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Latest Forum Topics / Straits Times Index  Post Reply
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
bola_no1
Senior
13-Oct-2008 19:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		After today's STI rally, will it go all the way? Can go in already? advise?
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Hulumas
Supreme
13-Oct-2008 17:16     
 
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Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!"
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 Alert Admin 		THANKS BE TO GOD........ What a relief... It should be bottomed out hopefully.
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AK_Francis
Supreme
13-Oct-2008 17:10     
 
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Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers."
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Hope it will maintain above 2k this week to ease out tension accumulated over the last 2 weeks. Cheers.
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cyjjerry85
Elite
13-Oct-2008 16:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		hope the volume will continue to be good on this up day
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Blastoff
Elite
13-Oct-2008 16:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Market reacting well so far.... hopefully it will last....
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aleoleo
Master
13-Oct-2008 16:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		wah.... really a good start for the week..... just now ride on the keppelCorp.... what a good ride...... roller coaster.... haa.....
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Farmer
Master
13-Oct-2008 13:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		God is too far away right now....perhaps Mr Markets has the answers to that so watch them closely.
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aleoleo
Master
13-Oct-2008 13:02     
 
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Global stocks: A good start

Stocks in overseas markets opened higher following action by European governments. U.S. futures point up.

YEss... it is a good start and should be a new week with new sentiments. With US DJ future pointing up to +280.... believe today,

tomorrow regional market should close in Green. But how long will this last..... think only GOD knows..... play safe buddies...

 

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ozone2002
Supreme
13-Oct-2008 11:32     
 
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For some investors, it's back to stocks

The four most dangerous words for investors are: This time is different.

In 1999, technology companies with no earnings or sales were valued at billions of dollars. But this time was different, investors told themselves. The Internet could not be missed at any price.

They were wrong. In 2000 and 2001 technology stocks plunged, erasing trillions of dollars in wealth.

Now investors have again convinced themselves that this time is different, that the credit crisis will push economies worldwide into the deepest recession since the Depression. Fear runs even deeper today than greed did a decade ago.

But in their panic, investors are ignoring 60 years of history. Since the Depression, governments have become far more aggressive about intervening when credit markets seize up or economies struggle. And those interventions have generally succeeded. The recessions since World War II, while hardly easy, have been far less painful than the Depression.

"The fact is, there are a lot of tremendous bargains out there," said Heebner, who manages about $10 billion in several mutual funds. Indeed, by many measures stocks are as cheap as they have been in the last 25 years.

He pointed to Chesapeake Energy, a natural gas producer that he owns in his CGM Focus mutual fund. In July, Chesapeake traded for $63 a share. On Friday, it fell as low as $11.99.

He says that investors with a stomach for risk and a long time horizon should consider following Warren Buffett, who in the last three weeks has invested $8 billion in Goldman Sachs and General Electric.

Heebner expects world economies to contract over the next year. But he said the market plunge in the last week was no longer being driven by rational analysis. Stocks are probably falling because of a combination of panic and forced selling by hedge funds that must meet margin calls from their lenders, he said.

Heebner's funds have not avoided the carnage this year. The CGM Focus fund is down about 42 percent so far in 2008. But his long-term track record is impressive. In the decade that ended Dec. 31, 2007, CGM Focus rose 26 percent a year, including reinvested dividends, making it among the best-performing mutual funds.

Heebner is not alone in his optimism.

"I think in years to come — I wouldn't say months to come — we will perceive this as being a great value-buying opportunity," said David Stowell, a finance professor at Northwestern and a former managing director at JPMorgan Chase. "Two and three years from now, it will seem very smart."

Even before their jaw-dropping plunge of the last month, stocks were not expensive by historical standards, based on fundamentals like earnings and cash flow. Now, after falling 30 percent or more since early September, stocks in stalwart, profitable corporations like Nokia, Exxon Mobil and Boeing are trading at nine times their annual profits per share or less. Many smaller companies are even cheaper. Some of those stocks are trading at five times earnings or less.

Those ratios are historically low. Over all, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is trading at about 13 times its expected profits for 2009, its lowest level in decades. In contrast, at the height of the technology bubble in early 2000, the stocks in the S&P traded at about 30 times earnings, the highest level ever. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury bond paid about 6 percent interest, compared with less than 4 percent today.

Investors have fled stocks in favor of government bonds, insured bank deposits and other low-risk investments because they are deeply afraid of the worldwide economic crisis, said Stephen Haber, an economic historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. But he said he believed that fear might have gone too far.

"If there is good and wise policy, and government moves effectively, this need not play itself out in ways like the Great Depression, which is the image that is playing itself out in people's mind," Haber said. Government action typically does not work immediately, and banking crises around the world often require multiple interventions, he said.

Still, optimists remain in the minority on Wall Street. Most investors seem to believe that the credit crisis will do substantial damage to stocks and overall economic activity.

"We have never before seen for such sustained periods of time such a sustained turn away from risk taking," said Steven Wieting, the chief United States economist for Citigroup. "This has broken out of the boundaries we've seen." Economic activity appears to have slowed sharply in September, Wieting said.

The panic last week took the biggest toll on financial companies, as well as companies that are highly leveraged. But stocks fell 10 to 30 percent even for companies typically thought to be resistant to economic downturns, like the manufacturers of consumer staples.

For example, Newell Rubbermaid fell to $12.82 on Friday from $17.34 on Oct. 1, a 26 percent decline in 10 days. Newell Rubbermaid now trades at its lowest levels since 1990, and just eight times its expected earnings for next year.

Yet Newell Rubbermaid, whose brands include Calphalon, is profitable and insulated from the credit crisis, said William Schmitz Jr., who follows household products companies for Deutsche Bank. "There's really no balance sheet risk," Schmitz said. The company also pays a 6 percent dividend.

Newell Rubbermaid said in July that it would earn $1.40 to $1.60 a share for 2008, excluding restructuring charges. For 2009, stock analysts predict it will make $1.53 a share. And while a slowing economy may mean that people will be buying fewer products from Newell Rubbermaid, the recent plunge in oil prices will reduce its costs, Schmitz said.

"The way the stock's reacted, you'd think they were going out of business," he said.

Martin Whitman, a professional investor for more than 50 years, said that as long as economies worldwide could avoid an outright depression, stocks were amazingly cheap. Whitman manages the $6 billion Third Avenue Value fund, which returned 10.2 percent annually for the 15 years that ended Sept. 30, almost two percentage points a year better than the S&P 500 index. The fund is down 46 percent this year.

"This is the opportunity of a lifetime," Whitman said. "The most important securities are being given away."
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scotty
Senior
13-Oct-2008 10:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		STI losing steam liao... why ah?
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ozone2002
Supreme
13-Oct-2008 08:55     
 
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nibbling bit by bit is called dollar cost averaging..

as nobody can catch the bottom of the markets, it's best to go in the markets especially when it tanks big time like last week 7%!, if u can afford 10 lots buy in fractions each time the markets tanks..

picking up shares at a bargain..in fact anything at a bargain should be ingrained in an investors mind..

why pay high for something which will not be worth its value cos its dictated by the forces of dd & ss..

and one more thing...don't need to monitor ur stocks if you are a long term investor.. cos when the bulls come raging back..u'll know it..and that's the time to dispose..
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HLJHLJ
Veteran
13-Oct-2008 00:50     
 
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You were a fund manager? Must learn from you then. I'm quite new in this.

In your article, is it right time to go in now (slowly)? Or exit? The article seems to suggest both! Puzzled me.

Another thing is that will this be a V shape recovery. Or a L shape? or U shape?
Possible to be a V shape if all the things are in place with co-ordinated effort from the world.
never know. If V shape and we are waiting, there is a possibility that we can miss it.
I think it is better to nibble along the way, anyway, it is quite low now. I got a feeling that the rebound will be strong.

Just my opinion.



ozone2002      ( Date: 12-Oct-2008 22:56) Posted:



read words in bold...n act on it!!!
INVESTING IN STOCKS AND PROPERTY
Time to exit, not enter, markets
HAVING made a living as a fund manager and trader for the past 25 years, I have seen the general investing public hurt numerous times when they invest aggressively near the peak of a bubble, whether in stocks or property.

Retail investors should adopt a very long-term horizon to benefit from the stock and property markets.

The starting point of major stock investment or purchasing a property for investment is important. Always try to start major investments during a recession, a global market crisis, a banking crisis or when nobody is interested in stocks, like during the Sars period.

The art of investing can be broken down into three quantitative variables of time, price and size. Investors should pick a 'terrible' environment/time when prices are distressed and commit big (but definitely without leverage).

The opposite is also true. In a very bullish, 'good' environment/time with high prices everywhere, investors should reduce the size of investments and ensure that whatever is outstanding is getting smaller and smaller.

Forget about wanting to liquidate all investments at the top of the market. It is an impossible task.

The basic idea is to invest aggressively (without leverage) near the bottom and get out when markets are euphoric, like now, even if they could go higher and carry on longer.

Global imbalances are currently at an extreme, making the environment ripe for a market crisis like Oct 19, 1987.

Markets (individual share and property) will go up and down over a long period of time, although the general stock index hides this truth as new, strong shares always replace old, declining shares over the years, giving you a misguided view that the index always heads much higher over time.

As Singapore markets become globalised with much foreign participation, Singaporeans would do well to be patient and courageous by investing near the bottom of the down cycle and selling to foreigners near the top of the up cycle and repeating this process.

If you have missed the huge bull market, that's just too bad. Now is not the time to jump in aggressively as the risks are increasing exponentially.

Bull and bear markets always repeat themselves, just like summer and winter. Be very patient and do your homework.

You do not need to be a genius to make money in the markets. You need common sense, discipline and a clear long-term workable plan, without which the markets are like a hot fire and will burn fingers.

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SupremeA
Veteran
12-Oct-2008 23:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		if it stops there v good le

singaporegal      ( Date: 12-Oct-2008 21:24) Posted:



The next support level (from Fibonacci retracements) is at the 1850 level. 

Let's hope it doesn't come to that....  
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ozone2002
Supreme
12-Oct-2008 22:56     
 
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read words in bold...n act on it!!!
INVESTING IN STOCKS AND PROPERTY
Time to exit, not enter, markets
HAVING made a living as a fund manager and trader for the past 25 years, I have seen the general investing public hurt numerous times when they invest aggressively near the peak of a bubble, whether in stocks or property.

Retail investors should adopt a very long-term horizon to benefit from the stock and property markets.

The starting point of major stock investment or purchasing a property for investment is important. Always try to start major investments during a recession, a global market crisis, a banking crisis or when nobody is interested in stocks, like during the Sars period.

The art of investing can be broken down into three quantitative variables of time, price and size. Investors should pick a 'terrible' environment/time when prices are distressed and commit big (but definitely without leverage).

The opposite is also true. In a very bullish, 'good' environment/time with high prices everywhere, investors should reduce the size of investments and ensure that whatever is outstanding is getting smaller and smaller.

Forget about wanting to liquidate all investments at the top of the market. It is an impossible task.

The basic idea is to invest aggressively (without leverage) near the bottom and get out when markets are euphoric, like now, even if they could go higher and carry on longer.

Global imbalances are currently at an extreme, making the environment ripe for a market crisis like Oct 19, 1987.

Markets (individual share and property) will go up and down over a long period of time, although the general stock index hides this truth as new, strong shares always replace old, declining shares over the years, giving you a misguided view that the index always heads much higher over time.

As Singapore markets become globalised with much foreign participation, Singaporeans would do well to be patient and courageous by investing near the bottom of the down cycle and selling to foreigners near the top of the up cycle and repeating this process.

If you have missed the huge bull market, that's just too bad. Now is not the time to jump in aggressively as the risks are increasing exponentially.

Bull and bear markets always repeat themselves, just like summer and winter. Be very patient and do your homework.

You do not need to be a genius to make money in the markets. You need common sense, discipline and a clear long-term workable plan, without which the markets are like a hot fire and will burn fingers.
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Livermore
Master
12-Oct-2008 22:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		My guess is 1800 is likely to be broken

novena_33      ( Date: 12-Oct-2008 21:48) Posted:

i dont think 1800 is a strong support..... i hope im wrong.....
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ozone2002
Supreme
12-Oct-2008 22:28     
 
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any rally in the next coming days presents a put warrant opportunity play..

or for those long term investors -

to pick up good quality sharing with recurring dividends..slow accumulation..

slow n steady wins the race :)
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paperless
Senior
12-Oct-2008 21:51     
 
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Refering to TA/FA are totally futile in the extreme time.

It is about the phases in nutural cycle, which phase of nutural life cycle an active object live.

Just like nomatter how healthier someone are, by the time

clock's ringing, he/she still has to leave and gone.. regardless what age

he/she is.. what gender he/she is.. how wealthy/poverty he/she is..
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novena_33
Veteran
12-Oct-2008 21:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		i dont think 1800 is a strong support..... i hope im wrong.....
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singaporegal
Supreme
12-Oct-2008 21:24     
 
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Yells: "Female TA nut"
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The next support level (from Fibonacci retracements) is at the 1850 level. 

Let's hope it doesn't come to that....  
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investsgx
Member
12-Oct-2008 01:17     
 
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This year suppose to be a marine play year but the party end too early.

http://investsgx.blogspot.com/2008/10/edge-12-oct.html
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