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the way i see it for HDB resale dropping 25% in Sep is due to the new cooling measures as buyers are waiting to buy cheaper AND sellers are unwilling to sell low.....with economies in Asia gradually improving...looks like sellers will win this tug of war ! :P
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SINGAPORE: The Housing and Development Board's (HDB)
resale price index has been closely watched, with many looking for signs that
the property cooling measures introduced are making an impact.
Releasing
its flash estimates on Friday, HDB said prices of resale flats rose 4 per cent
in the third quarter to hit a new high.
But the authority said most of
the transactions were registered before the measures kicked in.
Prices
had risen 4.1 per cent in the second quarter.
HDB said the number of
resale transactions however fell 10 per cent over the second quarter to about
8,200.
HDB said most of the transactions in the third quarter were
submitted before the announcement of the property measures on August 30.
As such, it said the impact of the measures is not fully reflected in
the data yet.
Nevertheless, HDB said it's estimated that the monthly
resale transaction volume in September declined by 25 per cent compared to
August.
"Many private property owners and PRs (Permanent Residents) have
withdrawn their plans to purchase HDB resale flats in order to keep their
existing properties," said Steven Tan, director of Residential, OrangeTee.
First-time HDB home buyers too, are taking a wait-and-see approach as
many expect prices to fall even more.
Analysts said the fourth quarter
would be a better gauge of the full impact of the cooling measures.
Even
then, it would take some time before prices start coming down.
Eugene
Lim, associate director of ERA Asia Pacific said: "Transactions are being closed
at lower COVs (Cash-Over-Valuation). But that does not mean that resale price is
falling. It just means that it's increasing but at a very much slower rate. So
this is expected to normalise the market."
"So in terms of pricing, we
will probably see property prices stabilise. And if the drop in COV reduces to
zero, then you will start to see the price index come down."
Analysts
said prices are expected to remain stable, with marginal or no increase
quarter-on-quarter for the first half of next year.
Meanwhile, HDB said
it was ramping up its new flat supply significantly to meet the demand from
first-timer households.
In a commentary in the TODAY newspaper, National
Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said he had tasked HDB to see how it can
improve the chances of those who have had multiple unsuccessful applications.
For the last quarter of this year, HDB will launch 3,400 flats under the
Build-to-Order (BTO) scheme to bring the total BTO flat supply for 2010 to
16,000.
Together with the sale of balance flats in August, the total new
flat supply for 2010 will reach 17,600.
For the first quarter of 2011,
HDB will launch about 5,000 BTO flats, as part of the supply of 22,000 new flats
planned for next year.
It said the upcoming BTO projects in the next six
months would enjoy a good geographical spread in towns such as Bukit Panjang,
Yishun, Punggol and Sengkang.
HDB said it would also release more land
for the development of Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) flats and Executive
Condominiums (EC) units to provide choices for higher income households.
Based on the land sales scheduled for this year, there will be about
3,000 units under DBSS and 4,000 units under the EC Housing Scheme.
It
said the developers would be launching the units for sale later this year or
next year.
-CNA/wk/ls