Olam Intl   

Chart update

Scary looks like $1.20-1.30 possible waiting to vest..

 

Olam Muddy Waters Saga Chart Review as at 7th Dec 2012 1030am

Battle of the channels in progress. Price movement at channel cross road. Red channel vs blue channel.

Take note of lower support of the blue channel. Failure of this support will see more downward pressure along the red channel. Breakdown of immediate support will probably test support zone 1 as indicated on the chart.

Conversely, if price can propel above the upper resistance of the red channel then the blue channel will become the dominant channel. Take note of potential support and resistance zones as shown on the chart. Make use of support and resistance reversal trading strategies. Be nimble.

View charts at http://tactcharts.blogspot.sg/

 

Olam Muddy Waters Saga In Chart Format as at 22nd Nov 2012 12.48 pm

The current Olam Muddy Waters Saga will probably see range trading between the blue immediate support zone and the red immediate resistance zone. A breakout above the red zone will meet the next potential resistance zone indicated by the green rectangle box.

Take note that if there is a failure to move above the red zone and if the blue zone support does not hold an imminent slide between the blue dotted channel will be triggered.

View chart at http://tactcharts.blogspot.sg/

 

Both Olam and Noble are good companies to hold for the long term. But I feel Noble has alot more upside based on the disconnect between their valuations.

stevenk      ( Date: 24-Dec-2009 13:49) Posted: Cool....U r great. Thanks....Nice meeting u....

 

Cool....U r great. Thanks....Nice meeting u....

 

Initially yes when it had Temasek as a cornerstone investor. But this advantage has been negated when CIC came knocking on Noble Group's door for a 15% stake. Suddenly, Olam look like a fool to take in Temasek since Singapore is a non-player in the agriculture world and Temasek will not be able to help Olam expand into any of the new growth sectors - India, China and South America. This is unlike CIC who can easily open its doors to Noble through its PRC connections. The largest shareholder of MacArthur Coal was CITIC (state owned PRC coy) and now it is giving way to Noble Group. First tangible benefit of a CIC backing!

 

stevenk      ( Date: 24-Dec-2009 12:46) Posted: Hi, thanks for your details provided.  In your opinion, does Olam deserved a higher premium over Noble?

 

Hi, thanks for your details provided.  In your opinion, does Olam deserved a higher premium over Noble?

 

PE COMPARISON

Noble Earnings 2008 - 579.738 mil USD
No of Shares: 3,843,180,234
EPS: 15.08 US cents = 20.90 SGD cents
Share Price: 3.14
PE: 15.0

Since 9M 2009 has recorded a growth of 7% in net profits, forward PE would be slightly less (14.0).

A fortune 2000, CIC-backed and Asia Fab 50 company trading at PE 14!!!

Olam Earnings 2009 - SGD 252 mil
No of Shares: 1,991,891,683
EPS: 12.65 SGD cents
Share Price: 2.58
PE: 20.4

Olam, a company with revenue, net profit and NAV thrice smaller than Noble Group is trading at significant premium over Noble.

NAV COMPARISON

Noble Group Net Asset Value: 3.1 bil USD
No of Shares: 3,843,180,234
NAV: 80.7 US cents
P/B: 2.80

Olam Net Asset Value: 1,393,397,000 SGD
No of Shares: 1,991,891,683
NAV: 70 SGD cents
P/B: 3.69

 

hi, does that mean Olam current share price is much more expensive as compared to Wilmar and Noble?

 

EPS: SGD 12.65 cents

At PE 15 (based on what Wilmar and Noble is trading), its share price should be $1.90

 

hi, have any one do a Intrinsic Value Analysis how much Olam is worth?

 

the recent vol is there, near term support shld be ok, once it breakout the wedge, it will be ok

tact888      ( Date: 23-Dec-2009 16:56) Posted: Rebound from resistance turned support line More details and chart at http://tact888.blogspot.com/2009/12/olam-resistance-turned-support-rebounce.html

 

Rebound from resistance turned support line

More details and chart at http://tact888.blogspot.com/2009/12/olam-resistance-turned-support-rebounce.html