Swiber   

Swiber

as long as $1.03 not break down descending triangle will not take place. 

 

 

Looks like a descending triangle is taking shape...

 

wa some scooping done at 105.

 

thinkthe gap up at 108 is imminent.

3 cents for two day work may be encouraging.

For you to find out and for me to know

 

	12 Nov 2010 Singapore
Swiber Holdings
Result note - Operationally sound - by Lim Siew Khee
(SWIB SP / SWBR.SI, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, S$1.08 - Tgt. S$1.37, Oil Equipment and Services)
Swiber's 3Q10 net profit of US$7m (-52% yoy) is 35% below our expectation and 30% below consensus. 9M10 net profit of US$29m (-30% yoy) forms 62% of our FY10 forecast and 68% of consensus. The shortfall came from higher interest expense and lower associate contributions. Although we are expecting a stronger 4Q10 from the execution of large projects in India, we are obliged to cut our FY10-12 earnings estimates by 7-8% to adjust for interest and associate assumptions. Our new target price of S$1.37 (from S$1.42) incorporates our earnings downgrade and rollover to 12x CY12 P/E (5-year sector average) from 12x CY11 P/E. Nevertheless, maintain Outperform as we continue to see catalysts from a ramp-up in profits from any sizeable contract wins.

 

Steady , the result is good , and the causes of the net profit is non recurring so dun be so gan cheong unless you contra , of course suggest u sell all you can.

 

otherwise, suspect contract award in the pipeline or M&A activities in the pipeline.

des_khor      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 01:25) Posted: Agreed ! already breakout twice on 04/11 and 11/11.... hoprfully will not breakdown tmr !! touch wood !! FearValueGreed      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 01:22) Posted: By announcing one day advance, This is good news. Looks likely counter will surge over the next few days and break out from its tight range. Expect some brokers to upgrade this stock 1.20 should be the resistance level unless a few contract announcement is made. Dun be greedy but then there is no other good stock to buy lately as most are above the cloud now.   Only this Turtle is still reasonable price.  Tmr if the volume hit 2000lots by the first 15min ,expect breakout,   cross finger and cross leg

 

Sell sell sell...

No catalyst to move higher..

Moreover overall markets are dropping.

*Only my own feelings, dun be influence by me ok...

 

I suggest better stay out first .... 1.04 breaking soon !!

 

sianz..mass selling today...

 

1.05 very strong hold.... if break will go down below a dollar again....

des_khor      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 01:30) Posted: Very strange stock as we can see all 3 MA now at around $1.05 level.... hopefully will not break tmr !!

 

STand by to load up a little bit more! This bugger is unlikely to drop below $1.02

 

Gap down very bearish sign !!

 

i want to sell my swiber share liao... hopefully when i sell it dont shoot up, else i will "teh" lampa.

 

I think no chance liao..need to cut win

 

Latest one ??

ozone2002      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 09:39) Posted: have faith in the counter.. look @ the forest n not the trees.. SP: Swiber - 3Q10's gross profit up 80% yoy; re-rating is just round the corner.   Swiber Holdings (SWIB SP)        BUY Price: S$1.08/Target: S$1.45                Analyst: Nancy Wei/Stella Tan         Tel: (65) 6590-6628/6629                 Mkt Cap: US$428.9b        Daily Vol: US$6.4m        1-Yr Hi/Lo: S$1.25/0.86 3Q10 Results     3Q10 net profit, -52% yoy,  is distorted by lower gains from vessels sales of US$7.0m vs US$17.2m in 3Q09 as there were less sale & leaseback transactions and mark-to-market provisions.   Gross profit is a better gauge of operating performance.  3Q10 gross profit increased by 80% yoy with gross margin improved by 6.4ppt to 21.7% in 3Q10 from 15.3% in 3Q09.  3Q10 turnover increased by 27% yoy.   3Q10 EBITDA increased by a mere 5% because of mark-to-market expenses in 3Q10  - a) US$4.7m fair value loss on financial liabilities due to mark-to-market loss on Swiber's convertible bonds and b) US$5.2m FX loss due to translation losses on Swiber's S$-denominated debt (accounts are in US$).         Associate contributions declined by US$2.8m (-57% yoy) to US$2.1m in 3Q10 from US$4.9m in 3Q09 due to a JV experiencing operational deficit during its initial stage of operations.     Gross Profit   Our Take We are  pleased with 3Q10's good core performance and believe that a re-rating for Swiber is just round the corner.  We attribute Swiber’s lacklustre share price ytd to its unexciting quarterly performance in 1H10.  We expect the company's earnings to start mirroring its large orderbook of US$900m more meaningfully from 4Q10 onwards with the impact from the three Indian contracts.  We maintain our earnings forecasts and target price of S$1.45 pending more details from today's analyst briefing.  We append our last report for more details.

 

have faith in the counter.. look @ the forest n not the trees..

SP: Swiber - 3Q10's gross profit up 80% yoy; re-rating is just round the corner.  

Swiber Holdings (SWIB SP)        BUY
Price: S$1.08/Target: S$1.45                Analyst: Nancy Wei/Stella Tan         Tel: (65) 6590-6628/6629                 Mkt Cap: US$428.9b        Daily Vol: US$6.4m        1-Yr Hi/Lo: S$1.25/0.86

3Q10 Results  
 

3Q10 net profit, -52% yoy,  is distorted by lower gains from vessels sales of US$7.0m vs US$17.2m in 3Q09 as there were less sale & leaseback transactions and mark-to-market provisions.  

Gross profit is a better gauge of operating performance.  3Q10 gross profit increased by 80% yoy with gross margin improved by 6.4ppt to 21.7% in 3Q10 from 15.3% in 3Q09.  3Q10 turnover increased by 27% yoy.  

3Q10 EBITDA increased by a mere 5% because of mark-to-market expenses in 3Q10  - a) US$4.7m fair value loss on financial liabilities due to mark-to-market loss on Swiber's convertible bonds and b) US$5.2m FX loss due to translation losses on Swiber's S$-denominated debt (accounts are in US$).        

Associate contributions declined by US$2.8m (-57% yoy) to US$2.1m in 3Q10 from US$4.9m in 3Q09 due to a JV experiencing operational deficit during its initial stage of operations.    

Gross Profit
 

Our Take
We are  pleased with 3Q10's good core performance and believe that a re-rating for Swiber is just round the corner.  We attribute Swiber’s lacklustre share price ytd to its unexciting quarterly performance in 1H10.  We expect the company's earnings to start mirroring its large orderbook of US$900m more meaningfully from 4Q10 onwards with the impact from the three Indian contracts.  We maintain our earnings forecasts and target price of S$1.45 pending more details from today's analyst briefing.  We append our last report for more details.  

 

nope cut win ~

 

Cut loss ??

zhixuen      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 08:14) Posted: Why dropping of net profit share price will still surge le? Izzit analyst expect loss on Q3? Please advice I'm queuing on $1.06 to sell,

 

Why dropping of net profit share price will still surge le?

Izzit analyst expect loss on Q3?

Please advice I'm queuing on $1.06 to sell,

 

I remember i watch money mind few weeks ago....Swiber TP is at $1.45...but is not even close to 20% of $1.45...hope there will be a break out tomorrow..Yap, all 3 in the the same level but MACD in positive territory have a bit of chance.....

 

Very strange stock as we can see all 3 MA now at around $1.05 level.... hopefully will not break tmr !!