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China Minzhong (Maybank KE)
Will 29% Be The End?
GIC passed the baton to Indofood.
stake in China Minzhong last Friday through a marriage trade at a price
of SGD1.12. This confirms our view of two weeks ago that Indofood will
not be satisfied with only 15% control of Minzhong. We view this
transaction positively. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at
SGD1.36, pegged to 5x PER.
Indofood bought the entire GIC’s
Share overhang fades.
shares in China Minzhong in Dec 2012, there were still two big pre-IPO
investors, namely CMIA and GIC, holding an aggregate amount of
126m shares. The transaction drastically reduced this holding to only
32m shares for CMIA alone. Post the transaction, Indofood will hold
29% of China Minzhong, followed by Templeton (11%) and CMIA (5%).
After Olympus Capital placed out its 57m
Wish for a more successful marriage this time around.
not the first time that the Salim Group (the parent company of Indofood)
acquires a Chinese company. It acquired six Chinese consumer goods
companies in 2004-2006. Some of those acquisitions turned out to be
unsuccessful. But this time around, Indofood adopted a more cautious
way in our view by acquiring only 29% of the target company in the first
step rather than taking over majority holdings. In addition, compared
with the previous acquisitions that we mentioned above, China
Minzhong is a much bigger company and we believe that Indofood’s
investment in Minzhong is also much bigger than its previous deals.
Thus we believe Indofood will treat it more seriously this time.
In fact this is
Indofood’s eagerness to secure raw material supply.
increased its share holding from 15% to 29% only two weeks after the
placement, which shows its eagerness to secure raw material supply
from China Minzhong. The potential revenue which Indofood can bring
to Minzhong could be substantial.
Indofood
29% control may still not be the end.
holding to 29%, we think it might still not be the end if Indofood wants to
have an absolute control. We maintain our BUY rating and target price
unchanged at SGD1.36.
Although Indofood increased its
China Minzhong – Summary Earnings Table
FYE June (CNY m) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013F FY2014F FY2015F
Revenue 1929.2 2568.8 3344.0 3641.9 4068.8
EBITDA 769.6 904.0 1155.0 1269.7 1404.4
Recurring Net Profit 566.7 681.6 810.8 894.2 1031.8
Recurring Basic EPS (fen) 86.5 103.7 123.1 135.5 156.2
EPS Growth (%) 29.1 19.9 18.7 10.1 15.3
PER (x) 5.90 4.92 4.14 3.76 3.27
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.56 4.31 2.92 2.41 1.62
P/BV (x) 1.15 1.14 0.81 0.58 0.49
Net gearing 5.7% 15.3% 0.7% -4.9% -15.8%
ROE (%) 21.8% 21.0% 19.2% 16.9% 16.5%
ROA (%) 16.7% 14.9% 14.4% 13.9% 13.8%
Consensus Net Profit (CNY m) n.a n.a 758.6 822.2 1007.0
Source: Company, Maybank KE estimates
bid price 1.15 now sianz
i sold my sink to load into china minzhong!!!
ynnek1267 ( Date: 03-Mar-2013 22:18) Posted:
If tomorrow drop, nobody will load lah.
But not possible to drop lah. Wahahaha! !!!@
US investment fund leh. Salim group leh. U thought sam goi few million investment meh. Including gic share. Indo food dump close to 200mil inside already.
terencee ( Date: 03-Mar-2013 22:13) Posted:
nek nek.. dun like that say la.. Tell them its going to drop..  Since thats what everyone wants to hear.
I too hope it drop so I can buy more to long.. Which I think is rather impossible at this point of time. |
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Anson, cmia, franklin and indomee tomorrow price 1.50~~~
besides 1.2 is already support. Don't think there's even small room to go down a little bit. Can try queue but you won't get it
ynnek1267 ( Date: 03-Mar-2013 22:18) Posted:
If tomorrow drop, nobody will load lah.
But not possible to drop lah. Wahahaha! !!!@
US investment fund leh. Salim group leh. U thought sam goi few million investment meh. Including gic share. Indo food dump close to 200mil inside already.
terencee ( Date: 03-Mar-2013 22:13) Posted:
nek nek.. dun like that say la.. Tell them its going to drop.. Since thats what everyone wants to hear.
I too hope it drop so I can buy more to long.. Which I think is rather impossible at this point of time. |
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Tomorrow start at 1.4 to 1.5, no chance for you to load lah. Only existing shareholders like me can laugh lah. Wahahaha! !!!!!
If tomorrow drop, nobody will load lah.
But not possible to drop lah. Wahahaha! !!!@
US investment fund leh. Salim group leh. U thought sam goi few million investment meh. Including gic share. Indo food dump close to 200mil inside already.
terencee ( Date: 03-Mar-2013 22:13) Posted:
nek nek.. dun like that say la.. Tell them its going to drop.. Since thats what everyone wants to hear.
I too hope it drop so I can buy more to long.. Which I think is rather impossible at this point of time. |
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nek nek.. dun like that say la.. Tell them its going to drop..
Since thats what everyone wants to hear.
I too hope it drop so I can buy more to long.. Which I think is rather impossible at this point of time.
Wahahahah, you got no eye right Wahahaha!!!!!
Who is key substantial holding reducing stake? Olymplus? GIC? They are past tense.
Look at who are present tense. SALIM GROUP AND FRANKLIN RESOURCE!!!! Do you know who is Salim Group. 200million population in Indonesian know it. Who is GIC, only less than 3milliion in singapore know it. Do you know who is Franklin Resource? Almost all US investment company know it who who 30billion Market Capital in US market.
Sleeping ah. Wake up lah!!!!!
Franklin group keep on increasing their holding. Look at friday shareholding change in major shareholders. except GIC is kicked out, all substantial share holder increasing no of share in past 1 year.
Again Sleeping ah. Wake up lah. Your below post will be tomorrow joke. Wahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!
FearValueGreed ( Date: 03-Mar-2013 19:20) Posted:
short term this one will drop.
TA not looking good.
all key substantial holding reducing stake.
doesnt sound good.
Maybe they are luring Indo to launch a bid for takeover by giving them a small bait first |
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GIC has sold some of their stake in GLP and now chinaminzhong. Looks more like they are trying to do up their performance for their financial year end result reporting.
Therefore I do not see anything risk to chinaminzhong business model. Any dip is a buy for me. 114 and 117 are the key support.
short term this one will drop.
TA not looking good.
all key substantial holding reducing stake.
doesnt sound good.
Maybe they are luring Indo to launch a bid for takeover by giving them a small bait first
Salim Group and Franklin Templeton are No. 1 and No.2. Exchange with GIC and Olymplus.
Biggest backhill Wahahaha!!!!!!!!!!1
GIC is selling their shares because they see it as a perfect chance to lock in profits for their massive amount of shares at a single price. Imagine if the price of CMZ hits $1.8 and GIC starts selling into the open market wishing to take profits, the public will be spooked and it will spark of a sell off. In the end, they may not even get an average sell price of 1.12. I think ,to GIC, the recent Indofood interest in CMZ is a perfect chance for them to off load all their shares.
tostubi ( Date: 02-Mar-2013 11:14) Posted:
Sincerely,
i'm a noob, but typing this just as a forum of discussion from my 0.5 cent worth.
Indofood objective is not known. Whether it is to privatise CMZ in the short term, or to just hold a board seat in CMZ and just have a cooperation between the two firms.
in my opinion, the way things are going for the first scenario are bad. They seem to be bargain hunting, ensuring they get things at the cheapest price possible. First, shares at $0.91, 14% below trading price. Second lot of shares at $1.12, 10 cent below trading price. They do not seem to be buying it base on P/E or P/B. they might very well offer a lower than trading price to minority share holders.
Further, for some reason, CMZ directors and GIC does not seem to think the price they have sold their shares as being undervalued. Profiting 55 cents per share as GIC may already have, why not have more by selling it at a higher price? but some how they don't think. they sold GLP at 15x.
If indofood is just out to get a cooperation between the two firms and stop their share purchasing drive, there might still be a chance their objective are not aligned. indofood deals with alot of low value high volume food if i am right, cmz is trying to go for high value low volume food. Having already own so much of their shares, 30%, indofood with board seats, might instead be diverting resources that benefits the indofood corporation, but not us minority shareholders...
do any one here seem to think the same way i do?
thank you for your kind time in reading and sharing... : ) |
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Hahaaaa I love it , just call him "nenek" --granny! She is too boring every where "berak" --pang sai!!!!!
Octavia ( Date: 01-Mar-2013 22:10) Posted:
Bro nek nek,pls see yr inbox.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 01-Mar-2013 21:26) Posted:
| Wahahaha. No ball miss the boa |
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Sincerely,
i'm a noob, but typing this just as a forum of discussion from my 0.5 cent worth.
Indofood objective is not known. Whether it is to privatise CMZ in the short term, or to just hold a board seat in CMZ and just have a cooperation between the two firms.
in my opinion, the way things are going for the first scenario are bad. They seem to be bargain hunting, ensuring they get things at the cheapest price possible. First, shares at $0.91, 14% below trading price. Second lot of shares at $1.12, 10 cent below trading price. They do not seem to be buying it base on P/E or P/B. they might very well offer a lower than trading price to minority share holders.
Further, for some reason, CMZ directors and GIC does not seem to think the price they have sold their shares as being undervalued. Profiting 55 cents per share as GIC may already have, why not have more by selling it at a higher price? but some how they don't think. they sold GLP at 15x.
If indofood is just out to get a cooperation between the two firms and stop their share purchasing drive, there might still be a chance their objective are not aligned. indofood deals with alot of low value high volume food if i am right, cmz is trying to go for high value low volume food. Having already own so much of their shares, 30%, indofood with board seats, might instead be diverting resources that benefits the indofood corporation, but not us minority shareholders...
do any one here seem to think the same way i do?
thank you for your kind time in reading and sharing... : )
Bro nek nek,pls see yr inbox.
ynnek1267 ( Date: 01-Mar-2013 21:26) Posted:
Wahahaha. No ball miss the boat
Octavia ( Date: 01-Mar-2013 21:05) Posted:
| Nowadays got so many food scare including this one mah.My friend emailed me that she bought one bottle of pickle in China with a frog inside. I guess quite similar to this one.Can you see it |
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Wahahaha. No ball miss the boat
Octavia ( Date: 01-Mar-2013 21:05) Posted:
Nowadays got so many food scare including this one mah.My friend emailed me that she bought one bottle of pickle in China with a frog inside. I guess quite similar to this one.Can you see it?
GorgeousOng ( Date: 01-Mar-2013 18:10) Posted:
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look positive to break $1.3 next week...
Nowadays got so many food scare including this one mah.My friend emailed me that she bought one bottle of pickle in China with a frog inside. I guess quite similar to this one.Can you see it?
GorgeousOng ( Date: 01-Mar-2013 18:10) Posted:
I salute you, Sir!
Octavia ( Date: 01-Mar-2013 15:33) Posted:
No know whether CZM got sell such prickle or not?lol |
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