usd120, usd at 106 jpy n 0.65 eur.........shud b good 4 long time 4 oil exporters n oil refineries (spc included), barrring deflation/recession in usa or any occurence which cud cause global markets 2 nose-dive/crash.
Livermore ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 18:05) Posted:
| Do you think SPC make more money when crude oil price is at US$20 or at US$200 |
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Jet fuel price is at a all time high. Naptha price produced by refineries is high and that is why petrochemical companies profits are being squeezed as their feedstock is naptha and their product price like plastic don't play "catch up"
One should realise that when it comes to feedstock there are cheap ones and there are more expensive ones.
this burger gonna be below 6 by next week sian?? don't do anything now, stay side line and observe. take care, no hurry.
Agree with ViperG that ideas128 seems to be bias toward presenting a negative analysis.
Surely you did not miss the fact that profit from upstream was at about 40% for Q108?
Associating higher CO with lower RM seems to be the correct logic but the RM I saw is not so clear cut. At this very moment RM for jet fuel is at record high of $40 while fuel oil is at an all time low of -$25.
idesa168 ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 22:30) Posted:
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paiseh if I had sent the wrong signal...I did not have the intension to encourage or discourage buying and selling....my previous posting was just my analysis about the future of SPC against high CO.
What price is a good entry. I must say any price is a good entry, depends on your time horizon. Historically most share prices will go up in years or decades...hehehe
ViperG ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 22:10) Posted:
| I168...u have shorted is it? why keep discouraging ppl to buy? Anyway, price has been hammered down quite badly. As long SPC could close one-two days higher than open, i will say SPC 6.4 is a good buy |
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Yes, Upstream (US) revenue is small compared to Downstream (DS) revenue....but their profit contribution has been proportionately higher.
Period 1Q07 FY07 1Q08
REV %
US % 0.5% 1.7% 3.5%
DS% 99.5% 98.1% 96.5%
PROFIT%
US % 4.5% 10.3% 38.8%
DS % 95.4% 102.9% 82.9%
Note: Sum of some of the figures do not add up to 100% due to some adjustments at the corporate level.
Take note of 1Q08, compared to that of 1Q and FY 2007, the US profit contribution has become very significant towards SPC's overall performance.
idesa168 ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 21:41) Posted:
Since SPC's core business is still downstream, high crude oil will not benefit SPC as the cost of refinery will be increased. High CO will benefit SPC's upstream business which accounts for less than 5% of the total income. Although there are signs that SPC is gearing up for the E&P activities, for SPC to produce result and higher income from the activities still have some years to go.
SPC being the only oil company listed in SGX, more or less a proxy to the oil play in SGX. When CO is up, SPC's share price will follow suit. It's just the psychology phenomenon of human perception, and nothing more. In the long run, high CO will definitely dampen SPC's income, and will eventually affect the share price.
Just my view... |
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paiseh if I had sent the wrong signal...I did not have the intension to encourage or discourage buying and selling....my previous posting was just my analysis about the future of SPC against high CO.
What price is a good entry. I must say any price is a good entry, depends on your time horizon. Historically most share prices will go up in years or decades...hehehe
ViperG ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 22:10) Posted:
I168...u have shorted is it? why keep discouraging ppl to buy? Anyway, price has been hammered down quite badly. As long SPC could close one-two days higher than open, i will say SPC 6.4 is a good buy.
idesa168 ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 21:41) Posted:
Since SPC's core business is still downstream, high crude oil will not benefit SPC as the cost of refinery will be increased. High CO will benefit SPC's upstream business which accounts for less than 5% of the total income. Although there are signs that SPC is gearing up for the E&P activities, for SPC to produce result and higher income from the activities still have some years to go.
SPC being the only oil company listed in SGX, more or less a proxy to the oil play in SGX. When CO is up, SPC's share price will follow suit. It's just the psychology phenomenon of human perception, and nothing more. In the long run, high CO will definitely dampen SPC's income, and will eventually affect the share price.
Just my view... |
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I168...u have shorted is it? why keep discouraging ppl to buy? Anyway, price has been hammered down quite badly. As long SPC could close one-two days higher than open, i will say SPC 6.4 is a good buy.
idesa168 ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 21:41) Posted:
Since SPC's core business is still downstream, high crude oil will not benefit SPC as the cost of refinery will be increased. High CO will benefit SPC's upstream business which accounts for less than 5% of the total income. Although there are signs that SPC is gearing up for the E&P activities, for SPC to produce result and higher income from the activities still have some years to go.
SPC being the only oil company listed in SGX, more or less a proxy to the oil play in SGX. When CO is up, SPC's share price will follow suit. It's just the psychology phenomenon of human perception, and nothing more. In the long run, high CO will definitely dampen SPC's income, and will eventually affect the share price.
Just my view... |
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I guess many think that high crude oil price is negative for refineries
there4 not good 4 shorting 2morrow?????????????
Since SPC's core business is still downstream, high crude oil will not benefit SPC as the cost of refinery will be increased. High CO will benefit SPC's upstream business which accounts for less than 5% of the total income. Although there are signs that SPC is gearing up for the E&P activities, for SPC to produce result and higher income from the activities still have some years to go.
SPC being the only oil company listed in SGX, more or less a proxy to the oil play in SGX. When CO is up, SPC's share price will follow suit. It's just the psychology phenomenon of human perception, and nothing more. In the long run, high CO will definitely dampen SPC's income, and will eventually affect the share price.
Just my view...
Correction............RM for
fuel oil for April 08 is at minus $25
jkbk007 ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 19:17) Posted:
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From yesterday BT news - PetroChina diverts fuel oil VLCC to S'pore
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Fuel oil market has been very weak for Q2 but overall RM for April 08 was better than April 07. RM for April 08 is at minus $25. If you have read the news, you will also know that RM for jet fuel is at around $35
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sorry....stagflation not deflation.
crude at usd120, usd at 106 jpy n 0.65 eur.........shud b good 4 long time 4 oil exporters n oil refineries (spc included), barrring deflation/recession in usa or any occurence which cud cause global markets 2 nose-dive/crash.
Livermore ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 18:05) Posted:
Do you think SPC make more money when crude oil price is at US$20 or at US$200?
ozone2002 ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 15:56) Posted:
| oil hit $200..business will crumble...economies will crumble... whole world in deep recession.. doubt SPC can fly upwards if that happens.. |
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thks, 007.
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From yesterday BT news - PetroChina diverts fuel oil VLCC to S'pore
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Fuel oil market has been very weak for Q2 but overall RM for April 08 was better than April 07. RM for April 08 is at minus $25. If you have read the news, you will also know that RM for jet fuel is at around $35
ur post "fuel oil market in asia is set to worsen with the ARRIVAL of new a large load of fuel oil FROM CHINA".......can u kindly state from where u obtain tis piece of news?????
jkbk007 ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 18:15) Posted:
Looks to me the selldown is due to weakness in techical and fundamental. Latest US gasoline inventory points to weakening gasoline demand in US. Fuel oil market in Asia is set to worsen with the arrival of new a large load of fuel oil from China....... |
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Looks to me the selldown is due to weakness in techical and fundamental. Latest US gasoline inventory points to weakening gasoline demand in US. Fuel oil market in Asia is set to worsen with the arrival of new a large load of fuel oil from China.......
Do you think SPC make more money when crude oil price is at US$20 or at US$200?
ozone2002 ( Date: 05-Jun-2008 15:56) Posted:
| oil hit $200..business will crumble...economies will crumble... whole world in deep recession.. doubt SPC can fly upwards if that happens.. |
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tis counter is 4 shortists???????
