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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Jul-2008 23:00
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yay! finally another singaporean who thinks like me!  most will think i'm nutso, but yuppers, i intend at most to bankrupt CPF for housing. otherwise, i don't even bother counting what's in it. 
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Jul-2008 22:56
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oop. Buffett or more precisely, Graham criteria: you don't buy a stock if you cannot sleep at night without knowing its share price. Preferably at NAV or below. Div yield at least 5%. growth is evident. Low PE. etcetcetc. If we were to apply these criteria, not even the bluest of the blue like Sembcorp, DBS etcetc would make the cut. And if you're talking about FA pennies (of which there are some here): the trouble is our local market is very tightly controlled due to its total size (very small): so when an FA penny runs up is likely when a bull run is on. In which case, you may as well just hantam any penny in a bull year, the returns will be the same. it all depends on which penny the BBs choose to run up. Nothing to do with value at all. FA news is just another reason for a run. You can just as easily cook up any ol' story for a hungry market, and the px will go up. The only dif is in a bear market: where the div yield of the good penny will show itself; thereby reducing investor loss and actually providing a steady income; and where it can rise again like other blues, unlike most speculatives which will just crash and burn. And yah. 14 stocks. How do you even find 14 stocks that are worth buying? o_0 i never hold more than 5 counters at one time.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Jul-2008 22:49
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yuppers, livermore. 
on both TA and FA, i would buy ML now but not sell it. (DCA does take skill though.) And yes, don't depend on CPF. i perceive that we're from the same generation then: where min sum of 120k is locked up, and it can't be redrawn as one lump sum? not to mention i wouldn't be surprised if they keep shifting the redrawal date later and later. so it simply made more financial sense to me to write off the cpf sum in my calculations, rather than depend on something that cannot be depended upon. 
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Jul-2008 22:36
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553 lowest possible; 560 is a good px if you can get it. consistent strong buyups at 5.63-5.66. scalp to run at 5.9. 2 weeks max. caveat applies. not vested. cheers. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Jul-2008 22:32
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oop. had forgotten abt this counter: it ran up and down since my posting. fast scalp counter. shd have another up at the ollie rally though. if conditions from the US and oil prices hold. blues to run up first. buy on dip philo applies (talking abt short term technical scalps across the board) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Jul-2008 22:30
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...if both temasek and ML refuse to release the new px of the offer shares, how can reuters calculate that temasek's px is 21? i do agree with 178investors though: longterm, it's a blue chip bank still. 5-7 years down, the next bull run, the value would be high as this current crisis is forgotten. Markets move in a rhythm. Plus, at the low, it makes more technical sense to buy than to sell. and hehe, no lah, not tearing my hair out. ultimately, it's their money, not mine: if i don't tear my hair out over ML's losses, or UBS, why should i care about temasek? the fact is, for me personally, i've never considered CFP as my money: i write off the whole sum as being 'not mine'. trader88 has a v good point: political diplomacy. The gains we get from FTAs and suchlike will likely far outweigh whatever loss that temasek currently sits on. STI should move up. my own expectation is 3,100 by 2nd week aug. let's see if it'll materialise. :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Jul-2008 16:36
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em...178, not so easy a calculation... for one thing: they're plowing the money back into new shares, not just taking the 'capital reduction', so to speak. and they're putting in a further 0.9 bil. for another: raising share capital => dilution of existing value. So actual px of what temasek owns, and its value, has to be calculated by: A) Total Cost: (87mil shares x cost price at US$48) + US$3.4bil - 2.5bil = 5.076bil. B) No: of shares: 87mil + (3.4bil/offer price of shares) = _____ C) A divided by B will give the average cost price of Temasek's new holdings. --- Calculation of ML's new value: A) 8.5bil + 1.3bil options + existing share capital = _total new capital of ML____ B) existing share float + new shares = new share float C) Dilultion of NAV and EPS has to be calculated by new float/existing float in % terms, taking that %, and applying it to the existing EPS/NAV. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Jul-2008 15:17
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eeee.....no cockroaches. nonononooooo!!! hammies are adorable. i had them before. thought i wanted something bigger now tho. hehe. a baby campbell hammie on a spoon (not for eating.  )
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Jul-2008 15:13
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hehe, in one word: "face". but eh, the maths don't work out. ML pays Temasek 2.5bil, but they buy 3.4bil. that's instant net loss of 0.9bil. (-_-").... anyway, for today's market, it's a dip on low vol. And pxes are near their previous lows. ie, don't sell in a panic pls. the rebound will likely be swift and fast.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
28-Jul-2008 23:38
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yah. but it better go up after consolidation. hmph. thank goodness for forex, or i'd be bored out of my skull. hehe. 
elfie needs new toys. i should like a little guinea pig. hehe.
oops. mebbe the little slurping tongue isn't appropriate when you're talking about pets. hehe. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
28-Jul-2008 23:34
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keke. don't much see the need for rivalry. they're both trading/growth stocks, not fundamental stocks. the difference, though, is in who is backing what. and from there you make your trading choice.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
28-Jul-2008 23:09
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sian.  damned dow going  again.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
28-Jul-2008 23:02
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hmm. the criteria are good, but it's perhaps more applicable for a large market. ours is so small, you wanna find a buffett kind of stock, it's more like, forget it. may as well be like this fella: 
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elfinchilde
Elite |
28-Jul-2008 17:29
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haha, yuppers, baseer, i know what that means. 
market makers all loaded up, or waiting to be unleashed. 
here's hoping for an ollie rally and a NDP rally!  when PM Lee gives NDP rally speech, the market should show support. Right????
meanwhile, it's nap time! |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
28-Jul-2008 16:23
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i see CWQuah also =  while baseer =
market is reeallll snail-y today man. even forex is slow.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
28-Jul-2008 15:46
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CWQuah, can you imagine, one little elfin beetle car, being chased by a lot of rentokil/pestbuster vans puffing out fumigation smoke. 
mathematical equation: market = elf x k, where k is an unknown constant. market = , therefore elf = .
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elfinchilde
Elite |
28-Jul-2008 00:41
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just wondering in general.... are our people really so calculative when it comes to angpows and/or weddings... had a friend of a friend who was doing the same thing you were doing, jj....(-_-").... enjoy your honeymoon! :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
27-Jul-2008 22:10
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yea. concur with livermore. perhaps the distinction should not be between "blue chip" and "penny stock" but between speculative stocks, and good fundamental stocks. (keeping in mind that at times, the line can cross). look at cosco for instance. it can be considered a blue chip, but it still died post '07. meanwhile, there are some pennies that are still doing swimmingly. "cheap" should perhaps be considered relative to fundamental criteria, rather than price per se. If for instance i told you a stock's NAV is $2, and it's 1.5 now. compared to a penny whose NAV is 1c, but price is 20c. Which is 'cheap'? n00bs need to learn that. as the saying goes, "the market is an expensive place to find yourself." |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
27-Jul-2008 22:03
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hehe, luostock, most people are more willing to talk about their winnings than about their losings. so i do think the vote would be skewed.
like a classic bimbo, elfie has no idea about cars, as long as they get me from point A to point B. and no, i don't drive, since i'll likely just be a road hazard with my complete lack of a sense of direction. Plus, i'll probably cause a tiny spike in oil prices from petrol wastage in getting lost.
i like the little volkswagen beetle tho. it's cute! If i ever have a car, i'd like to have it red, and have black spots on it, and i'll dress up its antenna as a feeler! 
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elfinchilde
Elite |
26-Jul-2008 00:45
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hm. did some digging and think i've figured it out. but perhaps better not to say on open forum. 
basically, MFFAIS data is partially wrong; temasek aren't lying when they said their holdings was the same since mar 31 '08. ok, done for the week. byes! |
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