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Syria promises referendum results as EU imposes new sanctions
Published on Monday, 27 February 2012 06:58
(CNN) -
The Syrian regime will announce Monday the results of its much-touted constitutional referendum, but for residents fearing for their lives in Homs -- unsure whether the next government rocket will fall on their house -- the vote is of little concern.
The results of the referendum, which President Bashar al-Assad's regime has said is a move toward reform, will be announced Monday evening, the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency said.
But explosions rocked Homs, an opposition stronghold, once again Monday, and fresh government shelling killed four people in the city's Baba Amr neighborhood, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group. An opposition activist in Homs said the death toll was seven.
Also, 20 people in Homs were wounded when a large shell struck an anti-government gathering, the human rights group said.
Almost half of the 55 people killed across Syria on Sunday were killed in Homs, opposition activists said.
Meanwhile, the Council of the European Union agreed on new sanctions regarding Syria after foreign ministers met in Brussels, Belgium, said spokeswoman Susanne Kiefer.
Seven ministers of the al-Assad regime will have their EU assets frozen and will be denied entry into the EU, Kiefer said. In addition, assets of the Syrian Central Bank in the EU will be frozen. Legitimate trade will be allowed to continue, she said, but must be authorized first.
In addition, cargo flights operated by Syrian carriers will have no access to EU airports, although mixed flights with passengers can still land there, Kiefer said. And trade involving precious metals and diamonds with the Syrian government and public bodies, including the Syrian Central Banks, is prohibited.
" Today's decisions will put further pressure on those who are responsible for the ruthless campaign of repression in Syria," Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief, said in a statement. " The measures target the regime and its ability to conduct the appalling violence against civilians. As long as the repression continues, the EU will keep imposing sanctions."
So far, no attempts at getting al-Assad to stop his regime's gruesome crackdown on dissidents have stopped the onslaught.
Elsewhere on Monday, two people were killed and eight wounded by government shelling on the village of Sarameen in Idlib province, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
And in Damascus, security forces fired on mourners at a funeral, according to the Local Coordination Committees of Syria, a network of opposition activists.
The network estimates about 9,000 people have been killed since the government launched its crackdown last March.
The Syrian government says more than 2,000 members of its security forces have been killed by " terrorists" during that period, including seven " martyrs" who were buried Sunday, Syria's SANA news agency reported.
An " armed terrorist group" shelled a military educational complex in Homs with mortars on Monday, SANA said, killing two and injuring 12.
CNN and other media outlets cannot independently verify opposition or government reports because Syria has severely limited access to the country by foreign journalists. But the vast majority of reports from the ground indicate government forces are massacring citizens in an attempt to wipe out civilians seeking al-Assad's ouster.
Syria announced the referendum amid intense international cries to stop the bloodshed and open up its regime to reforms. But analysts and protesters widely describe the effort as a farce, a superficial attempt to pacify al-Assad's critics.
One article of the draft constitution states " the law shall regulate the provisions and procedures related to the formation of political parties."
But former Syrian lawmaker George Jabbour stressed that the draft would allow for " a multiparty system" instead of leaving the ruling Baath Party as " the leading party of the society and the state," as current constitution does.
Sectarian strife has been an underlying theme in the Syrian conflict. The al-Assad regime is dominated by the Alawite minority, to which al-Assad belongs the majority of Syrians are Sunni, as are many of the protesters.
The opposition Syrian National Council urged Syria's Alawite community to join the revolt and promised their rights would be protected in a post-Assad Syria.
" The Alawites remain an important component of Syria, and will continue to enjoy the same rights as other citizens as we build one nation of Christians, Muslims, and other sects," an SNC statement declared. " The regime will not be successful in pitting us against one another. We are determined to unite our society, and the first step is for us to extend our hand to our Alawite brothers and sisters, to build in Syria a nation governed by citizenship and the rule of law."
The opposition council acknowledged that the revolt has been tinged with sectarian conflicts, but it blamed that on al-Assad's " brutal violence, which has led to an increase in sectarianism."
" However, it is important to emphasize that the first step in halting sectarian strife in Syria is to overthrow the regime," it said.
But U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the SNC is different from the opposition movement that toppled Libya's Moammar Gadhafi with international help last year. The Libyan opposition base in the city of Beghazi gave the international community " an address" to deal with, Clinton said.
'The Artist' wins big at Oscars
Published on Monday, 27 February 2012 06:58
LOS ANGELES (CNN) -
The silent, black-and-white film " The Artist" took top honors at the Academy Awards on Sunday night, garnering five Oscars for best picture, best directing, best costume design, best original music score and best actor.
Jean Dujardin, who spoke just two words in " The Artist," was jubilant as he accepted his best actor Oscar. " I love your country," the French actor said.
Asked backstage how he would make a transition to American " talkies," he said " I'm not an Amerian actor, I continue in French." His translator then said " It's possible if he could make another silent movie in America, he'd like to."
Michel Hazanavicius beat out Martin Scorsese and Woody Allen to win his best directing Academy Award.
" I am the happiest director in the world right now," Hazanavicius said as he accepted.
Meryl Streep's channeling of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in " The Iron Lady" earned the best actress Oscar for her. It was her third Academy Award after 17 nominations.
" When they called my name, I had this feeling I could hear half of America going 'Oh no, why her again? Well, whatever,'" Streep joked in her acceptance.
" The Iron Lady" was also rewarded with a best make up Oscar for the work done to convince the audience that Streep was Thatcher.
Christopher Plummer became the oldest actor to win an Academy Award when he was presented the best supporting actor Oscar for his role as an aging gay man in " Beginners."
" You're only two years older than me, darling," the 82-year-old Plummer said as he looked at his Oscar trophy. " Where have you been all my life?" He also won the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild award in earlier competitions.
Backstage, Plummer called his Oscar " sort of a renewal."
" It has recharged me," Plummer said. " I hope I can do it for another 10 years at least. I'm going to drop dead on the stage or on a set. we don't retire."
Octavia Spencer cried as she accepted the best supporting actress Oscar for her portrayal of a Mississippi maid in the civil-rights-era movie " The Help."
" I'm sorry, I'm freaking out," Spencer said as the allotted time for her acceptance speech ended.
Spencer's win was not a surprise to many Oscar watchers since she also won best supporting actress at the Golden Globes and the SAG awards.
Martin Scorsese's 3-D film " Hugo," which was up for awards in 11 categories, won five Oscars, including for best cinematography, best art direction, best sounding edit, best sound mixing and best visual effects.
Woody Allen won the best original screenplay Oscar for his film about a time-traveling American writer, " Midnight in Paris."
" The Descendants," a family drama starring George Clooney, won for best adapted screenplay.
The Oscar for best foreign language film was awarded to Iran's " A Separation."
" At this time, many Iranians all over the world are watching us and I imagine them to be very happy," director Asghar Farhadi said as he accepted.
The animated feature film Oscar went to " Rango," the story of a lizard stranded in the Mojave Desert.
The best documentary feature Oscar was awarded to " Undefeated," the story of a high school football team that reversed its losing tradition.
The Oscar for best film editing went to Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, the editors of " The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo."
" Man or Muppets," a song written for " The Muppets," won the best original movie song Oscar.
" Saving Face," the story of a British-Pakistani plastic surgeon helps restore the faces of women scarred by acid attacks, won the best documentary short Oscar.
European jitters to weigh on stocks
Published on Monday, 27 February 2012 06:43
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -
U.S. stocks were set to open lower Monday as concerns on Europe's debt crisis returned and gas prices continued to rise.
The Dow Jones industrial average, S& P 500 and Nasdaq futures were about 0.4% lower. Stock futures indicate the possible direction of the markets when they open at 9:30 a.m. ET.
European leaders have taken " substantial" steps to contain the eurozone debt crisis, but need to build a stronger financial firewall to ensure the safety of the global economy, top finance officials said Sunday.
Euro area officials tentatively approved a second €130 billion bailout for Greece last week, and the European Central Bank is set to offer a second round of low-cost, long-term loans for European banks on Wednesday.
But the Group of 20 leading economic nations delayed a decision on the funding resources of the International Monetary Fund until after euro area leaders agree on the ultimate size of their financial firewall.
Meanwhile, investors are keeping watch on the oil market, where crude futures rose above $109 a barrel Friday amid concerns about increased tensions between Iran and Western powers. The rise in oil prices has translated into higher gas prices the national average has climbed for the past 20 days, including a 1-cent-per-gallon climb Monday.
In the week ahead, investors will look for more signs of momentum in the U.S. economy, after the S& P closed Friday at its highest levels since June 2008.
World markets: European stocks fell in midday trading. Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.7%, the DAX in Germany dropped 1.2% and France's CAC 40 lost about 1.3%.
Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite closed up 0.3%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.9% and Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.1%.
Economy: A report on pending home sales in January is due Monday, shortly after the opening bell.
Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expect pending home sales for the month of January to have ticked up by 1%, after declining by 3.5% in the month prior.
Companies: Lowe's shares popped after the home improvement retailer posted better-than-expected earnings and sales for the fourth quarter, and issued a healthy guidance for 2012.
Transocean booked a $6.1 billion loss, mostly on one-time charges including a $1 billion estimated loss on the 2010 spill at its Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico. But shares of the company rose as revenue climbed 11% during the quarter and topped expectations.
After the closing bell, Priceline.com is expected to post quarterly results.
Motorola Solutions said that it bought back $1.2 billion in stock from activist investor Carl Icahn and affiliates. As part of the transaction, Vincent J. Intrieri, a director of Icahn Enterprises G.P., agreed to resign from the Motorola Solutions' board of directors.
Over the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway reported that its book value per share rose 4.6% in 2011 -- hardly a mighty leap but enough for the company's chairman, Warren Buffett, to meet his annual goal of beating the total return of the S& P 500 index, which climbed 2.1%.
Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained strength against the euro and British pound, but fell versus the Japanese yen.
Oil for April delivery slipped $1.31 to $108.46 a barrel.
Gold futures for April delivery fell $10.20 to $1,766.20 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 1.94% from 1.98% late Friday.
FG_AUTHORS: KSAT News
Gold Fluctuates Heavily With The Start Of A New Week
With the start of a new week markets are fluctuating heavily within narrow levels, especially with the lack of critical fundamentals from major economies and after G20 put more pressure on the euro-area region to expand the firepower of the rescue fund in order to provide the IMF with more resources.
Gold fluctuated so far between the highest level recorded at $1778.45 and the lowest level recorded at $1769.93 per ounce, after the opening level of $1772.45 per ounce. The metal trades now around $1770.43 per ounce, cutting $2.02 per ounce or 0.12%.
Markets are fluctuating heavily today as investors are weighing the results of the G20 summit occurred yesterday and as markets are still weighing the possible expansion of the European rescue fund, which is expected now to combine the European financial Stability Facility or the temporal facility with the European Stability Mechanism, the permanent facility.
The merge of both facilities is projected to create 750 billion euros of firepower to fight back the debt crisis. G20 countries including China and Japan pledged to provide the International Monetary Fund with $500-$600 billion of liquidity in case European nations show commitment and expanded the firepower of the rescue fund.
In the final communiqué published by the G20, the euro area countries pledged at the meeting yesterday to reassess the strength of the bailout fund in March during the summit however, eyes will be focused now on Germany which for so long opposed to provide any additional funds to the European rescue fund.
The volatility in the market led the metal's trading to become mixed further, where the fluctuating U.S. dollar added mixed pressures on the metal to remain very volatile.
Eyes will be concentrated on the several bond auctions in Europe today, where Germany, Italy, France and Belgium are to sell bonds with different maturities and now eyes will be tracking any changes in the demand and yields on those bonds, especialy after the second bailout deal for Greece barely bought time for European nations to overcome the debt crisis.
Among other precious metals, silver shed so far $0.07 per ounce or 0.20% to trade around $35.32 per ounce after starting the session at $35.40 per ounce. The metal set so far a high of $35.60 and a low of $35.32 per ounce.
Platinum also shed 0.57% or $9.75 per ounce after the opening of $1713.00 per ounce to trade in the moment around $1703.25 per ounce, after recording the highest at $1717.5 and the lowest at $1702.00 per ounce.
Palladium was a little changed trading now around $710.50 per ounce after the opening of $710.75 per ounce. The metal set a high of $715.50 so far and a low of $710.30 per ounce.
Silver
Silver attempts to confirm the breach of the descending main resistance level shown above, where this resistance started at the top of 49.83. The suggested breach depends on the effect of the bullish Bat harmonic pattern, where the metal is stable now around the target of 127.2% Fibonacci of the CD leg however, the upside move is still available. Therefore, a breach of 35.75 and consolidation above it, could support silver to extend the upside move, targeting 161.8% Fibonacci at 38.30-35
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 32.80 and key resistance now at 38.35.
The short-term trend is to the downside with steady weekly closing below 38.00 targeting 20.05.
Support: 35.05, 34.65, 34.25, 33.75, 33.20
Resistance: 35.75, 36.20, 36.80, 37.25, 37.80
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying silver around 35.05, and take profit in stages at (36.20, 37.25 and 38.35) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 34.00 might be appropriate
Gold
Gold is still stable above the top of (C) point of the double harmonic structure, where according to the harmonic analysis rules, consolidation above this level, which represents 1763.00, could trigger more bullishness in attempts to retest the level of 1794.00 and then 1828.00 in case the metal breached the first level. The ascending support shown above in pink must remain intact in order to negate the negativity seen on momentum indicators.
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1724.00 and key resistance now at 1828.00.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 1475.00 targeting 1945.00.
Support: 1772.00, 1768.00, 1763.00, 1754.00, 1750.00
Resistance: 1780.00, 1788.00, 1794.00 1800.00, 1810.00
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying gold around 1772.00, and take profit in stages at 1794.00 and 1828.00 and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 1750.00 might be appropriate.
Oil is facing a mild downside correction
Crude oil started the week with a downside bias after it achieved huge gains last week backed by fears over global oil supplies and signs of recovery in the Euro zone, where the Finance ministers of G-20 urged Europe to show some commitment and raise its bailout funds which is opposed by Germany.
Crude oil surged sharply last week as it reached a little below $110.00 a barrel, which is a very high price for a barrel which could widely affect the pace of growth in the world, and we can blame Iran and its nuclear program for these high prices for crude.
We can see mild downside correction movements on crude trading which considered to be so normal after achieving these high levels, although, the G-20 finance ministers’ meeting showed some willingness to help Europe through the IMF, but they called for more efforts from Europe to halt its crisis by raising the ceiling of their funds.
The G-20 have also discussed the high price of oil and its effects on global growth, especially with sanctions on Iran which threatening the oil supplies, where other exporter economies lead by Saudi Arabia said that they are ready for covering this gap and increase oil production.
However, volatility will dominate financial markets this week ahead of the EU summit which is eagerly awaited by investors to know the measures that leaders would take to halt the crisis and push up the confidence in the region and support the weak growth.
Today, the financial agenda is empty from major fundamentals which will trigger volatility to markets and raise the uncertainty in it, where eyes may be looking towards bond auctions which are supposed to take place today from major economies in Europe, which will reflect the confidence levels among investors and their faith in EU leaders to solve the crisis.
The uncertainty that appears in financial markets is pushing the dollar upwards and providing it with upside momentum, which is weighing on crude and pushing it to the downside.
Technical Analysis for Energy Markets
Crude oil closed last week above 107.60, which represents 127.2% Fibonacci of the CD leg of the bullish Butterfly harmonic pattern and now 161.8% Fibonacci of the same leg became available. Our next target is at 116.45, but momentum indicators are excessively overbought, which could trigger heavy fluctuations and maybe slight downside corrections, but any trading above 107.60 supports the upside move to remain valid.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 105.25 and the major resistance at 114.80.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 99.60, targeting 116.50.
Support: 108.85, 108.00, 107.60, 107.10, 106.30
Resistance: 109.80, 110.15, 111.00, 111.90, 112.85
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying crude above 107.60 and take profit in stages at (109.80, 111.00 and 112.85) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 105.25 might be appropriate
$110 or Bust?
While oil came just shy of a key target level of $110 on surging open interest as traders priced in an Iranian confrontation, it seems that a weekend New York Times story is raising doubts about the rush to war. The New York Times said, “Even as the United Nation's nuclear watchdog said in a new report Friday that Iran had accelerated its uranium enrichment program, American intelligence analysts continue to believe that there is no hard evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb.” This article may slow the march to war in the minds of bullish traders and have them pull back on their bullish bets.
The surge in open interest seemed to suggest that traders were convinced that we would see a disruption in supply in late April or early May. These reports and the memories of flawed intelligence leading up to the Iraq war, may give President Obama some pause before it gets involved in any pre-emptive action in Iran. In other words, perhaps they won’t bomb the Iranian nuclear facilities. Of course with reports that Iran still has a goal of wiping Israel off of the face of the earth, it may not matter what American Intelligence Analysts think but what Israeli analysts think.
Oil is once again focusing on fears that the global economy may be slowing and concerns surround the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis. G-20 Finance Ministers decided not to give the EU cash to bail out. The G-20 said that Europe needed a viable financial firewall before any consideration can be made to boost resources for the IMF.
At the same time the International Monetary Fund warned that the world economy is, “not out of the danger zone because of fragile financial systems, debt and rising world oil prices. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde gave the stark warning mentioning Iranian tensions as another reason to worry about the way forward.
IMF warned on global growth as well raising fears that the rising oil prices could help sink already fragile economies.
Overnight Sentiment Negative Following Failure To Boost IMF Rescue Fund
Overnight sentiment is significantly negative, with stocks, bond yields, risk currencies lower after G-20 over the weekend refused to increase IMF funding. The result is an end to the buoyant market sentiment of recent days which has seen the Dax down 1.2%, bund, UST yields lower, and US futures lower. As many had expected, the G-20 has rebuffed EU leaders' request for more assistance, which in turn has placed the onus on Germany to find a way to resolve its internal conflict vis-a-vis a Greek bailout, ironically as many believe that it is Germany who more than anyone wants Greece out. This happens as the Bundestag votes today on second aid package today Merkel’s government must decide whether to back plans at this week’s summit to combine EFSF and ESM. In other news, tomorrow the ECB will call for bids for the second 3 Year LTRO tomorrow, with results announced on February 29. And with the ECB's deposit facility at €477 billion, it is rather clear that the banks will park the bulk of new proceeds with the ECB once again, where it will continue to be a negative carry trade, earning 0.25% at a cost of 1.00%. And somehow this is favorable for the European sovereign bond market, which continues to ignore the various layers of subordination it is now working under. We expect the market revulsion to this flaw to be violent when it comes, and will result in a rapid and sudden divergence between the various subordinated tranches of sovereign bonds.
Here are some of the comments from the G20 participants following the summit, who tried to wrap the failure of the G20 meeting in a pretty package:
U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY TIMOTHY GEITHNER
ON EURO ZONE CRISIS
" The most important thing we've seen is the progress in Europe towards laying out a more credible foundation for stability."
" I'm very encouraged by the impact so far of the combined actions of new governments in Italy and Spain doing a very good job of laying out reforms to meet their very formidable economic challenges."
ON IMF RESOURCES
" I think you're seeing a very welcome indication from the major shareholders of the IMF that they'll do what is necessary to make sure the IMF continues to have the resources it needs to deal with the pressures emanating from Europe,"
" We will not go to Congress to seek the authority necessary for a contribution from the United States. We don't think that's necessary or desirable."
ON EUROPEAN FIREWALL
" To be credible and to serve its intended purpose, a firewall has to be large relative to the plausible claims on those resources."
CANADIAN FINANCE MINISTER JIM FLAHERTY, AFTER THE G20
MEETING:
" I'm a little bit more confident, modestly more confident, but there are still a lot of obstacles."
GERMAN CENTRAL BANK PRESIDENT JENS WEIDMANN ON THE G20
MEETING AND RESULTS:
" We have made some progress in the different issues."
" The conference was a typical working meeting to prepare the G20 summit in Los Cabos."
BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR ALEXANDRE TOMBINI
" The central bank has signalled recently of the high probability that the monetary policy rate in Brazil will be in single digits in the future. That strategy has not changed until today."
" (The price of) oil is a worry for all central banks at this moment."
GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER WOLFGANG SCHAEUBLE
" There is no diverging view that we're on the right path with our stability measures."
" I assume we'll get the necessary approval for it (the Greek rescue package) on Monday in the Bundestag. We know that we still need the decision of the IMF board for this on the IMF's contribution for a second programme for Greece. We appreciate the IMF's contribution and I assume that we will also get the necessary support for it within the IMF."
" As the heads of government have agreed, we will make our decision in Europe in the course of the month of March. But the month of March goes from March 1 to March 31. It will be reviewed again, also in the light of the developments that have since occurred, whether the stated dimension of the mechanism is enough or not. And it's going to be in time for the IMF to be able to make a corresponding decision at the spring meeting in Washington on the firewall - not on the participation on the second Greece package."
" For all of the decisions the German government has made in this context, it's got the necessary approval in the German Bundestag. And so you can definitely assume that if the German government makes these decisions, it will get the necessary approval for them in the German Bundestag."
BRITISH FINANCE MINISTER GEORGE OSBORNE
" We are prepared to consider IMF resources but only once we see the colour of the euro zone money and we have not seen the colour of the euro zone money," Osborne told Sky TV. " I think that quid pro quo will be clearly established here in Mexico City."
GERMAN CENTRAL BANK PRESIDENT JENS WEIDMANN
" The G20 meeting takes place in an economic environment in which, after a weak phase for the global economy, the indicators are improving again. In view of this, there is a chance that the relatively pessimistic IMF forecasts could be surpassed. This economic situation is true of the global economy as a whole but there are quite stark differences between individual countries, including within the euro zone."
And below are some of the key excerpts from the G-20 communique (source)
ON THE EURO ZONE FIREWALL:
" G20 members have been actively engaged in taking the steps needed to safeguard the global financial system and to avoid adverse scenarios. At Cannes, our leaders asked us to review the adequacy of IMF resources. This review is particularly important against the backdrop of continued downside risks. Euro area countries will reassess the strength of their support facilities in March. This will provide an essential input in our ongoing considerations to mobilize resources to the IMF." ON MORE FUNDS FOR THE IMF:
" We are reviewing options, as requested by leaders, to ensure resources for the IMF could be mobilized in a timely manner. We reaffirmed our commitment that the IMF should remain a quota-based institution and agreed that a feasible way to increase IMF resources in the short-run is through bilateral borrowing and note purchase agreements with a broad range of IMF members. These resources will be available for the whole membership of the IMF, and not earmarked for any particular region. Adequate risk mitigation features and conditionality would apply, as approved by the IMF Board. Progress on this strategy will be reviewed at the next ministerial meeting in April. Other options mentioned by leaders in Cannes such as SDRs are under review."
ON WORLD ECONOMY
" Substantial policy actions have taken place since our last meeting, and recent economic developments point to the continuation of a modest global recovery and an easing in global financial market stress. We welcome the important progress made by Europe in recent months to strengthen their fiscal positions, adopt measures to reduce financial stress, build stronger institutions, implement growth enhancing structural reforms and to put Greece on a sustainable path."
" We also welcome the market improvement associated with the actions undertaken by the ECB. Nevertheless, growth expectations for 2012 are moderate and downside risks continue to be high. The international economic environment has continued to be characterized by an uneven performance, with weak growth in advanced economies and a stronger, albeit slowing, expansion in emerging markets."
" Structural problems, insufficient global rebalancing, a persistent development gap and high levels of public and private indebtedness and uncertainty continue weighing on medium-term global growth prospects. While volatility in international financial markets has declined, it generally remains high and we are committed to further reduce downside risks. We are alert to the risks of higher oil prices and welcome the commitment by producing countries to continue to ensure adequate supply. With unemployment still too high in many countries, we are firmly committed to supporting growth and job creation."
ON IMF REFORM
" We will continue working towards the reform of the quota and governance of the IMF, in line with the commitments made in Seoul and Cannes. To this end, the G-20 members reaffirmed their commitment to implement in full the 2010 Governance and Quota Reform by the agreed date of the 2012 IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting, and to a comprehensive review of the quota formula to better reflect economic weights by January 2013 and the completion of the next general review of quotas by January 2014. Also, the G-20 will contribute to the ongoing process to strenghten the surveillance framework of the IMF, providing its input into considering proposals for a new surveillance decision that includes more effective integration of bilateral and multilateral surveillance."
SG Market: Spores shares may extend recent falls, despite a positive lead from Wall Street, as traders are likely to focus on a slew of earnings results just released. There are growing concerns that Sore's industrial prodn data, due around midday, will show a contraction for Jan and rising oil prices and China's downgrade of its growth expectations may put a damper on overall market sentiment.
If the STI breaches the 20—day moving average at 2960, look to 2950 as the near term support followed by firmer ground at around 2910 level. 3000 is likely to remain a bright-line resistance. Among stocks set to be in focus after earnings results, UOB reported 4Q11 net profit below expectations (due to higher provisions but core internals are improving), while SembMarine 4Q11 results came in above expectations. ST Engrg 4Q results generally in line to above estimates. Cosco 4Q was on the low end of estimates, while Sino Grandness completely missed estimates.
Out of control? Volatility ETN triggers risk concerns
* Share volume in leveraged VIX product soars
* Credit Suisse halted issuance of TVIX shares
* SEC has been looking at stability of ETFs, ETNs
By Angela Moon and Jessica Toonkel
NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - A surge in trading in a product used to make outsized bets on rising volatility has become the latest example of how exchange-traded securities are gaining a bigger grip on the U.S. stock market, in a growing headache for regulators.
Volume in a leveraged exchange-traded note that tracks futures contracts in the market's favored anxiety index, the VIX, soared in the last two weeks, as investors bet the recent calm in markets would not last.
It forced Credit Suisse, which offers the VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term exchange-traded note, to stop issuing shares out of concerns that demand for the security would start to have an undue influence on the price of VIX futures, rather than tracking that market.
Investors have an increasing hunger for niche exchange-traded products that at times come to dominate trading in parts of the market.
It further highlights the dangers of ever-more complex leveraged exchange-traded instruments, which are currently the subject of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission scrutiny, and suggests potential risks may not yet be fully understood.
Daily volume in TVIX over the past 10 trading sessions rose to 27.1 million shares on the expectation of rising volatility. Prior to January, the TVIX had never traded more than 10 million shares in one session.
" This is a dream product for speculative traders... especially if you are a short-term trader," said Dave Nadig, director of research at Index Universe LLC in San Francisco.
The action has taken place as the S& P 500 index has rallied to a 10-month high and the CBOE Volatility index VIX, the market's favored index of anxiety, has dropped 22 percent this year. The VIX tends to decline when stocks rise and jump when markets plunge.
Among the events that could derail the current U.S. stock market rally would be a further meltdown in the euro zone, an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, or a sudden worsening in the Chinese economy.
Credit Suisse said Tuesday it will stop issuing new notes for the ETN, whose daily return is meant to be double the S& P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures index. The product is not designed for long-term investment.
The concern among investors is that this product and other volatility products could come to dominate a relatively small market such as the VIX futures market. That market is growing, but activity there pales in comparison to the S& P 500 stock futures or other markets, such as U.S. Treasury bond futures.
This problem has arisen in the past in other markets. In 2009, the U.S. Natural Gas Fund stopped issuing new shares out of concern that the ETF would influence the price of natural gas. Investors in gold and other metals have at times claimed that exchange-traded funds that buy those commodities are distorting the price of the underlying asset.
Credit Suisse cited " internal limits on the size of the ETN" as the reason for the halt. The firm would not say how long the suspension would continue. With supply limited and demand soaring, premiums on the product were rising.
" The potential issue is whether this is a symptom of the volatility-based exchange-traded products starting to outgrow the size of the VIX futures market," said Bill Luby, a private investor in San Francisco who writes the VIX and More blog.
Credit Suisse would not comment on whether the firm was concerned about its own exposure. With volume and demand soaring, the firm was in danger of taking up a big part of the VIX futures market - which only traded 811,000 contracts in January - just to meet the demands for the ETN. Some experts said that may have created anxiety about risks at the bank.
" The ETN has gotten far larger than expected, and since this is a day-trading product and not a buy-and-hold type, there is too much risk on (Credit Suisse's) hands. It has grown too much for the firm," said Nadig of Index Universe.
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Investors bet falling volatility won't last: http://link.reuters.com/tym76s
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Signs that this product could be influencing VIX futures can be seen in trading on February 10, 13, and 14. On those days, the stock market was relatively quiet, with the S& P 500 moving by no more than 0.7 percent in either direction.
But volume in VIX futures spiked to more than 100,000 contracts each day, according to CBOE data, the most since the August 2011 week when the United States had its credit rating downgraded from triple-A.
" These products are supposed to give exposure to VIX futures and with their rapid growth we think these products actually have an effect on the pricing of VIX futures. It's a bit of the tail wagging the dog scenario," said Phil Rapoport, a strategist at Macro Risk Advisors, an advisory and trading firm specializing in equity derivatives.
Trading volume in the TVIX peaked at 42.3 million shares on Feb. 15 but has dipped a bit in the last few days, particularly after Credit Suisse suspended new share issuance.
Credit Suisse increased the share count several times in 2012. According to VelocityShares, which created the product, there are now about 40 million shares outstanding, making the ETN worth about $650 million.
Action in other volatility-linked products is rising too. ProShares Ultra Short-Term Futures VIX exchange-traded fund, another leveraged product, traded more than 5 million shares on Thursday, compared with a 50-day average of 700,000 shares.
Unlike exchange-traded funds, exchange-traded notes are not portfolios, but rather are debt obligations that are tied to the performance of a market index.
The SEC has been conducting a broad review of exchange-traded products, looking at transparency and liquidity levels to whether ETFs and ETNs may at times fuel market volatility.
Reuters reported on Wednesday that the inquiry has been widened to take a closer look at a possible connection between high-frequency traders and hedge funds jumping in and out of the instruments and instances where they fail to settle on time, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Reporting By Angela Moon, Jessica Toonkel in New York and Doris Frankel in Chicago Editing by David Gaffen, Martin Howell)
Bank of America stops selling some loans to Fannie
* BofA cites Fannie Mae repurchase claims
* Bank still selling loans to Freddie Mac
* BofA freezing pension plan June 30 (Adds Fannie Mae comment more details about pension plan, capital)
By Rick Rothacker
Feb 23 (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp has stopped selling some mortgages to Fannie Mae because of a dispute arising from claims related to soured home loans, the bank said in a filing on Thursday.
Starting in February, the second-largest U.S. bank said it stopped delivering home-purchase loans and certain refinanced mortgages to be packaged into Fannie Mae loan securitizations, the bank said.
Bank of America and other large banks have absorbed billions in losses related to requests by Fannie Mae and other investors to buy back defective loans sold to them by banks during the housing boom.
The bank didn't renew a contract with the government-controlled mortgage entity because of " ongoing differences" with Fannie Mae, including repurchase claims, according to the bank's annual 10-K filing. (The filing can be found at http://link.reuters.com/wen76s)
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank is still selling loans to the other major government-controlled mortgage entity, Freddie Mac, bank spokesman Jerry Dubrowski said. It also can hold mortgage loans on its own balance sheet, he said.
The bank remains in talks with Fannie Mae and continues to sell Fannie Mae loans refinanced through the government's Making Home Affordable program, according to the filing.
Bank of America has been dramatically scaling back its mortgage operations after suffering huge losses from its 2008 purchase of subprime lender Countrywide Financial. Last year, it stopped buying mortgages originated by smaller banks, which dropped it to fourth from second in U.S. mortgage origination rankings.
" Our company has streamlined," Dubrowski said. " We are focused on providing credit for our customers, and this decision is consistent with that. We have ended the past practices of Countrywide, which had a significant relationship with Fannie Mae."
Fannie Mae spokesman Andrew Wilson declined to comment.
PENSION PLAN TO BE FROZEN
In Thursday's filing, Bank of America also said it will freeze the benefits employees have earned in its company pension plan as of June 30.
Employees will still be offered a 401(k) retirement plan in which they can set aside a portion of their compensation in an investment account. The bank matches up to 5 percent of employee contributions, and eligible employees will also receive an annual 401(k)contribution of between 2 percent to 3 percent of their salary, bank spokesman Scott Silvestri said.
The move is in line with changes at other large companies, Silvestri said.
Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan has been slashing costs and selling non-core businesses as he looks to boost profits and build capital to absorb mortgage-related losses. The bank's stock fell 58 percent last year, but the shares have revived this year, climbing 44 percent, as capital concerns have eased.
In the filing, the bank said it will continue to build capital through earnings, shed riskier assets and launch other initiatives. The bank issued 122 million shares of immediately tradable stock to certain employees in February in lieu of a portion of their cash bonuses. The bank may also continue to issue common stock in exchange for preferred stock and trust preferred securities, according to the filing. (Reporting By Rick Rothacker Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
Obama hits back at Republican criticism of high fuel prices
* Obama blames high oil prices on Iran tensions
* Says speculators also driving prices higher
* Says Republicans making " phony" promises (Adds additional Obama comments, background)
By Laura MacInnis
MIAMI, Feb 23 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama hit back on Thursday at election-year Republican criticism of his energy policies, offering a staunch defense of his attempts to wean Americans off foreign oil and saying there is no " silver bullet" for high gasoline prices.
Obama sought to deflect growing Republican attacks over rising prices at the pump, blaming recent increases on a mix of factors beyond his control, including tensions with Iran, hot demand from China, India and other emerging economies, and Wall Street speculators taking advantage of the uncertainty.
U.S. gasoline prices have jumped nearly 9 cents in the past week to an average of $3.61 a gallon, and are expected to rise further toward the crucial $4 mark through the summer driving season and the approach of the Nov. 6 election..
In a visit to the University of Miami less than nine months before the presidential election in which he will seek a second term, Obama offered a modest series of proposals aimed at diversifying fuel supplies and increasing energy efficiency.
" It's the easiest thing in the world (to) make phony election-year promises about lower gas prices," Obama said, offering his most comprehensive rebuttal yet of the intensifying Republican criticism.
" What's harder is to make a serious, sustained commitment to tackle a problem that may not be solved in one year or one term or even one decade," he said.
Obama's speech was part of a broader White House strategy to try to regain the upper hand in the debate and deflect blame, but the president's arguments may fall on deaf ears if gas prices continue to rise and cause financial pain for voters.
Republicans have made rising gas prices one of their main attack lines against Obama, sensing an electoral vulnerability for the president. His re-election prospects depend in part on his ability to keep a fragile economic recovery afloat and to continue reducing high unemployment.
Republicans seeking to dislodge Obama from the White House are seeking to pin the higher prices on the president's tax and environmental policies they say have hindered domestic production and kept the United States at the mercy of imports.
They cite his decision to block the Keystone pipeline that would transport Canadian oil to refineries in Texas as proof he is beholden to environmentalists .
The Obama administration has delayed a final decision on Keystone until after the election, saying the proposed route could pose a danger to water supply in the nation's breadbasket.
Obama needs to win the war of words to gain an upper hand over Republicans in Western battleground states including Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, where people drive a lot and feel the sting of rising prices acutely.
Gasoline prices have climbed alongside crude futures, the major component in determining the price of gasoline, due to concerns about a potential disruption of supplies from Iran, which is locked in a standoff with the West over Tehran's disputed nuclear program.
U.S. crude prices have jumped 9 percent this year, nearing $108 a barrel on Thursday, the highest level since May, 2011.
DRILL, DRILL, DRILL
As gasoline prices become an increasingly important election issue, Republicans are scrambling to prove they can offer relief. On Wednesday, Republican candidate Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, promised gasoline prices of $2.50 a gallon if he won the White House.
" You can bet that since it's an election year, they're already dusting off their three-point plans for $2 gas," Obama said. " I'll save you the suspense: Step one is drill, step two is drill and step three is keep drilling."
While Obama said he had asked officials to look for opportunities to help consumers in the short term - in areas such as permitting and delivery bottlenecks - he repeated there would be no " silver bullet" for America's energy crunch, and said real change would come only in the long run.
The trio of proposals announced in Miami included a $30 million competition in natural gas technologies and a $14 million program to development algae-based fuel.
Obama highlighted steps already taken to expand domestic production and improve fuel efficiency.
He also repeated calls to roll back tax incentives for the oil industry and urged renewal of a clean energy tax credit in Congress, where lawmakers are deeply divided and little legislative action is expected this year.
His remarks were met with disdain from top Republicans.
" Facing an election, the President would like everyone to forget that gas prices have doubled over the past three years while he consistently blocked and slowed the production of American-made energy," said Brendan Buck, a spokesman for John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives.
While Republicans blame high oil prices on actions such as Obama's Keystone pipeline decision, an oil boom led by North Dakota is expected to push U.S. crude output this year to its highest level since 1999.
Lawmakers from Obama's own party are asking him to take steps to ease the price pressure in the short term. Democratic lawmakers on Wednesday urged the White House to signal it is ready to tap the country's strategic petroleum reserve, which contains about 696 million barrels of oil.
Obama made no mention of taking that step in his speech. (Additional reporting by Matt Spetalnick, Jeff Mason, Roberta Rampton, Timothy Gardner, Ayesha Rascoe and Samson Reiny in Washington and Matthew Robinson in New York, writing by Laura MacInnis and Missy Ryan Editing by Ross Colvin and Todd Eastham)
Shares inch up but growth worry caps
* MSCI Asia ex-Japan up 0.2 pct, Nikkei opens nearly flat
* Dollar off 7-month high vs yen
By Chikako Mogi
TOKYO, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Friday as solid U.S. data improved sentiment, but the upside may be capped by concerns that rising oil prices could deal a further blow to the fragile euro zone economy and moves to take profits after recent gains.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.2 percent while Japan's Nikkei average opened nearly flat.
U.S. stocks neared peaks not seen since before the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers on Thursday after data underscored a recovery in the battered labour and housing markets.
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits last week held at the lowest level since the early days of the 2007-2009 recession, while U.S. December home prices rose 0.7 percent.
The German Ifo think-tank survey of business sentiment rose to its strongest level in seven months, lifting the euro to its highest in 2-1/2 months against the U.S. dollar at $1.3379 . The euro held near the peak at $1.3370 on Friday.
But the European Commission forecast that economic output in the euro zone will contract 0.3 percent this year, while the wider European Union will stagnate.
A surge in oil prices on heightening tension between Iran and the West pushed Brent oil priced in euros to a record high on Thursday, adding to worries that rising fuel costs would damage growth and further undermine euro zone debt restructuring efforts.
" The market will probably give Europe some benefit of doubt in the early months of the year as most were expecting weak data," Deutsche Bank said in a note dated Feb. 23.
" However, unless the data improves by the second half of the year, any signs of weakness will be seen as more structural and more worrisome from a debt sustainability point of view," it said.
Brent futures valued in euros hit a record 93.60 euros per barrel on Thursday, exceeding the previous peak of 93.46 euros hit on July 3, 2008,
Dollar-denominated Brent crude rose for a fourth day and hit a nine-month high, settling at $123.62 a barrel on Thursday, still well short of 2008's record $147 a barrel. U.S. crude extended gains on Friday, rising 0.7 percent to $108.57.
Iran remained defiant after U.N. nuclear inspectors failed to check activities at a site where the U.N. International Energy Agency said there is a facility to test explosives, sparking fears Iran's confrontation with the West would escalate and affect oil flow from the Middle East.
Higher oil prices raise inflation expectations in the United States, lowering real interest rates and undermining the dollar, said Junya Tanase, chief currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo.
" There is a fairly strong correlation between oil price and U.S. inflation expectations. The dollar has been rather resilient during the recent 'risk-on' mode, lifting dollar/yen above our forecast, but this strength may see a correction if oil prices and inflation expectations stay elevated," he said.
Tanase noted the risk of the euro falling against the yen in the short-term if more negative news on Greece emerged.
The dollar was off a seven-month high against the yen hit earlier in the week of 80.40 yen. The euro was steady against the yen at 106.90 yen.
Asian credit markets were subdued, with the spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index little changed from Thursday. (Editing by Richard Pullin)
Australia shares seen capped by uncertain global outlook
(Updates to open)
SYDNEY, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Australian shares were little changed early on Friday as positive signs of a U.S recovery fuelling a global economic revival were offset by concerns about the risks from rising oil prices.
Shares in utility AGL Energy fell 3 percent after it said it would buy Victoria state's largest power station and a coal mine for A$448 million and raise A$1.5 billion through hybrids and a rights issue..
The benchmark S& P/ASX 200 index nudged up 0.1 percent or 3.7 points to 4,289.9. It broke a four-day winning streak on Thursday, slipping 0.2 percent.
New Zealand's benchmark NZX 50 index gave up just 1.1 points up at 3,323.3.
Air New Zealand Ltd fell 3.4 percent to NZ$0.86 after it reported a 71 percent fall in first-half profit on higher fuel costs and weak long haul markets. The airline said it would axe about 440 jobs to cut costs but warned it would be a challenge to match last year's 12 month result.
For a digest of the day's business stories in Australian newspapers, double click on
(Reporting by Narayanan Somasundaram Editing by Richard Pullin)
Nikkei set to rise, may suffer profit-taking later
TOKYO, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to open higher on Friday, boosted by gains on Wall Street and a weaker yen against the euro, though strategists expected investors to lock in some profits from a recent sharp rise later in the session.
" The yen weakened against the euro further. I expect the Nikkei to rise in the morning to around 9,650," said Yutaka Miura, a senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities.
" But there has been a lot of overheating in the latest rally, so there will likely be some profit-taking later on."
The Nikkei was likely to trade between 9,550 and 9,650, strategists said, while Nikkei futures in Chicago < 0#NIY:> closed at 9,600 on Thursday, up 30 points or 0.3 percent from the Osaka close of 9,570.
The Nikkei closed 0.4 percent higher at 9,595.57 on Thursday after breaking resistance to end above 9,500 in the previous session for the first time since early August. The broader Topix index advanced 0.5 percent to 829.35.
The benchmark Nikkei is up 9 percent this month and 13.5 percent this year, boosted by a run of strong economic data out of the United States, as well as the European Central Bank's liquidity injection of nearly half a trillion euros and further easing steps by the Bank of Japan.
Nomura said in a note that the Nikkei's 25-day moving average was likely to break above its 200-day average in the near term to form a " golden cross" on charts, a bullish signals for stocks. A " golden cross" was already formed with the 13-week and 26-week moving averages.
But the index was deep in " overbought" territory, with the 14-day relative strength index at 80. Seventy or above is considered overbought.
" We see the next upside target as the 8 July 2011 rally high of 10,207, close also to the 10,169 level representing a rise of twice the magnitude of the decline from the October 2011 high to the November low, but we think a cooling off period of a week or two will be needed before an attempt is made at the 10,000 level," it said.
> Wall Street rises, nearing 4-year highs > Euro jumps vs dollar and yen, but may top soon > Strong seven-year auction lifts Treasury prices > Gold rises for 4th day on easing worries, Greece > Brent crude hits record high in euros
STOCKS TO WATCH
-- ELPIDA MEMORY INC
Chipmaker Elpida Memory said on Thursday it plans to double to 800 million the number of common shares it can issue, as it grapples with debt repayment deadlines and pressure to deliver a turnaround plan to its creditors.
-- TOSHIBA CORP, SONY CORP
Toshiba and Sony will receive loans from a Japanese government-backed fund to help finance recent overseas acquisitions and cushion the blow of a soaring yen, the fund and the companies said on Thursday.
-- TOKYO ELECTRIC POWER CO
Australia's AGL Energy said it would acquire Victoria's largest power station, Loy Yang A, and adjacent coal mine for A$448 million ($480 million) from Tokyo Electric Power Co and investment funds.
-- NISSAN MOTOR CO
Nissan Motor said on Wednesday it would recall about 250,000 Juke, Infiniti M, March and other models globally to fix a mechanical glitch in the fuel rail of direct injection engines that could lead to a fuel leak in extreme cases.
-- HONDA MOTOR CO
Honda Motor is recalling more than 9,000 midsize SUVs in the United States and Canada for problems that can lead to a fuel leak.
--J. FRONT RETAILING CO LTD, PARCO CO LTD
Japanese department store chain J. Front Retailing plans to buy mall operator Parco for 30 billion yen ($374 million) to expand in an increasingly harsh business environment, the Nikkei business daily reported. ($1 = 80.1950 Japanese yen) (Reporting by Dominic Lau and Hideyuki Sano Editing by Michael Watson)
AIA reports new business grew 40 pct in 2011
(Adds details, analyst comment)
Feb 24 (Reuters) - AIA Group Ltd, Asia's No.3 insurer, reported a 40 percent rise in value of new business (VONB) in the year ended Nov. 30, 2011, helped by strong growth in Singapore, China and Malaysia.
VONB for the period rose to $932 million while VONB margin climbed 4.6 percentage points to 37.2 percent, the company said in a filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. VONB is a measure of the present value of future business.
" The value of new business came in way above consensus. We were looking for $883 million and we were at the high end of Street estimates," said Stanley Tsai, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in Hong Kong.
" Volumes were in line or slightly below expectations but margins were very high. That was driven mainly by Hong Kong and Thailand," Tsai said.
The margin on new business growth in Hong Kong in 2011 was 56.1 percent. In Thailand, it was 48.8 percent.
AIA said that its future performance would depend on the global economy, noting continuing uncertainties could " have a negative impact upon Asian economic growth rates and consequently upon AIA's business."
But it added that in the absence of major external shocks an " immense opportunity exists for AIA given present levels of wealth, the significant protection gap across the region and likely future economic growth."
POLL-Singapore Jan industrial output seen contracting
(repeats from Tuesday with one additional forecast)
* WHAT: Singapore's industrial output for January
* WHEN: Friday, Feb 24, 0500 GMT (local time: 1:00 pm)
* REUTERS FORECAST: +3.2 pct m/m s/adj, -1.0 pct y/y SINGAPORE MANUFACTURING OUTPUT (percentage change) MONTH JANUARY JANUARY DECEMBER NO OF
MEDIAN RANGE ACTUAL FORECASTERS M/M S/ADJ 3.2 -1.0/+7.4 7.8 6 Y/Y -1.0 -5.6/+2.5 12.6 13
FACTORS TO WATCH
- Singapore's industrial production likely fell from a year ago on account of the Chinese New Year holidays falling in January this year instead of February. From a month ago, factory output likely rose because of increased production by rig builders and pharmaceutical firms.
- Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose 0.9 percent in January from the previous month due to strong shipments of pharmaceuticals, surprising forecasters who had expected a contraction.
- The city-state's manufacturing sector contracted for a seventh straight month in January as orders continued to shrink, according to the Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI). Singapore's PMI tends to understate contributions from the pharmaceutical sector, however.
- Singapore's trade-driven economy contracted a seasonally adjusted and annualised 2.5 percent in the final quarter of 2011, and the government is projecting economic growth of just 1-3 percent this year, down from last year's 4.9 percent.
CONTRIBUTORS M/M Y/Y Barclays 2.5 Bank of America/Merrill Lynch -1.9 Capital Economics -1.0 CIMB 7.4 -1.7 Citigroup 3.3 0.6 Credit Suisse -5.6 DBS -0.7 ING Financial Markets 3.1 1.0 Maybank -3.0 Nomura 1.1 -0.5 Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp 3.2 1.9 OSK-DMG -1.4 United Overseas Bank -1.0 -2.3
To track Singapore economic data, click on. (Reporting by Kevin Lim Editing by Ramya Venugopal)
Citi Presents 20 Great Stocks That The Rest Of Wall Street Hates
Sometimes going against the prevailing market consensus can pay off in a big way. So, many investors look for contrarian calls.
Citi's Javier Guardo is out with his list of best contrarian calls based on the firms analysts' ratings and earnings forecast.
These are stocks that
Citi analysts view much more positively than the rest of Wall Street.
Netflix's results are stabilizing after the Qwikster fiasco
Getty Images/Gareth Cattermole
Ticker: NFLX
Sector: Entertainment services
Why: Q4 results showed stabilization after the negative impact of the price hike and Qwikster fiasco. Concerns about Netflix's profitability are addressed through its guidance on expanding streaming contribution margin, and relatively low international losses.
Analyst: Mark Mahaney
Source: Citi
Choice Hotels valuation could go higher as projects in the pipeline get bigger
Ticker: CHH
Sector: Lodging
Why: The stock currently has reasonable valuation, which could increase as the projects in the pipeline grow. Meanwhile, EPS is in line with historical average at times of cyclically low earnings.
Analyst: Michael Bilerman
Source: Citi
Advanced Energy is in a profitable segment of the solar industry and is insulated from Germany's FIT cuts
Ticker: AEIS
Sector: Semi equipment
Why: Advanced Energy is one of the best franchises in a segment of the solar market that is growing fast and which is sustainably profitable. It is insulated from additional cuts to photovoltaic feed-in tariffs (FIT) in Germany.
" Furthermore, we have more confidence in solar margin leverage as the company shift manufacturing to lower cost China and the Street has historically under modeled leverage."
Analyst: Timothy Arcuri
Source: Citi
Analysts underestimate Brown Froman's growth opportunity abroad
Ticker: BFb
Sector: Beverages
Why: The consensus among analysts underestimates the sales that will come from the launch of Jack Daniel's Tennesse Honey in the U.S., the international growth opportunity for the company, and the growing popularity of bourbon around the world.
Analyst: Vivien Azer
Source: Citi
Health Net is expected to gain from Dual Eligible Opportunity
Ticker: HNT
Sector: Managed care
Why: Health Net is expected to gain from Dual Eligible Opportunity, especially as California considers moving the majority of its dual eligible population to managed care plans in coming years. It has a strong cash position which has been strengthened with the divestiture of its Medicare drug business to CVS for $140 million in net proceeds.
Analyst: Carl McDonald
Source: Citi
Expect Imperial Oil should generate higher cash flow and boost dividends
Ticker: IMO
Sector: Oil Companies - International
Why: Wall Street analysts have overestimated the near term concerns about crude oil prices and funding for the company's Kearl project. Imperial Oil is expected to generate Canadian $2.2 billion of free cash flow -- cash from company's operations minus capital expenses -- by 2015, and could increase return to shareholders.
Analyst: Faisel Khan
Source: Citi
Amsurg Corp will gain from changes to Medicare in 2012
Ticker: AMSG
Sector: Health care facilities
Why: Amsurg Corp is expected to benefit from new acquisitions and a positive Medicare update this year. It's organic business is also believed to have stabilized.
Analyst: Gary Taylor
Source: Citi
Bemis Co Inc will gain from lower raw material costs and EPS is expected to grow
Ticker: BMS
Sector: Containers and packaging
Why: Bemis is expected to benefit from a drop in prices of raw materials. It is expected to reverse volume declines seen in the second half of 2011. EPS growth is expected to be boosted by share repurchases and deleveraging driven by rising free cash flow.
Analyst: Timothy Thein
Source: Citi
Gap can see its margin improve this year after weak product and sourcing miscues in 2011
Ticker: GPS
Sector: Retailing - softlines
Why: Gap has room to improve its profit margin this year, after sourcing miscues and weak product at the Gap division last year. Gap could see share buybacks of up to $1 billion this year which can support above-consensus EPS.
Analyst: Jeff Black
Source: Citi
Lockheed Martin is expected to continue to benefit from defense demand
Ticker: LMT
Sector: Aerospace & Defense
Why: Unstable regions continue to demand fighter jets, transport and missile defense. Within the industry Lockheed already leads in terms of divided and moving forward its shareholder friendly activities are expected to persist.
Analyst: Jason Gursky
Source: Citi
Sunoco benefits from exposure to pipeline and midstream companies and is expected to increase shareholder value
Ticker: SUN
Sector: Refiners
Why: Khan and other Citi analysts are bullish on Sunoco because of their positive attitude to pipeline and midstream companies -- these are companies that process, store, market and transport commodities like crude oil, natural gas. -- through Sunoco Logistics Partners. Sunoco is also expected to increase shareholder value through share repurchases. Asset sales, inventory liquidation, and Toledo payments are expected to improve its cash flow.
Analyst: Faisel Khan
Source: Citi
Northrop Grumman Corp is expected to see EPS growth and dividends increase
Ticker: NOC
Sector: Aerospace & Defense
Why: The company's refocused portfolio and exposure to premier fighter jet franchises are expected to support earnings. Strong share repurchase could strengthen EPS growth, and dividend increases could boost share prices.
Analyst: Jason Gursky
Source: Citi
Southern Company's high earnings growth outlook beats its historical earnings growth rate
Ticker: SO
Sector: Electric utilities
Why: Corporate bond yields support price multiples for utility stocks. And Southern Company's high earnings growth outlook, driven by environmental policy, exceeds its historical earnings growth rate and justifies a healthy premium to valuations on other utility stocks.
Analyst: Brian Chin
Source: Citi
Dr. Pepper Snapple Group's stock is cheap when compared with competitors
Ticker: DPS
Sector: Beverages
Why: Dr Pepper's stock is cheap (especially when compared with the Coca-Cola Company or Pepsico). It has strong free cash flow -- cash from company's operations minus capital expenses -- which is being used to boost dividend and repurchase shares.
Analyst: Wendy Nicholson
Source: Citi
Reynolds American's three-brand approach to the cigarette segment is expected to succeed in the long run
Ticker: RAI
Sector: Tobacco
Why: Reynolds American has a three-brand approach to the cigarette segment, and its approach to the high-margin smokeless tobacco segment is expected to succeed in the long run. The company's total tobacco strategy is expected to complement its cost savings initiatives. And Reynolds' EPS is growing driven by its $2.5 billion buyback program.
Analyst: Vivien Azer
Source: Citi
FMC Technologies is expected to be awarded 20 major projects that could drive earnings growth
Ticker: FTI
Sector: Oilfield equipment & services
Why: The company has solid long term earnings drivers for instance its 70-rig global deepwater fleet expansion over the next three years. FMC could be awarded 20 major projects which would impact earnings in 2013.
Analyst: Robin Shoemaker
Source: Citi
OpenTable has significant growth opportunity and sizable can gain market share
Ticker: OPEN
Sector: Internet
Why: OpenTable currently offers an attractive entry point because it has significant growth opportunity, has the opportunity to gain market share, dominates the U.S. market, and " proven model scalability" , with North American earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin at 50 percent or more.
Analyst: Mark Mahaney
Source: Citi
JC Penney has potential to boost long term earnings and CEO Ron Johnson is expected to boost profits
Ticker: JCP
Sector: Retailing - broadlines
Why: Other analysts underestimate JC Penney's potential for long-term earnings. CEO Ron Johnson is expected to improve profits by building on the brand's marketing message to attract new customers, cutting expenses and implementing a value-oriented -- perceived value -- pricing strategy.
Analyst: Deborah L. Weinswig
Source: Citi
Diamond Rock Hospitality has an attractive dividend
Ticker: DRH
Sector: Lodging
Why: DiamondRock Hospitality has a strong balance sheet, an attractive dividend of 4 percent, and potential for strong growth in 2012.
Analyst: Michael Bilerman
Source: Citi
Scripps Networks Interactive will see pace of share buybacks pick up and there's a 35 percent chance that it could be acquired
Ticker: SNI
Sector: Entertainment
Why: Scripps Networks is expected to pick up the pace of its capital return. The company's management has said it expects the pace of Q1 2012 buybacks to pick up. The ratings of the Food Network have been strong and there's a 35 percent chance that Scripps many be acquired.
Analyst: Jason Bazinet
Source: Citi
But if you're all about dividends...
5 Emerging Economies That Will Change The World
This post originally appeared at The Atlantic.
About 20 years after the Soviet Union collapsed, China opened, India liberalized, and Brazil saved its economy with the Plano Real, and 10 years after a banker at Goldman Sachs labeled them the BRICs, those four economic rising powers have transformed how we think about the developing world. The centuries-old idea that there is an uncrossable gulf between powerful, rich countries and everyone else has been disproven not just by BRICs' economic power but by their use of that power to help shape world events.
You might say that the glass ceiling has been broken. China, once the " sick man of Asia" and one of the world's poorest places, now boasts the world's second-largest economy and
may someday soon even surpass the U.S. in wealth. Now that we understand the global hierarchy to be less fixed than it once was, who will rise next? The conditions for a rising power are so complicated and so reliant on outside factors beyond any one country's control that accurately predicting them would be impossible. Still, some countries seem better positioned and better managed than others. Here are five of our choices for the next emerging economies, plus one outlier that could do well, if only it would pull itself together.
From TheAtlantic - shaping the national debate on the most critical issues of our times, from politics, business, and the economy, to technology, arts, and culture.
Turkey
When the Brookings Institute ranked the ten fastest-growing cities last month, three were Turkish (four were Chinese, but we can't all be China). The country's strong democratic institutions and entrepreneurial culture are driving booms in finance and construction, which are in turn growing cities that could become centers of manufacturing for export to Europe. Even as the rest of the continent declines, Turkish growth is surging it famously hit 11% last year, surpassing China. And, a century after the end of the Ottoman Empire, the country is renewing its assertive foreign policy in the Middle East and Central Asia, positioning itself as a leader of the Muslim world if (or perhaps when) these regions develop.
Indonesia
The world's fourth-largest country with 238 million people, Indonesia's economy has been growing rapidly since 1997. Unlike China, which depends heavily on exports, Indonesia sells mostly to its own people, meaning that it can better endure the U.S. and European crises. Debt is low, foreign direct investment is high, democratic institutions are young but solid, and the once-troubled country is stable after successfully curbing terrorism. A combination of China-style development and state-run enterprises, Brazil-style good governance, and an India-style rise from poverty means that Indonesia is well positioned to continue rising.
Kazakhstan
Long perceived as a global backwater and a post-Soviet satellite that never quite abandoned such Stalinist ticks as lifelong presidents who build statues of themselves, Kazakhstan is doing better than Borat would have you believe. Filthy rich in resources and sandwiched between China and Russia, the country is well positioned to profit off of Asia's rise, especially as Middle Eastern turmoil makes this sparsely populated and stable country an attractive energy source. The mostly benevolent government is investing the revenue wisely, growing infrastructure and non-energy industries such as transportation and pharmaceuticals, while still avoiding overheating. As long as Asia grows, so will Kazakhstan.
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Corruption and war have made " Congo" synonymous with disaster, and while the country is still deeply troubled, it's also making significant progress toward realizing its enormous economic potential. The Congolese mineral trade is fueling urbanization, a small but important middle class, infrastructure development, and a nascent telecommunications industry. If the country can hold on to political stability, there's little reason to think its recent years of eye-popping growth won't continue. Developing sufficient transportation infrastructure to make its agriculture more widely competitive could give the DRC's growth real longevity.
Mexico
The case for Mexico is cut-and-dry. It is the 12th largest economy in the world, growing at its healthiest pace in a decade. Three out of every four export dollars comes from the United States, which distinguishes Mexico from developing countries like Turkey, which rely on the sick euro zone to buy most of its exports. Mexico’s trade comes from a blend of manufactured goods and natural resources, which makes it well-positioned to withstand fluctuations in commodity prices. The Brookings Metropolitan Policy program recently named Mexico City one of the most economically vibrant cities in the world, based on employment and income growth. (This slide written by Derek Thompson.)
Nigeria (Maybe)
Getty Images Ltd. From 100 Places to Go Before They Disappear, published by Abrams.
Nigeria should be at the top of this list. It is by far Africa's most populous country, its most oil-rich after Libya, and could soon hit double-digit growth . Nigerian demography and geography make it a great candidate for economic success. But the Nigerian government, beset by corruption and an increasingly rebellious northern half (that should maybe be a different country entirely ), is managing its resources poorly. Though Nigeria's economy is booming, its absolute poverty rate has risen to 69% , with income inequality so bad it's inspired a national protest movement. Inflation is expected to rise, further squeezing the middle class. Nigeria has all the right ingredients for BRIC-style growth, and it may one day put them together, but for now even its booming energy sector can't promise economic security.
Now see why America's China strategy is wrong
Nixon Presidential Materials
CITI: Sell These 19 Stocks Because The Rest Of Wall Street Is In Love With Them
Sometimes going against the herd is a smart way of improving your returns.
In light of that, we ran
Citi's best contrarian buy stocks yesterday.
Now, we've drawn on
Citi analyst Javier Guardo's report for the top contrarian sells.
Note: Citi calculated its contrarian views relative to consensus by rankings its Sell-rated stocks against ascending mean consensus scores.
Baxter International is likely to suffer in a more competitive environment
Ticker: BAX
Sector: Medical supplies and technology
Why: IVIG -- blood products used to treat immune deficiencies and acute infections -- comparisons are likely to get more difficult this year in a more competitive environment, especially with Octapharma back on the market. The market for recombinant FVIII (rFVIII) used to treat hemophilia is also getting competitive and Baxter needs to develop that product pipeline.
Analyst: Matthew J. Dodds
Source: Citi
St. Jude Medical's share in pacemakers will decline and wall street is too bullish on its just approved defibrillator
Ticker: STJ
Sector: Medical supplies and technology
Why: St. Jude Medical's share gains in implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICDs) has slowed and share losses in pacemakers are expected to continue. Meanwhile, its Riata defibrillator leads have been recalled by the FDA because of their potential to hurt patients, and Wall Street is too bullish on the prospects of Quartet (Quadripolar, Left-ventricular Pacing Lead).
Analyst: Matthew J. Dodds
Source: Citi
VMware's growth is expected to be hurt by headwinds to its core business
Ticker: VMW
Sector: Software
Why: Headwinds in the core server business will see VMWare's growth slow this year. This is expected to have a negative impact on its cash flow.
Analyst: Walter H. Pritchard
Source: Citi
eHealthInsurance's core business looks weak and commission rates are expected to fall
Ticker: EHTH
Sector: Health care services
Why: eHealthInsurance's core business is under pressure, applications continue to miss expectations, and the company's commission rates are expected to fall in 2012.
The company's recent entry into Medicare distribution offers room for growth in the near-term, but individual health insurance commissions are expected to dive in 2014
, when the Dept. of Health and Human services' online health exchange goes live.
Analyst: Carl McDonald
Source: Citi
Celestica Inc is expected to miss revenue growth targets because of collateral damage from RIM
Ticker: CLS
Sector: Electronics manufacturing services
Why: Electronics manufacturer Celestica draws a large portion of its revenue from Blackberry maker Research in Motion. Continued problems at RIM are expected to hit Celestica and keep it from meeting its revenue growth target.
Analyst: Jim Suva
Source: Citi
Zimmer Holdings faces a competitive environment for its core product
Ticker: ZMH
Sector: Medical supplies and technology
Why: Zimmer Holdings is exposed to a difficult environment for hip and knee implants which account for 70 percent of its sales. The valuation is below the peer group average, but the company faces risk of share loss in revision products, and most EPS growth is expected to come from share repurchases.
Analyst: Matthew J. Dodds
Source: Citi
Walgreens is unlikely to resolve its dispute with Express Scripts this year
Ticker: WAG
Sector: Retailing - drugstores
Why: It is unlikely that we will see a resolution between Walgreens and Express Scripts in 2012. Walgreens also has limited negotiating leverage with benefits managers and its direct rates remain higher than employer's current pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) rates.
Analyst: Deborah Weinswig
Source: Citi
Akamai Technologies faces aggressive competition from Amazon
Ticker: AKAM
Sector: Software
Why: Akmai carries too much risk for its current valuation level, it faces greater competition from Amazon, and the stock price response to its Contendo deal was too aggressive.
Analyst: Mark Mahaney
Source: Citi
Abbott Laboratories will be hurt by competition from generic drugs and from a slowdown in Humira's growth
A man receives free AIDS drugs including Abbott Labs' Kaletra
AP
Ticker: ABT
Sector: Medical supplies and technology
Why: Growth of Abbott Labs' Humira, used to treat rheumatoid arthritis, is expected to slow, and generics are expected to hurt the company's lipids franchise over the next 2 years, showing that Wall Street forecasts may be too aggressive. Investor interest is also expected to fade.
Analyst: Matthew J. Dodds
Source: Citi
Masimo Corporation's market share gains will not be enough to meet its revenue outlook
Ticker: MASI
Sector: Medical supplies & technologies
Why: Masimo faces sales and profitability challenges to the pulse oximetry market. Pulse oximetry is a non-invasive method to monitor the oxygenation of hemoglobin.
It seems unlikely that its share gains will help meet its revenue outlook, especially since U.S. hospital admission trends are weak and the change to new technology has been slow.
Analyst: Matthew Dodds
Source: Citi
Urban Outfitters still has structural issues at Anthropologie
Ticker: URBN
Sector: Retailing - softlines
Why: Structural issues at Anthropolgie will likely cause a high level of markdowns.
Analyst: Jeff Black
Source: Citi
AvalonBay Communities Inc's shares are too expensive
Ticker: AVB
Sector: Real estate investment trusts (REIT)
Why: Multifamily fundamentals are strong, but AvalonBay's current stock price is too expensive considering its growth prospects, especially when compared with its peer group.
Analyst: Michael Bilerman
Source: Citi
Ormat Technologies outlook in the near term will be impacted by operational issues
Ticker: ORA
Sector: Alternative / renewable energy - other
Why: Operational issues are expected to hinder Ormat Technologies' near-term outlook. while growth is expected to be limited because of lack of meaningful power capacity additions in the next couple of years.
Analyst: Timothy M. Arcuri
Source: Citi
Best Buy's profits are expected to come under pressure and its international prospects look weak
Ticker: BBY
Sector: Retailing - hardlines
Why: Best Buy's gross profits are under pressure from commoditizing product channel / competitiveness i.e. the interchangeability of products and services between companies.
There are also long term concerns on its international prospects and a lack of short term catalysts to boost sales.
Analyst: Kate McShane
Source: Citi
Tenet Healthcare's low market share is hurting its ability to negotiate commercial payment rates
Ticker: THC
Sector: Health care facilities
Why: Tenet Healthcare operates in competitive large urban markets, but has low average market share which impacts its commercial payment rates. Current industry-low margins and the limited free cashflow generation are unlikely to pick up.
Analyst: Gary Taylor
Source: Citi
Monster Worldwide is losing market share to competitors and is hurt by slow economic recoveries in the developed world
Ticker: MWW
Sector: Internet
Why: Monster's outlook is weak because of slower than expected economic recoveries in the U.S. and EU. It has also lost market share to CareerBuilder in the U.S. and faces increasing competition from Linked In, which is gaining share among recruiters.
Analyst:
Source: Citi
Hospira could take financial blows from FDA consent decrees and has underlying profitability challenges
Ticker: HSP
Sector: Medical supplies & technology
Why: Hospira faces underlying profitability challenges and competition from its peers' capacity improvements for injectable drugs. The company still faces the near- term risk of an FDA consent decree, which could result in financial penalties and could reverse investor sentiment.
Analyst: Gregory Hertz
Source: Citi
Lincare is expected to be hit by competitive bidding
Ticker: LNCR
Sector: Health care facilities
Why: Lincare faces at least a 30 percent reimbursement cut on the 50 - 60 percent of its total revenues that fall into the competitive bid categories. Its valuation multiple is unlikely to expand in that event, and could contract if Republicans choose to accelerate the national implementation of Congress mandated competitive bid rates.
Analyst: Gary Taylor
Source: Citi
Yingli Green's assets could lose value because of oversupply
Ticker: YGE
Sector: Alternative / renewable energy - other
Why: Yingli's assets are at risk of being written down because of oversupply.
Analyst: Timothy M. Arcuri
Source: Citi
Looking for contrarian buys instead?
STOCKS RALLY, BUT FALL SHORT OF 13,000: Here's What You Need To Know
Oh so close.
First, the scoreboard:
Dow: 12,984.7, +42.0, +0.3%
S& P 500: 1,363.4, +5.8, +0.4%
NASDAQ: 2,956.9, +23.8, +0.8%
And now, the top stories:
- Europe offered a mixed picture ahead of the U.S. trading session. On the bright side, German business confidence jumped to 109.6, which was a seven-month high. This news fueled gains in European stocks and U.S. futures. However, big banks including UK's Royal Bank of Scotland and France's Credit Agricole reported huge net losses. The European Commission also slashed its GDP growth forecast for the eurozone. They now expect GDP in the 17-nation bloc to decline 0.3 percent, which compares to an earlier forecast calling for 0.5 percent gain.
- So, what's to be made of this mixed bag of news? Well, Citigroup's economic team led by Willem Buiter doesn't seem too concerned. In fact, the firm just lifted its euro area GDP growth forecast to -1.3 percent from -1.5 percent. This was part of their rationale for raising their global GDP growth outlook to 2.4 percent from 2.3 percent. Here Are The Best And Worst Economists Of 2011 >
- However, some bears will continue to be bears. In a new note to clients, SocGen's permabear Albert Edwards wrote that the stock market rally is being driven by hope. " Hope still beats in the breasts of equity investors," wrote Edwards. " The market will rip out that hope and consume it in front of investors' eyes." A Monster Market Surge Is Making These Folks Look Like Fools >
- U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 351k last week. This was flat from the prior week's number and also better than the 355k figure that economists were expecting. But Nomura economists think we shouldn't get too excited about the numbers just yet. In the last three years, they note that the trend for initial jobless claims has been the same: declining from September to February then leveling off. To that, Modeled Behavior's Karl Smith takes a longer-term look at the non-seasonally adjusted data, which shows that the trend is very visibly improving.
- Stocks traded noticeably higher shortly after the release of the Kansas City Federal Reserve's manufacturing index, which jumped to 13 from January's reading of 7. Economists were expecting an increase to 9. “Factories further ramped up activity in February and – despite a drop off in export orders – were more optimistic about future output and hiring than at any time in the past year,” wrote Chad Wilkerson of the Kansas City Fed.
- Shares of biotech company Vivus exploded higher today, after the FDA overwhelmingly endorsed its weight-loss drug Qnexa.
- It's also worth noting that oil jumped to almost $108 per barrel. This has economists worried that higher energy costs will be a damper on consumer spending.
