ha ha where got support level!!!!

All analysts now keeping their mouth closed liao, esp DITI Grp, claimed that by 1H09 STI will hit 1500??????

On this note, some stat board servants gratuities are tied to investment ones, by yr end, their capita will shrink at least xx%. AK collected 80k less while I pensioned on Mar 06.

 The moral of the story is that dun get caught under such crucial env. dun get pressurised, keep cool and relax. Neither giving pressure to families. Hold hands together to go thro the hard time to come.

A long story on the abovementioned in yesterday papers. Well considering. God bless.

Excessive fear creating unprecedented severely irrational under value market prices.

Excessive interest rate cut globally.

Excessive bail out fund injection.

Excessive stimulating economic expansion programme.

Excessive Government regulated intervention programme globally.

Tremendous global economic GDP growth at unprecedented rate will soon be on the card.

Etc........

iPunter      ( Date: 27-Oct-2008 17:14) Posted: Ah!... there must always be a reason for a big rally to occur !...

well its actually nothing new.. back then in Feb-Mar 2008 when ppl r still busy speculating and believing the decoupling story.. i already post my view saying that no way China or Asia can decouple and China or India are not able to make up for the fall in demand from US and Europe..

not surprise that the chinese govt still say that their economy is fundamental strong and able to weather thru the crisis. they are relatively new to this new capitalism world and they still yet to understand fully the true power of market forces. all along their factories and plants are operating at full capacity to meet the high demand from all over the world but now there will be a drastic fall in such demand and most govts will encourage their citizens/corporates to turn inward to their own domestic suppliers and exercise domestic protectism.. these factories and plants can no longer operate at full capacity and u will see major retrenchment going on which will hit their domestic consumption.. and the spiraling down effect goes on.. So much so on the macro picture, if you look deeper into the financial reports of these chinese coys, most of them are highly geared and operating on cashflow turnover.. when the business volume is high and revenue keep coming in, they are able to post 100-300% earning.. but now expecting the demand to fall and big drop in their revenue, these coys will have problem meeting their cashflow for loan turnover etc and i expect to see more of such coys going into bankruptcy in 3-6mths time when the full-blown effect is felt by everyone. as of now, ppl r still feeling "rich" and hence yet to really tighten their spending. when retrenchment and paycut kick in, we will then see the full effect of this turmoil.. likewise is going to happen in singapore, if you realise our govt has started to chance their stance on our economic outlook asking all singaporeans to be prepare for a prolong recession of 3-5yrs. looking the way our govt work, if they say 3-5yrs, it probably going to be much worse and longer..

seems like a v gloomy picture i painted but hey at times we have to be realistic and face up to reality. traders can still trade cautiously to eat their kopi $$ while the mkt is still alive and kicking, those working as employees brace up and work hard to keep your job, those jobless be realistic and make do with any jobs available (i hv heard of recent graduates not able to find a job since May as many r still v unrealistic asking for high starting pay, job mkt is gonna be v competitive soon when more graduates r on the street fighting for the same limited positions and employers will normally go for fresh grads as they r young and cheaper to hire) and lastly those uninvested, dun think so much of entering the mkt now or anytime soon... we arent seeing any bottoming anytime soon.. and the road of recovery will be yrs away.. y get ur $$ struck now while u can get stocks that u like at a much cheaper price later on.. and more imptly none of us will know if our job r secure and if we will need that $$$ anytime soon..

Below is my previous post dated way back.. stock mkt is not as forward looking as it was before.. hence we have to be more forward looking and anticipate where the mkt is heading..

Arbitrager Member

Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors   /   Posted: 22-Feb-2008 13:11      4Go to Message

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Well said robbie.. I fully agree with you.. Singapore all along has been a price-taker.. so it highly influenced by other economies... Asia decoupling is just another excuse for the traders to push up the mkt.. though i agree india and china are big and will continue to grow probably at a lower rate.. but its absurd to say they can immediately fill up the demand vacuum created by a serious slowdown of US. It take china and india a generation to totally change the current high propensity of saving population to become another consumer spending economy like US. India and China by and large are still major net exporters.. so it impossible to decouple from US. the more ppl try to push up or hold the mkt, the worse the mkt will crash land... now too much cheap $$ and ppl jus received bonuses.. once all these r gone.. that's it.. and i see this coming.. in the world history.. i nv see any stock mkt bull run despite economy is in recession... F1, IR and YOG are intiatives by govt to keep the economy going.. good effort there.. but then all these hipps r short-lived.. and if overall global economy is bad, wat make u think ppl still wan to travel and spend on such things.. imagine yourself only can barely make ends meets.. will u still go for a trip to see olympic or F1 race? Well, for sure, i wouldn't.. so jus some tinkers to think over..

rogue's right actually. the pic from the US/UK/ASEAN side is clear. for me now, the main bogeyman is china. all the more so because their leaders do not seem to have an accurate picture of what's happening on the ground. THey concluded their recent party meeting with the feel-good statements about china's economy growing along swimmingly and domestic market doing well. (-_-").

those thinking that china can save the world should think twice. even PM Lee already said in today's papers that the china domestic market cannot make up for the shortfalll in the US/UK market.

ppl with china sources will also know some things on the ground that their leaders have not yet realised (or realised, but due to the 'face' mentality, do not want to admit: as with sars, the melamine scandal, etcetc): factories are closing by the day in china, and property prices in some areas have dropped by 50% as of the last year.

Moreover, china may have lots of foreign reserves, and a much-vaunted QDII fund coming out, which a lot are hoping will 'save the world'. We should note here though that china's fund managers are inexperienced compared to their foreign counterparts. so what you're likely to see is foreign managers issuing buy calls, then dumping onto the china managers, and leaving them to hold the baby globally. the collapse of the SSE from its peak of 5k+ should already highlight to many the inexperience of Chinese fund managers here.

you don't need china to fail: you only need it to grow at single digits for the next few years, and that will drag the rest of the world down, because everyone has factored in that china will grow in double-digits for the next few years.

in other words, the red flags are already up.

4000 was an estimate I gave previously. I don't believe in accurate application of template in mkt where people buys and sells randomly. If we are able to achieve +/- 10% guesstimates, I believe we are at the top of many investors already.

All those figures I mentioned still subject to external forces from the region and the world. We are afterall an export oriented economy. If the US or Europe sneezes, I am sure we are going to catch a cold. 

Basically watch out for the local banks, Properties, Singtel and F&N. They alone contribute almost half of STI. If any of these sectors pull themselves out from the plunge, I am sure STI will be lifted somehow. Cheers!