Olam Intl   

OLAM_OLAM

FT: Olam strategy yet to convince investors

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa0df8ac-4f50-11e3-b06e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2l9B8HnJS

 

 

Olam is still stuck in a downward trend - lower highs and lower lows - which commenced in late 2010.

 

The volume for Olam warrant is healthy today (800 lots done between USD0.250~260), and there are around 200+ lots queueing to buy at USD 0.260 (meaning mother share will need to hit $1.92 for the warrant to be in money).

I believe there will be some price movement soon for the mother share as the warrant transcation volume has been very low for the past few weeks.

 

Olam?s slower earnings growth due to scale-back in capex and its vulnerability to rising cost of debt. Olam?s weak balance sheet and increasing exposure to politically and economically unstable geographies, such as Africa, where risk premiums are higher, reduce justification for valuation discount to narrow. Maybank KE.

 

Analysts have been dead wrong last few years on Olam. Almost all recomended a buy and keep revising their price target DOWN progressively. At some point they will be right. But look at their record. They once had a $4 12-month fwd price target. Now its more like $2.

Can price run up? Yes, especially when the avg daily traded  value is less than  .2% of total mkt capitalisation (the decimal place was missing the last time I wrote).

 

 

Good input on OLam....

As they have become cash positive...within a quarter...by any financial management this is good.
Researcher are only awaiting to re-rate this counter.  Anyway , those who have bro it below 1.50...hehe
can have profit now.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 16-Nov-2013 19:39) Posted: Correct!!! Core profit increased by 28% after removal of accounting distortion!!! Someone in Liongold told me my Olam analysis is a joke. Eh, come on out and explain to us how its is a joke? Lol Shorting Dogs, Keyboard warrior at best.     Despite EBITDA growth across all segments. Olam International grew its core profit by 28% yoy to S$42.3m in 1QFY14, slightly beating expectations, but DBS Vickers cautioned that investors that " we would like to monitor its earnings delivery and sustainability of cash flow improvement for another quarter or two before turning positive on the counter." Still, management insisted on a positive outlook ahead, claiming that while operating environment remains challenging, Olam is expected to see earnings growth stemming from previous investments. Net gearing, which stayed at 1.93x as of end Sept, will be kept below its 2x ceiling. Olam generated positive free cash flow to firm (FCFF) of S$46m (vs deficit of S$707m in 1Q13) this quarter, said DBS. " Further unlocking value of past investments, slower capex pace and higher operating cash flow should keep its positive FCFF in check," said DBS. " The recently announced sale and leaseback of Australoia Almond Orchards is expected to free up A$200m cash and generate one-time post tax capital gain of A$45m when finalised by 3Q14," it added. Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 17:43) Posted: Ok Forecast failed. Discouraging Points -Profit 3% hike only -Thanks to much lower other income -Non-cash fair value gain on biological asset is also a huge  factor -Non cash depreciation increased. Encouraging Points -Cashflow start flowing in fromoperating activities as compared to huge cash deficit a year earlier. Should see much bigger cash inflow soon. -Started paying off debt and stopped borrowing -Removing the distortion from non cash biological asset gain, profit still grows by nearly 20%. -Depreciation should reduce as Olam continues operating lease strategy   NVM I hold.

 

you enjoy thumbs down, i help you, here one more for you:

6 Will the gutless vermin who always gives people thumbs down put up your case for Olam or buzz off!

go ahead enjoy for one hour. enough?

 

you enjoy thumbs down, i help you, here one more for you:


5 Will the gutless vermin who always gives people thumbs down put up your case for Olam or buzz off!

 

you enjoy thumbs down, i help you, here one more for you:


4 Will the gutless vermin who always gives people thumbs down put up your case for Olam or buzz off!

 

you enjoy thumbs down, i help you, here one more for you:


3 Will the gutless vermin who always gives people thumbs down put up your case for Olam or buzz off!

 

you enjoy thumbs down, i help you, here one more for you:


2 Will the gutless vermin who always gives people thumbs down put up your case for Olam or buzz off!

 

1 Will the gutless vermin who always gives people thumbs down put up your case for Olam or buzz off!

 

Correct!!! Core profit increased by 28% after removal of accounting distortion!!!

Someone in Liongold told me my Olam analysis is a joke. Eh, come on out and explain to us how its is a joke? Lol Shorting Dogs, Keyboard warrior at best.

 

 

Despite EBITDA growth across all segments.

Olam International grew its core profit by 28% yoy to S$42.3m in 1QFY14, slightly beating expectations, but DBS Vickers cautioned that investors that " we would like to monitor its earnings delivery and sustainability of cash flow improvement for another quarter or two before turning positive on the counter."

Still, management insisted on a positive outlook ahead, claiming that while operating environment remains challenging, Olam is expected to see earnings growth stemming from previous investments.

Net gearing, which stayed at 1.93x as of end Sept, will be kept below its 2x ceiling. Olam generated positive free cash flow to firm (FCFF) of S$46m (vs deficit of S$707m in 1Q13) this quarter, said DBS.

" Further unlocking value of past investments, slower capex pace and higher operating cash flow should keep its positive FCFF in check," said DBS.

" The recently announced sale and leaseback of Australoia Almond Orchards is expected to free up A$200m cash and generate one-time post tax capital gain of A$45m when finalised by 3Q14," it added.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 17:43) Posted: Ok Forecast failed. Discouraging Points -Profit 3% hike only -Thanks to much lower other income -Non-cash fair value gain on biological asset is also a huge  factor -Non cash depreciation increased. Encouraging Points -Cashflow start flowing in fromoperating activities as compared to huge cash deficit a year earlier. Should see much bigger cash inflow soon. -Started paying off debt and stopped borrowing -Removing the distortion from non cash biological asset gain, profit still grows by nearly 20%. -Depreciation should reduce as Olam continues operating lease strategy   NVM I hold.

 

You are bro. But some also feel shok to see the Ang mo squeeze balls. Haha for fun:)

Obfuscate      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 15:06) Posted: No need to think. The one year return is still negative which ever way you slice and dice it. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/OLAM:SP beginners      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 14:41) Posted: I wander MW still holding any shorts. If it is think they will bang balls. Unless MW already clear position.

 

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 17:09) Posted: gfmkim      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 14:42) Posted:

 

gfmkim      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 14:42) Posted: gfmkim      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 08:58) Posted:

 

No need to think. The one year return is still negative which ever way you slice and dice it. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/OLAM:SP

beginners      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 14:41) Posted: I wander MW still holding any shorts. If it is think they will bang balls. Unless MW already clear position.

 

gfmkim      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 08:58) Posted: Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 18:00) Posted: Relax. If you really really want to look at the profit figures only (without removal of accounting distortion). At the very very least, it dispel off MW's claim that it is too late for Olam. Wah we generate cash already leh

 

I wander MW still holding any shorts. If it is think they will bang balls. Unless MW already clear position.

 

Like Muddywater say, they didn't expect Temasek to intervene, like AIA, Bank of America and Citibank, too big to fail. Furthermore it is an STI index component. The risk are really minimise, i expect it will hit 1.6+ by year end. Minimum.